The match between IFK Varnamo and Varbergs BoIS FC is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. The probability of a home victory sits at 33%, a draw at 27%, and an away win at 40%. The expected total goals is 2.9, but the most likely total is two goals, a 24% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.7% probability. IFK Varnamo, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened opponent, averages 1.23 goals scored and 1.31 conceded. Varbergs BoIS, on the road against a similar side, averages 1.86 scored and 1.43 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals at 99.0%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.2%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 97.4%, Under 6.5 at 97.1%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 96.4%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 95.7%, Home under 3.5 goals at 95.0%, and Away under 3.5 goals at 93.0%. All figures are presented as percentages.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
IFK Varnamo win
33.2%
Avg Implied 39.8% · @ 2.31
Edge
-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.38
Betfair
2.38
Betano
2.37
Unibet
2.32
Pinnacle
2.31
Draw
27.0%
Avg Implied 27.2% · @ 3.38
Edge
-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.50
10Bet
3.50
BetVictor
3.50
Pinnacle
3.45
Marathonbet
3.42
Varbergs BoIS FC win
39.8%
Avg Implied 33.0% · @ 2.79
Edge
+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.95
1xBet
2.88
10Bet
2.88
Marathonbet
2.86
Dafabet
2.80
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
IFK Varnamo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
2.07
1.14
1.57
1.44
2.50
vs Stronger (5)
1.40
3.60
0.00
5.00
1.75
3.25
vs Similar (25)
1.28
1.76
1.23
1.31
1.33
2.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Varbergs BoIS FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Varbergs BoIS FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.30
1.64
1.00
1.69
1.56
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (29)
1.72
1.31
1.64
1.00
1.80
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (IFK Varnamo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.8%
@ 1.20+2.4%
Under 1.5
20.2%
@ 4.10-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Bet365
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Pinnacle
4.27
Unibet
4.20
BetVictor
4.10
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
55.5%
@ 1.69+0.1%
Under 2.5
44.5%
@ 2.10-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.73
Bet365
1.70
1xBet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
Under
Betfair
2.15
SBO
2.14
Pinnacle
2.13
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.10
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
33.2%
@ 2.65-1.8%
Under 3.5
66.8%
@ 1.43+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.80
BetVictor
2.75
Betfair
2.70
Pinnacle
2.69
Bet365
2.62
Under
Pinnacle
1.45
Betano
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Bet365
1.44
10Bet
1.44
Both teams to score
Yes
59.7%
@ 1.55+0.3%
No
40.3%
@ 2.28-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.60
Betfair
1.57
Bet365
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Betano
1.55
No
Betfair
2.38
Betano
2.32
1xBet
2.30
Unibet
2.28
Marathonbet
2.26
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%@ 6.31+5.7%
1-2
8.8%@ 9.50+4.2%
2-1
7.9%@ 8.44+2.7%
0-1
7.2%@ 9.99+2.8%
0-0
6.6%@ 11.58+2.8%
1-0
6.4%@ 9.09+1.6%
0-2
6.4%@ 14.46+3.3%
2-2
6.1%@ 10.95+2.0%
IFK Varnamo goals ↓
Varbergs BoIS FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.6%
7.2%
6.4%
3.2%
1.2%
1
6.4%
13%
8.8%
4.5%
1.7%
2
5.2%
7.9%
6.1%
3.1%
1.2%
3
2.4%
3.6%
2.8%
1.4%
0.5%
4
0.8%
1.3%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = IFK Varnamo goals (down), columns = Varbergs BoIS FC goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
IFK Norrkoping
2.24
Falkenbergs FF
1.81
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.76
Ostersunds FK
1.67
Osters IF
1.57
United Nordic
1.52
Landskrona BoIS
1.48
Oddevold
1.38
Sandviken
1.29
Helsingborg
1.24
Ljungskile SK
1.14
Norrby IF
1.10
IFK Varnamo
1.05
IK brage
1.00
Orebro SK
0.95
GIF Sundsvall
0.62
IFK Varnamo is 0.71 points worse than Varbergs BoIS FC in terms of average points per game (1.05 vs 1.76).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Falkenbergs FF
1.95
IFK Norrkoping
1.95
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.81
IK brage
1.67
Sandviken
1.62
Oddevold
1.62
Helsingborg
1.62
United Nordic
1.52
Osters IF
1.52
Ostersunds FK
1.43
Ljungskile SK
1.29
Landskrona BoIS
1.29
Norrby IF
1.19
IFK Varnamo
1.19
Orebro SK
1.00
GIF Sundsvall
0.71
IFK Varnamo is 0.62 goals worse than Varbergs BoIS FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 1.81).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
IFK Norrkoping
0.62
Landskrona BoIS
1.05
Ostersunds FK
1.10
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.29
Norrby IF
1.33
Ljungskile SK
1.33
United Nordic
1.43
Osters IF
1.43
Falkenbergs FF
1.43
Sandviken
1.48
Oddevold
1.48
Orebro SK
1.57
IFK Varnamo
1.81
Helsingborg
1.95
IK brage
2.00
GIF Sundsvall
2.10
IFK Varnamo is 0.52 goals worse than Varbergs BoIS FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.81 vs 1.29).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Landskrona BoIS
57%
Sandviken
55%
IFK Norrkoping
55%
IFK Varnamo
53%
Ostersunds FK
53%
Osters IF
50%
Orebro SK
50%
Falkenbergs FF
50%
Ljungskile SK
50%
Oddevold
50%
United Nordic
49%
IK brage
48%
Varbergs BoIS FC
47%
Helsingborg
44%
Norrby IF
44%
GIF Sundsvall
41%
IFK Varnamo is 6.2 percentage points better than Varbergs BoIS FC in terms of average possession (53% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
IFK Varnamo
For 4.3 · Against 4.1 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 12.8 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Varbergs BoIS FC
For 4.2 · Against 4.1 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.7 · Against 12.8 · Total 28.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
IFK Varnamo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
11.6
9.7
2.2
2.4
2.0
22.4
22.0
22.7
vs Stronger (17)
11.2
13.1
9.7
3.1
3.3
3.0
23.3
22.3
24.1
vs Similar (32)
10.1
10.4
9.8
1.8
2.0
1.5
21.0
21.6
20.5
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
62%
69%
56%
26%
30%
22%
59%
58%
60%
% under line
38%
31%
44%
74%
70%
78%
41%
42%
40%
This opponent (Varbergs BoIS FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Varbergs BoIS FC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.0
8.8
1.6
1.5
1.6
27.1
28.0
26.5
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (49)
8.9
9.0
8.8
1.6
1.5
1.7
27.1
28.0
26.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
48%
50%
45%
22%
21%
23%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
52%
50%
55%
78%
79%
77%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (IFK Varnamo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Osters IF
11.8
IFK Norrkoping
11.5
IFK Varnamo
10.9
Helsingborg
10.3
Landskrona BoIS
10.3
IK brage
10.2
Ljungskile SK
10.2
United Nordic
10.1
Varbergs BoIS FC
10.1
GIF Sundsvall
10.0
Sandviken
9.9
Oddevold
9.5
Ostersunds FK
9.4
Orebro SK
9.4
Norrby IF
9.0
Falkenbergs FF
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
IFK Norrkoping
4.2
Helsingborg
4.1
Ljungskile SK
3.9
Osters IF
3.9
Norrby IF
3.8
Varbergs BoIS FC
3.7
Landskrona BoIS
3.7
Orebro SK
3.7
IK brage
3.6
IFK Varnamo
3.3
Ostersunds FK
3.3
Sandviken
3.3
GIF Sundsvall
3.0
Oddevold
2.9
United Nordic
2.9
Falkenbergs FF
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
United Nordic
29.8
IFK Norrkoping
27.2
Ljungskile SK
26.6
Varbergs BoIS FC
26.6
Osters IF
25.2
Ostersunds FK
25.1
Norrby IF
24.3
IK brage
24.1
Orebro SK
24.0
Helsingborg
24.0
Landskrona BoIS
23.7
Sandviken
23.5
Falkenbergs FF
23.3
IFK Varnamo
22.9
Oddevold
21.4
GIF Sundsvall
21.1
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
42.6%
@ 1.97-4.8%
Under 9.5
57.4%
@ 1.77+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.07
Unibet
1.96
Under
Marathonbet
2.01
Pinnacle
1.98
Unibet
1.73
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.67
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
45.1%
Under 3.5
54.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
75.9%
Under 21.5
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
IFK Varnamo or Draw
60.2%
Avg Implied 66.7% · @ 1.39
Edge
-6.5%
33%
27%
40%
covers IFK Varnamo + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.44
William Hil
1.40
Betfair
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Bet365
1.40
IFK Varnamo or Varbergs BoIS FC
73.0%
Avg Implied 73.1% · @ 1.27
Edge
-0.1%
33%
27%
40%
covers IFK Varnamo + Varbergs BoIS FC
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Draw or Varbergs BoIS FC
66.8%
Avg Implied 60.2% · @ 1.54
Edge
+6.6%
33%
27%
40%
covers Draw + Varbergs BoIS FC
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.57
Betano
1.57
10Bet
1.57
William Hil
1.57
1xBet
1.56
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
IFK Varnamo over/under 0.5
Over
74.8%
@ 1.20-2.2%
Under
25.2%
@ 4.01+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
10Bet
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
Under
1xBet
4.15
BetVictor
4.10
Pinnacle
4.05
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
IFK Varnamo over/under 1.5
Over
40.1%
@ 2.03-5.8%
Under
59.9%
@ 1.72+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.10
Betano
2.05
BetVictor
2.05
Pinnacle
2.04
1xBet
2.02
Under
Pinnacle
1.76
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.74
10Bet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
IFK Varnamo over/under 2.5
Over
16.1%
@ 4.29-5.5%
Under
83.9%
@ 1.18+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.25
Under
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
IFK Varnamo over/under 3.5
Over
5.1%
@ 9.62-4.7%
Under
94.9%
@ 1.04+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
10.00
Betfair
9.50
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Varbergs BoIS FC over/under 0.5
Over
78.3%
@ 1.25+4.5%
Under
21.7%
@ 3.53-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
Marathonbet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.71
BetVictor
3.60
Betano
3.55
Unibet
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Varbergs BoIS FC over/under 1.5
Over
45.1%
@ 2.27+4.2%
Under
54.9%
@ 1.57-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.33
Marathonbet
2.33
BetVictor
2.30
10Bet
2.30
Pinnacle
2.27
Under
Betano
1.62
Pinnacle
1.60
Unibet
1.58
Betfair
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Varbergs BoIS FC over/under 2.5
Over
19.8%
@ 5.18+1.9%
Under
80.2%
@ 1.13-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.30
1xBet
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Under
Betano
1.16
Unibet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
Varbergs BoIS FC over/under 3.5
Over
6.9%
@ 11.06-1.6%
Under
93.1%
@ 1.03+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
1xBet
10.00
Betfair
10.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to IFK Varnamo, so a minus line means IFK Varnamo give that many goals of a start and Varbergs BoIS FC receive them. At -1, IFK Varnamo must win by two or more to land; a one-goal IFK Varnamo win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (IFK Varnamo)
IFK Varnamo -2
5.6%
@ 9.68-3.7%
Draw -2
9.9%
@ 6.70-3.5%
Varbergs BoIS FC +2
84.5%
@ 1.17+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
10.00
Unibet
9.00
Marathonbet
8.70
Draw
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.70
Unibet
6.10
Away
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Handicap -1 (IFK Varnamo)
IFK Varnamo -1
15.5%
@ 4.31-5.2%
Draw -1
17.7%
@ 4.09-4.2%
Varbergs BoIS FC +1
66.8%
@ 1.55+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Unibet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.20
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.15
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Away
10Bet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Marathonbet
1.56
Betfair
1.53
Unibet
1.53
Handicap +1 (IFK Varnamo)
IFK Varnamo +1
60.2%
@ 1.40-3.3%
Draw +1
19.7%
@ 4.46-0.3%
Varbergs BoIS FC -1
20.1%
@ 5.38+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.44
Bet365
1.40
Unibet
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.65
10Bet
4.33
Betfair
4.33
Unibet
4.25
Away
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Marathonbet
5.55
Unibet
5.10
Betfair
4.50
Handicap +2 (IFK Varnamo)
IFK Varnamo +2
79.9%
@ 1.12+0.6%
Draw +2
12.2%
@ 6.96-0.5%
Varbergs BoIS FC -2
7.9%
@ 11.11-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Betfair
7.50
Unibet
7.00
Marathonbet
4.85
Away
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
12.00
Unibet
11.00
Marathonbet
6.45
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
IFK Varnamo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.93
0.36
0.50
0.44
1.31
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.40
0.00
2.00
0.75
1.25
vs Similar (25)
0.36
0.84
0.38
0.38
0.33
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Varbergs BoIS FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Varbergs BoIS FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.50
0.93
0.36
0.88
0.62
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (29)
0.93
0.48
0.93
0.36
0.93
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (IFK Varnamo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
69.9%
@ 1.31-0.8%
Under 0.5
30.1%
@ 3.17+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
BetVictor
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.25
William Hil
3.25
10Bet
3.20
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
32.8%
@ 2.45-5.0%
Under 1.5
67.2%
@ 1.49+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.52
Betano
2.50
Bet365
2.50
1xBet
2.47
Marathonbet
2.47
Under
BetVictor
1.50
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.0%
@ 5.97-2.4%
Under 2.5
87.0%
@ 1.09+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
William Hil
6.00
1xBet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Betfair
1.08
BetVictor
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
IFK Varnamo over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.2%
@ 1.86-2.5%
Under
52.8%
@ 1.83+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.91
Pinnacle
1.87
Marathonbet
1.87
10Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
1.90
Unibet
1.84
1xBet
1.83
10Bet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
IFK Varnamo over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.3%
@ 5.39-5.9%
Under
88.7%
@ 1.12+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.70
1xBet
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Betano
5.10
Under
1xBet
1.13
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
IFK Varnamo over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.9%
@ 13.62-5.0%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.01+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
17.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Varbergs BoIS FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
43.2%
@ 2.00-2.9%
Under
56.8%
@ 1.72+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.06
Marathonbet
2.03
Betano
2.02
1xBet
2.00
Unibet
1.96
Under
10Bet
1.75
1xBet
1.73
Unibet
1.72
Pinnacle
1.71
Betano
1.70
Varbergs BoIS FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.5%
@ 6.06-2.8%
Under
87.5%
@ 1.09+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.80
1xBet
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Betano
5.70
Under
Betano
1.11
1xBet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.07
Varbergs BoIS FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.2%
@ 15.88-3.8%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.01+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
21.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
IFK Varnamo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.13
0.79
1.07
1.00
1.19
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
2.20
0.00
3.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
0.92
0.92
0.85
0.92
1.00
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Varbergs BoIS FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Varbergs BoIS FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.80
0.71
0.64
0.81
0.94
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (29)
0.79
0.83
0.71
0.64
0.87
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (IFK Varnamo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.5%
@ 1.17-0.9%
Under 0.5
22.5%
@ 4.27+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Under
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.33
1xBet
4.33
Betano
4.20
William Hil
4.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
45.8%
@ 1.86-3.8%
Under 1.5
54.2%
@ 1.83+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.91
1xBet
1.89
Marathonbet
1.89
Unibet
1.84
Bet365
1.83
Under
Betano
1.87
Marathonbet
1.84
1xBet
1.84
Bet365
1.83
Unibet
1.83
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.4%
@ 3.68-6.7%
Under 2.5
81.6%
@ 1.23+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.90
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.68
1xBet
3.68
Betano
3.40
Under
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
IFK Varnamo over/under 0.5 2H
Over
50.8%
@ 1.59-7.4%
Under
49.2%
@ 2.22+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.59
10Bet
1.57
Under
10Bet
2.25
Betano
2.20
1xBet
2.20
IFK Varnamo over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.4%
@ 3.81-8.9%
Under
84.6%
@ 1.22+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.92
10Bet
3.85
1xBet
3.80
Betano
3.65
Under
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
IFK Varnamo over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.4%
@ 9.00-6.9%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.04+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
10.00
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Varbergs BoIS FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
49.0%
@ 1.71-5.2%
Under
51.0%
@ 2.02+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.73
1xBet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.71
Betano
1.67
Under
Betano
2.07
10Bet
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
Varbergs BoIS FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
18.3%
@ 4.50-2.3%
Under
81.7%
@ 1.16+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.70
1xBet
4.50
Betano
4.05
Under
Betano
1.20
Marathonbet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Varbergs BoIS FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.1%
@ 11.00-4.4%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.02+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
13.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+5.0%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.8%
Under 6.5
97.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+2.6%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.6%
1.04
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
-
-
-
+6.9%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
-
-
-
+4.4%
Home under 3.5 goals
94.9%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.03
-
+4.7%
Away under 3.5 goals
93.1%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
+1.6%
Under 5.5
92.5%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.05
BetVictor
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
+2.5%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.7%
1.12
1xBet
1.13
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
-
+5.9%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.5%
1.09
Betano
1.11
1xBet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.07
-
+2.8%
Over 19.5 fouls
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.0%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Betfair
1.08
BetVictor
1.08
+2.4%
Under 5.5 cards
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.6%
1.22
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
-
+8.9%
Away +2 handicap
84.5%
1.17
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
-
+7.2%
Home under 2.5 goals
83.9%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
+5.5%
Under 4.5
83.1%
1.15
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Pinnacle
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.17
+2.1%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
81.7%
1.16
Betano
1.20
Marathonbet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
-
+2.3%
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.6%
1.23
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
+6.7%
Away under 2.5 goals
80.2%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Unibet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
-1.9%
Home +2 handicap
79.9%
1.12
Betfair
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
-
+0.6%
Over 1.5
79.8%
1.20
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Bet365
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
+2.4%
Under 11.5 corners
79.3%
1.26
Marathonbet
1.33
Unibet
1.27
1xBet
1.18
-
-
+7.0%
Away over 0.5 goals
78.3%
1.25
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
Marathonbet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
1xBet
1.25
+4.5%
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.5%
1.17
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
-0.9%
Over 21.5 fouls
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
74.8%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
10Bet
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
-2.2%
Under 4.5 cards
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.0%
1.27
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
-0.1%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
IFK Varnamo
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Marcus Antonsson33%
Simon Thern33%
Axel Björnström33%
Douglas Bergqvist0%
Hugo Andersson0%
Carl Johansson0%
Logi Hrafn Róbertsson0%
Kai Meriluoto0%
Sigge Jansson0%
Fred Bozicevic0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Carl Johansson33%
Marcus Antonsson0%
Douglas Bergqvist0%
Hugo Andersson0%
Simon Thern0%
Axel Björnström0%
Logi Hrafn Róbertsson0%
Kai Meriluoto0%
Sigge Jansson0%
Fred Bozicevic0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Simon Thern33%
Marcus Antonsson0%
Douglas Bergqvist0%
Hugo Andersson0%
Carl Johansson0%
Axel Björnström0%
Logi Hrafn Róbertsson0%
Kai Meriluoto0%
Sigge Jansson0%
Fred Bozicevic0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Simon Thern33%
Marcus Antonsson0%
Douglas Bergqvist0%
Hugo Andersson0%
Carl Johansson0%
Axel Björnström0%
Logi Hrafn Róbertsson0%
Kai Meriluoto0%
Sigge Jansson0%
Fred Bozicevic0%
Varbergs BoIS FC
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Severin Nioule50%
Wilhelm Arlig25%
Shanyder Borgelin25%
Niklas Dahlström25%
Edvin Tellgren25%
Aulon Bitiqi25%
Joakim Lindner0%
Erion Sadiku0%
Oliver Silverholt0%
Albin Winbo0%
Emil Hellman0%
Gustav Broman0%
Oscar Ekman0%
Noah Johansson0%
Isak Vidjeskog0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Niklas Dahlström50%
Erion Sadiku33%
Gustav Broman33%
Emil Hellman25%
Noah Johansson25%
Isak Vidjeskog25%
Severin Nioule25%
Joakim Lindner0%
Wilhelm Arlig0%
Oliver Silverholt0%
Shanyder Borgelin0%
Albin Winbo0%
Oscar Ekman0%
Edvin Tellgren0%
Aulon Bitiqi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Oliver Silverholt33%
Wilhelm Arlig25%
Albin Winbo25%
Emil Hellman25%
Noah Johansson25%
Isak Vidjeskog25%
Joakim Lindner0%
Erion Sadiku0%
Shanyder Borgelin0%
Niklas Dahlström0%
Gustav Broman0%
Oscar Ekman0%
Edvin Tellgren0%
Aulon Bitiqi0%
Severin Nioule0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Shanyder Borgelin25%
Aulon Bitiqi25%
Joakim Lindner0%
Erion Sadiku0%
Wilhelm Arlig0%
Oliver Silverholt0%
Niklas Dahlström0%
Albin Winbo0%
Emil Hellman0%
Gustav Broman0%
Oscar Ekman0%
Edvin Tellgren0%
Noah Johansson0%
Isak Vidjeskog0%
Severin Nioule0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IN (25)
€9m
HEL (25)
€7m
LB (20)
€6m
VBF (24)
€6m
FF (19)
€5m
OI (23)
€5m
ODD (23)
€5m
IV (21)
€5m
OS (23)
€5m
IB (23)
€5m
SAN (20)
€4m
GS (22)
€4m
OF (21)
€4m
LS (22)
€3m
UN (17)
€3m
NI (17)
€3m
IFK Varnamo's squad is €1m less valuable than Varbergs BoIS FC's (€5m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IN (8)
€3m
IV (7)
€2m
HEL (8)
€2m
FF (8)
€2m
LB (5)
€2m
VBF (7)
€2m
OI (7)
€2m
ODD (6)
€1m
SAN (5)
€1m
OS (6)
€1m
GS (8)
€1m
NI (6)
€1m
LS (7)
€1m
IB (5)
€1m
OF (5)
€1m
UN (4)
€0m
IFK Varnamo and Varbergs BoIS FC have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IN (8)
€3m
HEL (7)
€2m
VBF (8)
€2m
LB (7)
€2m
OF (6)
€2m
OI (6)
€2m
IB (7)
€1m
ODD (7)
€1m
GS (5)
€1m
SAN (6)
€1m
OS (5)
€1m
LS (4)
€1m
UN (4)
€1m
IV (4)
€1m
FF (2)
€1m
NI (3)
€0m
IFK Varnamo's midfield is €2m less valuable than Varbergs BoIS FC's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IN (9)
€3m
FF (9)
€3m
OS (12)
€3m
ODD (10)
€3m
HEL (10)
€2m
LB (8)
€2m
IB (11)
€2m
VBF (9)
€2m
OI (10)
€2m
UN (9)
€2m
SAN (9)
€2m
IV (10)
€2m
OF (10)
€2m
GS (9)
€2m
LS (11)
€2m
NI (8)
€1m
IFK Varnamo and Varbergs BoIS FC have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Sweden: Superettan 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Sweden: Superettan stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
IFK Norrkoping
Falkenbergs FF
Ostersunds FK
Osters IF
United Nordic
Landskrona BoIS
Oddevold
Sandviken
Helsingborg
Ljungskile SK
Norrby IF
IK brage
Orebro SK
GIF Sundsvall