PythiaFootballBETA
Ilves are tipped to win at home against Lahti, with a 52% chance of success. The match is expected to be a relatively low-scoring affair, with an average of 2.7 goals. The most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw, but Ilves are the favourites to take the three points.
Ilves have been struggling at home, scoring 2.33 goals on average but conceding just 1, while Lahti have been decent on the road, scoring 1.14 goals against stronger opponents but conceding 1.57.
The model suggests taking Over 1.5 goals, which has a 76.1% chance of occurring, and Under 3.5 goals, which has a 71.7% chance. The home win percentage stands at 52%, with a 26% chance of a draw and a 21% chance of an away win. Ilves are the model's selection for a home win, and the most likely score is 1-1 with a probability of 12.6%.
Ilves' 1-0 win extends their run, but it came after two straight defeats. The model correctly predicted a home win, with Ilves emerging as the favourite at 52% probability. The model's call was correct, as Ilves took the three points. The model's selection, Ilves to win, was the favourite, while the other selections were suggestions. Over 1.5 goals was the model's suggestion at 76.1%, but it missed, as the final score was 1-0. Under 3.5 goals, however, was the model's suggestion at 71.7% and it hit, as the total number of goals was indeed under 3.5.
Ilves| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.90 | 1.80 | 1.93 | 1.29 | 1.88 | 2.25 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 2.25 | 2.50 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.91 | 1.57 | 2.09 | 1.18 | 1.75 | 1.92 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.33 | 2.67 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 3.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
Lahti| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.67 | 1.07 | 1.81 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.14 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 1.60 | 1.50 | 1.83 | 1.17 | 1.25 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (15) | 1.53 | 0.67 | 1.57 | 0.57 | 1.50 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 2.20 | 1.40 | 2.33 | 1.67 | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+9pp vs league) | |||||
| Lahti goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.9% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 10% | 13% | 5.7% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 9.7% | 9.7% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 5.5% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
IlvesLahtiIlves| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.5 | 10.8 | 10.3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 18.9 | 18.8 | 19.0 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 9.6 | 10.0 | 9.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 17.6 | 13.0 | 20.7 |
| vs Similar (32) | 10.9 | 11.0 | 10.9 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 19.2 | 20.2 | 18.2 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 9.0 | - | 9.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 20.0 | - | 20.0 |
| % over line | 55% | 40% | 67% | 24% | 22% | 26% | 45% | 50% | 42% |
| % under line | 45% | 60% | 33% | 76% | 78% | 74% | 55% | 50% | 58% |
Lahti| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.3 | 8.9 | 7.0 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 22.6 | 21.6 | 25.0 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 8.0 | 8.0 | - | 0.7 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 | - |
| vs Similar (28) | 8.4 | 9.5 | 7.0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| vs Weaker (10) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 50% | 57% | 33% | 12% | 15% | 8% | 80% | 71% | 100% |
| % under line | 50% | 43% | 67% | 88% | 85% | 92% | 20% | 29% | 0% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 76.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | â Miss |
| Under 3.5 | 71.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | â Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/05/26 | A | 5-0 | |
| 29/06/24 | A | 2-2 | |
| 06/04/24 | H | 0-0 | |
| 21/10/23 | A | 1-5 | |
| 03/09/23 | A | 3-2 | |
| 03/06/23 | H | 2-2 | |
| 09/10/22 | H | 1-0 | |
| 29/07/22 | A | 1-1 |
Ilves| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 04/07/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 27/06/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 23/06/26 | A | 4-3 | |
| 17/06/26 | H | 5-0 | |
| 13/06/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 30/05/26 | A | 5-0 | |
| 23/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 20/05/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 2-2 |
Lahti| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 11/07/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 04/07/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 27/06/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 23/06/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 17/06/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 13/06/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 30/05/26 | H | 5-0 | |
| 23/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 18/05/26 | H | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value âŽm | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  KuPS | 20 | 43 | 60% | 2.1 | 36 | 18 | +18 | 2.7 | 85% | 45% | 25% | 8.1 | 33% | 1.9 | 11% | 19.9 | 44% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 57% |
| 2 |  Inter Turku | 20 | 38 | 50% | 1.9 | 28 | 16 | +12 | 2.2 | 70% | 35% | 20% | 10.7 | 67% | 2.3 | 14% | 19.7 | 57% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 58% |
| 3 |  HJK Helsinki | 20 | 34 | 50% | 1.7 | 32 | 23 | +9 | 2.8 | 70% | 55% | 25% | 7.0 | 14% | 3.0 | 43% | 18.4 | 43% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 55% |
| 4 |  Gnistan | 20 | 32 | 45% | 1.6 | 32 | 26 | +6 | 2.9 | 80% | 45% | 30% | 10.1 | 57% | 3.6 | 50% | 24.2 | 71% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 44% |
| 5 |  VPS | 20 | 30 | 40% | 1.5 | 28 | 21 | +7 | 2.5 | 65% | 45% | 30% | 7.1 | 30% | 3.4 | 50% | 21.8 | 70% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 48% |
| 6 |  AC Oulu | 20 | 30 | 45% | 1.5 | 24 | 25 | -1 | 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 20% | 9.5 | 38% | 3.8 | 62% | 22.6 | 50% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 48% |
| 7 |  Turku PS | 20 | 29 | 40% | 1.4 | 27 | 22 | +5 | 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 25% | 7.7 | 40% | 3.9 | 60% | 20.3 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 50% |
| 8 | Lahti | 20 | 26 | 35% | 1.3 | 23 | 18 | +5 | 2.0 | 65% | 30% | 10% | 8.3 | 50% | 3.8 | 60% | 22.6 | 80% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 56% |
| 9 | Ilves | 20 | 25 | 35% | 1.2 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 3.4 | 80% | 65% | 55% | 8.1 | 11% | 3.0 | 56% | 18.0 | 44% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 49% |
| 10 |  SJK | 20 | 18 | 20% | 0.9 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 2.8 | 85% | 55% | 30% | 9.0 | 57% | 3.9 | 57% | 20.4 | 57% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 50% |
| 11 |  FF Jaro | 20 | 15 | 15% | 0.8 | 18 | 41 | -23 | 3.0 | 85% | 60% | 30% | 8.4 | 30% | 3.1 | 40% | 19.2 | 50% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 47% |
| 12 |  Mariehamn | 20 | 8 | 5% | 0.4 | 11 | 41 | -30 | 2.6 | 85% | 45% | 20% | 10.5 | 70% | 3.0 | 64% | 21.3 | 64% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | 2.0 | 45% |