The contest between IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win. The odds sit at 41% for a home victory, 31% for a draw and 29% for an away win, so the match is a true toss-up. The average goal tally is 2.3, with the most probable total being two goals at 28%. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, carrying a 14.4% chance. IFK Goteborg, playing at home against a side of similar strength, averages 1.57 goals scored and 0.71 conceded, while IF Elfsborg, on the road, averages 0.78 scored and 1.89 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 92%, Over 21.5 fouls at 83.7%, Over 2.5 cards at 80.2%, Under 3.5 at 79.5% (miss), Over 8.5 corners at 78.6%, Under 5.5 cards at 73.8% (miss) and Over 23.5 fouls at 71.6%. Both teams have shown recent resilience, with Goteborg coming off a win and Elfsborg unbeaten in five.
Results analysis
The upset came early as the pre-match favourite, a home win, fell short, with IF Elfsborg snatching a 1-3 victory. The model had tipped a 41% chance for the home side, but the result proved wrong. The match delivered on the model’s other selections: over 19.5 fouls (92% probability, hit), over 21.5 fouls (83.7%, hit), over 2.5 cards (80.2%, hit), over 8.5 corners (78.6%, hit) and over 23.5 fouls (71.6%, hit). Two picks missed: under 3.5 (79.5%) and under 5.5 cards (73.8%). IFK Göteborg entered on a win, while IF Elfsborg came unbeaten in their last five. The final score of 1-3 confirms the surprise outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
IFK Goteborg winâś— Miss
40.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
30.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
IF Elfsborg winâś“ Hit
28.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
IFK Goteborg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.35
1.04
1.36
0.91
1.33
1.17
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (15)
1.47
1.00
1.57
0.71
1.38
1.25
vs Weaker (5)
1.80
0.80
1.33
1.33
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
35% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (IF Elfsborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
IF Elfsborg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.76
1.44
2.33
1.42
1.23
1.46
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.33
1.72
1.89
1.56
0.78
1.89
vs Weaker (7)
2.86
0.71
3.67
1.00
2.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
16% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (IFK Goteborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.7%
Under 1.5
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
41.0%
Under 2.5
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
20.5%
Under 3.5
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.0%
No
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
1-0
11.3%
0-0
11.1%
0-1
8.9%
2-1
8.4%
2-0
8.1%
1-2
6.8%
0-2
5.3%
IFK Goteborg goals ↓
IF Elfsborg goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
8.9%
5.3%
1.8%
0.5%
1
11%
14%
6.8%
2.4%
0.6%
2
8.1%
8.4%
4.4%
1.5%
0.4%
3
3.4%
3.6%
1.9%
0.6%
0.2%
4
1.1%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = IFK Goteborg goals (down), columns = IF Elfsborg goals (across).
đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
BK Hacken
2.13
Djurgardens IF
1.90
Hammarby FF
1.87
Kalmar FF
1.70
AIK Stockholm
1.67
IF Elfsborg
1.63
Malmo FF
1.53
IFK Goteborg
1.50
Mjallby AIF
1.43
IFK Varnamo
1.23
Sirius
1.17
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.16
IFK Norrkoping
1.13
Degerfors IF
1.03
Helsingborg
0.57
GIF Sundsvall
0.47
Osters IF
0.00
IFK Goteborg is 0.13 points worse than IF Elfsborg in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.63).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
BK Hacken
2.30
Hammarby FF
2.00
IF Elfsborg
1.83
Djurgardens IF
1.83
AIK Stockholm
1.50
Malmo FF
1.47
IFK Goteborg
1.40
Kalmar FF
1.37
IFK Norrkoping
1.33
IFK Varnamo
1.13
Mjallby AIF
1.10
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.09
Degerfors IF
1.07
Sirius
1.03
Osters IF
1.00
GIF Sundsvall
0.93
Helsingborg
0.73
IFK Goteborg is 0.43 goals worse than IF Elfsborg in terms of goals scored per game (1.40 vs 1.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Djurgardens IF
0.83
Kalmar FF
0.90
Hammarby FF
0.90
Mjallby AIF
1.10
Malmo FF
1.13
IF Elfsborg
1.17
AIK Stockholm
1.20
BK Hacken
1.23
IFK Goteborg
1.30
IFK Norrkoping
1.40
Sirius
1.40
IFK Varnamo
1.57
Degerfors IF
1.63
Helsingborg
1.73
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.84
Osters IF
2.00
GIF Sundsvall
2.67
IFK Goteborg is 0.13 goals worse than IF Elfsborg in terms of goals conceded per game (1.30 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Osters IF
66%
Kalmar FF
60%
Malmo FF
59%
Hammarby FF
58%
Djurgardens IF
55%
BK Hacken
53%
Sirius
53%
AIK Stockholm
51%
IFK Varnamo
49%
IF Elfsborg
48%
Mjallby AIF
47%
IFK Goteborg
47%
Helsingborg
47%
IFK Norrkoping
46%
Degerfors IF
45%
Varbergs BoIS FC
40%
GIF Sundsvall
40%
IFK Goteborg is 1.2 percentage points worse than IF Elfsborg in terms of average possession (47% vs 48%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
IFK Goteborg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.35
0.91
0.18
0.75
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (15)
1.00
0.33
1.14
0.00
0.88
0.62
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.40
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
78% (+52pp vs league)
This opponent (IF Elfsborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
IF Elfsborg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.92
0.64
1.08
0.50
0.77
0.77
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.78
0.67
1.11
0.44
0.44
0.89
vs Weaker (7)
1.29
0.57
1.00
0.67
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
44% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (IFK Goteborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
IFK Goteborg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IFK Goteborg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IFK Goteborg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IF Elfsborg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IF Elfsborg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IF Elfsborg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
IFK Goteborg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.52
0.70
0.45
0.73
0.58
0.67
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.33
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.67
0.43
0.71
0.50
0.62
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.40
0.67
0.67
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
39% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (IF Elfsborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
IF Elfsborg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.84
0.80
1.25
0.92
0.46
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.56
1.06
0.78
1.11
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (7)
1.57
0.14
2.67
0.33
0.75
0.00
Clean sheet %
52% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (IFK Goteborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
IFK Goteborg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IFK Goteborg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IFK Goteborg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IF Elfsborg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IF Elfsborg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IF Elfsborg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 3.5
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
Over 8.5 corners
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MF (28)
€35m
HF (22)
€35m
SIR (24)
€28m
DI (22)
€27m
MA (24)
€26m
AS (27)
€21m
IG (25)
€18m
IE (26)
€17m
BH (22)
€16m
KF (21)
€10m
IN (25)
€9m
HEL (25)
€7m
VBF (24)
€6m
DI (23)
€6m
OI (23)
€5m
IV (21)
€5m
GS (22)
€4m
IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg have a similar squad value (both €18m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SIR (10)
€18m
HF (9)
€13m
MF (8)
€12m
IG (9)
€8m
AS (7)
€8m
DI (6)
€8m
MA (9)
€7m
BH (4)
€6m
IE (9)
€5m
KF (8)
€4m
IN (8)
€3m
IV (7)
€2m
HEL (8)
€2m
VBF (7)
€2m
OI (7)
€2m
GS (8)
€1m
DI (5)
€1m
IFK Goteborg's attack is €3m more valuable than IF Elfsborg's (€8m vs €5m).
🧠Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DI (6)
€14m
HF (4)
€11m
MF (7)
€11m
MA (6)
€11m
AS (9)
€7m
SIR (5)
€5m
IE (5)
€4m
IG (4)
€3m
BH (6)
€3m
IN (8)
€3m
DI (7)
€3m
KF (5)
€2m
HEL (7)
€2m
VBF (8)
€2m
OI (6)
€2m
GS (5)
€1m
IV (4)
€1m
IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg have a similar midfield value (both €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MF (13)
€12m
HF (9)
€10m
MA (9)
€8m
IE (12)
€7m
BH (12)
€7m
DI (10)
€6m
AS (11)
€6m
IG (12)
€6m
SIR (9)
€4m
KF (8)
€3m
IN (9)
€3m
DI (11)
€3m
HEL (10)
€2m
VBF (9)
€2m
OI (10)
€2m
IV (10)
€2m
GS (9)
€2m
IFK Goteborg's defence is €2m less valuable than IF Elfsborg's (€6m vs €7m).
Sweden: Allsvenskan 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Sweden: Allsvenskan stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
BK Hacken
Djurgardens IF
Hammarby FF
Kalmar FF
AIK Stockholm
Malmo FF
Mjallby AIF
IFK Varnamo
Varbergs BoIS FC
Sirius
IFK Norrkoping
Degerfors IF
Helsingborg
GIF Sundsvall
Osters IF