Hvidovre and Esbjerg are set to clash in a closely contested match, with both teams having shown recent form that suggests they're evenly matched. Hvidovre comes into this game off the back of a win, having beaten Kolding IF 1-0, while Esbjerg has been unbeaten in their last 5, including a 3-2 win over Hillerød.
The model predicts an away win for Esbjerg, with a 37% chance of success. This match is expected to be a high-scoring affair, with an average of 3 goals expected. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 12.3%. Hvidovre has been scoring an average of 1.5 goals at home, while conceding 1.5, against similar opponents. Esbjerg, on the other hand, has been scoring 1.33 goals away, while conceding 1.58, against similar opponents.
The model's selection for this match is an Over 1.5 goals, with an 81.3% chance of success. This selection has a 5% edge, suggesting a slight advantage for the model. The home win percentage is 36%, the draw percentage is 27%, and the away win percentage is 37%.
Results analysis
Hvidovre's 2-1 win over Esbjerg was a major upset, as the home side extended their 2-game winning run. This result defied the model's call, which was for Esbjerg to win away, a selection that had a pre-match probability of 37%. The model's selection was wrong, as Hvidovre secured the win. The model's suggested picks also failed to materialize, with 'Over 1.5' goals hitting, but only with a probability of 81.3%. The model's call was for Esbjerg to win away, a selection that had a pre-match probability of 37%. The actual result was a home win, which had a pre-match probability of 36%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hvidovre win✓ Hit
36.3%
Avg Implied 38.6% · @ 2.38
Edge
-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.46
Betano
2.45
Dafabet
2.41
Marathonbet
2.40
Unibet
2.40
Draw✗ Miss
26.5%
Avg Implied 27.3% · @ 3.36
Edge
-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.52
Betfair
3.50
BetVictor
3.50
Dafabet
3.45
Unibet
3.40
Esbjerg win✗ Miss
37.2%
Avg Implied 34.1% · @ 2.69
Edge
+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.80
Betano
2.77
Bet365
2.75
Superbet
2.75
Dafabet
2.75
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hvidovre
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.17
1.43
1.64
1.25
0.75
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.32
1.11
1.42
1.58
1.25
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Esbjerg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Esbjerg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.30
1.57
1.14
1.50
1.44
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.00
2.00
4.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.32
1.24
1.33
0.83
1.31
1.62
vs Weaker (3)
3.67
0.67
4.00
2.00
3.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Hvidovre) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.3%
@ 1.21+4.7%
Under 1.5
18.7%
@ 3.96-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
888Sport
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.27
Betfair
4.20
BetVictor
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.8%
@ 1.71+3.3%
Under 2.5
42.2%
@ 2.05-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.75
1xBet
1.73
10Bet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
888Sport
1.73
Under
Pinnacle
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Bet365
2.08
Betano
2.07
Marathonbet
2.05
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.4%
@ 2.73+1.5%
Under 3.5
64.6%
@ 1.40-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.83
BetVictor
2.80
888Sport
2.80
10Bet
2.75
Under
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.42
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.6%
@ 1.57+2.7%
No
38.4%
@ 2.24-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.60
BetVictor
1.57
1xBet
1.57
888Sport
1.57
William Hil
1.57
No
Betano
2.30
1xBet
2.26
BetVictor
2.25
Betfair
2.25
William Hil
2.25
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%@ 6.13+5.1%
1-2
8.5%@ 9.05+3.6%
2-1 ✓
8.3%@ 8.38+3.1%
0-1
6.4%@ 9.38+1.7%
2-2
6.3%@ 10.76+2.2%
1-0
6.3%@ 8.78+1.3%
0-0
6.1%@ 11.10+2.1%
0-2
5.7%@ 13.70+2.4%
Hvidovre goals ↓
Esbjerg goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
6.4%
5.7%
2.9%
1.1%
1
6.3%
12%
8.5%
4.3%
1.6%
2
5.5%
8.3%
6.3%
3.2%
1.2%
3
2.7%
4.2%
3.1%
1.6%
0.6%
4
1.0%
1.6%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hvidovre goals (down), columns = Esbjerg goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hvidovre
2.33
Vejle
2.33
Hobro
2.00
Aarhus Fremad
1.50
FC Fredericia
1.50
Vendsyssel FF
1.33
Aalborg
1.33
Kolding IF
1.00
AB Copenhagen
1.00
Hillerød
0.67
Esbjerg
0.67
HB Koge
0.33
Hvidovre is 1.67 points better than Esbjerg in terms of average points per game (2.33 vs 0.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Vejle
2.67
Hillerød
1.67
Hvidovre
1.67
Hobro
1.50
FC Fredericia
1.50
Kolding IF
1.33
AB Copenhagen
1.33
Esbjerg
1.33
Aarhus Fremad
1.17
Vendsyssel FF
1.17
Aalborg
0.83
HB Koge
0.50
Hvidovre is 0.33 goals better than Esbjerg in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Fredericia
0.67
Aarhus Fremad
0.83
Hvidovre
0.83
Aalborg
1.17
AB Copenhagen
1.17
Hobro
1.33
Vendsyssel FF
1.33
Kolding IF
1.50
Vejle
1.67
HB Koge
2.00
Hillerød
2.00
Esbjerg
2.17
Hvidovre is 1.33 goals better than Esbjerg in terms of goals conceded per game (0.83 vs 2.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hvidovre
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.43
0.86
0.50
0.56
0.38
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.68
0.43
0.83
0.50
0.56
0.38
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Esbjerg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Esbjerg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.60
0.64
0.64
0.88
0.56
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
1.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.60
0.52
0.50
0.42
0.69
0.62
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
0.33
2.00
1.00
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Hvidovre) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hvidovre over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hvidovre over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hvidovre over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hvidovre
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.73
0.57
1.14
0.69
0.38
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.64
0.68
0.58
1.08
0.69
0.38
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Esbjerg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Esbjerg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.70
0.93
0.50
0.62
0.88
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.72
0.83
0.42
0.62
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Hvidovre) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hvidovre over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hvidovre over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hvidovre over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
81.3%
1.21
Betano
1.24
888Sport
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Bet365
1.22
+4.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Hvidovre · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tobias Thomsen20%
Lirim Qamili18%
Mads Kaalund14%
Christian Jakobsen13%
Andreas Smed12%
Simon Makienok11%
Jeffrey Adjei-Broni4%
Magnus Fredslund4%
Matti Lund Nielsen0%
Marco Ramkilde0%
Adrian Kappenberger0%
Jonas Gemmer0%
Nikolaj Geertsen0%
Mathias Gehrt0%
Filip Đukić0%
Malte Kiilerich0%
Daniel Stenderup0%
Martin Spelmann0%
Matti Olsen0%
Philip Rejnhold0%
Thomas Jorgensen0%
Marcus Lindberg0%
Ahmed Iljazovski0%
Marc Nielsen0%
Mathias Andreasen0%
Magnus Petersen0%
Marius Papuga0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Philip Rejnhold38%
Jonas Gemmer33%
Nikolaj Geertsen30%
Ahmed Iljazovski21%
Martin Spelmann19%
Christian Jakobsen17%
Magnus Fredslund15%
Lirim Qamili14%
Marcus Lindberg14%
Marc Nielsen14%
Matti Olsen14%
Tobias Thomsen13%
Jeffrey Adjei-Broni13%
Malte Kiilerich11%
Filip Đukić8%
Andreas Smed8%
Mathias Andreasen7%
Thomas Jorgensen7%
Simon Makienok5%
Matti Lund Nielsen0%
Marco Ramkilde0%
Adrian Kappenberger0%
Mads Kaalund0%
Mathias Gehrt0%
Daniel Stenderup0%
Magnus Petersen0%
Marius Papuga0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Magnus Fredslund15%
Christian Jakobsen10%
Marc Nielsen10%
Marcus Lindberg7%
Ahmed Iljazovski7%
Tobias Thomsen7%
Simon Makienok5%
Jeffrey Adjei-Broni4%
Andreas Smed4%
Jonas Gemmer4%
Lirim Qamili4%
Matti Lund Nielsen0%
Marco Ramkilde0%
Adrian Kappenberger0%
Nikolaj Geertsen0%
Mads Kaalund0%
Mathias Gehrt0%
Filip Đukić0%
Malte Kiilerich0%
Daniel Stenderup0%
Martin Spelmann0%
Matti Olsen0%
Philip Rejnhold0%
Thomas Jorgensen0%
Mathias Andreasen0%
Magnus Petersen0%
Marius Papuga0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tobias Thomsen27%
Lirim Qamili21%
Andreas Smed8%
Thomas Jorgensen7%
Simon Makienok5%
Magnus Fredslund4%
Martin Spelmann4%
Christian Jakobsen3%
Matti Lund Nielsen0%
Marco Ramkilde0%
Adrian Kappenberger0%
Jonas Gemmer0%
Nikolaj Geertsen0%
Mads Kaalund0%
Mathias Gehrt0%
Filip Đukić0%
Malte Kiilerich0%
Daniel Stenderup0%
Matti Olsen0%
Philip Rejnhold0%
Marcus Lindberg0%
Ahmed Iljazovski0%
Marc Nielsen0%
Mathias Andreasen0%
Magnus Petersen0%
Marius Papuga0%
Jeffrey Adjei-Broni0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (24)
€10m
VEJ (22)
€9m
FF (17)
€8m
ESB (23)
€7m
HOB (23)
€7m
KI (21)
€6m
HVI (21)
€5m
HK (19)
€5m
HIL (18)
€4m
AF (21)
€3m
VF (3)
€1m
AC (3)
€1m
Hvidovre's squad is €1m less valuable than Esbjerg's (€5m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEJ (7)
€3m
AAL (7)
€2m
ESB (8)
€2m
FF (5)
€2m
HVI (6)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HOB (9)
€2m
HIL (5)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
AF (6)
€1m
VF (1)
€0m
AC (1)
€0m
Hvidovre and Esbjerg have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FF (5)
€3m
VEJ (6)
€2m
HOB (5)
€2m
AAL (5)
€2m
KI (5)
€2m
ESB (6)
€2m
HK (6)
€2m
HVI (6)
€1m
AF (8)
€1m
HIL (5)
€1m
VF (2)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
Hvidovre and Esbjerg have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (12)
€6m
VEJ (9)
€4m
FF (7)
€3m
HOB (9)
€3m
ESB (9)
€3m
HK (8)
€2m
HVI (9)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HIL (8)
€2m
AF (7)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
VF (0)
€0m
Hvidovre and Esbjerg have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Denmark: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: 1. Division stats & trends →