The model predicts a home win for IFK Goteborg over Degerfors IF, with a 46% chance of a home victory, 27% for a draw, and 27% for an away win. This match is expected to be a low-scoring affair with an average of 2.8 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13% chance.
IFK Goteborg has been strong at home, scoring an average of 2 goals and conceding 0 when facing weaker opponents. Degerfors IF, on the other hand, has struggled away from home, scoring 1 goal and conceding 1.9 when facing stronger opponents.
The model's selection for this match is the home win, with a suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals, which has a 77.3% chance of occurring, and an edge of 2%. Other selections include Over 21.5 fouls, with a 75.5% chance, and Under 3.5 goals, with a 70.2% chance and an edge of 2%. The home win percentage is 46%, the draw percentage is 27%, and the away win percentage is 27%.
IFK Goteborg's win extends their run of three consecutive victories, following a 3-2 win over Kalmar FF. The final score was 2-0, confirming the actual result of the match. The model correctly predicted the home win, with a pre-match probability of 46%. The model's selection, home win, was the favourite, and it landed as expected. The model's selection of over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 77.3%, while over 21.5 fouls also came in, with a probability of 75.5%. Under 3.5 goals was another successful selection, with a probability of 70.2%.
IFK Goteborg| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.37 | 1.40 | 1.07 | 1.14 | 1.62 | 1.62 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.17 | 2.17 | 0.50 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 2.50 |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.77 | 1.32 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 2.17 | 1.33 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+3pp vs league) | |||||
Degerfors IF| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.13 | 1.40 | 0.75 | 1.25 | 1.57 | 1.57 |
| vs Stronger (18) | 0.72 | 1.44 | 0.50 | 1.33 | 1.17 | 1.67 |
| vs Similar (12) | 1.75 | 1.33 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1.88 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 10% (-17pp vs league) | |||||
| Degerfors IF goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.6% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 8.9% | 13% | 6.9% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 8.0% | 9.4% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 4.3% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
IFK Goteborg
Degerfors IF
IFK Goteborg| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 11.4 | 12.1 | 10.7 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 26.1 | 26.0 | 26.2 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 11.9 | 10.0 | 13.4 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 28.1 | 30.0 | 26.6 |
| vs Similar (37) | 11.3 | 12.6 | 10.2 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 25.6 | 25.6 | 25.6 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 10.0 | 13.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 25.5 | 17.0 | 34.0 |
| % over line | 64% | 67% | 61% | 52% | 52% | 52% | 82% | 86% | 78% |
| % under line | 36% | 33% | 39% | 48% | 48% | 48% | 18% | 14% | 22% |
Degerfors IF| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.3 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 25.4 | 26.4 | 24.2 |
| vs Stronger (28) | 9.5 | 10.2 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 25.2 | 25.9 | 24.3 |
| vs Similar (22) | 11.6 | 10.1 | 12.8 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 25.6 | 27.6 | 24.1 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 59% | 61% | 57% | 50% | 42% | 58% | 84% | 87% | 81% |
| % under line | 41% | 39% | 43% | 50% | 58% | 42% | 16% | 13% | 19% |
IFK Goteborg| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.60 | 0.50 | 0.36 | 0.88 | 0.81 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.00 | 1.17 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.91 | 0.50 | 0.60 | 0.40 | 1.17 | 0.58 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+37pp vs league) | |||||
Degerfors IF| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.33 | 0.67 | 0.12 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.71 |
| vs Stronger (18) | 0.22 | 0.72 | 0.08 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 0.83 |
| vs Similar (12) | 0.50 | 0.58 | 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.62 | 0.62 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+20pp vs league) | |||||
IFK Goteborg| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.80 | 0.57 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.81 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.17 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.86 | 0.82 | 0.70 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+13pp vs league) | |||||
Degerfors IF| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.62 | 0.62 | 1.00 | 0.86 |
| vs Stronger (18) | 0.50 | 0.72 | 0.42 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.83 |
| vs Similar (12) | 1.25 | 0.75 | 1.25 | 0.50 | 1.25 | 0.88 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+17pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 85.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 cards | 78.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 77.3% | 1.24 | 1.28 | 1.27 | 1.26 | 1.25 | 1.25 | +2.3% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 76.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 73.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 8.5 corners | 72.4% | 1.30 | 1.36 | 1.35 | 1.28 | 1.27 | 1.25 | +2.2% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 70.2% | 1.36 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.37 | +1.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 04/08/25 | H | 3-0 | |
| 19/05/25 | A | 1-3 | |
| 19/08/23 | A | 1-2 | |
| 04/05/23 | H | 6-0 | |
| 20/10/22 | A | 3-1 | |
| 04/07/22 | H | 2-0 |
IFK Goteborg| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 17/07/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 12/07/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 05/07/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 31/05/26 | A | 4-5 | |
| 25/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 19/05/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 04/05/26 | A | 6-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 2-2 |
Degerfors IF| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 19/07/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 12/07/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 04/07/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 31/05/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 23/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 27/04/26 | A | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Sirius | 18 | 42 | 72% | 2.3 | 47 | 26 | +21 | 4.1 | 100% | 83% | 56% | 10.7 | 78% | 3.1 | 50% | 25.4 | 83% | 27 | 18 | 5 | 4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 48% |
| 2 | Hammarby FF | 18 | 36 | 61% | 2.0 | 42 | 15 | +27 | 3.2 | 94% | 56% | 28% | 9.1 | 39% | 2.8 | 28% | 25.0 | 72% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 61% |
| 3 | BK Hacken | 18 | 31 | 44% | 1.7 | 32 | 26 | +6 | 3.2 | 83% | 56% | 39% | 11.1 | 67% | 4.2 | 56% | 26.2 | 78% | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 52% |
| 4 | Djurgardens IF | 17 | 29 | 53% | 1.7 | 37 | 19 | +18 | 3.3 | 71% | 65% | 41% | 11.1 | 65% | 3.6 | 47% | 23.6 | 65% | 27 | 8 | 14 | 6 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 56% |
| 5 | IF Elfsborg | 18 | 28 | 39% | 1.6 | 25 | 19 | +6 | 2.4 | 83% | 44% | 17% | 9.2 | 44% | 3.8 | 56% | 22.1 | 56% | 17 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 47% |
| 6 | AIK Stockholm | 17 | 28 | 47% | 1.6 | 25 | 25 | +0 | 2.9 | 82% | 65% | 24% | 10.3 | 41% | 4.4 | 71% | 24.5 | 71% | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 7 | Malmo FF | 18 | 26 | 44% | 1.4 | 32 | 30 | +2 | 3.4 | 78% | 72% | 50% | 10.2 | 44% | 4.1 | 67% | 27.4 | 89% | 30 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 57% |
| 8 | Vasteras SK FK | 18 | 26 | 39% | 1.4 | 25 | 32 | -7 | 3.2 | 72% | 56% | 39% | 9.7 | 56% | 3.7 | 44% | 26.7 | 100% | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 47% |
| 9 | IF Brommapojkarna | 18 | 24 | 33% | 1.3 | 27 | 27 | +0 | 3.0 | 94% | 72% | 33% | 10.0 | 56% | 3.2 | 33% | 22.6 | 56% | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 47% |
| 10 | Gais | 18 | 23 | 33% | 1.3 | 21 | 18 | +3 | 2.2 | 72% | 33% | 17% | 10.0 | 56% | 3.4 | 39% | 24.3 | 67% | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 50% |
| 11 | Mjallby AIF | 16 | 20 | 31% | 1.2 | 24 | 23 | +1 | 2.9 | 75% | 50% | 25% | 9.1 | 38% | 3.9 | 62% | 25.6 | 62% | 26 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 54% |
| 12 | IFK Goteborg | 18 | 20 | 28% | 1.1 | 23 | 39 | -16 | 3.4 | 94% | 56% | 39% | 11.7 | 72% | 4.0 | 44% | 24.6 | 72% | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 51% |
| 13 | Kalmar FF | 18 | 19 | 28% | 1.1 | 21 | 28 | -7 | 2.7 | 78% | 56% | 28% | 10.2 | 50% | 3.3 | 33% | 23.8 | 61% | 10 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 47% |
| 14 | Degerfors IF | 18 | 16 | 22% | 0.9 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 2.6 | 83% | 50% | 17% | 9.4 | 39% | 3.6 | 39% | 26.3 | 72% | 6 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 46% |
| 15 | Orgryte IS | 18 | 14 | 17% | 0.8 | 22 | 41 | -19 | 3.5 | 94% | 56% | 39% | 10.1 | 50% | 3.1 | 44% | 21.5 | 44% | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 43% |
| 16 | Halmstad | 18 | 8 | 6% | 0.4 | 12 | 35 | -23 | 2.6 | 94% | 33% | 17% | 10.7 | 61% | 3.2 | 44% | 22.7 | 44% | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0.7 | 1.9 | 41% |