IMT Novi Beograd are the clear favourites, with the model rating a 66% chance of a home win. Their recent 1-2 defeat to Radnicki 1923 shows they are still finding form, but the 1.08 average goals scored at home against similar opposition and a low 0.75 goals conceded give them the edge over Macva, who averages only 0.62 goals scored and 0.85 conceded away. The expected total of 1.9 goals points to a low-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-0, a 21.5% probability. The model also picks a 26% draw and an 8% away win, but the home win remains the top outcome. Suggested selections include Away under 3.5 goals at 99.9%, Under 7.5 at 99.9%, Under 6.5 at 99.6%, Away under 2.5 goals at 99.3%, Under 5.5 at 98.6%, Home +2 handicap at 98.5%, Under 4.5 at 95.3% and Over 19.5 fouls at 94.3%. The match is expected to be a tight contest with the home side holding a decisive advantage.
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šÆ 1. Model Analysis
IMT Novi Beograd win
67.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Macva win
7.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ā½ 2. Goal Analysis
IMT Novi Beograd
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.87
1.19
0.69
1.14
1.07
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
1.09
0.86
1.10
0.50
1.08
1.17
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.80
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Macva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Macva
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.90
1.57
0.57
0.62
1.19
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
3.33
1.00
3.00
0.00
3.50
vs Similar (25)
1.08
0.64
1.58
0.42
0.62
0.85
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (IMT Novi Beograd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
59.0%
Under 1.5
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
31.1%
Under 2.5
68.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
13.5%
Under 3.5
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
25.4%
No
74.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
21.6%
2-0
17.8%
0-0
15.0%
3-0
9.4%
1-1
9.1%
2-1
6.6%
0-1
4.4%
4-0
3.7%
IMT Novi Beograd goals ↓
Macva goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
4.4%
1.0%
0.1%
0.0%
1
22%
9.1%
1.5%
0.2%
0.0%
2
18%
6.6%
1.2%
0.1%
0.0%
3
9.4%
3.5%
0.6%
0.1%
0.0%
4
3.7%
1.4%
0.3%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = IMT Novi Beograd goals (down), columns = Macva goals (across).
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šŖ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
š Total PPG
Points / game
FK Crvena Zvezda
3.00
Vojvodina
2.14
IMT Novi Beograd
1.86
Radnicki 1923
1.67
ŽelezniÄar PanÄevo
1.60
Cukaricki
1.43
Mladost Lucani
1.43
Radnik Surdulica
1.33
FK Partizan
1.17
OFK Beograd
1.14
Novi Pazar
1.14
Macva
1.00
Radnicki NIS
0.83
Zemun
0.14
IMT Novi Beograd is 0.86 points better than Macva in terms of average points per game (1.86 vs 1.00).
āļø Attack
Goals scored / game
FK Crvena Zvezda
3.20
Vojvodina
2.14
ŽelezniÄar PanÄevo
1.80
FK Partizan
1.67
IMT Novi Beograd
1.43
Cukaricki
1.29
Radnicki 1923
1.17
OFK Beograd
1.14
Radnik Surdulica
1.00
Mladost Lucani
1.00
Novi Pazar
0.71
Macva
0.71
Radnicki NIS
0.50
Zemun
0.29
IMT Novi Beograd is 0.71 goals better than Macva in terms of goals scored per game (1.43 vs 0.71).
š”ļø Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FK Crvena Zvezda
0.20
IMT Novi Beograd
0.57
Vojvodina
0.86
Mladost Lucani
0.86
Radnicki 1923
1.00
ŽelezniÄar PanÄevo
1.00
Radnicki NIS
1.00
Novi Pazar
1.14
Radnik Surdulica
1.50
FK Partizan
1.67
OFK Beograd
1.71
Cukaricki
1.71
Macva
1.86
Zemun
2.00
IMT Novi Beograd is 1.29 goals better than Macva in terms of goals conceded per game (0.57 vs 1.86).
ā±ļø Possession
Avg possession %
FK Partizan
63%
FK Crvena Zvezda
61%
ŽelezniÄar PanÄevo
61%
Radnicki 1923
58%
Radnicki NIS
55%
OFK Beograd
54%
IMT Novi Beograd
53%
Vojvodina
52%
Novi Pazar
49%
Radnik Surdulica
48%
Cukaricki
41%
Mladost Lucani
38%
Macva
38%
Zemun
37%
IMT Novi Beograd is 14.4 percentage points better than Macva in terms of average possession (53% vs 38%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
IMT Novi Beograd or Draw
92.6%
Avg Implied -
67%
25%
7%
covers IMT Novi Beograd + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
IMT Novi Beograd or Macva
74.6%
Avg Implied -
67%
25%
7%
covers IMT Novi Beograd + Macva
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Macva
32.8%
Avg Implied -
67%
25%
7%
covers Draw + Macva
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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š„ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
IMT Novi Beograd over/under 0.5
Over
79.5%
Under
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IMT Novi Beograd over/under 1.5
Over
47.0%
Under
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IMT Novi Beograd over/under 2.5
Over
21.3%
Under
78.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IMT Novi Beograd over/under 3.5
Over
7.7%
Under
92.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Macva over/under 0.5
Over
30.9%
Under
69.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Macva over/under 1.5
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Macva over/under 2.5
Over
0.6%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Macva over/under 3.5
Over
0.1%
Under
99.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
āļø 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to IMT Novi Beograd, so a minus line means IMT Novi Beograd give that many goals of a start and Macva receive them. At -1, IMT Novi Beograd must win by two or more to land; a one-goal IMT Novi Beograd win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (IMT Novi Beograd)
IMT Novi Beograd -2
16.8%
Draw -2
21.5%
Macva +2
61.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (IMT Novi Beograd)
IMT Novi Beograd -1
38.3%
Draw -1
28.9%
Macva +1
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (IMT Novi Beograd)
IMT Novi Beograd +1
92.6%
Draw +1
6.1%
Macva -1
1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (IMT Novi Beograd)
IMT Novi Beograd +2
98.7%
Draw +2
1.2%
Macva -2
0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U
IMT Novi Beograd
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.43
0.31
0.31
0.21
0.57
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (22)
0.27
0.45
0.30
0.20
0.25
0.67
vs Weaker (5)
0.20
0.20
0.25
0.25
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Macva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Macva
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.40
0.86
0.21
0.31
0.56
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.33
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (25)
0.64
0.28
0.92
0.17
0.38
0.38
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (IMT Novi Beograd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
š„ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
IMT Novi Beograd over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IMT Novi Beograd over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IMT Novi Beograd over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Macva over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Macva over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Macva over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ā±ļø 10. Second Half Goals O/U
IMT Novi Beograd
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.43
0.88
0.38
0.93
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.33
0.50
0.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.82
0.41
0.80
0.30
0.83
0.50
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.60
1.25
0.75
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Macva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Macva
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.50
0.71
0.36
0.31
0.62
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
0.44
0.36
0.67
0.25
0.23
0.46
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (IMT Novi Beograd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
š„ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
IMT Novi Beograd over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IMT Novi Beograd over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IMT Novi Beograd over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Macva over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Macva over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Macva over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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š„ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS No
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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š° 14. Squad value
š° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FCZ (32)
€115m
FP (30)
€48m
VOJ (29)
€30m
OB (28)
€18m
ŽP (24)
€13m
INB (23)
€12m
RN (26)
€11m
NP (21)
€10m
CUK (23)
€10m
R1 (26)
€9m
RS (26)
€9m
ML (28)
€8m
ZEM (22)
€5m
MAC (19)
€4m
IMT Novi Beograd's squad is €8m more valuable than Macva's (€12m vs €4m).
āļø Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FCZ (13)
€62m
FP (15)
€24m
VOJ (15)
€13m
ŽP (9)
€7m
OB (10)
€6m
RN (11)
€4m
ML (10)
€4m
R1 (10)
€4m
CUK (8)
€4m
INB (8)
€4m
NP (9)
€3m
RS (10)
€3m
ZEM (9)
€2m
MAC (7)
€2m
IMT Novi Beograd's attack is €2m more valuable than Macva's (€4m vs €2m).
š§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FCZ (6)
€21m
FP (2)
€11m
VOJ (4)
€7m
OB (8)
€4m
INB (3)
€4m
R1 (6)
€3m
NP (3)
€2m
CUK (5)
€2m
RS (5)
€2m
ZEM (5)
€1m
ML (6)
€1m
ŽP (4)
€1m
RN (3)
€1m
MAC (3)
€1m
IMT Novi Beograd's midfield is €4m more valuable than Macva's (€4m vs €1m).
š”ļø Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FCZ (13)
€33m
FP (13)
€14m
VOJ (10)
€9m
OB (10)
€8m
ŽP (11)
€6m
RN (12)
€5m
NP (9)
€5m
RS (11)
€4m
INB (12)
€4m
CUK (10)
€3m
R1 (10)
€3m
ML (12)
€2m
MAC (9)
€2m
ZEM (8)
€1m
IMT Novi Beograd's defence is €3m more valuable than Macva's (€4m vs €2m).
Serbia: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Serbia: Super Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FK Crvena Zvezda
Vojvodina
Mladost Lucani
Radnicki 1923
Cukaricki
ŽelezniÄar PanÄevo
Radnik Surdulica
Novi Pazar
OFK Beograd
FK Partizan
Radnicki NIS
Zemun