Huddersfield are tipped to win, a 52% chance that the home side will come away with the victory, while a 26% chance of a draw and 21% for Sheffield Weds. The expected total goals hover at 2.7, with the most likely total being two goals at a 26% probability. The single most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw, with a 12.6% chance. Huddersfield, playing at home against a similarly-sized opponent, average 1.85 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game. Sheffield Weds, on the road, average only 0.5 goals scored but concede 2.5 against similar opposition. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.0%), Under 6.5 (97.9%), Under 5.5 (94.3%), Home +2 handicap (91.9%), Away under 2.5 goals (91.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (90.8%) and Under 4.5 (86.3%). Huddersfield’s recent unbeaten run of five games, including a 2-1 win over Cambridge, contrasts with Sheffield Weds’ recent 7-2 victory over Bromley, setting the stage for a likely tight contest.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Huddersfield win
50.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sheffield Weds win
22.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Huddersfield
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.23
2.00
1.13
1.27
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.50
1.32
1.93
1.21
1.07
1.43
vs Weaker (2)
3.50
0.00
3.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheffield Weds) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sheffield Weds
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.77
1.00
1.47
0.53
2.07
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
1.60
0.33
1.83
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (20)
1.00
1.85
1.44
1.22
0.64
2.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-21pp vs league)
This opponent (Huddersfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.1%
Under 1.5
21.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
53.2%
Under 2.5
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
30.9%
Under 3.5
69.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.5%
No
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%
2-1
9.7%
1-0
9.3%
2-0
8.9%
0-0
7.2%
1-2
6.2%
3-1
5.6%
0-1
5.5%
Huddersfield goals ↓
Sheffield Weds goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.2%
5.5%
3.6%
1.3%
0.4%
1
9.3%
12%
6.2%
2.2%
0.6%
2
8.9%
9.7%
5.3%
1.9%
0.5%
3
5.1%
5.6%
3.0%
1.1%
0.3%
4
2.2%
2.4%
1.3%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Huddersfield goals (down), columns = Sheffield Weds goals (across).
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đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leicester
2.34
Stockport
1.69
Luton
1.61
Bradford
1.60
Plymouth
1.59
Oxford
1.58
Stevenage
1.56
Sheffield Weds
1.49
Huddersfield
1.46
Mansfield
1.41
Milton Keynes Dons
1.38
Reading
1.37
Wycombe
1.37
Blackpool
1.30
Doncaster
1.30
Barnsley
1.28
Wigan
1.22
Cambridge
1.21
Burton
1.17
Notts County
1.17
AFC Wimbledon
1.15
Peterboro
1.15
Leyton Orient
1.13
Bromley
1.08
Huddersfield is 0.03 points worse than Sheffield Weds in terms of average points per game (1.46 vs 1.49).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Leicester
2.24
Plymouth
1.63
Huddersfield
1.61
Stockport
1.53
Oxford
1.51
Wycombe
1.50
Barnsley
1.48
Luton
1.48
Sheffield Weds
1.42
Reading
1.39
Peterboro
1.39
Mansfield
1.35
Milton Keynes Dons
1.32
Leyton Orient
1.28
Bradford
1.21
Blackpool
1.17
Cambridge
1.15
Notts County
1.12
AFC Wimbledon
1.11
Doncaster
1.09
Burton
1.09
Wigan
1.07
Bromley
1.03
Stevenage
1.02
Huddersfield is 0.18 goals better than Sheffield Weds in terms of goals scored per game (1.61 vs 1.42).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Leicester
0.77
Stevenage
1.02
Mansfield
1.09
Bradford
1.10
Oxford
1.14
Sheffield Weds
1.21
Luton
1.22
Wycombe
1.26
Wigan
1.26
Stockport
1.27
Milton Keynes Dons
1.30
Reading
1.30
Burton
1.30
Plymouth
1.37
Huddersfield
1.39
Blackpool
1.41
Peterboro
1.48
Cambridge
1.49
Doncaster
1.50
Notts County
1.54
Leyton Orient
1.54
AFC Wimbledon
1.57
Barnsley
1.59
Bromley
1.67
Huddersfield is 0.18 goals worse than Sheffield Weds in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 1.21).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Huddersfield or Draw
77.1%
Avg Implied -
51%
26%
23%
covers Huddersfield + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Huddersfield or Sheffield Weds
73.9%
Avg Implied -
51%
26%
23%
covers Huddersfield + Sheffield Weds
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Sheffield Weds
49.1%
Avg Implied -
51%
26%
23%
covers Draw + Sheffield Weds
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Huddersfield over/under 0.5
Over
82.0%
Under
18.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Huddersfield over/under 1.5
Over
51.2%
Under
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Huddersfield over/under 2.5
Over
24.7%
Under
75.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Huddersfield over/under 3.5
Over
9.6%
Under
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheffield Weds over/under 0.5
Over
66.3%
Under
33.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheffield Weds over/under 1.5
Over
29.7%
Under
70.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheffield Weds over/under 2.5
Over
9.7%
Under
90.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheffield Weds over/under 3.5
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Huddersfield, so a minus line means Huddersfield give that many goals of a start and Sheffield Weds receive them. At -1, Huddersfield must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Huddersfield win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Huddersfield)
Huddersfield -2
12.5%
Draw -2
15.9%
Sheffield Weds +2
71.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Huddersfield)
Huddersfield -1
28.4%
Draw -1
22.5%
Sheffield Weds +1
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Huddersfield)
Huddersfield +1
77.1%
Draw +1
13.9%
Sheffield Weds -1
9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Huddersfield)
Huddersfield +2
90.9%
Draw +2
6.4%
Sheffield Weds -2
2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Huddersfield
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.43
0.80
0.60
0.47
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.57
0.46
0.71
0.64
0.43
0.29
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheffield Weds) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sheffield Weds
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.77
0.40
0.33
0.33
1.20
vs Stronger (10)
0.10
1.00
0.17
0.83
0.00
1.25
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.65
0.56
0.00
0.45
1.18
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Huddersfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Huddersfield over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Huddersfield over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Huddersfield over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheffield Weds over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheffield Weds over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheffield Weds over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Huddersfield
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.80
1.20
0.53
0.80
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.93
0.86
1.21
0.57
0.64
1.14
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheffield Weds) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sheffield Weds
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
1.00
0.60
1.13
0.20
0.87
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
0.60
0.17
1.00
0.25
0.00
vs Similar (20)
0.50
1.20
0.89
1.22
0.18
1.18
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Huddersfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Huddersfield over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Huddersfield over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Huddersfield over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheffield Weds over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheffield Weds over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheffield Weds over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Huddersfield
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
J. Taylor75%
B. Radulović33%
R. Balker25%
D. Kasumu0%
Ashley Fletcher0%
Ryan Ledson0%
M. Wallace0%
M. Harness0%
Ilias Bronkhorst0%
D. Sanches Fernandes0%
I. Bowat0%
M. Young0%
Jay Smith-Sway0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
D. Kasumu33%
M. Wallace33%
B. Radulović33%
Ryan Ledson25%
Ashley Fletcher0%
M. Harness0%
R. Balker0%
Ilias Bronkhorst0%
J. Taylor0%
D. Sanches Fernandes0%
I. Bowat0%
M. Young0%
Jay Smith-Sway0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ryan Ledson50%
B. Radulović33%
D. Sanches Fernandes25%
D. Kasumu0%
Ashley Fletcher0%
M. Wallace0%
M. Harness0%
R. Balker0%
Ilias Bronkhorst0%
J. Taylor0%
I. Bowat0%
M. Young0%
Jay Smith-Sway0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
J. Taylor75%
D. Sanches Fernandes50%
Ashley Fletcher25%
Ryan Ledson25%
M. Harness25%
I. Bowat25%
D. Kasumu0%
M. Wallace0%
R. Balker0%
Ilias Bronkhorst0%
B. Radulović0%
M. Young0%
Jay Smith-Sway0%
Sheffield Weds
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
J. Lowe60%
Louie Barry40%
C. Slattery25%
Mason Paul James Burstow20%
G. Otegbayo20%
Ricardo Santos0%
Y. Valery0%
Liam Cooper0%
B. Bannan0%
L. Palmer0%
Joe Lumley0%
B. Mitchell0%
R. James0%
Max Lowe0%
Sil Swinkels0%
K. Morrison0%
Harry Gray0%
Jarvis Thornton0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
C. Slattery50%
Jarvis Thornton33%
B. Mitchell25%
B. Bannan20%
Ricardo Santos0%
Y. Valery0%
Liam Cooper0%
L. Palmer0%
Joe Lumley0%
J. Lowe0%
R. James0%
Max Lowe0%
Louie Barry0%
Sil Swinkels0%
Mason Paul James Burstow0%
K. Morrison0%
G. Otegbayo0%
Harry Gray0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
B. Bannan40%
C. Slattery25%
K. Morrison25%
J. Lowe20%
Louie Barry20%
Mason Paul James Burstow20%
Ricardo Santos0%
Y. Valery0%
Liam Cooper0%
L. Palmer0%
Joe Lumley0%
B. Mitchell0%
R. James0%
Max Lowe0%
Sil Swinkels0%
G. Otegbayo0%
Harry Gray0%
Jarvis Thornton0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
J. Lowe60%
C. Slattery25%
K. Morrison25%
Louie Barry20%
Mason Paul James Burstow20%
Ricardo Santos0%
Y. Valery0%
Liam Cooper0%
B. Bannan0%
L. Palmer0%
Joe Lumley0%
B. Mitchell0%
R. James0%
Max Lowe0%
Sil Swinkels0%
G. Otegbayo0%
Harry Gray0%
Jarvis Thornton0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (22)
€69m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
BRO (19)
€4m
Huddersfield's squad is €5m less valuable than Sheffield Weds's (€16m vs €21m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (7)
€20m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
Huddersfield's attack is €4m less valuable than Sheffield Weds's (€4m vs €7m).
đź§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (4)
€13m
MKD (6)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
LUT (6)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
Huddersfield's midfield is €2m less valuable than Sheffield Weds's (€4m vs €6m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (11)
€36m
LUT (10)
€12m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
Huddersfield and Sheffield Weds have a similar defence value (both €8m).
England: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →