Ilves is the clear favourite to win at home against Mariehamn, thanks to their impressive home form against weaker opponents, averaging 2 goals scored and just 0.75 conceded. They have a 74% chance of winning, with a 17% chance of a draw and a 9% chance of an away win. The model predicts a home win as the most likely outcome.
The expected total number of goals is 3.3, with a most likely total of 3 goals. The most likely score is 2-0, with a probability of 11.4%.
Ilves have been struggling recently, having lost their last two matches, including a 0-1 defeat to HNK Rijeka. However, they have a strong home record against weaker opponents. Mariehamn, on the other hand, have been poor on the road, averaging 0.85 goals scored and 2.69 conceded against stronger opponents.
The model suggests two selections: Over 1.5 goals, with an 85.1% probability and a 2% edge, and Home win, with a 73.7% probability and a 3% edge. The home side has a 74% chance of winning, a 17% chance of a draw, and a 9% chance of an away win.
Ilves' win extends their run of form, having come off a win and now claiming a second consecutive victory over Mariehamn, this time by a 2-0 score. The home win was the pre-match favourite, with a 74% probability of success, and the Pythia prediction model's call was correct. The model's selection of Home win was also one of the suggested picks, alongside Over 1.5 goals, which hit with an 85.1% probability. The other suggested pick, Home win, also hit, with a 73.7% probability.
Ilves| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.73 | 1.60 | 2.00 | 1.21 | 1.50 | 1.94 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 1.79 | 1.61 | 2.00 | 1.21 | 1.57 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 2.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
Mariehamn| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.13 | 1.87 | 1.07 | 1.33 | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| vs Stronger (15) | 0.80 | 2.27 | 1.12 | 1.50 | 0.43 | 3.14 |
| vs Similar (15) | 1.47 | 1.47 | 1.00 | 1.14 | 1.88 | 1.75 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-12pp vs league) | |||||
| Mariehamn goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 4.4% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 8.4% | 8.1% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 11% | 9.2% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 9.6% | 7.7% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 6.0% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
Ilves
Mariehamn
Ilves| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.5 | 10.8 | 10.3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 18.9 | 18.8 | 19.0 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 11.0 | 13.0 | 10.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 19.3 | 15.0 | 21.5 |
| vs Similar (43) | 10.5 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 18.8 | 19.2 | 18.4 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 9.0 | - | 9.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 20.0 | - | 20.0 |
| % over line | 57% | 40% | 69% | 26% | 22% | 30% | 43% | 50% | 38% |
| % under line | 43% | 60% | 31% | 74% | 78% | 70% | 57% | 50% | 62% |
Mariehamn| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.5 | 11.2 | 9.3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 20.3 | 20.6 | 19.8 |
| vs Stronger (27) | 9.5 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 19.9 | 20.0 | 19.8 |
| vs Similar (23) | 11.0 | 11.8 | 9.6 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 20.5 | 20.9 | 19.8 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 68% | 77% | 56% | 24% | 32% | 16% | 52% | 50% | 56% |
| % under line | 32% | 23% | 44% | 76% | 68% | 84% | 48% | 50% | 44% |
Ilves| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 0.93 | 1.14 | 0.57 | 0.56 | 1.25 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.86 | 0.93 | 1.14 | 0.57 | 0.57 | 1.29 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
Mariehamn| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.43 | 0.77 | 0.47 | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (15) | 0.40 | 0.93 | 0.62 | 0.75 | 0.14 | 1.14 |
| vs Similar (15) | 0.47 | 0.60 | 0.29 | 0.43 | 0.62 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
Ilves| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.67 | 0.86 | 0.64 | 0.94 | 0.69 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.93 | 0.68 | 0.86 | 0.64 | 1.00 | 0.71 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Mariehamn| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 1.10 | 0.60 | 0.73 | 0.80 | 1.47 |
| vs Stronger (15) | 0.40 | 1.33 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.29 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (15) | 1.00 | 0.87 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 85.1% | 1.12 | 1.15 | 1.14 | 1.13 | 1.13 | 1.13 | +1.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Home win | 73.7% | 1.30 | 1.33 | 1.32 | 1.32 | 1.32 | 1.31 | +2.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 31/08/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 27/04/25 | A | 3-2 | |
| 11/08/24 | H | 2-0 | |
| 28/04/24 | A | 0-1 | |
| 27/09/23 | H | 2-1 | |
| 15/07/23 | H | 0-0 | |
| 05/04/23 | A | 1-1 |
Ilves| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 02/08/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 26/07/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 20/07/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 04/07/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 01/07/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 27/06/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 23/06/26 | A | 4-3 | |
| 17/06/26 | H | 5-0 | |
| 13/06/26 | H | 1-0 |
Mariehamn| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 25/07/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 20/07/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 11/07/26 | A | 4-2 | |
| 04/07/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 27/06/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 23/06/26 | H | 0-4 | |
| 18/06/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 13/06/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 30/05/26 | A | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | KuPS | 22 | 43 | 55% | 2.0 | 38 | 23 | +15 | 2.8 | 82% | 45% | 27% | 8.1 | 33% | 1.9 | 11% | 19.9 | 44% | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 57% |
| 2 | Inter Turku | 22 | 42 | 50% | 1.9 | 29 | 16 | +13 | 2.0 | 64% | 32% | 18% | 10.7 | 67% | 2.3 | 14% | 19.7 | 57% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 58% |
| 3 | HJK Helsinki | 22 | 37 | 50% | 1.7 | 36 | 27 | +9 | 2.9 | 73% | 59% | 27% | 7.0 | 14% | 3.0 | 43% | 18.4 | 43% | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 55% |
| 4 | Gnistan | 22 | 36 | 45% | 1.6 | 36 | 29 | +7 | 3.0 | 82% | 45% | 32% | 10.1 | 57% | 3.6 | 50% | 24.2 | 71% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 44% |
| 5 | AC Oulu | 22 | 34 | 45% | 1.5 | 25 | 25 | +0 | 2.3 | 55% | 36% | 18% | 9.5 | 38% | 3.8 | 62% | 22.6 | 50% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 48% |
| 6 | VPS | 22 | 33 | 41% | 1.5 | 29 | 22 | +7 | 2.3 | 59% | 41% | 27% | 7.1 | 30% | 3.4 | 50% | 21.8 | 70% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 48% |
| 7 | Lahti | 22 | 32 | 41% | 1.5 | 26 | 19 | +7 | 2.0 | 64% | 32% | 9% | 8.3 | 50% | 3.8 | 60% | 22.6 | 80% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 56% |
| 8 | Turku PS | 22 | 31 | 36% | 1.4 | 28 | 23 | +5 | 2.3 | 68% | 45% | 23% | 7.7 | 40% | 3.9 | 60% | 20.3 | 60% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 50% |
| 9 | Ilves | 22 | 25 | 32% | 1.1 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 3.2 | 77% | 64% | 50% | 8.1 | 11% | 3.0 | 56% | 18.0 | 44% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 49% |
| 10 | SJK | 22 | 19 | 18% | 0.9 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 2.6 | 82% | 55% | 27% | 9.0 | 57% | 3.9 | 57% | 20.4 | 57% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 50% |
| 11 | FF Jaro | 22 | 15 | 14% | 0.7 | 18 | 44 | -26 | 2.8 | 82% | 55% | 27% | 8.4 | 30% | 3.1 | 40% | 19.2 | 50% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 47% |
| 12 | Mariehamn | 22 | 14 | 14% | 0.6 | 17 | 43 | -26 | 2.7 | 86% | 45% | 23% | 10.5 | 70% | 3.0 | 64% | 21.3 | 64% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 45% |