IFK Norrkoping host Helsingborg in a Sweden: Superettan matchup with the home side heavily favored to take the win. Recent form has seen IFK Norrkoping on a 4-game winning run, including a 3-0 thrashing of IK brage, while Helsingborg are coming off a defeat to IFK Norrkoping. The expected total goals is 3.3, suggesting a high-scoring encounter. The most likely score is 1-1, although the model's most likely total goals is 3.
IFK Norrkoping have averaged 1.5 goals scored and 0.67 conceded at home, while Helsingborg have averaged 1.9 scored and 2.1 conceded away from home, albeit against similar opponents. The model's selection is the home win, which it predicts with a 60% probability. The away win percentage is 18%, with the draw at 22%. The model's suggested picks are Over 1.5, which it predicts with an 84.7% probability and has hit in the past.
Results analysis
The win extends IFK Norrkoping's run to four consecutive victories, a testament to their current form. The final score of 2-0 confirmed the home win, the actual result. The model's selection, home win, proved correct, with a pre-match probability of 60%. The model's call was correct, as it correctly identified IFK Norrkoping as the favourite. The model's selection of over 1.5 goals also hit, with an 84.7% probability, while the most likely total goals was 3, with a 22% probability.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
IFK Norrkoping win✓ Hit
59.7%
Avg Implied 58.7% · @ 1.57
Edge
+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.60
Dafabet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.59
Superbet
1.59
Draw✗ Miss
22.1%
Avg Implied 22.0% · @ 4.20
Edge
+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.40
Pinnacle
4.38
BetVictor
4.33
Dafabet
4.30
Helsingborg win✗ Miss
18.2%
Avg Implied 19.3% · @ 4.77
Edge
-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.10
10Bet
5.00
Marathonbet
4.80
BetVictor
4.80
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
IFK Norrkoping
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.20
1.64
1.00
1.00
1.38
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.67
0.00
3.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.40
1.04
2.09
0.64
0.86
1.36
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Helsingborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Helsingborg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.90
1.73
1.40
1.40
2.40
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
4.00
-
-
0.33
4.00
vs Similar (27)
1.70
1.67
1.73
1.40
1.67
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (IFK Norrkoping) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.7%
@ 1.12+1.9%
Under 1.5
15.3%
@ 5.41-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Unibet
1.13
Under
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Pinnacle
5.92
BetVictor
5.75
10Bet
5.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
63.4%
@ 1.46-0.4%
Under 2.5
36.6%
@ 2.57+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.50
Bet365
1.48
Betfair
1.47
Betano
1.47
Unibet
1.46
Under
Pinnacle
2.71
BetVictor
2.63
Betfair
2.63
10Bet
2.60
Bet365
2.60
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.3%
@ 2.16-2.0%
Under 3.5
58.7%
@ 1.65+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.25
Pinnacle
2.20
Betfair
2.20
1xBet
2.16
Marathonbet
2.16
Under
Bet365
1.67
1xBet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.66
Pinnacle
1.66
10Bet
1.65
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.6%
@ 1.52-0.2%
No
39.4%
@ 2.35+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Betano
1.53
Superbet
1.53
Bet365
1.53
No
BetVictor
2.45
William Hil
2.40
1xBet
2.39
Betfair
2.38
Bet365
2.38
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.1%@ 8.09+4.6%
2-1
9.8%@ 7.60+4.0%
2-0 ✓
8.7%@ 8.97+3.8%
1-0
7.2%@ 9.47+2.5%
3-1
7.0%@ 10.36+2.7%
3-0
6.2%@ 12.05+2.5%
2-2
5.5%@ 12.15+1.9%
1-2
5.2%@ 14.09+2.0%
IFK Norrkoping goals ↓
Helsingborg goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.7%
3.4%
2.4%
0.9%
0.3%
1
7.2%
10%
5.2%
1.9%
0.5%
2
8.7%
9.8%
5.5%
2.1%
0.6%
3
6.2%
7.0%
4.0%
1.5%
0.4%
4
3.3%
3.8%
2.1%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = IFK Norrkoping goals (down), columns = Helsingborg goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
IFK Norrkoping
2.20
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.79
Falkenbergs FF
1.75
Ostersunds FK
1.70
United Nordic
1.60
Osters IF
1.53
Landskrona BoIS
1.50
Oddevold
1.45
Sandviken
1.30
Helsingborg
1.25
Ljungskile SK
1.20
Norrby IF
1.15
IK brage
1.05
IFK Varnamo
0.95
Orebro SK
0.84
GIF Sundsvall
0.53
IFK Norrkoping is 0.95 points better than Helsingborg in terms of average points per game (2.20 vs 1.25).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
IFK Norrkoping
1.90
Falkenbergs FF
1.85
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.79
IK brage
1.70
Sandviken
1.65
Oddevold
1.65
Helsingborg
1.65
Osters IF
1.58
United Nordic
1.55
Ostersunds FK
1.45
Ljungskile SK
1.35
Landskrona BoIS
1.30
Norrby IF
1.25
IFK Varnamo
1.20
Orebro SK
0.95
GIF Sundsvall
0.74
IFK Norrkoping is 0.25 goals better than Helsingborg in terms of goals scored per game (1.90 vs 1.65).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
IFK Norrkoping
0.60
Landskrona BoIS
1.05
Ostersunds FK
1.10
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.26
Norrby IF
1.35
Ljungskile SK
1.35
United Nordic
1.35
Oddevold
1.40
Falkenbergs FF
1.45
Sandviken
1.50
Osters IF
1.53
Orebro SK
1.63
IFK Varnamo
1.90
IK brage
1.90
Helsingborg
2.00
GIF Sundsvall
2.26
IFK Norrkoping is 1.40 goals better than Helsingborg in terms of goals conceded per game (0.60 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Landskrona BoIS
58%
Sandviken
55%
IFK Norrkoping
55%
Ostersunds FK
53%
IFK Varnamo
53%
Ljungskile SK
51%
Osters IF
50%
United Nordic
50%
Falkenbergs FF
50%
Oddevold
50%
Orebro SK
50%
IK brage
48%
Varbergs BoIS FC
47%
Helsingborg
45%
Norrby IF
44%
GIF Sundsvall
41%
IFK Norrkoping is 9.7 percentage points better than Helsingborg in terms of average possession (55% vs 45%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
IFK Norrkoping
For 4.8 · Against 4.9 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.5 · Against 12.8 · Total 27.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Helsingborg
For 4.8 · Against 5.7 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 11.7 · Total 24.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
IFK Norrkoping
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.1
12.4
9.8
3.4
3.6
3.2
27.4
28.7
26.1
vs Stronger (8)
11.0
13.5
8.5
4.6
5.2
4.0
25.9
26.2
25.5
vs Similar (40)
11.1
12.1
10.2
3.3
3.5
3.2
27.9
29.4
26.2
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
67%
84%
50%
48%
50%
46%
91%
94%
88%
% under line
33%
16%
50%
52%
50%
54%
9%
6%
12%
This opponent (Helsingborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Helsingborg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.9
8.8
1.6
1.4
1.8
23.7
22.8
24.2
vs Stronger (4)
7.0
7.0
-
1.5
6.0
0.0
20.0
20.0
-
vs Similar (45)
9.4
10.3
8.8
1.7
1.2
2.1
24.0
23.5
24.2
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
50%
43%
55%
26%
20%
32%
53%
60%
50%
% under line
50%
57%
45%
74%
80%
68%
47%
40%
50%
This opponent (IFK Norrkoping) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Osters IF
11.8
IFK Norrkoping
11.5
IFK Varnamo
11.0
Helsingborg
10.4
Landskrona BoIS
10.3
IK brage
10.3
Ljungskile SK
10.2
Varbergs BoIS FC
10.1
GIF Sundsvall
10.0
Sandviken
9.9
Oddevold
9.5
Orebro SK
9.4
Ostersunds FK
9.2
United Nordic
9.1
Norrby IF
9.0
Falkenbergs FF
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
IFK Norrkoping
4.2
Helsingborg
4.1
Landskrona BoIS
4.0
Osters IF
4.0
Ljungskile SK
3.8
Varbergs BoIS FC
3.8
Norrby IF
3.8
Orebro SK
3.7
IK brage
3.6
Ostersunds FK
3.5
IFK Varnamo
3.3
Sandviken
3.3
GIF Sundsvall
3.1
Oddevold
2.9
Falkenbergs FF
2.8
United Nordic
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
United Nordic
29.8
IFK Norrkoping
27.0
Varbergs BoIS FC
26.6
Ljungskile SK
26.6
Osters IF
25.4
Ostersunds FK
25.3
Norrby IF
24.3
Helsingborg
24.2
IK brage
24.1
Landskrona BoIS
23.9
Orebro SK
23.7
Sandviken
23.5
Falkenbergs FF
23.3
IFK Varnamo
22.8
Oddevold
21.4
GIF Sundsvall
21.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
51.8%
@ 1.48-10.5%
Under 9.5
48.2%
@ 2.45+10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.54
Superbet
1.52
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.45
Under
Unibet
2.55
Betano
2.50
1xBet
2.46
Marathonbet
2.44
Superbet
2.37
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
47.8%
Under 3.5
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
81.5%
Under 21.5
18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
IFK Norrkoping
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.50
1.00
0.36
0.50
0.62
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.50
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.80
0.44
1.27
0.09
0.43
0.71
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Helsingborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Helsingborg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.83
0.60
0.53
0.80
1.13
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
0.78
0.70
0.60
0.53
1.00
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (IFK Norrkoping) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
IFK Norrkoping over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IFK Norrkoping over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IFK Norrkoping over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Helsingborg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Helsingborg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Helsingborg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
IFK Norrkoping
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.70
0.64
0.64
0.50
0.75
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.67
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
0.60
0.60
0.82
0.55
0.43
0.64
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Helsingborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Helsingborg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.07
1.13
0.87
0.60
1.27
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.00
-
-
0.33
2.00
vs Similar (27)
0.93
0.96
1.13
0.87
0.67
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (IFK Norrkoping) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
IFK Norrkoping over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IFK Norrkoping over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IFK Norrkoping over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Helsingborg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Helsingborg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Helsingborg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
84.7%
1.12
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Unibet
1.13
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
71.8%
1.57
Unibet
1.63
Superbet
1.60
1xBet
1.58
Betano
1.55
Marathonbet
1.53
+13.1%
-
Under 4.5 cards
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IN (25)
€9m
HEL (25)
€7m
LB (20)
€6m
VBF (24)
€6m
FF (19)
€5m
OI (23)
€5m
ODD (23)
€5m
IV (21)
€5m
OS (23)
€5m
IB (22)
€4m
SAN (20)
€4m
OF (21)
€4m
GS (21)
€4m
LS (22)
€3m
UN (17)
€3m
NI (17)
€3m
IFK Norrkoping's squad is €2m more valuable than Helsingborg's (€9m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IN (8)
€3m
IV (7)
€2m
HEL (8)
€2m
FF (8)
€2m
LB (5)
€2m
VBF (7)
€2m
OI (7)
€2m
ODD (6)
€1m
SAN (5)
€1m
OS (6)
€1m
GS (8)
€1m
NI (6)
€1m
LS (7)
€1m
OF (5)
€1m
IB (4)
€1m
UN (4)
€0m
IFK Norrkoping's attack is €1m more valuable than Helsingborg's (€3m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IN (8)
€3m
HEL (7)
€2m
VBF (8)
€2m
LB (7)
€2m
OF (6)
€2m
OI (6)
€2m
IB (7)
€1m
ODD (7)
€1m
SAN (6)
€1m
OS (5)
€1m
GS (4)
€1m
LS (4)
€1m
UN (4)
€1m
IV (4)
€1m
FF (2)
€1m
NI (3)
€0m
IFK Norrkoping and Helsingborg have a similar midfield value (both €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IN (9)
€3m
FF (9)
€3m
OS (12)
€3m
ODD (10)
€3m
HEL (10)
€2m
LB (8)
€2m
IB (11)
€2m
VBF (9)
€2m
OI (10)
€2m
UN (9)
€2m
SAN (9)
€2m
IV (10)
€2m
OF (10)
€2m
GS (9)
€2m
LS (11)
€2m
NI (8)
€1m
IFK Norrkoping and Helsingborg have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Sweden: Superettan 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Sweden: Superettan stats & trends →
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Falkenbergs FF
Varbergs BoIS FC
Ostersunds FK
United Nordic
Landskrona BoIS
Oddevold
Osters IF
Sandviken
Ljungskile SK
Norrby IF
IK brage
IFK Varnamo
Orebro SK
GIF Sundsvall