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Hradec Králové vs Pardubice Result & Analysis

Date: 26/07/2026
Time: 18:00
Final 2-1
Hradec Králové
Hradec Králové
Vs
49%
29%
22%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Pardubice
Pardubice
Czech-Republic: Czech Liga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Hradec Králové a 49% win probability against Pardubice in the Czech-Republic: Czech Liga on 2026-07-26, with 29% for the draw and 22% for Pardubice. The model estimates around 2.4 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (27%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (13.6%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 21.5 fouls (79%), Under 3.5 (78%).

Results analysis

Hradec Králové finished 2-1 against Pardubice (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 49% home win, 29% draw and 22% away win. Picks that landed: Over 21.5 fouls (79%), Under 3.5 (78%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Hradec Králové win✓ Hit
49.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Pardubice win✗ Miss
22.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Hradec KrálovéHradec Králové

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W31W21W10W13L11D10W31W12L10WH·BOH05/04A·SLO11/04H·SLA19/04A·TEP25/04A·PLZ03/05A·FK 10/05H·SLO13/05H·SLA17/05A·SPA24/05A·TRO23/07
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.031.640.711.311.31
vs Stronger (9)1.441.781.751.501.202.00
vs Similar (12)1.420.921.670.671.171.17
vs Weaker (9)1.560.441.500.001.600.80
Clean sheet %40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Pardubice) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PardubicePardubice

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L11D21W02L20W21W10W31W21W13LA·SLO21/02H·TEP28/02A·KAR08/03A·MLA14/03A·DUK04/04H·SIG12/04A·PLZ19/04H·ZLI25/04A·KAR02/05H·KAR10/05
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.431.131.471.531.40
vs Stronger (18)1.391.670.891.781.891.56
vs Similar (12)1.251.081.501.001.001.17
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Hradec Králové) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%27%10%020%127%221%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.0%
Under 1.5
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
42.5%
Under 2.5
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.7%
Under 3.5
78.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.3%
No
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
1-0
12.4%
0-0
10.5%
2-0
10.0%
2-1 ✓
9.1%
0-1
7.2%
1-2
5.6%
3-0
4.9%
Hradec Králové goals ↓
Pardubice goals →
01234
010%7.2%3.8%1.2%0.3%
112%14%5.6%1.7%0.4%
210.0%9.1%4.1%1.3%0.3%
34.9%4.5%2.0%0.6%0.1%
41.8%1.6%0.7%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hradec Králové goals (down), columns = Pardubice goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Slavia Praha
2.35
Sparta Praha
2.15
Plzen
1.80
Hradec Králové
1.60
FK Jablonec
1.57
Sigma Olomouc
1.53
Pardubice
1.38
Slovan Liberec
1.31
Bohemians 1905
1.22
Teplice
1.20
Zlin
1.17
Zbrojovka Brno
1.15
Mlada Boleslav
1.14
Slovácko
0.97
Baník Ostrava
0.95
Artis
0.00
Hradec Králové is 0.23 points better than Pardubice in terms of average points per game (1.60 vs 1.38).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Slavia Praha
2.18
Sparta Praha
1.94
Plzen
1.71
Hradec Králové
1.43
Mlada Boleslav
1.40
Sigma Olomouc
1.32
Pardubice
1.31
Slovan Liberec
1.29
FK Jablonec
1.29
Zlin
1.23
Teplice
1.14
Zbrojovka Brno
1.13
Baník Ostrava
1.08
Slovácko
1.00
Bohemians 1905
0.91
Artis
0.50
Hradec Králové is 0.12 goals better than Pardubice in terms of goals scored per game (1.43 vs 1.31).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Slavia Praha
0.82
Sparta Praha
1.00
Plzen
1.09
Slovan Liberec
1.11
Sigma Olomouc
1.12
Hradec Králové
1.17
Teplice
1.20
Bohemians 1905
1.22
Baník Ostrava
1.32
FK Jablonec
1.34
Slovácko
1.41
Pardubice
1.56
Zlin
1.60
Mlada Boleslav
1.63
Zbrojovka Brno
1.69
Artis
3.50
Hradec Králové is 0.39 goals better than Pardubice in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.56).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Sparta Praha
64%
Slavia Praha
58%
Plzen
56%
Mlada Boleslav
55%
Baník Ostrava
52%
Slovácko
52%
Sigma Olomouc
51%
FK Jablonec
49%
Slovan Liberec
47%
Bohemians 1905
46%
Pardubice
46%
Hradec Králové
45%
Teplice
42%
Zlin
40%
Artis
30%
Hradec Králové is 0.6 percentage points worse than Pardubice in terms of average possession (45% vs 46%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Hradec KrálovéHradec Králové

For 2.8 · Against 6.5 · Total 9.3

🚩 Corners

120174865273821021041445812119111212549A·SPAH·SLAH·SLOA·FK A·PLZA·TEPH·SLAA·SLOH·BOHH·BAN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.3

🟨 Cards

6021322211115124233342216345A·TROA·SPAH·SLOA·FK A·PLZA·TEPH·SLAA·SLOH·BOHH·BAN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 12.2 · Total 23.3

⚠️ Fouls

3401310111014208913615151217121061571023213417193029222117A·SPAH·SLAH·SLOA·FK A·PLZA·TEPH·SLAA·SLOH·BOHH·BAN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

PardubicePardubice

For 4.6 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.6

🚩 Corners

120564734473674513962641111711911612810H·KARA·KARH·ZLIA·PLZH·SIGA·DUKA·MLAA·KARH·TEPA·SLO
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.6

🟨 Cards

702411121222421342116213463731H·KARA·KARH·ZLIA·PLZH·SIGA·DUKA·KARH·TEPA·SLOH·FK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.4 · Against 13.8 · Total 28.2

⚠️ Fouls

400152591215191712178181414111512111713840213429253225272821H·KARA·KARH·ZLIA·PLZH·SIGA·DUKA·MLAA·KARH·TEPA·SLO
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Hradec KrálovéHradec Králové

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.69.89.53.23.72.823.323.623.0
vs Stronger (12)9.511.88.13.73.83.622.221.522.6
vs Similar (22)9.99.210.73.23.72.723.524.722.0
vs Weaker (16)9.49.59.22.93.62.123.823.024.6
% over line47%50%44%34%50%19%63%58%68%
% under line53%50%56%66%50%81%37%42%32%
This opponent (Pardubice) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PardubicePardubice

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.810.49.24.34.44.224.724.225.2
vs Stronger (27)10.311.29.44.74.94.424.724.524.9
vs Similar (22)9.49.89.03.93.93.824.723.825.6
vs Weaker (1)7.07.0-2.02.0-26.026.0-
% over line52%52%52%50%56%44%70%68%72%
% under line48%48%48%50%44%56%30%32%28%
This opponent (Hradec Králové) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Mlada Boleslav
11.3
Slavia Praha
10.9
Zbrojovka Brno
10.9
Bohemians 1905
10.5
Slovácko
10.4
Slovan Liberec
10.1
Artis
10.0
Baník Ostrava
9.9
FK Jablonec
9.9
Pardubice
9.8
Plzen
9.6
Hradec Králové
9.6
Sparta Praha
9.4
Sigma Olomouc
9.4
Zlin
9.4
Teplice
9.0

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Slovan Liberec
5.3
Plzen
5.2
Sparta Praha
5.1
Slavia Praha
4.5
Pardubice
4.3
Teplice
4.3
Sigma Olomouc
4.3
Baník Ostrava
4.3
Mlada Boleslav
4.1
FK Jablonec
4.1
Zlin
4.1
Slovácko
3.9
Bohemians 1905
3.7
Hradec Králové
3.6
Zbrojovka Brno
3.6
Artis
2.5

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Slovan Liberec
28.8
Teplice
28.3
Zlin
28.2
Sigma Olomouc
26.5
FK Jablonec
25.9
Slovácko
25.7
Slavia Praha
25.6
Plzen
25.5
Mlada Boleslav
24.8
Pardubice
24.7
Baník Ostrava
24.4
Sparta Praha
23.9
Artis
23.5
Hradec Králové
23.3
Zbrojovka Brno
22.5
Bohemians 1905
22.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
50.3%
Under 9.5
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
61.9%
Under 3.5
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
78.6%
Under 21.5
21.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 21.5 fouls78.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.578.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SP (38)
€123m
SP (57)
€97m
PLZ (28)
€57m
SO (32)
€30m
BO (31)
€19m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SP (21)
€45m
SP (10)
€27m
PLZ (8)
€15m
SO (10)
€7m
BO (10)
€5m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SP (8)
€35m
SP (14)
€28m
PLZ (8)
€22m
SO (9)
€10m
BO (9)
€7m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SP (20)
€61m
SP (22)
€24m
PLZ (12)
€20m
SO (13)
€12m
BO (12)
€7m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Hradec Králové vs Pardubice · H/A from HK
DateH/AGameScore
07/12/25APardubice Vs HK1-0
10/08/25HHK Vs Pardubice1-1
01/02/25HHK Vs Pardubice3-0
24/08/24APardubice Vs HK2-1
09/03/24HHK Vs Pardubice2-0
01/10/23APardubice Vs HK1-1
22/04/23APardubice Vs HK1-0
29/10/22HHK Vs Pardubice1-3

Hradec KrálovéHradec Králové

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/07/26ATromso Vs HK0-1
24/05/26ASparta Praha Vs HK2-1
17/05/26HHK Vs Slavia Praha3-1
13/05/26HHK Vs Slovan Liberec1-0
10/05/26AFK Jablonec Vs HK1-1
03/05/26APlzen Vs HK3-1
25/04/26ATeplice Vs HK0-1
19/04/26HHK Vs Slavia Praha2-1
11/04/26ASlovácko Vs HK1-3
05/04/26HHK Vs Bohemians 19052-0

PardubicePardubice

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/05/26HPAR Vs Karviná1-3
02/05/26AKarviná Vs PAR1-2
25/04/26HPAR Vs Zlin3-1
19/04/26APlzen Vs PAR0-1
12/04/26HPAR Vs Sigma Olomouc2-1
04/04/26ADukla Praha Vs PAR0-2
14/03/26AMlada Boleslav Vs PAR2-0
08/03/26AKarviná Vs PAR1-2
28/02/26HPAR Vs Teplice1-1
21/02/26ASlovácko Vs PAR2-0

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Hradec Králové
Hradec Králové
Czech-Republic: Czech Liga
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWLW1.60
HomeWWWWW1.92
AwayWLDLW1.31
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%54%38%
AVG goals2.542.212.85
Over 1.5 %70%71%69%
Over 2.5 %46%38%54%
Over 3.5 %24%17%31%
Scored1.421.421.42
Conceded1.120.791.42
BTTS48%42%54%
Clean Sheet34%50%19%
Corners9.639.759.52
Cards3.584.193.04
Pardubice
Pardubice
Czech-Republic: Czech Liga
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWL1.14
HomeLDWWL1.32
AwayWLWWW0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%36%28%
AVG goals2.662.482.84
Over 1.5 %80%80%80%
Over 2.5 %48%44%52%
Over 3.5 %24%20%28%
Scored1.041.041.04
Conceded1.621.441.80
BTTS50%56%44%
Clean Sheet16%20%12%
Corners9.8210.409.24
Cards4.354.364.33

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Slavia PrahaSlavia Praha410
75%
2.5
123+9
3.8
100%
75%
50%
9.8
25%
3.5
50%
27.8
100%
123
2735613.00.8
58%
2FK JablonecFK Jablonec39
100%
3.0
51+4
2.0
67%
33%
0%
8.7
33%
3.3
33%
31.0
100%
0
0001.70.3
49%
3Mlada BoleslavMlada Boleslav48
50%
2.0
95+4
3.5
100%
50%
50%
11.0
50%
3.2
50%
25.5
75%
0
0002.21.2
55%
4Slovan LiberecSlovan Liberec47
50%
1.8
53+2
2.0
50%
25%
25%
9.0
25%
7.0
100%
26.2
75%
0
0001.20.8
47%
5Hradec KrálovéHradec Králové37
67%
2.3
42+2
2.0
67%
67%
0%
9.3
33%
3.7
67%
25.0
67%
0
0001.30.7
45%
6Sigma OlomoucSigma Olomouc47
50%
1.8
76+1
3.2
100%
100%
25%
8.8
50%
1.8
0%
26.8
50%
30
710121.81.5
51%
7TepliceTeplice47
50%
1.8
1010+0
5.0
75%
75%
75%
11.8
75%
5.2
50%
25.0
75%
0
0002.52.5
42%
8Sparta PrahaSparta Praha46
50%
1.5
87+1
3.8
100%
75%
75%
12.2
50%
4.0
67%
24.0
75%
97
4528242.01.8
64%
9Baník OstravaBaník Ostrava46
50%
1.5
36-3
2.2
50%
50%
25%
9.8
25%
3.5
25%
26.2
75%
19
5770.81.5
52%
10PlzenPlzen45
25%
1.2
1011-1
5.2
100%
75%
75%
7.5
0%
4.8
75%
25.8
75%
57
1522202.52.8
56%
11Zbrojovka BrnoZbrojovka Brno34
33%
1.3
43+1
2.3
67%
33%
33%
10.0
33%
5.0
100%
20.0
33%
0
0001.31.0
-
12Bohemians 1905Bohemians 190534
33%
1.3
33+0
2.0
67%
33%
33%
11.7
67%
3.3
33%
28.0
67%
0
0001.01.0
46%
13ArtisArtis41
0%
0.2
48-4
3.0
75%
50%
25%
8.2
25%
3.8
50%
26.0
75%
0
0001.02.0
30%
14PardubicePardubice41
0%
0.2
37-4
2.5
100%
50%
0%
9.0
25%
2.8
25%
29.8
100%
0
0000.81.8
46%
15SlováckoSlovácko41
0%
0.2
39-6
3.0
75%
50%
25%
7.2
25%
3.5
50%
33.5
100%
0
0000.82.2
52%
16ZlinZlin40
0%
0.0
39-6
3.0
75%
50%
50%
8.0
0%
3.2
25%
30.5
75%
0
0000.82.2
40%
Czech-Republic: Czech Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Czech-Republic: Czech Liga stats & trends →

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