The clash between Iliria Fushë-Krujë and Pogradeci is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. Home and away win probabilities sit at 34 % and 37 % respectively, while a draw is 29 %. The expected total goals hover around 2.5, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14 % chance. Iliria, playing at home against a stronger side, has averaged zero goals scored and two conceded, whereas Pogradeci, on the road against a weaker opponent, has netted two and allowed 1.56. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5 %), Under 6.5 (98.5 %), Home under 3.5 goals (96.3 %), Away under 3.5 goals (95.7 %), Under 5.5 (95.6 %), Under 4.5 (88.7 %), Home under 2.5 goals (87.2 %), and Away under 2.5 goals (85.8 %). Both teams have recently come off defeats, with Iliria losing 0-2 to Besa Kavajë and Pogradeci falling 0-1 to Teuta Durrës, adding to the uncertainty of the outcome.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Iliria Fushë-Krujë win
33.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci win
36.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.03
1.20
1.07
0.80
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.33
0.50
1.50
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (24)
1.17
0.96
1.31
1.00
1.00
0.91
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogradeci) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pogradeci
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
0.90
2.40
0.40
1.60
1.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.89
0.33
0.33
1.00
1.17
vs Weaker (21)
2.52
0.90
2.92
0.42
2.00
1.56
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Iliria Fushë-Krujë) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.1%
Under 1.5
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
46.4%
Under 2.5
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
24.9%
Under 3.5
75.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.7%
No
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
0-0
9.2%
0-1
9.1%
1-0
8.6%
1-2
8.3%
2-1
7.9%
0-2
6.7%
2-0
6.1%
Iliria Fushë-Krujë goals ↓
Pogradeci goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.2%
9.1%
6.7%
2.9%
0.9%
1
8.6%
14%
8.3%
3.6%
1.2%
2
6.1%
7.9%
5.1%
2.2%
0.7%
3
2.5%
3.2%
2.1%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.8%
1.0%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Iliria Fushë-Krujë goals (down), columns = Pogradeci goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Pogradeci
2.06
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.36
Flamurtari
1.23
Oriku
1.23
Bylis
1.23
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.23
Besa Kavajë
1.18
Kastrioti Krujë
1.18
Burreli
1.12
Korabi Peshkopi
1.09
FK Kukesi
1.00
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
Iliria Fushë-Krujë is 0.70 points worse than Pogradeci in terms of average points per game (1.36 vs 2.06).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Pogradeci
1.91
Kastrioti Krujë
1.33
Besa Kavajë
1.24
Flamurtari
1.10
Oriku
1.10
Bylis
1.10
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.10
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
FK Kukesi
0.97
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.97
Korabi Peshkopi
0.94
Burreli
0.82
Iliria Fushë-Krujë is 0.94 goals worse than Pogradeci in terms of goals scored per game (0.97 vs 1.91).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Pogradeci
0.94
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.00
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
Korabi Peshkopi
1.18
Flamurtari
1.23
Oriku
1.23
Bylis
1.23
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.23
Besa Kavajë
1.30
Burreli
1.36
FK Kukesi
1.46
Kastrioti Krujë
1.73
Iliria Fushë-Krujë is 0.06 goals worse than Pogradeci in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.94).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Iliria Fushë-Krujë or Draw
63.2%
Avg Implied -
34%
29%
37%
covers Iliria Fushë-Krujë + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Iliria Fushë-Krujë or Pogradeci
70.6%
Avg Implied -
34%
29%
37%
covers Iliria Fushë-Krujë + Pogradeci
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Pogradeci
66.2%
Avg Implied -
34%
29%
37%
covers Draw + Pogradeci
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Iliria Fushë-Krujë over/under 0.5
Over
70.9%
Under
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iliria Fushë-Krujë over/under 1.5
Over
34.9%
Under
65.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iliria Fushë-Krujë over/under 2.5
Over
12.8%
Under
87.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iliria Fushë-Krujë over/under 3.5
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 0.5
Over
72.6%
Under
27.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 1.5
Over
37.2%
Under
62.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 2.5
Over
14.2%
Under
85.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 3.5
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Iliria Fushë-Krujë, so a minus line means Iliria Fushë-Krujë give that many goals of a start and Pogradeci receive them. At -1, Iliria Fushë-Krujë must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Iliria Fushë-Krujë win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Iliria Fushë-Krujë)
Iliria Fushë-Krujë -2
5.0%
Draw -2
10.0%
Pogradeci +2
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Iliria Fushë-Krujë)
Iliria Fushë-Krujë -1
15.0%
Draw -1
18.8%
Pogradeci +1
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Iliria Fushë-Krujë)
Iliria Fushë-Krujë +1
63.2%
Draw +1
19.8%
Pogradeci -1
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Iliria Fushë-Krujë)
Iliria Fushë-Krujë +2
83.0%
Draw +2
11.1%
Pogradeci -2
5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.27
0.47
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.42
0.46
0.46
0.46
0.36
0.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogradeci) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pogradeci
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.43
1.20
0.27
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.11
0.33
0.00
0.33
0.17
0.33
vs Weaker (21)
1.33
0.48
1.50
0.25
1.11
0.78
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Iliria Fushë-Krujë) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
68.9%
Under 0.5
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
32.5%
Under 1.5
67.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.1%
Under 2.5
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Iliria Fushë-Krujë over/under 0.5 HT
Over
41.5%
Under
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iliria Fushë-Krujë over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.8%
Under
90.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iliria Fushë-Krujë over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 0.5 HT
Over
46.8%
Under
53.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.5%
Under
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.57
0.73
0.60
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.83
0.00
1.00
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (24)
0.75
0.50
0.85
0.54
0.64
0.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogradeci) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pogradeci
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.47
1.20
0.13
0.87
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.67
0.56
0.33
0.00
0.83
0.83
vs Weaker (21)
1.19
0.43
1.42
0.17
0.89
0.78
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Iliria Fushë-Krujë) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.7%
Under 0.5
23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
44.6%
Under 1.5
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.2%
Under 2.5
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Iliria Fushë-Krujë over/under 0.5 2H
Over
47.9%
Under
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iliria Fushë-Krujë over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.6%
Under
84.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iliria Fushë-Krujë over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 0.5 2H
Over
56.3%
Under
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 1.5 2H
Over
19.4%
Under
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.8%
Under
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BK (21)
€2m
POG (14)
€2m
IF (26)
€2m
KK (18)
€2m
KP (24)
€2m
BUR (21)
€1m
FK (20)
€1m
Iliria Fushë-Krujë and Pogradeci have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BK (6)
€1m
POG (5)
€1m
IF (9)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
KP (9)
€1m
FK (6)
€0m
BUR (5)
€0m
Iliria Fushë-Krujë and Pogradeci have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KK (7)
€1m
BK (7)
€1m
BUR (8)
€0m
KP (4)
€0m
POG (2)
€0m
IF (6)
€0m
FK (4)
€0m
Iliria Fushë-Krujë and Pogradeci have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BK (8)
€1m
POG (7)
€1m
IF (11)
€1m
KP (11)
€1m
FK (10)
€1m
BUR (8)
€1m
KK (4)
€0m
Iliria Fushë-Krujë and Pogradeci have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Albania: 1st Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: 1st Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Burreli
Korabi Peshkopi
Flamurtari
Oriku
Bylis
Kastrioti Krujë
Besëlidhja Lezhë
FK Kukesi
Sopoti Librazhd
Besa Kavajë