IK Brage is coming off a defeat to IFK Norrkoping, losing 0-3 in their last match. Orebro SK, on the other hand, suffered a 1-3 loss to IFK Varnamo in their previous match. This recent form note sets the stage for a closely contested match in Sweden's Superettan league.
The model predicts a home win for IK Brage, with a 49% probability of victory, followed by a 28% chance of an Orebro SK win and a 23% draw probability. The expected total goals stand at 3.7, with the most likely total number of goals being 3. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 9.3%.
At home, IK Brage has averaged 2.58 goals scored and 2.25 conceded against similar opponents, while Orebro SK has averaged 1.62 goals scored and 2.12 conceded when playing away against similar opponents.
The model's selections include Under 21.5 fouls (95.7%), Over 1.5 (88.9% with an 11% edge), Over 2.5 (70.8% with a 14% edge), and BTTS Yes (70.3% with a 10% edge). The home win percentage stands at 49%, the draw percentage at 23%, and the away win percentage at 28%.
The match between IK Brage and Orebro SK ended in a thrilling 3-3 draw, defying expectations as the home team failed to capitalize on their pre-match advantage. IK Brage, the pre-match favourite with a 51% probability of winning, ultimately fell short, with the model's selection coming up wrong. The model had predicted a home win, but the actual result was a draw. Meanwhile, the model's suggested picks all came to fruition, with Over 1.5, Over 2.5, and BTTS Yes hitting their marks at 89.5%, 72.0%, and 70.8% probability respectively.
IK brage| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.60 | 2.00 | 2.29 | 2.21 | 1.00 | 1.81 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 2.50 | 1.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 1.68 | 1.96 | 2.38 | 2.15 | 1.07 | 1.80 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-12pp vs league) | |||||
Orebro SK| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.17 | 1.67 | 1.27 | 1.47 | 1.07 | 1.87 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 1.43 | 1.71 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.09 | 1.65 | 1.08 | 1.33 | 1.09 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
| Orebro SK goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 4.4% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| 2 | 5.6% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 3.6% | 1.4% |
| 3 | 4.1% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
| 4 | 2.2% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
IK brage
Orebro SK
IK brage| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.1 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 24.9 | 25.2 | 24.5 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 10.7 | 11.0 | 10.5 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 21.0 | 24.0 | 19.5 |
| vs Similar (44) | 8.9 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 25.8 | 25.4 | 26.2 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 33% | 30% | 36% | 28% | 26% | 30% | 81% | 75% | 88% |
| % under line | 67% | 70% | 64% | 72% | 74% | 70% | 19% | 25% | 12% |
Orebro SK| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.3 | 10.3 | 8.6 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 24.1 | 23.7 | 24.4 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 6.0 | - | 6.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 28.0 | - | 28.0 |
| vs Similar (40) | 9.5 | 10.3 | 8.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 23.9 | 23.7 | 24.0 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 48% | 67% | 33% | 20% | 21% | 19% | 62% | 71% | 56% |
| % under line | 52% | 33% | 67% | 80% | 79% | 81% | 38% | 29% | 44% |
IK brage| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.83 | 0.71 | 1.14 | 0.31 | 0.56 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.50 | 0.86 | 0.69 | 1.15 | 0.33 | 0.60 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
Orebro SK| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.70 | 0.67 | 0.60 | 0.47 | 0.80 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.43 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.61 | 0.61 | 0.58 | 0.50 | 0.64 | 0.73 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
IK brage| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.10 | 1.17 | 1.57 | 1.07 | 0.69 | 1.25 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 1.18 | 1.11 | 1.69 | 1.00 | 0.73 | 1.20 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
Orebro SK| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.97 | 0.60 | 0.87 | 0.60 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 1.00 | 0.71 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.48 | 1.04 | 0.50 | 0.83 | 0.45 | 1.27 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 89.5% | 1.18 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.19 | +10.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 cards | 88.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 86.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 81.2% | 1.46 | 1.50 | 1.49 | 1.46 | 1.44 | 1.42 | +18.3% | - |
| Under 4.5 cards | 76.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 75.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 2.5 | 72.0% | 1.61 | 1.65 | 1.65 | 1.63 | 1.62 | 1.62 | +13.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 10.5 corners | 71.7% | 1.74 | 1.80 | 1.78 | 1.75 | 1.73 | 1.73 | +18.5% | - |
| BTTS Yes | 70.8% | 1.53 | 1.62 | 1.55 | 1.55 | 1.53 | 1.53 | +10.4% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/05/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 20/09/25 | H | 4-5 | |
| 30/05/25 | A | 3-3 | |
| 28/07/24 | H | 2-0 | |
| 28/04/24 | A | 2-1 | |
| 22/09/23 | H | 2-1 | |
| 15/04/23 | A | 0-2 |
IK brage| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 25/07/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 18/07/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 26/06/26 | H | 2-4 | |
| 21/06/26 | H | 5-1 | |
| 14/06/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 09/06/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 30/05/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 23/05/26 | A | 1-0 |
Orebro SK| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 03/08/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 27/07/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 19/07/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 27/06/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 22/06/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 14/06/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 10/06/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 31/05/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 26/05/26 | H | 1-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | IFK Norrkoping | 21 | 47 | 71% | 2.2 | 41 | 13 | +28 | 2.6 | 76% | 48% | 24% | 10.2 | 50% | 3.5 | 60% | 27.8 | 100% | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 55% |
| 2 | Falkenbergs FF | 21 | 38 | 52% | 1.8 | 41 | 30 | +11 | 3.4 | 90% | 71% | 43% | 9.0 | 40% | 1.8 | 10% | 20.3 | 67% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 3 | Varbergs BoIS FC | 21 | 37 | 52% | 1.8 | 38 | 27 | +11 | 3.1 | 81% | 71% | 43% | 7.8 | 36% | 3.9 | 64% | 30.8 | 100% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 47% |
| 4 | Ostersunds FK | 21 | 35 | 43% | 1.7 | 30 | 23 | +7 | 2.5 | 76% | 38% | 24% | 8.5 | 40% | 3.2 | 50% | 25.7 | 100% | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 53% |
| 5 | Osters IF | 21 | 33 | 48% | 1.6 | 32 | 30 | +2 | 3.0 | 71% | 62% | 38% | 11.8 | 89% | 2.9 | 33% | 24.5 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 6 | United Nordic | 21 | 32 | 38% | 1.5 | 32 | 30 | +2 | 3.0 | 86% | 48% | 38% | 10.1 | 62% | 2.9 | 38% | 29.8 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 49% |
| 7 | Landskrona BoIS | 21 | 31 | 38% | 1.5 | 27 | 22 | +5 | 2.3 | 71% | 38% | 19% | 9.8 | 38% | 3.5 | 38% | 28.2 | 75% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 57% |
| 8 | Oddevold | 21 | 29 | 33% | 1.4 | 34 | 31 | +3 | 3.1 | 76% | 62% | 48% | 10.1 | 50% | 2.4 | 22% | 25.4 | 100% | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 50% |
| 9 | Sandviken | 21 | 27 | 33% | 1.3 | 34 | 31 | +3 | 3.1 | 76% | 62% | 38% | 9.6 | 33% | 2.4 | 11% | 23.0 | 67% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 55% |
| 10 | Helsingborg | 21 | 26 | 33% | 1.2 | 34 | 41 | -7 | 3.6 | 95% | 67% | 48% | 9.2 | 60% | 5.0 | 83% | 26.0 | 100% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 44% |
| 11 | Ljungskile SK | 21 | 24 | 29% | 1.1 | 27 | 28 | -1 | 2.6 | 62% | 48% | 38% | 10.2 | 60% | 3.9 | 55% | 26.6 | 100% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 12 | Norrby IF | 21 | 23 | 19% | 1.1 | 25 | 28 | -3 | 2.5 | 76% | 43% | 33% | 7.3 | 33% | 2.3 | 33% | 21.5 | 50% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 44% |
| 13 | IFK Varnamo | 21 | 22 | 29% | 1.0 | 25 | 38 | -13 | 3.0 | 71% | 57% | 43% | 8.4 | 30% | 3.1 | 30% | 24.3 | 67% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 53% |
| 14 | IK brage | 21 | 21 | 24% | 1.0 | 35 | 42 | -7 | 3.7 | 81% | 76% | 52% | 8.7 | 33% | 4.0 | 60% | 27.3 | 100% | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 48% |
| 15 | Orebro SK | 21 | 20 | 19% | 1.0 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 2.6 | 71% | 48% | 29% | 9.2 | 44% | 3.2 | 44% | 23.3 | 67% | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 50% |
| 16 | GIF Sundsvall | 21 | 13 | 19% | 0.6 | 15 | 44 | -29 | 2.8 | 67% | 57% | 33% | 9.8 | 67% | 2.6 | 22% | 20.5 | 50% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.7 | 2.1 | 41% |