Ilves are expected to come out on top in this match, following their recent win over Mariehamn. The home side has been scoring at a rate of 2.12 goals per game at home, where they've also been conceding an average of 1.38 goals. VPS, on the other hand, have a poor away record, scoring 0.82 goals per game and conceding 1.09. The model suggests a home win as the favourite, with a 52% chance of victory, followed by a 26% chance of a draw and a 22% chance of an away win.
The expected total goals in this match is 2.8, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, occurring 12.5% of the time. The model's selection is the Over 1.5, which has an 77.6% chance of occurring.
Ilves have a 52% chance of winning, a 26% chance of drawing, and a 22% chance of losing. The model's suggested picks include the Over 1.5 (77.6%), and the home win (52%).
Results analysis
The upset came early as Ilves failed to convert their pre-match favourite status, with VPS snatching a 1-0 victory after Ilves’ recent run of two straight defeats. The model had picked a home win at 52 % probability, but that call proved wrong. The final score of 0-1 confirmed the away win. Every suggested selection from the model was a hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.2 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.4 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.7 %, Under 6.5 at 97.7 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.6 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.3 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 94.8 %, and Under 5.5 at 93.7 %. Each probability was expressed as a percentage and the outcomes were noted without repetition.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ilves win✗ Miss
51.5%
Avg Implied 40.1% · @ 2.30
Edge
+11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.44
Dafabet
2.38
1xBet
2.38
Betano
2.37
Marathonbet
2.35
Draw✗ Miss
26.2%
Avg Implied 26.3% · @ 3.51
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.76
Dafabet
3.65
1xBet
3.58
Marathonbet
3.56
Betano
3.55
VPS win✓ Hit
22.3%
Avg Implied 33.6% · @ 2.75
Edge
-11.3%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.84
Unibet
2.80
Bet365
2.80
Dafabet
2.80
Pinnacle
2.80
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ilves
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.57
2.07
1.07
1.56
2.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
1.88
1.65
2.17
1.17
1.64
2.07
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (VPS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
VPS
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
1.07
2.20
1.07
2.07
1.07
vs Stronger (7)
3.00
1.14
3.33
0.67
2.75
1.50
vs Similar (20)
1.85
1.10
1.73
1.27
2.00
0.89
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.67
4.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
77.6%
@ 1.18-1.3%
Under 1.5
22.4%
@ 4.41+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
888Sport
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Under
Betfair
5.00
Pinnacle
4.68
BetVictor
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.40
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.4%
@ 1.62-5.5%
Under 2.5
47.6%
@ 2.22+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.69
Marathonbet
1.65
Betano
1.65
888Sport
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Under
Pinnacle
2.26
Bet365
2.25
10Bet
2.25
Superbet
2.25
Betfair
2.25
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.2%
@ 2.50-6.9%
Under 3.5
69.8%
@ 1.48+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.71
Betfair
2.55
Betano
2.52
10Bet
2.50
888Sport
2.50
Under
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.7%
@ 1.50-6.9%
No
45.3%
@ 2.41+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Marathonbet
1.52
Betano
1.52
Unibet
1.50
888Sport
1.50
1xBet
1.50
No
Betfair
2.50
Bet365
2.50
BetVictor
2.45
1xBet
2.42
Superbet
2.42
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%@ 6.56+5.7%
2-1
9.7%@ 8.42+4.5%
1-0
9.6%@ 9.72+5.0%
2-0
9.2%@ 12.13+5.5%
0-0
7.4%@ 12.84+3.9%
1-2
6.0%@ 9.11+1.2%
3-1
5.5%@ 15.01+2.6%
0-1 ✓
5.5%@ 10.56+1.3%
Ilves goals ↓
VPS goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
5.5%
3.5%
1.2%
0.3%
1
9.6%
12%
6.0%
2.1%
0.6%
2
9.2%
9.7%
5.2%
1.8%
0.5%
3
5.2%
5.5%
2.9%
1.0%
0.3%
4
2.2%
2.4%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ilves goals (down), columns = VPS goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
KuPS
1.95
Inter Turku
1.91
HJK Helsinki
1.68
Gnistan
1.64
AC Oulu
1.55
VPS
1.50
Lahti
1.45
Turku PS
1.41
Ilves
1.14
SJK
0.86
FF Jaro
0.68
Mariehamn
0.64
Ilves is 0.36 points worse than VPS in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KuPS
1.73
HJK Helsinki
1.64
Gnistan
1.64
Ilves
1.55
VPS
1.32
Inter Turku
1.32
Turku PS
1.27
Lahti
1.18
SJK
1.14
AC Oulu
1.14
FF Jaro
0.82
Mariehamn
0.77
Ilves is 0.23 goals better than VPS in terms of goals scored per game (1.55 vs 1.32).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Inter Turku
0.73
Lahti
0.86
VPS
1.00
KuPS
1.05
Turku PS
1.05
AC Oulu
1.14
HJK Helsinki
1.23
Gnistan
1.32
SJK
1.50
Ilves
1.68
Mariehamn
1.95
FF Jaro
2.00
Ilves is 0.68 goals worse than VPS in terms of goals conceded per game (1.68 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Inter Turku
58%
KuPS
57%
Lahti
56%
HJK Helsinki
55%
SJK
50%
Turku PS
50%
Ilves
49%
VPS
48%
AC Oulu
48%
FF Jaro
47%
Mariehamn
45%
Gnistan
44%
Ilves is 1.4 percentage points better than VPS in terms of average possession (49% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ilves
For 3.7 · Against 4.6 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.1 · Against 9.9 · Total 19.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
VPS
For 3.2 · Against 3.9 · Total 7.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 9.3 · Total 21.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ilves
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.5
10.3
1.7
1.7
1.8
19.1
18.9
19.2
vs Stronger (6)
10.0
10.0
10.0
2.5
1.7
3.3
19.5
17.5
21.5
vs Similar (41)
10.6
10.6
10.6
1.6
1.8
1.5
18.9
19.2
18.7
vs Weaker (3)
9.0
-
9.0
1.3
0.0
4.0
20.0
-
20.0
% over line
52%
36%
67%
26%
21%
31%
43%
45%
42%
% under line
48%
64%
33%
74%
79%
69%
57%
55%
58%
This opponent (VPS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
VPS
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
8.6
9.0
1.2
1.4
1.0
22.3
21.5
23.2
vs Stronger (11)
8.5
9.7
5.0
1.5
3.0
0.3
23.8
22.7
27.0
vs Similar (34)
8.6
7.8
9.3
1.1
0.9
1.2
22.2
22.2
22.2
vs Weaker (5)
9.7
9.0
11.0
1.4
1.5
1.3
20.7
18.0
26.0
% over line
50%
50%
50%
16%
17%
15%
67%
60%
75%
% under line
50%
50%
50%
84%
83%
85%
33%
40%
25%
This opponent (Ilves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Gnistan
11.5
Inter Turku
10.7
Mariehamn
10.3
SJK
10.1
Ilves
10.1
AC Oulu
10.1
FF Jaro
10.1
HJK Helsinki
9.9
KuPS
9.9
VPS
9.8
Lahti
9.8
Turku PS
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lahti
4.5
Turku PS
4.3
Gnistan
4.0
AC Oulu
3.9
SJK
3.9
Mariehamn
3.9
Ilves
3.8
Inter Turku
3.8
VPS
3.6
FF Jaro
3.3
KuPS
3.2
HJK Helsinki
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SJK
23.8
Inter Turku
23.3
Ilves
23.2
Lahti
23.1
AC Oulu
22.7
Gnistan
22.5
VPS
22.4
KuPS
22.0
Mariehamn
21.9
Turku PS
21.8
HJK Helsinki
20.5
FF Jaro
18.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
32.9%
@ 1.63-23.9%
Under 9.5
67.1%
@ 2.14+23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.67
Pinnacle
1.66
1xBet
1.63
Unibet
1.63
Superbet
1.59
Under
Superbet
2.22
Pinnacle
2.16
Marathonbet
2.15
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.09
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
33.9%
Under 3.5
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
37.0%
Under 21.5
63.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ilves or Draw✗ Miss
77.7%
Avg Implied 66.5% · @ 1.41
Edge
+11.1%
52%
26%
22%
covers Ilves + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Betfair
1.40
Ilves or VPS✓ Hit
73.8%
Avg Implied 74.0% · @ 1.26
Edge
-0.2%
52%
26%
22%
covers Ilves + VPS
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.30
888Sport
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.28
Draw or VPS✓ Hit
48.5%
Avg Implied 59.5% · @ 1.57
Edge
-11.0%
52%
26%
22%
covers Draw + VPS
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.67
10Bet
1.62
William Hil
1.60
Betano
1.60
888Sport
1.60
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ilves over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
82.0%
@ 1.18+3.7%
Under
18.0%
@ 4.27-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
BetVictor
1.18
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Under
Bet365
4.50
Pinnacle
4.41
BetVictor
4.33
10Bet
4.33
888Sport
4.33
Ilves over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
51.1%
@ 1.96+3.5%
Under
48.9%
@ 1.78-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.12
Marathonbet
2.01
1xBet
2.00
Betano
1.98
888Sport
1.95
Under
Bet365
1.83
10Bet
1.80
1xBet
1.78
Betano
1.78
Superbet
1.78
Ilves over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
24.6%
@ 4.01+1.5%
Under
75.4%
@ 1.21-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.47
BetVictor
4.20
Marathonbet
4.15
1xBet
4.10
888Sport
4.00
Under
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Ilves over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
9.5%
@ 8.93-0.9%
Under
90.5%
@ 1.04+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
10.00
Bet365
10.00
Marathonbet
8.80
1xBet
8.70
Superbet
8.40
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
VPS over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
65.4%
@ 1.24-9.5%
Under
34.6%
@ 3.70+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
888Sport
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.96
BetVictor
3.80
Superbet
3.75
Betano
3.75
Bet365
3.75
VPS over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
28.6%
@ 2.18-14.1%
Under
71.4%
@ 1.63+14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.31
Marathonbet
2.21
888Sport
2.20
10Bet
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Under
1xBet
1.68
BetVictor
1.65
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
Superbet
1.65
VPS over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.2%
@ 4.73-10.4%
Under
90.8%
@ 1.15+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
888Sport
5.00
Marathonbet
4.80
BetVictor
4.75
10Bet
4.75
Under
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
VPS over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 10.90-6.4%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.03+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
888Sport
13.00
Marathonbet
10.50
Superbet
10.00
1xBet
9.90
Under
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ilves, so a minus line means Ilves give that many goals of a start and VPS receive them. At -1, Ilves must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ilves win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ilves)Actual: VPS
Ilves -2
12.7%
@ 8.25+1.9%
Draw -2
16.1%
@ 6.31+2.0%
VPS +2
71.2%
@ 1.19-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
8.50
Marathonbet
8.30
Superbet
8.20
Unibet
8.00
Draw
Marathonbet
6.55
Bet365
6.50
Superbet
6.20
Unibet
6.00
Away
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.19
Superbet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.15
Handicap -1 (Ilves)Actual: VPS
Ilves -1
28.8%
@ 4.16+7.4%
Draw -1
22.7%
@ 4.11+1.0%
VPS +1
48.5%
@ 1.56-8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.33
Marathonbet
4.20
Superbet
4.15
10Bet
4.00
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Superbet
4.15
Marathonbet
4.10
10Bet
3.95
Away
10Bet
1.62
Unibet
1.58
Superbet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Handicap +1 (Ilves)Actual: Draw
Ilves +1
77.7%
@ 1.40+13.9%
Draw +1
13.6%
@ 4.58-5.9%
VPS -1
8.7%
@ 5.38-8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.42
Superbet
1.42
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Unibet
1.38
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.45
Unibet
4.35
Away
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
5.50
Unibet
5.40
Marathonbet
5.00
Superbet
5.00
Handicap +2 (Ilves)Actual: Ilves
Ilves +2
91.3%
@ 1.10+12.2%
Draw +2
6.2%
@ 7.03-6.2%
VPS -2
2.5%
@ 10.27-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Unibet
1.10
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Unibet
7.50
Marathonbet
5.10
Away
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
11.00
Marathonbet
6.80
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ilves
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.97
1.21
0.57
0.69
1.31
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.96
1.04
1.25
0.67
0.71
1.36
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (VPS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
VPS
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.60
1.33
0.47
1.07
0.73
vs Stronger (7)
1.57
0.86
2.33
0.33
1.00
1.25
vs Similar (20)
1.05
0.55
1.00
0.55
1.11
0.56
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
70.8%
@ 1.28-1.7%
Under 0.5
29.2%
@ 3.38+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Under
Betfair
3.50
William Hil
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.35
10Bet
3.35
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
34.1%
@ 2.32-5.9%
Under 1.5
65.9%
@ 1.55+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.50
Marathonbet
2.39
Betfair
2.38
1xBet
2.34
Unibet
2.32
Under
Betano
1.60
William Hil
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Superbet
1.56
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.8%
@ 5.15-6.2%
Under 2.5
88.2%
@ 1.13+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.25
Unibet
5.10
1xBet
5.10
Under
Betano
1.16
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ilves over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
52.4%
@ 1.82+1.5%
Under
47.6%
@ 1.89-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathonbet
1.84
1xBet
1.84
Betano
1.82
Superbet
1.80
Under
10Bet
1.95
Betano
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
Unibet
1.90
Superbet
1.90
Ilves over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
16.3%
@ 5.02-2.1%
Under
83.7%
@ 1.13+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.35
Marathonbet
5.35
Superbet
4.90
Betano
4.75
10Bet
4.75
Under
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Ilves over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.7%
@ 13.17-3.5%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.02+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
VPS over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
38.8%
@ 1.95-8.9%
Under
61.2%
@ 1.77+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.03
Unibet
1.96
10Bet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
Superbet
1.92
Under
Betano
1.82
Pinnacle
1.80
Superbet
1.78
1xBet
1.77
10Bet
1.77
VPS over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.5%
@ 5.70-7.7%
Under
91.5%
@ 1.10+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.00
1xBet
5.85
10Bet
5.75
Superbet
5.60
Betano
5.30
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
VPS over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 16.42-4.3%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.01+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
19.00
10Bet
19.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ilves
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.60
0.86
0.50
0.88
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.92
0.62
0.92
0.50
0.93
0.71
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (VPS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
VPS
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.47
0.87
0.60
1.00
0.33
vs Stronger (7)
1.43
0.29
1.00
0.33
1.75
0.25
vs Similar (20)
0.80
0.55
0.73
0.73
0.89
0.33
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
78.3%
Under 0.5
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
46.7%
Under 1.5
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.3%
Under 2.5
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ilves over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
55.4%
Under
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
21.9%
Under
78.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.2%
Under
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VPS over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
46.9%
Under
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VPS over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.1%
Under
86.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VPS over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.7%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.03
-
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.7%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Bet365
1.06
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.5%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
+7.7%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
91.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Unibet
1.10
-
-
+12.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
90.8%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
+10.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
90.5%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.2%
1.13
Betano
1.16
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
85.2%
1.18
Betano
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Betfair
1.20
888Sport
1.18
Bet365
1.18
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
83.7%
1.13
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
82.0%
1.18
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
BetVictor
1.18
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
+3.7%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
77.7%
1.41
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Betfair
1.40
+11.1%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
77.7%
1.40
Marathonbet
1.42
Superbet
1.42
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Unibet
1.38
+13.9%
✗ Miss
Under 23.5 fouls
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
77.6%
1.18
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
888Sport
1.18
Unibet
1.18
-1.3%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
75.4%
1.21
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
-1.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.8%
1.26
Bet365
1.30
888Sport
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.28
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
71.4%
1.63
1xBet
1.68
BetVictor
1.65
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
Superbet
1.65
+14.1%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
71.2%
1.19
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.19
Superbet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.15
-
-3.9%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.8%
1.28
Betano
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
-1.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Ilves
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
T. Hytönen43%
J. Kanga43%
R. Riski33%
J. Veteli25%
Maksim Stjopin20%
Otto Tiitinen17%
Oliver Pettersson12%
T. Miettunen0%
A. Popovitch0%
M. Rale0%
F. Krkalić0%
K. Wallius0%
J. Kilo0%
Stanislav Baranov0%
Y. Raap0%
Oskari Multala0%
V. Kumpu0%
Abdoul Goudouss Bamba0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
K. Wallius33%
Y. Raap29%
T. Miettunen25%
Maksim Stjopin20%
R. Riski17%
J. Kanga14%
A. Popovitch12%
J. Veteli0%
M. Rale0%
F. Krkalić0%
T. Hytönen0%
Oliver Pettersson0%
J. Kilo0%
Stanislav Baranov0%
Oskari Multala0%
Otto Tiitinen0%
V. Kumpu0%
Abdoul Goudouss Bamba0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
J. Kilo50%
J. Kanga29%
R. Riski0%
T. Miettunen0%
A. Popovitch0%
J. Veteli0%
M. Rale0%
F. Krkalić0%
Maksim Stjopin0%
K. Wallius0%
T. Hytönen0%
Oliver Pettersson0%
Stanislav Baranov0%
Y. Raap0%
Oskari Multala0%
Otto Tiitinen0%
V. Kumpu0%
Abdoul Goudouss Bamba0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
T. Hytönen29%
Maksim Stjopin20%
J. Kanga14%
J. Kilo12%
R. Riski0%
T. Miettunen0%
A. Popovitch0%
J. Veteli0%
M. Rale0%
F. Krkalić0%
K. Wallius0%
Oliver Pettersson0%
Stanislav Baranov0%
Y. Raap0%
Oskari Multala0%
Otto Tiitinen0%
V. Kumpu0%
Abdoul Goudouss Bamba0%
VPS
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Luka Smyth62%
Olavi Keturi25%
Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi20%
A. Räisänen14%
L. Mane14%
M. Haukioja10%
J. Turfkruier10%
K. Kouassivi-Benissan0%
S. Lindholm0%
M. Niemi0%
Y. Daoussi0%
Jonathan Muzinga0%
Paulo Lima0%
V. Rönnberg0%
E. Okereke0%
Mamadou Jalloh0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Paulo Lima33%
J. Turfkruier30%
V. Rönnberg20%
K. Kouassivi-Benissan14%
S. Lindholm14%
A. Räisänen14%
Y. Daoussi14%
L. Mane14%
Luka Smyth12%
M. Haukioja10%
M. Niemi0%
Jonathan Muzinga0%
E. Okereke0%
Olavi Keturi0%
Mamadou Jalloh0%
Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
J. Turfkruier20%
K. Kouassivi-Benissan14%
Y. Daoussi14%
M. Haukioja10%
Jonathan Muzinga10%
S. Lindholm0%
A. Räisänen0%
M. Niemi0%
Paulo Lima0%
V. Rönnberg0%
Luka Smyth0%
E. Okereke0%
Olavi Keturi0%
Mamadou Jalloh0%
L. Mane0%
Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. Räisänen14%
Luka Smyth12%
K. Kouassivi-Benissan0%
M. Haukioja0%
S. Lindholm0%
M. Niemi0%
Y. Daoussi0%
Jonathan Muzinga0%
Paulo Lima0%
V. Rönnberg0%
J. Turfkruier0%
E. Okereke0%
Olavi Keturi0%
Mamadou Jalloh0%
L. Mane0%
Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (30)
€7m
HH (28)
€7m
IT (25)
€5m
ILV (23)
€4m
SJK (26)
€4m
AO (23)
€4m
VPS (22)
€3m
GNI (21)
€3m
LAH (22)
€3m
MAR (23)
€2m
TP (22)
€2m
FJ (20)
€2m
Ilves and VPS have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (10)
€2m
KUP (9)
€2m
IT (9)
€2m
SJK (8)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
ILV (7)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
GNI (6)
€1m
LAH (9)
€1m
TP (8)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
Ilves and VPS have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (9)
€3m
HH (6)
€1m
ILV (5)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
SJK (9)
€1m
FJ (6)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
MAR (4)
€1m
GNI (5)
€1m
LAH (3)
€1m
TP (4)
€0m
Ilves and VPS have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (12)
€3m
KUP (12)
€3m
IT (11)
€2m
ILV (11)
€2m
SJK (9)
€2m
VPS (12)
€1m
AO (11)
€1m
GNI (10)
€1m
LAH (10)
€1m
TP (10)
€1m
MAR (10)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
Ilves and VPS have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Veikkausliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
KuPS
Inter Turku
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
AC Oulu
Lahti
Turku PS
SJK
FF Jaro
Mariehamn