Ilves, fresh from a 0-1 loss to VPS, will host HJK Helsinki, who just fell 2-3 to Gnistan. The model sees a 39 % chance of a home win, 27 % for a draw and 34 % for an away victory, so the home side is the favourite. The expected total is 2.9 goals, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 24 %. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.7 % probability. Ilves averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.15 conceded at home against similar opposition, while HJK scores 1.8 and concedes 1.1 on the road. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99 %) with a 2 % edge, Away under 2.5 HT goals (98 %) with a 7 % edge, Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.3 %) with a 5 % edge, Under 6.5 (97.2 %) with a 4 % edge, Away under 2.5 2H goals (96 %) with an 8 % edge, Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.4 %) with a 6 % edge, Away under 3.5 goals (94.8 %) with an 8 % edge, and Under 25.5 fouls (93.3 %).
Results analysis
The upset was clear: Ilves, the pre-match favourite, fell short as HJK Helsinki claimed a 1-2 victory. The model had tipped a home win with a 38% probability, but the outcome proved wrong. The match finished 1-2, an away win that extended HJK’s winning streak and snapped Ilves’ three-game losing run. The model’s selections all hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.4%, Under 6.5 at 97.2%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.7%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.5%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 96.1%, Away under 3.5 goals at 94.4%, and Home under 3.5 goals at 93.8%. Each probability was expressed as a percentage and no other figures were repeated.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ilves win✗ Miss
37.5%
Avg Implied 25.1% · @ 3.70
Edge
+12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.93
BetVictor
3.80
Marathonbet
3.78
1xBet
3.76
Dafabet
3.75
Draw✗ Miss
27.1%
Avg Implied 23.8% · @ 3.90
Edge
+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.20
Dafabet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.96
1xBet
3.96
HJK Helsinki win✓ Hit
35.4%
Avg Implied 51.1% · @ 1.81
Edge
-15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.86
Superbet
1.85
Betano
1.85
Pinnacle
1.84
10Bet
1.82
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ilves
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.57
1.93
1.07
1.47
2.07
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
1.77
1.65
2.00
1.15
1.54
2.15
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HJK Helsinki
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
1.20
2.13
1.27
2.13
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.69
1.46
1.29
1.86
2.17
1.00
vs Weaker (17)
2.47
1.00
2.88
0.75
2.11
1.22
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.6%
@ 1.14-2.0%
Under 1.5
20.4%
@ 5.05+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
Pinnacle
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Under
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Pinnacle
5.44
Unibet
5.20
BetVictor
5.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.2%
@ 1.51-6.3%
Under 2.5
44.8%
@ 2.42+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.55
Pinnacle
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.52
BetVictor
1.51
Under
Pinnacle
2.57
Unibet
2.45
10Bet
2.45
Betano
2.42
Bet365
2.40
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.9%
@ 2.28-8.2%
Under 3.5
67.1%
@ 1.59+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.38
Pinnacle
2.37
Betano
2.32
Marathonbet
2.29
1xBet
2.29
Under
Pinnacle
1.63
1xBet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.60
10Bet
1.60
Betano
1.60
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.6%
@ 1.49-2.5%
No
40.4%
@ 2.44+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.51
William Hil
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Betano
1.50
No
Betfair
2.50
Unibet
2.50
1xBet
2.47
10Bet
2.45
BetVictor
2.45
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%@ 7.20+6.6%
2-1
8.5%@ 11.28+4.6%
1-2 ✓
8.2%@ 7.62+2.4%
1-0
7.0%@ 13.64+3.7%
0-1
6.7%@ 9.36+2.0%
0-0
6.7%@ 14.66+3.7%
2-2
6.1%@ 10.93+2.0%
2-0
6.0%@ 21.00+3.9%
Ilves goals ↓
HJK Helsinki goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.7%
6.7%
5.6%
2.7%
0.9%
1
7.0%
13%
8.2%
3.9%
1.4%
2
6.0%
8.5%
6.1%
2.9%
1.0%
3
2.9%
4.2%
3.0%
1.4%
0.5%
4
1.1%
1.5%
1.1%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ilves goals (down), columns = HJK Helsinki goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
KuPS
1.95
Inter Turku
1.91
HJK Helsinki
1.68
Gnistan
1.64
AC Oulu
1.55
VPS
1.50
Lahti
1.45
Turku PS
1.41
Ilves
1.14
SJK
0.86
FF Jaro
0.68
Mariehamn
0.64
Ilves is 0.55 points worse than HJK Helsinki in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 1.68).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KuPS
1.73
HJK Helsinki
1.64
Gnistan
1.64
Ilves
1.55
VPS
1.32
Inter Turku
1.32
Turku PS
1.27
Lahti
1.18
SJK
1.14
AC Oulu
1.14
FF Jaro
0.82
Mariehamn
0.77
Ilves is 0.09 goals worse than HJK Helsinki in terms of goals scored per game (1.55 vs 1.64).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Inter Turku
0.73
Lahti
0.86
VPS
1.00
KuPS
1.05
Turku PS
1.05
AC Oulu
1.14
HJK Helsinki
1.23
Gnistan
1.32
SJK
1.50
Ilves
1.68
Mariehamn
1.95
FF Jaro
2.00
Ilves is 0.45 goals worse than HJK Helsinki in terms of goals conceded per game (1.68 vs 1.23).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Inter Turku
58%
KuPS
57%
Lahti
56%
HJK Helsinki
55%
SJK
50%
Turku PS
50%
Ilves
49%
VPS
48%
AC Oulu
48%
FF Jaro
47%
Mariehamn
45%
Gnistan
44%
Ilves is 5.8 percentage points worse than HJK Helsinki in terms of average possession (49% vs 55%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ilves
For 3.7 · Against 4.6 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.1 · Against 9.9 · Total 19.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
HJK Helsinki
For 5.0 · Against 3.3 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.6 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.9 · Against 9.5 · Total 18.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ilves
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.5
10.3
1.7
1.6
1.8
19.1
18.9
19.2
vs Stronger (6)
10.0
10.0
10.0
2.5
1.7
3.3
19.5
17.5
21.5
vs Similar (41)
10.6
10.6
10.6
1.6
1.8
1.5
18.9
19.2
18.7
vs Weaker (3)
9.0
-
9.0
1.3
0.0
4.0
20.0
-
20.0
% over line
52%
36%
67%
26%
20%
32%
43%
45%
42%
% under line
48%
64%
33%
74%
80%
68%
57%
55%
58%
This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HJK Helsinki
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
8.2
11.3
1.2
1.2
1.1
16.6
16.5
16.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
7.8
6.4
10.2
1.0
1.4
0.6
14.8
15.1
14.2
vs Weaker (27)
11.4
10.6
12.2
1.3
1.1
1.5
18.6
18.4
18.8
% over line
57%
42%
78%
12%
11%
13%
19%
25%
11%
% under line
43%
58%
22%
88%
89%
87%
81%
75%
89%
This opponent (Ilves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Gnistan
11.5
Inter Turku
10.6
Mariehamn
10.3
SJK
10.1
Ilves
10.1
AC Oulu
10.1
FF Jaro
10.1
HJK Helsinki
9.9
VPS
9.8
KuPS
9.8
Lahti
9.8
Turku PS
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lahti
4.5
Turku PS
4.3
Gnistan
4.0
AC Oulu
3.9
SJK
3.9
Mariehamn
3.9
Ilves
3.8
Inter Turku
3.8
VPS
3.6
FF Jaro
3.3
KuPS
3.2
HJK Helsinki
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SJK
23.8
Ilves
23.2
Inter Turku
23.2
Lahti
23.1
AC Oulu
22.7
Gnistan
22.5
VPS
22.4
KuPS
22.0
Mariehamn
21.9
Turku PS
21.8
HJK Helsinki
20.5
FF Jaro
18.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
45.8%
@ 1.50-15.6%
Under 9.5
54.2%
@ 2.38+15.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.52
Betano
1.50
Unibet
1.50
1xBet
1.47
Under
Betano
2.47
Marathonbet
2.44
Pinnacle
2.42
Unibet
2.33
1xBet
2.32
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
31.5%
Under 3.5
68.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
26.0%
Under 21.5
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ilves or Draw✗ Miss
64.6%
Avg Implied 48.4% · @ 1.92
Edge
+16.2%
38%
27%
35%
covers Ilves + Draw
Best 5 market prices
SBO
2.01
Betano
1.98
Bet365
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
1xBet
1.94
Ilves or HJK Helsinki✓ Hit
72.9%
Avg Implied 76.7% · @ 1.21
Edge
-3.8%
38%
27%
35%
covers Ilves + HJK Helsinki
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.23
1xBet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Draw or HJK Helsinki✓ Hit
62.5%
Avg Implied 74.9% · @ 1.24
Edge
-12.4%
38%
27%
35%
covers Draw + HJK Helsinki
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
BetVictor
1.25
Superbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ilves over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
77.0%
@ 1.29+5.3%
Under
23.0%
@ 3.27-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
Superbet
1.31
BetVictor
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.50
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.30
Unibet
3.25
1xBet
3.24
Ilves over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
43.2%
@ 2.47+5.5%
Under
56.8%
@ 1.50-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.59
Betfair
2.50
Bet365
2.50
BetVictor
2.50
Marathonbet
2.49
Under
Pinnacle
1.53
Betano
1.52
Betfair
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.50
Ilves over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
18.4%
@ 5.69+2.1%
Under
81.6%
@ 1.10-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.90
1xBet
5.90
BetVictor
5.75
Under
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Ilves over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.2%
@ 12.16-1.6%
Under
93.8%
@ 1.02+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.00
Betfair
10.00
Marathonbet
9.80
Under
Betano
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
HJK Helsinki over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
75.9%
@ 1.11-7.7%
Under
24.1%
@ 5.64+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Under
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
1xBet
5.90
BetVictor
5.75
10Bet
5.50
HJK Helsinki over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
41.6%
@ 1.62-15.8%
Under
58.4%
@ 2.19+15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.67
Betano
1.65
Superbet
1.64
Bet365
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Under
Pinnacle
2.27
1xBet
2.22
Marathonbet
2.22
Betfair
2.20
BetVictor
2.20
HJK Helsinki over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
17.2%
@ 2.96-14.3%
Under
82.8%
@ 1.36+14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.10
Bet365
3.00
Betfair
3.00
1xBet
2.95
Betano
2.95
Under
Pinnacle
1.37
1xBet
1.37
Betano
1.37
Marathonbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
HJK Helsinki over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.6%
@ 6.08-9.7%
Under
94.4%
@ 1.10+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
1xBet
6.15
Marathonbet
6.15
Betfair
6.00
Superbet
6.00
Under
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ilves, so a minus line means Ilves give that many goals of a start and HJK Helsinki receive them. At -1, Ilves must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ilves win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ilves)Actual: HJK Helsinki
Ilves -2
7.0%
@ 15.83+1.3%
Draw -2
11.4%
@ 9.60+2.0%
HJK Helsinki +2
81.5%
@ 1.07-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
16.00
Unibet
12.50
Draw
Bet365
11.00
Superbet
9.30
Unibet
8.50
Away
Unibet
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Handicap -1 (Ilves)Actual: HJK Helsinki
Ilves -1
18.5%
@ 7.25+6.0%
Draw -1
19.1%
@ 5.47+2.6%
HJK Helsinki +1
62.5%
@ 1.27-8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.50
Unibet
7.00
10Bet
6.50
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.65
Unibet
5.25
10Bet
5.00
Away
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Handicap +1 (Ilves)Actual: Draw
Ilves +1
64.6%
@ 1.92+18.2%
Draw +1
18.4%
@ 3.78-5.2%
HJK Helsinki -1
17.0%
@ 2.97-13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
Superbet
1.92
Betfair
1.91
10Bet
1.91
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.80
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
Away
10Bet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Superbet
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Marathonbet
2.92
Handicap +2 (Ilves)Actual: Ilves
Ilves +2
83.0%
@ 1.33+15.8%
Draw +2
10.7%
@ 5.15-6.6%
HJK Helsinki -2
6.3%
@ 5.78-9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Unibet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.30
Superbet
5.10
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
5.00
Away
10Bet
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.60
Marathonbet
5.60
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ilves
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.00
1.13
0.60
0.67
1.40
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.92
1.08
1.15
0.69
0.69
1.46
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HJK Helsinki
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.43
1.13
0.40
1.07
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.85
0.62
0.57
0.71
1.17
0.50
vs Weaker (17)
1.29
0.29
1.62
0.12
1.00
0.44
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
71.1%
@ 1.25-3.1%
Under 0.5
28.9%
@ 3.60+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Under
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
William Hil
3.70
1xBet
3.58
Marathonbet
3.58
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
36.9%
@ 2.22-5.1%
Under 1.5
63.1%
@ 1.60+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.32
Pinnacle
2.32
William Hil
2.25
Betfair
2.25
1xBet
2.23
Under
Bet365
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.61
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.9%
@ 4.87-6.1%
Under 2.5
87.1%
@ 1.15+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.90
1xBet
4.90
Betano
4.80
Under
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
Betfair
1.14
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ilves over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
49.3%
@ 2.11+5.3%
Under
50.7%
@ 1.66-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.18
Betano
2.15
Superbet
2.12
10Bet
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.70
Unibet
1.67
1xBet
1.66
Superbet
1.65
Betano
1.65
Ilves over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
15.1%
@ 6.80+1.5%
Under
84.9%
@ 1.07-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.20
10Bet
7.00
1xBet
6.80
Superbet
6.60
Betano
6.40
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
Ilves over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.3%
@ 20.50-1.4%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.01+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
HJK Helsinki over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
46.9%
@ 1.62-10.2%
Under
53.1%
@ 2.16+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.68
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.63
Superbet
1.62
10Bet
1.60
Under
Pinnacle
2.21
10Bet
2.20
1xBet
2.20
Unibet
2.17
Superbet
2.15
HJK Helsinki over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.9%
@ 3.98-12.4%
Under
89.1%
@ 1.21+12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.15
Betano
4.10
Superbet
4.00
10Bet
3.85
1xBet
3.80
Under
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.18
HJK Helsinki over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 10.50-7.3%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.03+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
10.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ilves
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.57
0.80
0.47
0.80
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.85
0.58
0.85
0.46
0.85
0.69
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HJK Helsinki
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.77
1.00
0.87
1.07
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.85
0.85
0.71
1.14
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (17)
1.18
0.71
1.25
0.62
1.11
0.78
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.5%
@ 1.14-4.1%
Under 0.5
22.5%
@ 5.04+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Under
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.10
Marathonbet
5.10
10Bet
5.00
Betano
5.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
44.3%
@ 1.72-9.6%
Under 1.5
55.7%
@ 2.02+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
1xBet
1.74
Superbet
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Under
Betano
2.07
10Bet
2.05
Unibet
2.04
1xBet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.02
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
18.9%
@ 3.24-9.7%
Under 2.5
81.1%
@ 1.30+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
William Hil
3.30
Superbet
3.25
1xBet
3.18
Marathonbet
3.18
Under
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.29
William Hil
1.29
1xBet
1.28
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ilves over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
57.7%
@ 1.78+5.6%
Under
42.3%
@ 1.93-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.79
Betano
1.78
10Bet
1.73
Under
10Bet
2.00
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.90
Superbet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.89
Ilves over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
17.8%
@ 4.88-1.2%
Under
82.2%
@ 1.14+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.15
1xBet
5.00
Superbet
4.90
10Bet
4.75
Betano
4.60
Under
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Ilves over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.9%
@ 12.75-3.5%
Under
96.1%
@ 1.02+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
HJK Helsinki over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
51.4%
@ 1.42-13.8%
Under
48.6%
@ 2.66+13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.40
Under
Betano
2.70
1xBet
2.70
10Bet
2.65
Superbet
2.60
HJK Helsinki over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
16.5%
@ 2.96-14.7%
Under
83.5%
@ 1.35+14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.05
10Bet
3.00
Marathonbet
2.98
Betano
2.92
1xBet
2.85
Under
Betano
1.38
1xBet
1.36
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
HJK Helsinki over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.5%
@ 7.28-9.3%
Under
96.5%
@ 1.06+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
7.60
10Bet
7.50
1xBet
7.40
Betano
6.60
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.0%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+7.3%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.5%
1.06
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
-
+9.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
94.4%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
+9.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
93.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.6%
1.07
Pinnacle
1.11
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Superbet
1.07
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.1%
1.21
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.18
+12.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.1%
1.15
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
Betfair
1.14
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
84.9%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
-1.5%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.5%
1.35
Betano
1.38
1xBet
1.36
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
+14.7%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
83.3%
1.22
Pinnacle
1.26
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Superbet
1.22
+7.1%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
83.0%
1.33
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Unibet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
+15.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
82.8%
1.36
Pinnacle
1.37
1xBet
1.37
Betano
1.37
Marathonbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
+14.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
82.2%
1.14
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
81.6%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
Superbet
1.11
-2.1%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
81.5%
1.07
Unibet
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
-
-
-3.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.1%
1.30
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.29
William Hil
1.29
1xBet
1.28
+9.7%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
79.6%
1.14
Betano
1.18
Pinnacle
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
-2.0%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.5%
1.14
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.13
-4.1%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
77.0%
1.29
Betano
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
Superbet
1.31
BetVictor
1.30
Betfair
1.30
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
76.8%
1.61
Bet365
1.80
10Bet
1.77
Superbet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.57
Unibet
1.55
+19.3%
-
Away over 0.5 goals
75.9%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
10Bet
1.11
-7.7%
✓ Hit
Under 21.5 fouls
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.9%
1.21
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.23
1xBet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-3.8%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.1%
1.25
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
10Bet
1.25
-3.1%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Ilves
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
T. Hytönen43%
J. Kanga43%
R. Riski33%
J. Veteli25%
Maksim Stjopin20%
Otto Tiitinen17%
Oliver Pettersson12%
T. Miettunen0%
A. Popovitch0%
M. Rale0%
F. Krkalić0%
K. Wallius0%
J. Kilo0%
Stanislav Baranov0%
Y. Raap0%
Oskari Multala0%
V. Kumpu0%
Abdoul Goudouss Bamba0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
K. Wallius33%
Y. Raap29%
T. Miettunen25%
Maksim Stjopin20%
R. Riski17%
J. Kanga14%
A. Popovitch12%
J. Veteli0%
M. Rale0%
F. Krkalić0%
T. Hytönen0%
Oliver Pettersson0%
J. Kilo0%
Stanislav Baranov0%
Oskari Multala0%
Otto Tiitinen0%
V. Kumpu0%
Abdoul Goudouss Bamba0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
J. Kilo50%
J. Kanga29%
R. Riski0%
T. Miettunen0%
A. Popovitch0%
J. Veteli0%
M. Rale0%
F. Krkalić0%
Maksim Stjopin0%
K. Wallius0%
T. Hytönen0%
Oliver Pettersson0%
Stanislav Baranov0%
Y. Raap0%
Oskari Multala0%
Otto Tiitinen0%
V. Kumpu0%
Abdoul Goudouss Bamba0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
T. Hytönen29%
Maksim Stjopin20%
J. Kanga14%
J. Kilo12%
R. Riski0%
T. Miettunen0%
A. Popovitch0%
J. Veteli0%
M. Rale0%
F. Krkalić0%
K. Wallius0%
Oliver Pettersson0%
Stanislav Baranov0%
Y. Raap0%
Oskari Multala0%
Otto Tiitinen0%
V. Kumpu0%
Abdoul Goudouss Bamba0%
HJK Helsinki
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
T. Pukki33%
David Ezeh33%
M. Borchers29%
A. Ring20%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster20%
Mihailo Bogićević20%
Toivo Mero20%
V. Tikkanen17%
M. Ylitolva14%
Till Cissokho0%
L. Lappalainen0%
Lucas Lingman0%
J. Kallinen0%
L. Montano0%
Pyry Mentu0%
Alfie Cicale0%
Liam Möller0%
Matej Marković0%
Martin Kirilov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Martin Kirilov40%
Mihailo Bogićević20%
Toivo Mero20%
V. Tikkanen17%
Till Cissokho0%
T. Pukki0%
A. Ring0%
L. Lappalainen0%
Lucas Lingman0%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster0%
M. Borchers0%
J. Kallinen0%
L. Montano0%
M. Ylitolva0%
David Ezeh0%
Pyry Mentu0%
Alfie Cicale0%
Liam Möller0%
Matej Marković0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
David Ezeh67%
T. Pukki33%
Pyry Mentu33%
Lucas Lingman29%
Liam Möller25%
Martin Kirilov20%
Till Cissokho0%
A. Ring0%
V. Tikkanen0%
L. Lappalainen0%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster0%
M. Borchers0%
J. Kallinen0%
L. Montano0%
M. Ylitolva0%
Mihailo Bogićević0%
Toivo Mero0%
Alfie Cicale0%
Matej Marković0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
T. Pukki33%
M. Borchers14%
Till Cissokho0%
A. Ring0%
V. Tikkanen0%
L. Lappalainen0%
Lucas Lingman0%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster0%
J. Kallinen0%
L. Montano0%
M. Ylitolva0%
Mihailo Bogićević0%
David Ezeh0%
Pyry Mentu0%
Toivo Mero0%
Alfie Cicale0%
Liam Möller0%
Matej Marković0%
Martin Kirilov0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (30)
€7m
HH (28)
€7m
IT (25)
€5m
ILV (23)
€4m
SJK (26)
€4m
AO (23)
€4m
VPS (22)
€3m
GNI (21)
€3m
LAH (22)
€3m
MAR (23)
€2m
TP (22)
€2m
FJ (20)
€2m
Ilves's squad is €3m less valuable than HJK Helsinki's (€4m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (10)
€2m
KUP (9)
€2m
IT (9)
€2m
SJK (8)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
ILV (7)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
GNI (6)
€1m
LAH (9)
€1m
TP (8)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
Ilves's attack is €1m less valuable than HJK Helsinki's (€1m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (9)
€3m
HH (6)
€1m
ILV (5)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
SJK (9)
€1m
FJ (6)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
MAR (4)
€1m
GNI (5)
€1m
LAH (3)
€1m
TP (4)
€0m
Ilves and HJK Helsinki have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (12)
€3m
KUP (12)
€3m
IT (11)
€2m
ILV (11)
€2m
SJK (9)
€2m
VPS (12)
€1m
AO (11)
€1m
GNI (10)
€1m
LAH (10)
€1m
TP (10)
€1m
MAR (10)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
Ilves's defence is €1m less valuable than HJK Helsinki's (€2m vs €3m).
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Veikkausliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
KuPS
Inter Turku
Gnistan
AC Oulu
VPS
Lahti
Turku PS
SJK
FF Jaro
Mariehamn