

IK Brage hosts Landskrona BoIS in a Superettan match on August 1st. Landskrona BoIS is coming off a win, having beaten Osters IF 1-0, while IK Brage is looking to bounce back from a 0-3 defeat to IFK Norrkoping. The model predicts an away win, with a 42% probability, making it the favourite match result.
The expected total goals is 3.6, and the most likely total goals is 3. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 9.7% probability. IK Brage has scored an average of 2.64 goals at home, while conceding 2.36. Landskrona BoIS has scored 1.08 goals away, while conceding 1.42.
The model's selections include Over 1.5, with an 88.4% probability and a 10% edge, Under 21.5 fouls at 81.4%, and BTTS Yes at 70.6% with a 9% edge. The probabilities for the match result are 35% for IK Brage, 24% for a draw, and 42% for Landskrona BoIS.
The upset of the day came when IK Brage secured a 2-1 win at home against Landskrona BoIS, extending their recent run of inconsistent form. The win was a surprise, as Landskrona BoIS had been the pre-match favourite, with a 42% probability of winning. However, the model's selection, Landskrona BoIS to win away, was incorrect. The model had predicted a 35% probability of IK Brage winning at home. The model's suggested picks, Over 1.5 and BTTS Yes, both hit, with probabilities of 88.4% and 70.6% respectively. The final score and actual result were a 2-1 win for IK Brage, a home win that went against the model's prediction.
IK brage| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.87 | 1.83 | 2.36 | 2.21 | 1.44 | 1.50 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.96 | 1.96 | 2.64 | 2.36 | 1.43 | 1.64 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-9pp vs league) | |||||
Landskrona BoIS| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.20 | 1.27 | 1.33 | 1.13 | 1.07 | 1.40 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.23 | 1.32 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 1.08 | 1.42 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 1.12 | 1.12 | 1.20 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
| Landskrona BoIS goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.4% |
| 1 | 3.8% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 5.3% | 2.5% |
| 2 | 4.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 2.1% |
| 3 | 2.3% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.2% |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
IK brage
Landskrona BoIS
IK brage| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.5 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 24.3 | 24.6 | 23.9 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 10.7 | 11.0 | 10.5 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 21.0 | 24.0 | 19.5 |
| vs Similar (40) | 9.8 | 9.0 | 11.1 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 24.7 | 24.7 | 24.8 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 6.7 | - | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 3.5 | 25.7 | - | 25.7 |
| % over line | 44% | 46% | 42% | 32% | 29% | 35% | 75% | 73% | 78% |
| % under line | 56% | 54% | 58% | 68% | 71% | 65% | 25% | 27% | 22% |
Landskrona BoIS| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.5 | 11.0 | 10.0 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 25.0 | 25.2 | 24.7 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (36) | 11.2 | 12.3 | 9.6 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 24.4 | 24.0 | 25.0 |
| vs Weaker (14) | 9.3 | 7.8 | 10.6 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 26.1 | 29.0 | 24.4 |
| % over line | 58% | 64% | 50% | 32% | 36% | 28% | 65% | 67% | 64% |
| % under line | 42% | 36% | 50% | 68% | 64% | 72% | 35% | 33% | 36% |
IK brage| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.87 | 0.71 | 1.29 | 0.62 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.68 | 0.96 | 0.73 | 1.45 | 0.64 | 0.57 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
Landskrona BoIS| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.70 | 0.87 | 0.73 | 0.47 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.73 | 0.73 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 0.50 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.50 | 0.62 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.33 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 88.4% | 1.18 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.19 | 1.18 | +9.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 86.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 cards | 84.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 77.1% | 1.50 | 1.53 | 1.52 | 1.50 | 1.47 | 1.46 | +15.6% | - |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 75.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 4.5 cards | 70.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| BTTS Yes | 70.6% | 1.50 | 1.53 | 1.51 | 1.51 | 1.51 | 1.50 | +9.1% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/05/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 08/11/25 | H | 4-1 | |
| 30/03/25 | A | 2-2 | |
| 26/10/24 | A | 3-0 | |
| 21/04/24 | H | 1-1 | |
| 19/08/23 | A | 3-0 | |
| 11/06/23 | H | 2-1 | |
| 15/08/22 | H | 1-1 |
IK brage| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 18/07/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 26/06/26 | H | 2-4 | |
| 21/06/26 | H | 5-1 | |
| 14/06/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 09/06/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 30/05/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 23/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 13/05/26 | H | 2-4 |
Landskrona BoIS| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 18/07/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 28/06/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 22/06/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 16/06/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 11/06/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 30/05/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 24/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 18/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 12/05/26 | H | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | IFK Norrkoping | 19 | 41 | 68% | 2.2 | 36 | 11 | +25 | 2.5 | 74% | 42% | 21% | 9.4 | 44% | 3.4 | 56% | 27.8 | 100% | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 55% |
| 2 | Falkenbergs FF | 19 | 35 | 53% | 1.8 | 36 | 27 | +9 | 3.3 | 89% | 68% | 42% | 9.1 | 44% | 1.8 | 11% | 20.3 | 67% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 3 | Varbergs BoIS FC | 19 | 34 | 53% | 1.8 | 34 | 24 | +10 | 3.1 | 79% | 68% | 42% | 7.8 | 36% | 3.9 | 64% | 30.8 | 100% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 47% |
| 4 | Ostersunds FK | 19 | 33 | 47% | 1.7 | 29 | 22 | +7 | 2.7 | 79% | 42% | 26% | 8.7 | 44% | 3.3 | 56% | 25.7 | 100% | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 53% |
| 5 | Landskrona BoIS | 19 | 29 | 42% | 1.5 | 25 | 20 | +5 | 2.4 | 68% | 42% | 21% | 10.1 | 43% | 3.7 | 43% | 28.2 | 75% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 58% |
| 6 | United Nordic | 19 | 29 | 37% | 1.5 | 29 | 26 | +3 | 2.9 | 84% | 42% | 37% | 9.1 | 57% | 2.7 | 29% | 29.8 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 7 | Osters IF | 19 | 29 | 47% | 1.5 | 30 | 29 | +1 | 3.1 | 74% | 68% | 42% | 11.8 | 89% | 2.9 | 33% | 24.5 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 50% |
| 8 | Oddevold | 19 | 26 | 32% | 1.4 | 30 | 27 | +3 | 3.0 | 74% | 58% | 42% | 10.1 | 50% | 2.4 | 22% | 25.4 | 100% | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 9 | Sandviken | 19 | 25 | 37% | 1.3 | 32 | 29 | +3 | 3.2 | 74% | 68% | 42% | 9.6 | 33% | 2.4 | 11% | 23.0 | 67% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 55% |
| 10 | Helsingborg | 19 | 25 | 37% | 1.3 | 32 | 37 | -5 | 3.6 | 95% | 68% | 47% | 9.8 | 75% | 5.0 | 80% | 26.0 | 100% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 45% |
| 11 | Ljungskile SK | 19 | 23 | 32% | 1.2 | 27 | 27 | +0 | 2.8 | 68% | 53% | 42% | 10.2 | 56% | 3.8 | 50% | 26.6 | 100% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 51% |
| 12 | Norrby IF | 19 | 22 | 21% | 1.2 | 24 | 26 | -2 | 2.6 | 79% | 47% | 37% | 7.3 | 33% | 2.3 | 33% | 21.5 | 50% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 44% |
| 13 | IK brage | 19 | 21 | 26% | 1.1 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 3.6 | 79% | 74% | 53% | 8.8 | 38% | 4.2 | 67% | 27.3 | 100% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 48% |
| 14 | IFK Varnamo | 19 | 18 | 26% | 0.9 | 23 | 37 | -14 | 3.2 | 74% | 63% | 47% | 8.2 | 22% | 2.9 | 22% | 24.3 | 67% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 53% |
| 15 | Orebro SK | 19 | 16 | 16% | 0.8 | 18 | 31 | -13 | 2.6 | 68% | 47% | 32% | 9.5 | 50% | 3.0 | 38% | 23.3 | 67% | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 50% |
| 16 | GIF Sundsvall | 19 | 10 | 16% | 0.5 | 14 | 43 | -29 | 3.0 | 74% | 63% | 37% | 9.8 | 67% | 2.6 | 22% | 20.5 | 50% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 41% |