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Ilves vs Lahti Result & Analysis

Date: 10/06/2026
Time: 15:00
Final 5-2
Ilves
Ilves
Vs
24%
22%
54%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Lahti
Lahti
Finland: Suomen Cup
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Squad value14 Games History15 Overall Statistics16 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Ilves face Lahti in a match the model predicts will be high-scoring, with an expected 3.8 goals and a most likely total of three, a 21 % chance. The most probable scoreline is 1-2, with a 8.9 % probability, and the model favours an away win. Ilves, playing at home against a similarly-rated opponent, averages 1.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded, while Lahti on the road averages 1.89 goals scored and only 0.67 conceded. Home win probability sits at 24 %, draw at 22 %, and away win at 54 %. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (96.1 %), Home under 3.5 goals (93.3 %), Under 6.5 (91.0 %), Over 1.5 (89.9 %), Away over 0.5 goals (89.7 %), Away +2 handicap (88.7 %), Over 19.5 fouls (84.8 %) and Over 2.5 cards (84.1 %). Ilves’ recent form shows two straight defeats, while Lahti comes off a win, setting the stage for a contest where the away side’s defensive strength and attacking edge give them the edge.

Results analysis

The upset was clear: Ilves snatched a 5-2 victory, overturning the pre-match favourite Lahti, who the model had tipped to win with a 54 % chance. The home side’s recent form, after two straight defeats, had been a warning, yet they broke through. The model’s call was wrong. The model’s selections delivered mixed results. Under 7.5 goals hit at 96.1 %; Home under 3.5 goals missed at 93.3 %; Under 6.5 missed at 91.0 %; Over 1.5 hit at 89.9 %; Away over 0.5 goals hit at 89.7 %; and Away +2 handicap missed at 88.7 %. The final score of 5-2 confirms the home win, a stark contrast to the predicted 3-goal total.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ilves win✓ Hit
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lahti win✗ Miss
54.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

IlvesIlves

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-522D23L11D10W40W22D13L20W10W05LA·MAR18/04A·VPS24/04A·SJK02/05H·AC 08/05A·P-I13/05A·HJK16/05H·INT20/05H·GNI23/05H·TUR27/05A·LAH30/05
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.801.831.861.501.752.12
vs Stronger (6)2.332.332.002.332.672.33
vs Similar (22)1.641.731.801.301.502.08
vs Weaker (2)2.001.502.001.002.002.00
Clean sheet %23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Lahti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LahtiLahti

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L21W42W01L11D31W11D12L10W50WH·INT18/04H·AC 25/04A·UNI28/04A·HJK04/05H·MAR10/05H·MP13/05H·VPS18/05A·KUP23/05A·MAR26/05H·ILV30/05
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.001.172.131.131.871.20
vs Stronger (7)1.572.001.002.001.802.00
vs Similar (20)2.100.802.270.911.890.67
vs Weaker (3)2.331.672.501.502.002.00
Clean sheet %23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%15%21%3%07%117%221%319%415%518%6+
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
89.9%
Under 1.5
10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
72.9%
Under 2.5
27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
52.4%
Under 3.5
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
70.7%
No
29.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
8.9%
1-1
8.6%
1-3
6.7%
2-2
6.7%
2-1
5.9%
0-2
5.9%
2-3
5.1%
0-3
4.5%
Ilves goals ↓
Lahti goals →
01234
03.0%4.4%5.9%4.5%2.5%
12.6%8.6%8.9%6.7%3.8%
22.6%5.9%6.7%5.1%2.9%
31.3%3.0%3.4%2.6%1.5%
40.5%1.1%1.3%1.0%0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ilves goals (down), columns = Lahti goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
HJK Helsinki
3.00
Loiske
3.00
Haka
2.60
PK-35
2.50
VPS
2.50
Union Plaani
2.40
PoPo
2.40
HIFK Helsinki
2.40
Turku PS
2.33
Leki
2.33
Valtti
2.33
OLS
2.25
NiemU
2.25
Virkiä
2.25
ÅIFK
2.25
Huima / Urho
2.25
HauPa
2.25
Gnistan
2.25
EBK
2.25
AC Oulu
2.17
SalPa
2.00
EIF
2.00
JäPS
2.00
VJS
2.00
Reipas
2.00
TuPS
2.00
Gilla
2.00
HaPK Edustus
2.00
PIF
2.00
VPV
2.00
HPS II
2.00
Lasten
2.00
TPV
2.00
Futura
2.00
SJK
2.00
Honka
2.00
JIPPO
2.00
GBK
2.00
Kiisto
2.00
Atlantis
2.00
FC Kangasala
2.00
KajHa
2.00
KuPS
2.00
Inter Turku
2.00
FF Jaro
1.83
SalPa II
1.75
Gnistan O35
1.75
MP
1.75
Mariehamn
1.75
JäPS / Akatemia
1.75
KPV-j
1.75
ToTe
1.67
Töölön Taisto
1.67
VPS II
1.50
KäPa
1.50
PPJ
1.50
SJK Akatemia
1.50
PuiU Helsinki
1.50
POHU / Hurjin
1.50
Kiffen
1.50
Ylivieska
1.50
Kiffen 08 III
1.50
ACE
1.50
Fish United
1.50
LoPa
1.50
StaPa De Royale
1.50
PK-37
1.50
Vaajakoski
1.50
JS Hercules
1.50
P-Iirot
1.33
KuPS Akatemia
1.33
HJS Akatemia
1.33
Kooteepee
1.33
VJS II
1.33
JPS
1.04
TiPS/U21
1.04
Pallo-Pojat
1.04
KaPa Kajaani
1.04
Germania Helsinki
1.04
TPS 2
1.04
Santa Claus
1.04
Kraft
1.04
Kuopion Elo
1.04
JIPPO II
1.04
LePa
1.00
Rops
1.00
PKKU
1.00
TPV II
1.00
Jokerit
1.00
JJK
1.00
VG-62
1.00
JBK
1.00
VIFK
1.00
MaPS
1.00
VaKP
1.00
NJS
0.50
Ylöjärvi United
0.50
Karhu-Futis
0.50
POHU
0.50
SUMU
0.50
RoPo
0.00
EPS
0.00
MyPa
0.00
PEPO
0.00
GrIFK
0.00
KyPa
0.00
EIF Akademi
0.00
HPS
0.00
Puimur / Mando Utd
0.00
Ilves
0.00
Tampere United
0.00
KoPa
0.00
Heinäpään Hanhet 24
0.00
MPS
0.00
LappBK
0.00
Lahti
0.00
Ilves and Lahti are level in average points per game (both 0.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Loiske
7.50
Leki
7.00
PoPo
6.60
Kiffen 08 III
6.50
Kiisto
6.00
EBK
5.75
Virkiä
5.25
JäPS
4.67
Lasten
4.67
Haka
4.40
VPS II
4.00
ÅIFK
4.00
Ylivieska
4.00
Honka
4.00
Gilla
3.80
VPV
3.67
TPV
3.67
Valtti
3.67
Huima / Urho
3.50
LoPa
3.50
VPS
3.50
JIPPO
3.50
SJK
3.33
FF Jaro
3.33
HauPa
3.25
Gnistan
3.25
KPV-j
3.25
HIFK Helsinki
3.20
SJK Akatemia
3.00
HPS II
3.00
JJK
3.00
ACE
3.00
SalPa II
2.75
PK-35
2.75
Turku PS
2.67
P-Iirot
2.67
ToTe
2.67
GBK
2.67
Atlantis
2.67
OLS
2.50
KäPa
2.50
Kiffen
2.50
PK-37
2.50
JS Hercules
2.50
SUMU
2.50
Inter Turku
2.50
KuPS Akatemia
2.33
FC Kangasala
2.33
EIF
2.20
KuPS
2.20
AC Oulu
2.17
RoPo
2.00
Union Plaani
2.00
PEPO
2.00
LePa
2.00
Gnistan O35
2.00
Futura
2.00
Fish United
2.00
StaPa De Royale
2.00
Kooteepee
2.00
Mariehamn
2.00
VG-62
2.00
VIFK
2.00
Vaajakoski
2.00
JäPS / Akatemia
2.00
KajHa
2.00
JPS
1.92
TiPS/U21
1.92
Pallo-Pojat
1.92
KaPa Kajaani
1.92
Germania Helsinki
1.92
TPS 2
1.92
Santa Claus
1.92
Kraft
1.92
Kuopion Elo
1.92
JIPPO II
1.92
HJK Helsinki
1.80
NiemU
1.75
MP
1.75
VJS
1.67
HaPK Edustus
1.67
VJS II
1.67
SalPa
1.50
PPJ
1.50
PuiU Helsinki
1.50
PIF
1.50
POHU / Hurjin
1.50
Karhu-Futis
1.50
POHU
1.50
Töölön Taisto
1.33
Reipas
1.00
TuPS
1.00
GrIFK
1.00
NJS
1.00
PKKU
1.00
HJS Akatemia
1.00
TPV II
1.00
MPS
1.00
LappBK
1.00
Lahti
1.00
MaPS
0.67
Rops
0.50
Ylöjärvi United
0.50
EPS
0.00
MyPa
0.00
KyPa
0.00
EIF Akademi
0.00
Jokerit
0.00
HPS
0.00
Puimur / Mando Utd
0.00
Ilves
0.00
JBK
0.00
Tampere United
0.00
KoPa
0.00
Heinäpään Hanhet 24
0.00
VaKP
0.00
Ilves is 1.00 goals worse than Lahti in terms of goals scored per game (0.00 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Jokerit
0.00
JBK
0.00
VaKP
0.00
HJK Helsinki
0.20
PK-35
0.25
NiemU
0.50
Reipas
0.50
PPJ
0.50
TuPS
0.50
Rops
0.50
PIF
0.50
MP
0.50
Loiske
0.50
JIPPO
0.50
Inter Turku
0.50
Haka
0.60
JäPS
0.67
VJS
0.67
ToTe
0.67
TPV
0.67
HJS Akatemia
0.67
Honka
0.67
MaPS
0.67
Gnistan
0.75
KuPS
0.80
AC Oulu
0.83
Turku PS
1.00
SalPa
1.00
VPS II
1.00
EIF
1.00
KäPa
1.00
MyPa
1.00
PoPo
1.00
PKKU
1.00
Leki
1.00
TPV II
1.00
LoPa
1.00
VPS
1.00
Kiisto
1.00
Töölön Taisto
1.00
Heinäpään Hanhet 24
1.00
Valtti
1.00
OLS
1.25
EBK
1.25
SJK
1.33
FF Jaro
1.33
Kooteepee
1.33
Virkiä
1.50
Huima / Urho
1.50
PuiU Helsinki
1.50
POHU / Hurjin
1.50
Fish United
1.50
Ylöjärvi United
1.50
Union Plaani
1.60
HaPK Edustus
1.67
GBK
1.67
Atlantis
1.67
FC Kangasala
1.67
ÅIFK
1.75
SalPa II
1.75
Gnistan O35
1.75
Mariehamn
1.75
JäPS / Akatemia
1.75
Gilla
1.80
HIFK Helsinki
1.80
EPS
2.00
GrIFK
2.00
LePa
2.00
NJS
2.00
SJK Akatemia
2.00
HPS II
2.00
Ylivieska
2.00
Kiffen 08 III
2.00
EIF Akademi
2.00
PK-37
2.00
VG-62
2.00
VIFK
2.00
Vaajakoski
2.00
VJS II
2.00
MPS
2.00
KPV-j
2.00
Lahti
2.00
HauPa
2.25
Futura
2.33
KajHa
2.33
StaPa De Royale
2.50
Karhu-Futis
2.50
Lasten
2.67
JPS
2.93
TiPS/U21
2.93
Pallo-Pojat
2.93
KaPa Kajaani
2.93
Germania Helsinki
2.93
TPS 2
2.93
Santa Claus
2.93
Kraft
2.93
Kuopion Elo
2.93
JIPPO II
2.93
KuPS Akatemia
3.00
Kiffen
3.00
KyPa
3.00
JJK
3.00
ACE
3.00
Ilves
3.00
JS Hercules
3.00
Tampere United
3.00
LappBK
3.00
SUMU
3.00
P-Iirot
3.33
RoPo
4.00
PEPO
4.00
VPV
4.00
HPS
4.00
Puimur / Mando Utd
4.00
POHU
4.50
KoPa
7.00
Ilves is 1.00 goals worse than Lahti in terms of goals conceded per game (3.00 vs 2.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ilves or Draw✓ Hit
45.9%
Avg Implied -
24%
22%
54%
covers Ilves + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ilves or Lahti✓ Hit
78.5%
Avg Implied -
24%
22%
54%
covers Ilves + Lahti
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Lahti✗ Miss
75.6%
Avg Implied -
24%
22%
54%
covers Draw + Lahti
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ilves over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
77.9%
Under
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
44.6%
Under
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
19.4%
Under
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
89.7%
Under
10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
66.4%
Under
33.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
39.7%
Under
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
19.6%
Under
80.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Ilves, so a minus line means Ilves give that many goals of a start and Lahti receive them. At -1, Ilves must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ilves win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ilves)Actual: Ilves
Ilves -2
4.2%
Draw -2
7.2%
Lahti +2
88.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ilves)Actual: Ilves
Ilves -1
11.3%
Draw -1
13.1%
Lahti +1
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ilves)Actual: Ilves
Ilves +1
45.9%
Draw +1
20.1%
Lahti -1
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ilves)Actual: Ilves
Ilves +2
66.0%
Draw +2
16.3%
Lahti -2
17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

IlvesIlves

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D03L10W10W10W11D12L10W10W03LA·MAR18/04A·VPS24/04A·SJK02/05H·AC 08/05A·P-I13/05A·HJK16/05H·INT20/05H·GNI23/05H·TUR27/05A·LAH30/05
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.800.860.570.691.00
vs Stronger (6)1.171.170.671.001.671.33
vs Similar (22)0.680.731.000.500.420.92
vs Weaker (2)0.500.500.000.001.001.00
Clean sheet %53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Lahti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LahtiLahti

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D20W11D01L10W11D11D12L00D30WH·INT18/04H·AC 25/04A·UNI28/04A·HJK04/05H·MAR10/05H·MP13/05H·VPS18/05A·KUP23/05A·MAR26/05H·ILV30/05
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.571.200.400.870.73
vs Stronger (7)0.571.290.500.500.601.60
vs Similar (20)1.200.351.270.361.110.33
vs Weaker (3)1.000.331.500.500.000.00
Clean sheet %57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ilves over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

IlvesIlves

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D20W01L00D30W11D01L10W00D02LA·MAR18/04A·VPS24/04A·SJK02/05H·AC 08/05A·P-I13/05A·HJK16/05H·INT20/05H·GNI23/05H·TUR27/05A·LAH30/05
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.031.000.931.061.12
vs Stronger (6)1.171.171.331.331.001.00
vs Similar (22)0.951.000.800.801.081.17
vs Weaker (2)1.501.002.001.001.001.00
Clean sheet %33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Lahti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LahtiLahti

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L01L31W00D01L20W00D00D10W20WH·INT18/04H·AC 25/04A·UNI28/04A·HJK04/05H·MAR10/05H·MP13/05H·VPS18/05A·KUP23/05A·MAR26/05H·ILV30/05
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.600.930.731.000.47
vs Stronger (7)1.000.710.501.501.200.40
vs Similar (20)0.900.451.000.550.780.33
vs Weaker (3)1.331.331.001.002.002.00
Clean sheet %53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ilves over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 7.596.1%-------✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals93.3%-------✗ Miss
Under 6.591.0%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.589.9%-------✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals89.7%-------✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap88.7%-------✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls84.8%--------
Over 2.5 cards84.1%--------
Under 5.581.7%-------✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners80.9%--------
Home under 2.5 goals80.6%-------✗ Miss
Away under 3.5 goals80.4%-------✓ Hit
Home or Away78.5%-------✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals77.9%-------✓ Hit
Draw or Away75.6%-------✗ Miss
Away +1 handicap75.6%-------✗ Miss
Over 2.572.9%-------✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls72.6%--------
Under 10.5 corners71.4%--------
BTTS Yes70.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (26)
€6m
IT (25)
€5m
ILV (22)
€4m
SJK (26)
€4m
AO (23)
€4m
GNI (21)
€3m
LAH (21)
€2m
MAR (22)
€2m
FJ (20)
€2m
Ilves's squad is €2m more valuable than Lahti's (€4m vs €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (9)
€2m
IT (9)
€2m
SJK (8)
€1m
ILV (7)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
GNI (6)
€1m
LAH (9)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
Ilves and Lahti have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (6)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
SJK (9)
€1m
ILV (4)
€1m
FJ (6)
€1m
MAR (4)
€1m
GNI (5)
€1m
LAH (2)
€0m
Ilves and Lahti have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (11)
€3m
IT (11)
€2m
ILV (11)
€2m
SJK (9)
€2m
AO (11)
€1m
GNI (10)
€1m
LAH (10)
€1m
MAR (10)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
Ilves and Lahti have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
ILV wins
4
Draws
2
LAH wins

Head-to-head

Ilves vs Lahti · H/A from ILV
DateH/AGameScore
30/05/26ALahti Vs ILV5-0
29/06/24ALahti Vs ILV2-2
06/04/24HILV Vs Lahti0-0
21/10/23ALahti Vs ILV1-5
03/09/23ALahti Vs ILV3-2
03/06/23HILV Vs Lahti2-2
09/10/22HILV Vs Lahti1-0
29/07/22ALahti Vs ILV1-1

IlvesIlves

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/05/26ALahti Vs ILV5-0
27/05/26HILV Vs Turku PS1-0
23/05/26HILV Vs Gnistan2-0
20/05/26HILV Vs Inter Turku1-3
16/05/26AHJK Helsinki Vs ILV2-2
13/05/26AP-Iirot Vs ILV0-4
08/05/26HILV Vs AC Oulu1-0
02/05/26ASJK Vs ILV1-1
24/04/26AVPS Vs ILV3-2
18/04/26AMariehamn Vs ILV2-2

LahtiLahti

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/05/26HLAH Vs Ilves5-0
26/05/26AMariehamn Vs LAH0-1
23/05/26AKuPS Vs LAH2-1
18/05/26HLAH Vs VPS1-1
13/05/26HLAH Vs MP3-1
10/05/26HLAH Vs Mariehamn1-1
04/05/26AHJK Helsinki Vs LAH1-0
28/04/26AUnion Plaani Vs LAH2-4
25/04/26HLAH Vs AC Oulu2-1
18/04/26HLAH Vs Inter Turku0-2

📊 15. Overall Statistics

Ilves
Ilves
Finland: Suomen Cup
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWWL1.64
HomeLWLWW2.08
AwayLDWDL1.23
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%62%35%
AVG goals3.543.333.73
Over 1.5 %86%79%92%
Over 2.5 %74%71%77%
Over 3.5 %56%50%62%
Scored1.882.001.77
Conceded1.661.331.96
BTTS58%67%50%
Clean Sheet30%33%27%
Corners11.3311.5011.20
Cards3.653.673.64
Lahti
Lahti
Finland: Suomen Cup
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWW1.82
HomeWDWDW2.29
AwayWWLLW1.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%67%38%
AVG goals2.862.832.88
Over 1.5 %76%75%77%
Over 2.5 %60%58%62%
Over 3.5 %34%33%35%
Scored1.701.921.50
Conceded1.160.921.38
BTTS58%58%58%
Clean Sheet32%38%27%
Corners8.209.503.00
Cards4.604.256.00

🏆 16. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1KuPSKuPS2143
57%
2.0
3822+16
2.9
86%
48%
29%
8.1
33%
1.9
11%
19.9
44%
0
0001.81.0
57%
2Inter TurkuInter Turku2139
48%
1.9
2816+12
2.1
67%
33%
19%
10.7
67%
2.3
14%
19.7
57%
5
2121.30.8
58%
3GnistanGnistan2135
48%
1.7
3528+7
3.0
81%
48%
33%
10.1
57%
3.6
50%
24.2
71%
3
1111.71.3
44%
4HJK HelsinkiHJK Helsinki2134
48%
1.6
3426+8
2.9
71%
57%
29%
7.0
14%
3.0
43%
18.4
43%
6
2131.61.2
55%
5VPSVPS2133
43%
1.6
2921+8
2.4
62%
43%
29%
7.1
30%
3.4
50%
21.8
70%
0
0001.41.0
48%
6AC OuluAC Oulu2133
48%
1.6
2525+0
2.4
57%
38%
19%
9.5
38%
3.8
62%
22.6
50%
4
1111.21.2
48%
7Turku PSTurku PS2130
38%
1.4
2722+5
2.3
67%
48%
24%
7.7
40%
3.9
60%
20.3
60%
0
0001.31.0
50%
8LahtiLahti2129
38%
1.4
2519+6
2.1
67%
33%
10%
8.3
50%
3.8
60%
22.6
80%
2
1011.20.9
56%
9IlvesIlves2125
33%
1.2
3335-2
3.2
76%
62%
52%
8.1
11%
3.0
56%
18.0
44%
4
1121.61.7
49%
10SJKSJK2118
19%
0.9
2533-8
2.8
86%
57%
29%
9.0
57%
3.9
57%
20.4
57%
4
1121.21.6
50%
11FF JaroFF Jaro2115
14%
0.7
1842-24
2.9
81%
57%
29%
8.4
30%
3.1
40%
19.2
50%
2
1110.92.0
47%
12MariehamnMariehamn2111
10%
0.5
1543-28
2.8
86%
48%
24%
10.5
70%
3.0
64%
21.3
64%
2
1110.72.0
45%
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Veikkausliiga stats & trends →

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