Holyhead Hotspur face Newtown AFC in a fixture that the model sees as a likely away win, with a 46% chance of a Newtown victory, 29% for a Hotspur win and 25% for a draw. The expected total goals hover at 3.2, pointing to a high-scoring encounter, yet the most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw, carrying an 11.5% probability. Holyhead’s home form shows a solid average of 2.22 goals scored and 1.11 conceded against similar opposition, while Newtown’s away record is stark, averaging no goals scored and conceding 3.33. The model’s selections lean heavily on low-scoring outcomes: Under 7.5 (98.4%), Under 6.5 (95.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.8%), Under 5.5 (90.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (89.6%), Away +2 handicap (86.6%), Home under 2.5 goals (83.8%) and Over 1.5 (83.3%). These choices reflect the defensive disparity and the expectation that the match will stay within modest goal limits.
Holyhead Hotspur| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.57 | 1.53 | 2.06 | 1.44 | 0.83 | 1.67 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 1.14 | 1.57 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 0.67 | 1.67 |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.58 | 1.42 | 2.20 | 1.20 | 0.89 | 1.67 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 2.25 | 2.00 | 2.25 | 2.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
Newtown AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.77 | 1.53 | 2.00 | 1.56 | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| vs Stronger (18) | 1.72 | 1.33 | 2.00 | 1.62 | 1.50 | 1.10 |
| vs Similar (9) | 1.22 | 1.78 | 1.67 | 1.33 | 0.33 | 2.67 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 3.67 | 2.00 | 3.00 | 2.00 | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
| Newtown AFC goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 1.9% |
| 1 | 5.1% | 12% | 9.4% | 5.5% | 2.4% |
| 2 | 4.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 1.6% |
| 3 | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
Holyhead Hotspur| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 0.70 | 1.06 | 0.78 | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.71 | 0.86 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.33 | 1.33 |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.95 | 0.53 | 1.20 | 0.70 | 0.67 | 0.33 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 0.75 | 1.25 | 0.75 | 1.25 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Newtown AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.70 | 0.88 | 0.69 | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| vs Stronger (18) | 0.89 | 0.56 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| vs Similar (9) | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.67 | 0.67 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
Holyhead Hotspur| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.83 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.25 | 1.08 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.43 | 0.71 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.63 | 0.89 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.22 | 1.33 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 1.50 | 0.75 | 1.50 | 0.75 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Newtown AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 0.83 | 1.12 | 0.88 | 0.79 | 0.79 |
| vs Stronger (18) | 0.83 | 0.78 | 1.00 | 0.88 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| vs Similar (9) | 0.89 | 0.78 | 1.17 | 0.83 | 0.33 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 2.00 | 1.33 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 | 98.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 HT goals | 98.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 2H goals | 96.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 6.5 | 96.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 95.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 2H goals | 95.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 HT goals | 95.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 | 91.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 89.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 1.5 HT goals | 88.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away +2 handicap | 88.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 2.5 HT goals | 87.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 1.5 HT goals | 86.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 85.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 1.5 2H goals | 84.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away over 0.5 goals | 82.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 81.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 4.5 | 80.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 2.5 2H goals | 80.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 0.5 2H goals | 78.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 1.5 2H goals | 77.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Away | 74.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 74.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +2 handicap | 73.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Draw or Away | 72.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away +1 handicap | 72.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 72.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 0.5 HT goals | 70.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 25/10/25 | A | 1-0 |
Holyhead Hotspur| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 21/08/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 15/08/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 08/08/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 31/07/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 5-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 31/03/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 0-1 |
Newtown AFC| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 28/08/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 15/08/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 08/08/26 | H | 5-0 | |
| 02/08/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 08/04/26 | A | 6-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 2-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |