IK Brage hosts United Nordic in the Sweden: Superettan league. United Nordic has been unbeaten in their last 5 matches, drawing all 5, including a 0-0 result against Varbergs BoIS FC. In contrast, IK Brage comes off a draw against Orebro SK, where the score was 3-3. The model predicts a high-scoring match, with 3.4 expected goals and a most likely total of 3 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 10.6%. IK Brage has been scoring an average of 2.62 goals at home and conceding 2.31, while United Nordic has scored 1 goal away and conceded 1.25 against similar opponents.
The model's selections are Over 1.5 goals, with a probability of 86.3%, and Over 21.5 fouls, at 81.1%. The model predicts a home win, with a 43% chance, a draw at 24%, and an away win at 33%. IK Brage's home win percentage is 43%, the draw percentage is 24%, and the away win percentage is 33%.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, IK brage, failed to deliver, as United Nordic snatched a 1-2 away win, extending their unbeaten run. The model had picked a home win with a 43 % probability, but that call was wrong. Every suggested selection was settled: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.9 %, Under 7.5 hit at 97.7 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 96.3 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 95.8 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 94.4 %, Under 6.5 hit at 94.2 %, and Away under 3.5 goals hit at 92.3 %. The match’s final score of 1-2 confirmed the upset, with the pre-match probability of a home win proving inaccurate.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
IK brage win✗ Miss
42.6%
Avg Implied 38.4% · @ 2.39
Edge
+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.50
Pinnacle
2.47
Dafabet
2.44
Superbet
2.42
Betano
2.42
Draw✗ Miss
24.4%
Avg Implied 26.2% · @ 3.51
Edge
-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.70
Pinnacle
3.66
10Bet
3.65
Dafabet
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
United Nordic win✓ Hit
33.0%
Avg Implied 35.4% · @ 2.60
Edge
-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.71
Marathonbet
2.63
1xBet
2.63
BetVictor
2.63
888Sport
2.63
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
IK brage
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.87
2.21
2.07
1.00
1.69
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.33
1.00
3.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
1.70
1.81
2.31
2.00
1.14
1.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (United Nordic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
United Nordic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.38
1.33
1.73
1.36
1.00
1.30
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.38
1.33
1.73
1.36
1.00
1.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
29% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (IK brage) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.3%
@ 1.17+6.5%
Under 1.5
13.7%
@ 4.62-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.19
Pinnacle
1.18
888Sport
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Under
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Pinnacle
4.91
BetVictor
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
66.1%
@ 1.58+6.7%
Under 2.5
33.9%
@ 2.30-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.61
888Sport
1.60
Bet365
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.59
Under
Betfair
2.45
10Bet
2.40
Pinnacle
2.34
Betano
2.30
Bet365
2.30
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
44.2%
@ 2.40+5.6%
Under 3.5
55.8%
@ 1.51-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Pinnacle
2.47
888Sport
2.45
Betfair
2.45
10Bet
2.40
Under
10Bet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.55
Betano
1.53
Betfair
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.5%
@ 1.48+4.9%
No
32.5%
@ 2.48-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
888Sport
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50
William Hil
1.50
Superbet
1.49
No
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.50
BetVictor
2.50
10Bet
2.50
1xBet
2.47
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%@ 6.73+3.9%
2-1
8.7%@ 8.86+3.7%
1-2 ✓
7.6%@ 9.05+2.7%
2-2
6.9%@ 10.38+2.6%
2-0
5.5%@ 13.38+2.2%
3-1
5.3%@ 15.55+2.4%
1-0
5.1%@ 10.65+0.9%
0-1
4.3%@ 11.04+0.3%
IK brage goals ↓
United Nordic goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.3%
4.3%
4.2%
2.2%
0.9%
1
5.1%
11%
7.6%
4.0%
1.6%
2
5.5%
8.7%
6.9%
3.6%
1.4%
3
3.3%
5.3%
4.2%
2.2%
0.9%
4
1.5%
2.4%
1.9%
1.0%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = IK brage goals (down), columns = United Nordic goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
IFK Norrkoping
2.24
Falkenbergs FF
1.81
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.76
Ostersunds FK
1.67
Osters IF
1.57
United Nordic
1.52
Landskrona BoIS
1.48
Oddevold
1.38
Sandviken
1.29
Helsingborg
1.24
Ljungskile SK
1.14
Norrby IF
1.10
IFK Varnamo
1.05
IK brage
1.00
Orebro SK
0.95
GIF Sundsvall
0.62
IK brage is 0.52 points worse than United Nordic in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.52).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Falkenbergs FF
1.95
IFK Norrkoping
1.95
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.81
IK brage
1.67
Sandviken
1.62
Oddevold
1.62
Helsingborg
1.62
United Nordic
1.52
Osters IF
1.52
Ostersunds FK
1.43
Ljungskile SK
1.29
Landskrona BoIS
1.29
Norrby IF
1.19
IFK Varnamo
1.19
Orebro SK
1.00
GIF Sundsvall
0.71
IK brage is 0.14 goals better than United Nordic in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.52).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
IFK Norrkoping
0.62
Landskrona BoIS
1.05
Ostersunds FK
1.10
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.29
Norrby IF
1.33
Ljungskile SK
1.33
United Nordic
1.43
Osters IF
1.43
Falkenbergs FF
1.43
Sandviken
1.48
Oddevold
1.48
Orebro SK
1.57
IFK Varnamo
1.81
Helsingborg
1.95
IK brage
2.00
GIF Sundsvall
2.10
IK brage is 0.57 goals worse than United Nordic in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.43).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Landskrona BoIS
57%
Sandviken
55%
IFK Norrkoping
55%
IFK Varnamo
53%
Ostersunds FK
53%
Osters IF
50%
Orebro SK
50%
Falkenbergs FF
50%
Ljungskile SK
50%
Oddevold
50%
United Nordic
49%
IK brage
48%
Varbergs BoIS FC
47%
Helsingborg
44%
Norrby IF
44%
GIF Sundsvall
41%
IK brage is 1.3 percentage points worse than United Nordic in terms of average possession (48% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
IK brage
For 4.5 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 13.0 · Total 24.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
United Nordic
For 4.3 · Against 4.9 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.3 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.8 · Against 15.0 · Total 29.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
IK brage
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
8.8
8.9
1.7
1.7
1.7
24.0
24.6
23.4
vs Stronger (7)
10.7
11.0
10.5
2.1
3.0
1.8
21.0
24.0
19.5
vs Similar (43)
8.5
8.5
8.5
1.6
1.6
1.6
24.8
24.7
25.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
32%
33%
30%
26%
26%
26%
79%
71%
86%
% under line
68%
67%
70%
74%
74%
74%
21%
29%
14%
This opponent (United Nordic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
United Nordic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (21)
9.1
10.8
7.0
0.9
0.8
1.0
29.8
27.5
32.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
9.1
10.8
7.0
0.9
0.8
1.0
29.8
27.5
32.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
57%
75%
33%
10%
9%
10%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
43%
25%
67%
90%
91%
90%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (IK brage) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Osters IF
11.8
IFK Norrkoping
11.5
IFK Varnamo
11.0
Helsingborg
10.4
Landskrona BoIS
10.3
IK brage
10.3
Ljungskile SK
10.2
Varbergs BoIS FC
10.1
GIF Sundsvall
10.0
Sandviken
9.9
Oddevold
9.5
Ostersunds FK
9.4
Orebro SK
9.4
United Nordic
9.1
Norrby IF
9.0
Falkenbergs FF
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
IFK Norrkoping
4.2
Helsingborg
4.1
Landskrona BoIS
4.0
Osters IF
3.9
Ljungskile SK
3.8
Norrby IF
3.8
Varbergs BoIS FC
3.7
Orebro SK
3.7
IK brage
3.6
Ostersunds FK
3.4
IFK Varnamo
3.3
Sandviken
3.3
GIF Sundsvall
3.0
Oddevold
2.9
United Nordic
2.7
Falkenbergs FF
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
United Nordic
29.8
IFK Norrkoping
27.0
Ljungskile SK
26.6
Varbergs BoIS FC
26.6
Osters IF
25.2
Ostersunds FK
25.1
Norrby IF
24.3
Helsingborg
24.2
IK brage
24.1
Landskrona BoIS
23.9
Orebro SK
23.7
Sandviken
23.5
Falkenbergs FF
23.3
IFK Varnamo
22.8
Oddevold
21.4
GIF Sundsvall
21.1
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
38.9%
@ 1.94-8.9%
Under 9.5
61.1%
@ 1.78+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.98
1xBet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.97
Betano
1.91
Superbet
1.85
Under
Superbet
1.85
Betano
1.80
Pinnacle
1.76
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.73
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
44.9%
Under 3.5
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
81.1%
Under 21.5
18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
IK brage or Draw✗ Miss
67.0%
Avg Implied 64.6% · @ 1.44
Edge
+2.5%
43%
24%
33%
covers IK brage + Draw
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.44
1xBet
1.44
888Sport
1.44
IK brage or United Nordic✓ Hit
75.6%
Avg Implied 73.8% · @ 1.26
Edge
+1.7%
43%
24%
33%
covers IK brage + United Nordic
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Draw or United Nordic✓ Hit
57.4%
Avg Implied 61.6% · @ 1.51
Edge
-4.2%
43%
24%
33%
covers Draw + United Nordic
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.57
Betfair
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Marathonbet
1.52
1xBet
1.52
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
IK brage over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
83.7%
@ 1.19+5.7%
Under
16.3%
@ 4.24-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
888Sport
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.42
BetVictor
4.33
Bet365
4.33
1xBet
4.20
IK brage over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
54.2%
@ 1.97+6.9%
Under
45.8%
@ 1.77-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.04
Betfair
2.00
Betano
1.98
Marathonbet
1.97
1xBet
1.97
Under
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
1xBet
1.78
Betano
1.78
IK brage over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
27.4%
@ 4.03+4.3%
Under
72.6%
@ 1.21-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.33
BetVictor
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Under
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.20
IK brage over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
11.1%
@ 9.52+1.3%
Under
88.9%
@ 1.04-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
888Sport
10.00
Betfair
9.50
1xBet
9.40
Betano
7.70
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
888Sport
1.05
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.02
United Nordic over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.5%
@ 1.21+2.9%
Under
20.5%
@ 3.97-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
888Sport
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Under
Pinnacle
4.23
BetVictor
4.10
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
4.00
United Nordic over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
47.0%
@ 2.07+2.0%
Under
53.0%
@ 1.70-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.11
888Sport
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Betfair
2.10
1xBet
2.08
Under
Pinnacle
1.73
10Bet
1.73
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.70
BetVictor
1.70
United Nordic over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
21.3%
@ 4.36-0.1%
Under
78.7%
@ 1.18+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
4.60
Bet365
4.50
BetVictor
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.40
Under
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
United Nordic over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.7%
@ 10.29-1.5%
Under
92.3%
@ 1.04+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
888Sport
12.00
Betfair
9.50
1xBet
8.70
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.04
888Sport
1.04
1xBet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to IK brage, so a minus line means IK brage give that many goals of a start and United Nordic receive them. At -1, IK brage must win by two or more to land; a one-goal IK brage win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (IK brage)Actual: United Nordic
IK brage -2
10.4%
@ 9.80+1.2%
Draw -2
13.1%
@ 7.05+0.3%
United Nordic +2
76.6%
@ 1.16-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
11.00
Bet365
10.00
Marathonbet
8.40
Draw
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.65
Away
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Handicap -1 (IK brage)Actual: United Nordic
IK brage -1
23.4%
@ 4.50+3.5%
Draw -1
19.2%
@ 4.31-1.7%
United Nordic +1
57.4%
@ 1.51-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
4.75
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.25
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.20
Away
Bet365
1.53
Marathonbet
1.52
Betfair
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Handicap +1 (IK brage)Actual: Draw
IK brage +1
67.0%
@ 1.46+5.8%
Draw +1
16.6%
@ 4.42-3.6%
United Nordic -1
16.4%
@ 4.76-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.50
Betfair
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.40
Betfair
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Away
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Betfair
4.50
Handicap +2 (IK brage)Actual: IK brage
IK brage +2
83.6%
@ 1.13+6.2%
Draw +2
10.0%
@ 6.77-3.0%
United Nordic -2
6.4%
@ 9.07-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
Draw
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Marathonbet
4.80
Away
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
10.00
Marathonbet
6.20
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
IK brage
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.77
0.79
1.00
0.31
0.56
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (27)
0.56
0.78
0.77
1.00
0.36
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (United Nordic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
United Nordic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.52
0.64
0.55
0.20
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.43
0.52
0.64
0.55
0.20
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
62% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (IK brage) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
71.2%
@ 1.27-1.8%
Under 0.5
28.8%
@ 3.42+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
BetVictor
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Under
Betfair
3.80
William Hil
3.50
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.45
BetVictor
3.40
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
36.0%
@ 2.27-4.8%
Under 1.5
64.0%
@ 1.56+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.36
Betano
2.35
1xBet
2.29
Marathonbet
2.29
BetVictor
2.25
Under
10Bet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.58
Superbet
1.57
William Hil
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.0%
@ 5.19-3.7%
Under 2.5
86.0%
@ 1.12+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.75
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
William Hil
5.00
Marathonbet
5.00
Under
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.14
William Hil
1.12
Betfair
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
IK brage over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
50.2%
@ 1.82-0.7%
Under
49.8%
@ 1.89+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
Betano
1.87
Marathonbet
1.84
Superbet
1.83
10Bet
1.80
Under
1xBet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.91
10Bet
1.90
Superbet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.84
IK brage over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
15.0%
@ 5.19-2.9%
Under
85.0%
@ 1.13+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.35
10Bet
5.00
Betano
4.90
Under
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
IK brage over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.7%
@ 12.50-3.9%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.02+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
15.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.02
United Nordic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
46.1%
@ 1.88-3.1%
Under
53.9%
@ 1.82+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathonbet
1.89
Superbet
1.88
10Bet
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
10Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Superbet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.79
United Nordic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
12.4%
@ 5.42-4.7%
Under
87.6%
@ 1.12+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.75
1xBet
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Betano
5.20
Under
1xBet
1.13
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
United Nordic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 13.62-4.8%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
17.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
IK brage
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.10
1.43
1.07
0.69
1.12
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.67
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (27)
1.15
1.04
1.54
1.00
0.79
1.07
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (United Nordic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
United Nordic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.95
0.81
1.09
0.82
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.95
0.81
1.09
0.82
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
48% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (IK brage) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.2%
@ 1.16+0.1%
Under 0.5
19.8%
@ 4.67-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
Under
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.65
Marathonbet
4.65
1xBet
4.65
William Hil
4.60
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
45.8%
@ 1.78-6.4%
Under 1.5
54.2%
@ 1.94+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.79
Superbet
1.78
William Hil
1.75
Under
Betano
1.98
William Hil
1.95
1xBet
1.94
Marathonbet
1.94
Superbet
1.92
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
20.6%
@ 3.34-6.9%
Under 2.5
79.4%
@ 1.27+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.40
William Hil
3.40
Marathonbet
3.30
1xBet
3.30
Under
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
IK brage over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
57.0%
@ 1.58-1.7%
Under
43.0%
@ 2.24+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.59
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Under
1xBet
2.25
Betano
2.25
Superbet
2.22
IK brage over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
18.9%
@ 3.68-6.2%
Under
81.1%
@ 1.23+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.80
1xBet
3.70
Betano
3.55
Under
Betano
1.26
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
IK brage over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.2%
@ 7.80-7.7%
Under
95.8%
@ 1.05+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
7.80
Under
Betano
1.05
United Nordic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
52.7%
@ 1.61-4.7%
Under
47.3%
@ 2.17+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.62
Superbet
1.62
Betano
1.60
Under
Betano
2.20
1xBet
2.16
Superbet
2.15
United Nordic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
18.1%
@ 3.93-5.5%
Under
81.9%
@ 1.21+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.10
1xBet
4.00
Betano
3.70
Under
Betano
1.24
Marathonbet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
United Nordic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.6%
@ 8.25-5.6%
Under
94.4%
@ 1.04+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.04
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.3%
1.02
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.02
-
-
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.8%
1.05
Betano
1.05
-
-
-
-
+7.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.4%
1.04
Betano
1.04
-
-
-
-
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
94.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
92.3%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.04
888Sport
1.04
1xBet
1.02
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
88.9%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
888Sport
1.05
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-1.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.6%
1.12
1xBet
1.13
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
-
+4.7%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
87.0%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Bet365
1.07
888Sport
1.06
BetVictor
1.04
-1.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
86.3%
1.17
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.19
Pinnacle
1.18
888Sport
1.18
Bet365
1.17
+6.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.0%
1.12
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.14
William Hil
1.12
Betfair
1.11
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.0%
1.13
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
83.7%
1.19
Betano
1.21
888Sport
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
83.6%
1.13
Betfair
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
-
-
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
82.0%
1.29
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
-
+11.0%
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
81.9%
1.21
Betano
1.24
Marathonbet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
-
-
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.1%
1.23
Betano
1.26
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
-
-
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.2%
1.16
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
79.5%
1.21
Betano
1.23
888Sport
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
1xBet
1.21
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.4%
1.27
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
+6.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
78.7%
1.18
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
76.6%
1.16
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
-
-
-1.4%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
75.6%
1.26
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.26
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
74.4%
1.19
10Bet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
-3.5%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
72.7%
1.47
Superbet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.50
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
+9.9%
-
Home under 2.5 goals
72.6%
1.21
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.20
-4.3%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.2%
1.27
Betano
1.31
BetVictor
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.28
-1.8%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
IK brage
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Felix Hörberg67%
Albin Sporrong33%
Gideon Granström33%
Alexander Zetterstrom0%
Pontus Jonsson0%
Anton Lundin0%
Viktor Frodig0%
Tobias Stagaard0%
Malte Persson0%
Gustav Berggren0%
Gustav Nordh0%
Anders Hellblom0%
Alex Mortensen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Anton Lundin67%
Alexander Zetterstrom33%
Tobias Stagaard33%
Gustav Berggren33%
Pontus Jonsson0%
Albin Sporrong0%
Felix Hörberg0%
Viktor Frodig0%
Malte Persson0%
Gustav Nordh0%
Gideon Granström0%
Anders Hellblom0%
Alex Mortensen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alexander Zetterstrom33%
Anton Lundin33%
Albin Sporrong33%
Gustav Berggren33%
Pontus Jonsson0%
Felix Hörberg0%
Viktor Frodig0%
Tobias Stagaard0%
Malte Persson0%
Gustav Nordh0%
Gideon Granström0%
Anders Hellblom0%
Alex Mortensen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Alex Mortensen33%
Alexander Zetterstrom0%
Pontus Jonsson0%
Anton Lundin0%
Albin Sporrong0%
Felix Hörberg0%
Viktor Frodig0%
Tobias Stagaard0%
Malte Persson0%
Gustav Berggren0%
Gustav Nordh0%
Gideon Granström0%
Anders Hellblom0%
United Nordic
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kalipha Jawla50%
Lorent Mehmeti25%
Amar Eminovic25%
William Eskelinen0%
Elias Andersson0%
Niklas Söderberg0%
Teo Grönborg0%
Mohammad Fazal0%
Aziz Harabi0%
Shirko Shhab0%
Matteus Behnan0%
Christian Aphrem0%
Emanuel Swedi0%
Nhome Daneyl0%
Jonathan Gursac0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mohammad Fazal33%
Shirko Shhab33%
Jonathan Gursac33%
Teo Grönborg25%
Lorent Mehmeti25%
Matteus Behnan25%
William Eskelinen0%
Elias Andersson0%
Niklas Söderberg0%
Aziz Harabi0%
Kalipha Jawla0%
Amar Eminovic0%
Christian Aphrem0%
Emanuel Swedi0%
Nhome Daneyl0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Christian Aphrem25%
William Eskelinen0%
Elias Andersson0%
Niklas Söderberg0%
Teo Grönborg0%
Mohammad Fazal0%
Aziz Harabi0%
Lorent Mehmeti0%
Kalipha Jawla0%
Amar Eminovic0%
Shirko Shhab0%
Matteus Behnan0%
Emanuel Swedi0%
Nhome Daneyl0%
Jonathan Gursac0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Teo Grönborg25%
Kalipha Jawla25%
William Eskelinen0%
Elias Andersson0%
Niklas Söderberg0%
Mohammad Fazal0%
Aziz Harabi0%
Lorent Mehmeti0%
Amar Eminovic0%
Shirko Shhab0%
Matteus Behnan0%
Christian Aphrem0%
Emanuel Swedi0%
Nhome Daneyl0%
Jonathan Gursac0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IN (25)
€9m
HEL (25)
€7m
LB (20)
€6m
VBF (24)
€6m
FF (19)
€5m
OI (23)
€5m
ODD (23)
€5m
IV (21)
€5m
OS (23)
€5m
IB (23)
€5m
SAN (20)
€4m
GS (22)
€4m
OF (21)
€4m
LS (22)
€3m
UN (17)
€3m
NI (17)
€3m
IK brage's squad is €1m more valuable than United Nordic's (€5m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IN (8)
€3m
IV (7)
€2m
HEL (8)
€2m
FF (8)
€2m
LB (5)
€2m
VBF (7)
€2m
OI (7)
€2m
ODD (6)
€1m
SAN (5)
€1m
OS (6)
€1m
GS (8)
€1m
NI (6)
€1m
LS (7)
€1m
IB (5)
€1m
OF (5)
€1m
UN (4)
€0m
IK brage and United Nordic have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IN (8)
€3m
HEL (7)
€2m
VBF (8)
€2m
LB (7)
€2m
OF (6)
€2m
OI (6)
€2m
IB (7)
€1m
ODD (7)
€1m
GS (5)
€1m
SAN (6)
€1m
OS (5)
€1m
LS (4)
€1m
UN (4)
€1m
IV (4)
€1m
FF (2)
€1m
NI (3)
€0m
IK brage and United Nordic have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IN (9)
€3m
FF (9)
€3m
OS (12)
€3m
ODD (10)
€3m
HEL (10)
€2m
LB (8)
€2m
IB (11)
€2m
VBF (9)
€2m
OI (10)
€2m
UN (9)
€2m
SAN (9)
€2m
IV (10)
€2m
OF (10)
€2m
GS (9)
€2m
LS (11)
€2m
NI (8)
€1m
IK brage and United Nordic have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Sweden: Superettan 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Sweden: Superettan stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
IFK Norrkoping
Falkenbergs FF
Varbergs BoIS FC
Ostersunds FK
Osters IF
Landskrona BoIS
Oddevold
Sandviken
Helsingborg
Ljungskile SK
Norrby IF
IFK Varnamo
Orebro SK
GIF Sundsvall