Ilves are the clear favourites, a 73% chance of victory that the model flags as the most likely result. Their home form is solid, scoring 1.85 goals per game and conceding 1.23 against similar opposition, while FF Jaro’s away record is weak, netting only 0.92 and leaking 2.08. The venue advantage is obvious: Ilves have a 73%home win probability, 18% draw, 9% away win. The expected total is 3.1 goals, with the most probable total of 2 goals at 23%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0, a 12.8% chance. The model’s suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals (99.4%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.3%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.7%) with a 7% edge, Under 7.5 (98.6%), Home +2 handicap (97.5%), Away under 2.5 goals (96.3%) with a 6% edge, Under 6.5 (96.2%) with a 5% edge, and Home under 2.5 HT goals (94.6%) with a 5% edge. Ilves’ recent 1-2 loss to HJK Helsinki after three straight defeats and FF Jaro’s five-match losing streak, ending 0-2 against Mariehamn, underscore the disparity in form that drives the model’s confidence.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ilves win
73.3%
Avg Implied 62.3% · @ 1.48
Edge
+11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.52
Dafabet
1.52
Betano
1.52
Pinnacle
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Draw
18.0%
Avg Implied 21.2% · @ 4.34
Edge
-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
4.60
Pinnacle
4.56
Betfair
4.40
Marathonbet
4.40
1xBet
4.40
FF Jaro win
8.8%
Avg Implied 16.5% · @ 5.58
Edge
-7.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
5.91
Pinnacle
5.90
Marathonbet
5.90
Dafabet
5.80
Betfair
5.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ilves
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.60
1.80
1.13
1.47
2.07
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
1.69
1.69
1.85
1.23
1.54
2.15
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (FF Jaro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FF Jaro
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.93
1.36
1.57
1.00
2.25
vs Stronger (6)
1.33
2.83
1.50
3.00
1.25
2.75
vs Similar (24)
1.12
1.71
1.33
1.33
0.92
2.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.1%
@ 1.15+1.6%
Under 1.5
17.9%
@ 4.74-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
Pinnacle
1.19
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Unibet
1.11
Under
Unibet
5.60
Pinnacle
4.71
1xBet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.50
Betano
4.40
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.5%
@ 1.56-0.6%
Under 2.5
40.5%
@ 2.35+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.61
1xBet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.59
Betano
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Under
Unibet
2.55
Betano
2.35
Pinnacle
2.34
Marathonbet
2.31
1xBet
2.31
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.1%
@ 2.35-2.4%
Under 3.5
62.9%
@ 1.53+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.51
Betano
2.42
1xBet
2.34
Marathonbet
2.34
Unibet
2.12
Under
Unibet
1.62
Betano
1.55
Pinnacle
1.53
Marathonbet
1.48
1xBet
1.48
Both teams to score
Yes
47.3%
@ 1.65-8.8%
No
52.7%
@ 2.11+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Marathonbet
1.68
1xBet
1.68
Betfair
1.67
Betano
1.67
William Hil
1.67
No
Unibet
2.28
William Hil
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.06
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.8%@ 7.40+6.9%
3-0
10.1%@ 10.19+5.8%
1-0
10.1%@ 7.57+4.3%
2-1
9.2%@ 7.21+3.2%
1-1
8.6%@ 7.69+2.9%
3-1
7.3%@ 10.05+2.9%
4-0
6.0%@ 17.63+3.5%
0-0
5.4%@ 14.02+2.2%
Ilves goals ↓
FF Jaro goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.4%
2.5%
1.2%
0.3%
0.1%
1
10%
8.6%
2.8%
0.7%
0.1%
2
13%
9.2%
3.3%
0.8%
0.1%
3
10%
7.3%
2.6%
0.6%
0.1%
4
6.0%
4.3%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ilves goals (down), columns = FF Jaro goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
KuPS
1.95
Inter Turku
1.91
HJK Helsinki
1.68
Gnistan
1.64
AC Oulu
1.55
VPS
1.50
Lahti
1.45
Turku PS
1.41
Ilves
1.14
SJK
0.86
FF Jaro
0.68
Mariehamn
0.64
Ilves is 0.45 points better than FF Jaro in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 0.68).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KuPS
1.73
HJK Helsinki
1.64
Gnistan
1.64
Ilves
1.55
VPS
1.32
Inter Turku
1.32
Turku PS
1.27
Lahti
1.18
SJK
1.14
AC Oulu
1.14
FF Jaro
0.82
Mariehamn
0.77
Ilves is 0.73 goals better than FF Jaro in terms of goals scored per game (1.55 vs 0.82).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Inter Turku
0.73
Lahti
0.86
VPS
1.00
KuPS
1.05
Turku PS
1.05
AC Oulu
1.14
HJK Helsinki
1.23
Gnistan
1.32
SJK
1.50
Ilves
1.68
Mariehamn
1.95
FF Jaro
2.00
Ilves is 0.32 goals better than FF Jaro in terms of goals conceded per game (1.68 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Inter Turku
58%
KuPS
57%
Lahti
56%
HJK Helsinki
55%
SJK
50%
Turku PS
50%
Ilves
49%
VPS
48%
AC Oulu
48%
FF Jaro
47%
Mariehamn
45%
Gnistan
44%
Ilves is 2.7 percentage points better than FF Jaro in terms of average possession (49% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ilves
For 3.7 · Against 4.6 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.1 · Against 9.9 · Total 19.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FF Jaro
For 4.0 · Against 4.4 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 8.8 · Total 19.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ilves
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.5
10.3
1.7
1.6
1.8
19.1
18.9
19.2
vs Stronger (6)
10.0
10.0
10.0
2.5
1.7
3.3
19.5
17.5
21.5
vs Similar (41)
10.6
10.6
10.6
1.6
1.8
1.5
18.9
19.2
18.7
vs Weaker (3)
9.0
-
9.0
1.3
0.0
4.0
20.0
-
20.0
% over line
52%
36%
67%
26%
20%
32%
43%
45%
42%
% under line
48%
64%
33%
74%
80%
68%
57%
55%
58%
This opponent (FF Jaro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FF Jaro
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.2
9.8
1.3
1.6
1.0
18.4
18.9
17.6
vs Stronger (9)
10.3
9.0
13.0
1.0
2.0
0.5
17.0
20.0
11.0
vs Similar (40)
10.0
10.5
9.3
1.4
1.6
1.2
18.6
18.7
18.6
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
45%
50%
38%
16%
24%
8%
35%
33%
38%
% under line
55%
50%
62%
84%
76%
92%
65%
67%
62%
This opponent (Ilves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Gnistan
11.5
Inter Turku
10.6
Mariehamn
10.3
SJK
10.1
Ilves
10.1
AC Oulu
10.1
FF Jaro
10.1
HJK Helsinki
9.9
VPS
9.8
KuPS
9.8
Lahti
9.8
Turku PS
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lahti
4.5
Turku PS
4.3
Gnistan
4.0
AC Oulu
3.9
SJK
3.9
Mariehamn
3.9
Ilves
3.8
Inter Turku
3.8
VPS
3.6
FF Jaro
3.3
KuPS
3.2
HJK Helsinki
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SJK
23.8
Ilves
23.2
Inter Turku
23.2
Lahti
23.1
AC Oulu
22.7
Gnistan
22.5
VPS
22.4
KuPS
22.0
Mariehamn
21.9
Turku PS
21.8
HJK Helsinki
20.5
FF Jaro
18.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
39.9%
@ 1.49-21.6%
Under 9.5
60.1%
@ 2.38+21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.49
Under
Unibet
2.38
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
30.8%
Under 3.5
69.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
25.8%
Under 21.5
74.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ilves or Draw
91.2%
Avg Implied 83.5% · @ 1.11
Edge
+7.7%
73%
18%
9%
covers Ilves + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.16
William Hil
1.12
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Ilves or FF Jaro
82.0%
Avg Implied 79.1% · @ 1.18
Edge
+2.9%
73%
18%
9%
covers Ilves + FF Jaro
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.20
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Unibet
1.17
Draw or FF Jaro
26.7%
Avg Implied 37.3% · @ 2.49
Edge
-10.6%
73%
18%
9%
covers Draw + FF Jaro
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.60
1xBet
2.53
Marathonbet
2.53
Betfair
2.50
William Hil
2.50
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ilves over/under 0.5
Over
90.6%
@ 1.08+4.9%
Under
9.4%
@ 6.48-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.11
Betfair
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Under
1xBet
6.95
Betfair
6.50
Betano
6.00
Ilves over/under 1.5
Over
68.3%
@ 1.48+5.1%
Under
31.7%
@ 2.54-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.51
Marathonbet
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Betfair
1.44
Under
Betfair
2.63
Unibet
2.60
Pinnacle
2.57
1xBet
2.49
Marathonbet
2.49
Ilves over/under 2.5
Over
42.1%
@ 2.53+5.2%
Under
57.9%
@ 1.48-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.63
Pinnacle
2.61
1xBet
2.55
Marathonbet
2.55
Betano
2.50
Under
Betano
1.50
Unibet
1.50
1xBet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.47
Ilves over/under 3.5
Over
21.4%
@ 4.79+2.1%
Under
78.6%
@ 1.14-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
1xBet
4.95
Betano
4.70
Unibet
4.35
Under
Betano
1.17
Betfair
1.14
Unibet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
FF Jaro over/under 0.5
Over
51.3%
@ 1.49-11.1%
Under
48.7%
@ 2.47+11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.54
Betano
1.52
Betfair
1.50
Marathonbet
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Under
Unibet
2.65
Betfair
2.50
Pinnacle
2.48
Betano
2.42
Marathonbet
2.38
FF Jaro over/under 1.5
Over
16.3%
@ 3.36-11.4%
Under
83.7%
@ 1.29+11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.66
Marathonbet
3.56
1xBet
3.56
Betano
3.30
Betfair
3.25
Under
Unibet
1.33
Betano
1.30
Betfair
1.29
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
FF Jaro over/under 2.5
Over
3.7%
@ 9.22-6.4%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.03+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.90
1xBet
9.90
Betfair
9.50
Betano
7.60
Under
Betano
1.07
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
FF Jaro over/under 3.5
Over
0.6%
@ 12.50-6.8%
Under
99.4%
@ 1.01+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ilves, so a minus line means Ilves give that many goals of a start and FF Jaro receive them. At -1, Ilves must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ilves win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ilves)
Ilves -2
29.2%
@ 4.04+7.3%
Draw -2
21.8%
@ 4.42+1.7%
FF Jaro +2
49.0%
@ 1.53-8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
3.98
Unibet
3.95
Draw
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.50
Unibet
4.25
Away
Marathonbet
1.54
Betfair
1.53
Unibet
1.53
Handicap -1 (Ilves)
Ilves -1
51.0%
@ 2.24+11.5%
Draw -1
22.3%
@ 3.59-2.4%
FF Jaro +1
26.7%
@ 2.47-9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
2.25
Unibet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.23
Draw
Betfair
3.60
Unibet
3.60
Marathonbet
3.56
Away
Marathonbet
2.53
Betfair
2.50
Unibet
2.38
Handicap +1 (Ilves)
Ilves +1
91.2%
@ 1.12+16.0%
Draw +1
6.2%
@ 5.65-8.7%
FF Jaro -1
2.5%
@ 8.60-7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
Draw
Unibet
6.50
Marathonbet
4.80
Away
Unibet
10.00
Marathonbet
7.20
Handicap +2 (Ilves)
Ilves +2
97.5%
Draw +2
2.0%
FF Jaro -2
0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ilves
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.97
1.07
0.53
0.67
1.40
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.88
1.04
1.08
0.62
0.69
1.46
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (FF Jaro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FF Jaro
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.80
0.86
0.57
0.62
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.00
1.50
0.50
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (24)
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.58
0.75
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.6%
@ 1.27+2.7%
Under 0.5
24.4%
@ 3.41-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
William Hil
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Under
Betfair
3.50
William Hil
3.50
1xBet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.40
Betano
3.25
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.8%
@ 2.28-3.0%
Under 1.5
62.2%
@ 1.57+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.37
Pinnacle
2.37
1xBet
2.32
Marathonbet
2.32
Betfair
2.25
Under
Unibet
1.66
William Hil
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Betano
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.5%
@ 5.06-4.7%
Under 2.5
86.5%
@ 1.13+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.15
1xBet
5.15
William Hil
5.00
Betano
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
William Hil
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ilves over/under 0.5 HT
Over
61.6%
@ 1.52+0.2%
Under
38.4%
@ 2.42-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.52
Unibet
1.46
Under
Pinnacle
2.49
Unibet
2.48
1xBet
2.40
Betano
2.30
Ilves over/under 1.5 HT
Over
22.8%
@ 3.58-3.2%
Under
77.2%
@ 1.25+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.64
Betano
3.60
1xBet
3.50
Under
1xBet
1.27
Betano
1.26
Marathonbet
1.23
Ilves over/under 2.5 HT
Over
5.4%
@ 9.12-4.8%
Under
94.6%
@ 1.04+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.03
FF Jaro over/under 0.5 HT
Over
31.9%
@ 2.57-4.3%
Under
68.1%
@ 1.46+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.83
Marathonbet
2.61
Betano
2.57
1xBet
2.55
Unibet
2.30
Under
Unibet
1.52
1xBet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.41
FF Jaro over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.6%
@ 9.55-3.1%
Under
93.4%
@ 1.03+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.75
1xBet
9.90
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
FF Jaro over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ilves
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.63
0.73
0.60
0.80
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.81
0.65
0.77
0.62
0.85
0.69
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (FF Jaro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FF Jaro
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.13
0.50
1.00
0.38
1.25
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.83
0.00
2.50
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (24)
0.38
0.96
0.58
0.75
0.17
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
81.8%
@ 1.15+1.4%
Under 0.5
18.2%
@ 4.74-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.18
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
Under
Betano
4.85
Marathonbet
4.80
1xBet
4.80
William Hil
4.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
51.6%
@ 1.78-0.9%
Under 1.5
48.4%
@ 1.97+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.85
Marathonbet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Betano
1.78
Unibet
1.65
Under
Unibet
2.06
Betano
2.02
1xBet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
William Hil
1.85
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
24.0%
@ 3.40-3.2%
Under 2.5
76.0%
@ 1.27+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.60
1xBet
3.34
Marathonbet
3.34
Betano
3.30
Under
Betano
1.32
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ilves over/under 0.5 2H
Over
69.2%
@ 1.36+0.4%
Under
30.8%
@ 3.00-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.37
Betano
1.36
Under
1xBet
3.00
Betano
3.00
Ilves over/under 1.5 2H
Over
31.8%
@ 2.64-3.6%
Under
68.2%
@ 1.44+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.70
Marathonbet
2.64
Betano
2.57
Under
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.41
Ilves over/under 2.5 2H
Over
12.9%
@ 6.25-2.1%
Under
87.1%
@ 1.10+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.80
Betano
5.70
Under
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.09
FF Jaro over/under 0.5 2H
Over
39.1%
@ 2.14-4.4%
Under
60.9%
@ 1.64+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.16
1xBet
2.14
Betano
2.12
Under
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.60
FF Jaro over/under 1.5 2H
Over
8.5%
@ 7.03-4.8%
Under
91.5%
@ 1.07+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.60
1xBet
7.30
Betano
6.20
Under
Betano
1.10
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
FF Jaro over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.3%
@ 12.00-6.6%
Under
98.7%
@ 1.02+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.8%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.7%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.6%
Under 7.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
96.3%
1.03
Betano
1.07
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
-
+6.4%
Under 6.5
96.2%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+5.4%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
94.6%
1.04
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-
+4.8%
Under 5.5 cards
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.4%
1.03
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
-
-
+3.1%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
91.5%
1.07
Betano
1.10
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
-
-
+4.8%
Home or Draw
91.2%
1.11
Betano
1.16
William Hil
1.12
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
+7.7%
Home +1 handicap
91.2%
1.12
Unibet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
-
-
-
+16.0%
Under 5.5
90.8%
1.05
Betano
1.09
Unibet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
+3.5%
Home over 0.5 goals
90.6%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Betfair
1.08
1xBet
1.06
-
-
+4.9%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
87.1%
1.10
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.09
-
-
-
+2.1%
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.5%
1.13
Betano
1.15
William Hil
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
+4.7%
Under 23.5 fouls
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
83.7%
1.29
Unibet
1.33
Betano
1.30
Betfair
1.29
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
+11.4%
Over 1.5
82.1%
1.15
Betano
1.19
Pinnacle
1.19
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Unibet
1.11
+1.6%
Home or Away
82.0%
1.18
Betano
1.20
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Unibet
1.17
+2.9%
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.8%
1.15
William Hil
1.18
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
-
+1.4%
Under 4.5
80.1%
1.20
Unibet
1.23
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
+2.9%
Home under 3.5 goals
78.6%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Betfair
1.14
Unibet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
-2.1%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
77.2%
1.25
1xBet
1.27
Betano
1.26
Marathonbet
1.23
-
-
+3.2%
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.0%
1.27
Betano
1.32
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
-
+3.2%
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.6%
1.27
Betano
1.31
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
William Hil
1.25
Betfair
1.25
+2.7%
Under 21.5 fouls
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
73.3%
1.48
Unibet
1.52
Dafabet
1.52
Betano
1.52
Pinnacle
1.50
1xBet
1.49
+11.0%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Ilves
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
T. Hytönen43%
J. Kanga43%
R. Riski33%
J. Veteli25%
Maksim Stjopin20%
Otto Tiitinen17%
Oliver Pettersson12%
T. Miettunen0%
A. Popovitch0%
M. Rale0%
F. Krkalić0%
K. Wallius0%
J. Kilo0%
Stanislav Baranov0%
Y. Raap0%
Oskari Multala0%
V. Kumpu0%
Abdoul Goudouss Bamba0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
K. Wallius33%
Y. Raap29%
T. Miettunen25%
Maksim Stjopin20%
R. Riski17%
J. Kanga14%
A. Popovitch12%
J. Veteli0%
M. Rale0%
F. Krkalić0%
T. Hytönen0%
Oliver Pettersson0%
J. Kilo0%
Stanislav Baranov0%
Oskari Multala0%
Otto Tiitinen0%
V. Kumpu0%
Abdoul Goudouss Bamba0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
J. Kilo50%
J. Kanga29%
R. Riski0%
T. Miettunen0%
A. Popovitch0%
J. Veteli0%
M. Rale0%
F. Krkalić0%
Maksim Stjopin0%
K. Wallius0%
T. Hytönen0%
Oliver Pettersson0%
Stanislav Baranov0%
Y. Raap0%
Oskari Multala0%
Otto Tiitinen0%
V. Kumpu0%
Abdoul Goudouss Bamba0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
T. Hytönen29%
Maksim Stjopin20%
J. Kanga14%
J. Kilo12%
R. Riski0%
T. Miettunen0%
A. Popovitch0%
J. Veteli0%
M. Rale0%
F. Krkalić0%
K. Wallius0%
Oliver Pettersson0%
Stanislav Baranov0%
Y. Raap0%
Oskari Multala0%
Otto Tiitinen0%
V. Kumpu0%
Abdoul Goudouss Bamba0%
FF Jaro
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
H. Sjögrell38%
R. Vikström25%
Kaius Hardén17%
Fabian Östigard Ness17%
A. Vidjeskog0%
Johan Brunell0%
J. Myrevik0%
M. Ogungbaro0%
Senne Vits0%
Erik Gunnarsson0%
Aron Bjonbäck0%
J. Skau0%
Mats Pedersen0%
Oliver Kass Kawo0%
V. Vuorinen0%
Linus Zetterstrom0%
Joas Vikström0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
A. Vidjeskog50%
M. Ogungbaro29%
J. Skau25%
R. Vikström25%
Oliver Kass Kawo17%
V. Vuorinen12%
Johan Brunell0%
J. Myrevik0%
Senne Vits0%
Erik Gunnarsson0%
Aron Bjonbäck0%
H. Sjögrell0%
Mats Pedersen0%
Kaius Hardén0%
Fabian Östigard Ness0%
Linus Zetterstrom0%
Joas Vikström0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mats Pedersen25%
Oliver Kass Kawo17%
H. Sjögrell12%
V. Vuorinen12%
A. Vidjeskog0%
Johan Brunell0%
J. Myrevik0%
M. Ogungbaro0%
Senne Vits0%
Erik Gunnarsson0%
Aron Bjonbäck0%
J. Skau0%
Kaius Hardén0%
R. Vikström0%
Fabian Östigard Ness0%
Linus Zetterstrom0%
Joas Vikström0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
H. Sjögrell38%
Kaius Hardén17%
R. Vikström12%
A. Vidjeskog0%
Johan Brunell0%
J. Myrevik0%
M. Ogungbaro0%
Senne Vits0%
Erik Gunnarsson0%
Aron Bjonbäck0%
J. Skau0%
Mats Pedersen0%
Oliver Kass Kawo0%
V. Vuorinen0%
Fabian Östigard Ness0%
Linus Zetterstrom0%
Joas Vikström0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (30)
€7m
HH (28)
€7m
IT (25)
€5m
ILV (23)
€4m
SJK (26)
€4m
AO (23)
€4m
VPS (22)
€3m
GNI (21)
€3m
LAH (22)
€3m
MAR (23)
€2m
TP (22)
€2m
FJ (20)
€2m
Ilves's squad is €2m more valuable than FF Jaro's (€4m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (10)
€2m
KUP (9)
€2m
IT (9)
€2m
SJK (8)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
ILV (7)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
GNI (6)
€1m
LAH (9)
€1m
TP (8)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
Ilves and FF Jaro have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (9)
€3m
HH (6)
€1m
ILV (5)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
SJK (9)
€1m
FJ (6)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
MAR (4)
€1m
GNI (5)
€1m
LAH (3)
€1m
TP (4)
€0m
Ilves and FF Jaro have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (12)
€3m
KUP (12)
€3m
IT (11)
€2m
ILV (11)
€2m
SJK (9)
€2m
VPS (12)
€1m
AO (11)
€1m
GNI (10)
€1m
LAH (10)
€1m
TP (10)
€1m
MAR (10)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
Ilves's defence is €1m more valuable than FF Jaro's (€2m vs €1m).
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Veikkausliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
KuPS
Inter Turku
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
AC Oulu
VPS
Lahti
Turku PS
SJK
Mariehamn