Iliria Fushë-Krujë are favoured to win this home fixture against FK Kukësi, with a 52 % chance of victory, 29 % for a draw and 19 % for an away win. The match is expected to see 2.3 goals, centring on a 2-goal total that carries a 28 % probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 for Iliria, with a 13.9 % chance. Iliria’s home form shows they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against similarly ranked opposition, while FK Kukësi, playing away, averages 0.62 scored and 1.12 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7 %), Away under 3.5 goals (99.1 %), Under 6.5 (99.1 %), Under 5.5 (97.0 %), Away under 2.5 goals (95.2 %), Home +2 handicap (93.8 %), Home under 3.5 goals (93.5 %) and Under 4.5 (91.7 %). Iliria’s recent form shows a loss in their last match, whereas FK Kukësi are coming off a win.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Iliria Fushë-Krujë win
52.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Kukesi win
18.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.03
1.20
1.07
0.80
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.33
0.50
1.50
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (24)
1.17
0.96
1.31
1.00
1.00
0.91
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Kukesi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Kukesi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.43
1.33
1.00
0.67
1.87
vs Stronger (11)
0.73
2.18
0.75
1.25
0.71
2.71
vs Similar (19)
1.16
1.00
1.55
0.91
0.62
1.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Iliria Fushë-Krujë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
67.9%
Under 1.5
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
40.2%
Under 2.5
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.9%
Under 3.5
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
43.9%
No
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
13.9%
1-1
13.3%
0-0
11.3%
2-0
11.2%
2-1
9.0%
0-1
6.9%
3-0
5.6%
1-2
4.8%
Iliria Fushë-Krujë goals ↓
FK Kukesi goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
6.9%
3.2%
0.9%
0.2%
1
14%
13%
4.8%
1.3%
0.3%
2
11%
9.0%
3.6%
1.0%
0.2%
3
5.6%
4.5%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
4
2.1%
1.7%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Iliria Fushë-Krujë goals (down), columns = FK Kukesi goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Pogradeci
2.06
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.36
Flamurtari
1.23
Oriku
1.23
Bylis
1.23
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.23
Besa Kavajë
1.18
Kastrioti Krujë
1.18
Burreli
1.12
Korabi Peshkopi
1.09
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
FK Kukesi
1.00
Iliria Fushë-Krujë is 0.36 points better than FK Kukesi in terms of average points per game (1.36 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Pogradeci
1.91
Kastrioti Krujë
1.33
Besa Kavajë
1.24
Flamurtari
1.10
Oriku
1.10
Bylis
1.10
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.10
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
FK Kukesi
0.97
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.97
Korabi Peshkopi
0.94
Burreli
0.82
Iliria Fushë-Krujë is 0.00 goals worse than FK Kukesi in terms of goals scored per game (0.97 vs 0.97).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Pogradeci
0.94
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.00
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
Korabi Peshkopi
1.18
Flamurtari
1.23
Oriku
1.23
Bylis
1.23
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.23
Besa Kavajë
1.30
Burreli
1.36
FK Kukesi
1.46
Kastrioti Krujë
1.73
Iliria Fushë-Krujë is 0.46 goals better than FK Kukesi in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.46).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Iliria Fushë-Krujë or Draw
81.1%
Avg Implied -
52%
29%
19%
covers Iliria Fushë-Krujë + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Iliria Fushë-Krujë or FK Kukesi
71.3%
Avg Implied -
52%
29%
19%
covers Iliria Fushë-Krujë + FK Kukesi
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FK Kukesi
47.7%
Avg Implied -
52%
29%
19%
covers Draw + FK Kukesi
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Iliria Fushë-Krujë over/under 0.5
Over
77.5%
Under
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iliria Fushë-Krujë over/under 1.5
Over
43.9%
Under
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iliria Fushë-Krujë over/under 2.5
Over
18.9%
Under
81.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iliria Fushë-Krujë over/under 3.5
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Kukesi over/under 0.5
Over
55.1%
Under
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Kukesi over/under 1.5
Over
19.2%
Under
80.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Kukesi over/under 2.5
Over
4.8%
Under
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Kukesi over/under 3.5
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Iliria Fushë-Krujë, so a minus line means Iliria Fushë-Krujë give that many goals of a start and FK Kukesi receive them. At -1, Iliria Fushë-Krujë must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Iliria Fushë-Krujë win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Iliria Fushë-Krujë)
Iliria Fushë-Krujë -2
11.1%
Draw -2
16.4%
FK Kukesi +2
72.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Iliria Fushë-Krujë)
Iliria Fushë-Krujë -1
27.5%
Draw -1
24.8%
FK Kukesi +1
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Iliria Fushë-Krujë)
Iliria Fushë-Krujë +1
81.1%
Draw +1
12.8%
FK Kukesi -1
6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Iliria Fushë-Krujë)
Iliria Fushë-Krujë +2
93.8%
Draw +2
4.7%
FK Kukesi -2
1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.27
0.47
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.42
0.46
0.46
0.46
0.36
0.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Kukesi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Kukesi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.53
0.47
0.40
1.07
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
1.27
0.50
0.25
0.29
1.86
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.47
0.55
0.55
0.50
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Iliria Fushë-Krujë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
65.2%
Under 0.5
34.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
29.7%
Under 1.5
70.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
9.2%
Under 2.5
90.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Iliria Fushë-Krujë over/under 0.5 HT
Over
48.2%
Under
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iliria Fushë-Krujë over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.3%
Under
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iliria Fushë-Krujë over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Kukesi over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.7%
Under
63.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Kukesi over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Kukesi over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.57
0.73
0.60
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.83
0.00
1.00
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (24)
0.75
0.50
0.85
0.54
0.64
0.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Kukesi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Kukesi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.67
0.80
0.53
0.27
0.80
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
0.91
0.25
1.00
0.43
0.86
vs Similar (19)
0.63
0.53
1.00
0.36
0.12
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Iliria Fushë-Krujë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.7%
Under 0.5
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
40.7%
Under 1.5
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.3%
Under 2.5
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Iliria Fushë-Krujë over/under 0.5 2H
Over
55.7%
Under
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iliria Fushë-Krujë over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.4%
Under
79.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iliria Fushë-Krujë over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.8%
Under
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Kukesi over/under 0.5 2H
Over
44.8%
Under
55.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Kukesi over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.9%
Under
89.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Kukesi over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 1.5 HT goals
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BK (21)
€2m
POG (14)
€2m
IF (26)
€2m
KK (18)
€2m
KP (24)
€2m
BUR (21)
€1m
FK (20)
€1m
Iliria Fushë-Krujë and FK Kukesi have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BK (6)
€1m
POG (5)
€1m
IF (9)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
KP (9)
€1m
FK (6)
€0m
BUR (5)
€0m
Iliria Fushë-Krujë and FK Kukesi have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KK (7)
€1m
BK (7)
€1m
BUR (8)
€0m
KP (4)
€0m
POG (2)
€0m
IF (6)
€0m
FK (4)
€0m
Iliria Fushë-Krujë and FK Kukesi have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BK (8)
€1m
POG (7)
€1m
IF (11)
€1m
KP (11)
€1m
FK (10)
€1m
BUR (8)
€1m
KK (4)
€0m
Iliria Fushë-Krujë and FK Kukesi have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Albania: 1st Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: 1st Division stats & trends →