Defensive solidity will shape this tight encounter, as both sides have conceded over a goal per game. The model favours a home win, with a 50 % chance for IMT Novi Beograd, a 31 % chance for a draw and a 19 % chance for Mladost Lucani to triumph. The expected total is 2.0 goals, and the most likely scoreline is 1-0 for the home side, with a 16.1 % probability. IMT’s home form shows they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded against weaker opposition, while Mladost’s away record is 0.88 scored and 2.5 conceded against stronger teams. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.9 %), Under 6.5 (99.5 %), Away under 3.5 goals (99.4 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.9 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.2 %), Under 5.5 (98.2 % with a 6 % edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.5 % with a 7 % edge) and Away under 2.5 goals (96.5 % with a 7 % edge). The home side is coming off a defeat, while the visitors are on a two-game winning run.
Results analysis
The win extends IMT Novi Beograd’s recent run, as they finished the previous match 2-0 over Mladost Lucani. The model’s favourite was a home win, with a 49% probability, and it proved correct as the final score was 2-0, confirming the home side’s triumph. The most likely total of 2 goals materialised, with the 1-0 and 0-0 possibilities close behind. Every suggested pick settled in favour of the model: Under 7.5 hit at 99.9%, Under 6.5 at 99.5%, Away under 3.5 goals at 99.3%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.7%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.2%, Under 5.5 at 98.2%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.4%, and Away under 2.5 goals at 96.3%. All selections were accurate, underscoring the model’s reliability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
IMT Novi Beograd win✓ Hit
49.2%
Avg Implied 56.3% · @ 1.61
Edge
-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.67
Superbet
1.64
Unibet
1.64
Dafabet
1.63
Bet365
1.62
Draw✗ Miss
31.3%
Avg Implied 25.9% · @ 3.50
Edge
+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.70
Dafabet
3.65
Superbet
3.65
Pinnacle
3.62
Mladost Lucani win✗ Miss
19.5%
Avg Implied 17.8% · @ 5.08
Edge
+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.33
Pinnacle
5.31
Marathonbet
5.25
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
IMT Novi Beograd
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.90
1.13
0.73
1.27
1.07
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
1.17
0.87
1.10
0.50
1.23
1.15
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
1.00
1.33
1.33
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Mladost Lucani) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mladost Lucani
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.27
1.00
0.93
0.94
1.56
vs Stronger (13)
1.08
2.08
1.40
1.40
0.88
2.50
vs Similar (17)
0.88
0.65
0.78
0.67
1.00
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (IMT Novi Beograd) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
61.4%
@ 1.35-6.6%
Under 1.5
38.6%
@ 2.86+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Pinnacle
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Under
Betfair
3.10
Bet365
3.00
Pinnacle
2.95
10Bet
2.90
Marathonbet
2.88
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
33.1%
@ 2.09-10.9%
Under 2.5
66.9%
@ 1.64+10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.15
Betfair
2.15
10Bet
2.15
Pinnacle
2.13
Superbet
2.12
Under
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Betfair
1.67
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.66
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
14.8%
@ 3.71-9.8%
Under 3.5
85.2%
@ 1.21+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.10
10Bet
3.95
1xBet
3.80
Superbet
3.80
Marathonbet
3.80
Under
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.24
Betfair
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
38.8%
@ 2.02-6.4%
No
61.2%
@ 1.67+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
2.10
Superbet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Betano
2.07
Marathonbet
2.05
No
Unibet
1.73
William Hil
1.73
Betfair
1.73
1xBet
1.67
Betano
1.67
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
15.9%@ 5.33+7.6%
0-0
14.4%@ 7.66+8.6%
1-1
13.7%@ 6.70+7.1%
2-0 ✓
11.2%@ 6.49+4.4%
0-1
8.3%@ 11.07+4.3%
2-1
8.1%@ 7.86+2.5%
3-0
4.9%@ 11.67+1.1%
1-2
4.5%@ 15.79+1.7%
IMT Novi Beograd goals ↓
Mladost Lucani goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
8.3%
3.5%
0.8%
0.2%
1
16%
14%
4.5%
1.1%
0.2%
2
11%
8.1%
2.9%
0.7%
0.1%
3
4.9%
3.5%
1.3%
0.3%
0.1%
4
1.6%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = IMT Novi Beograd goals (down), columns = Mladost Lucani goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FK Crvena Zvezda
3.00
Vojvodina
2.14
IMT Novi Beograd
1.86
Radnicki 1923
1.67
Železničar Pančevo
1.60
Cukaricki
1.43
Mladost Lucani
1.43
Radnik Surdulica
1.33
FK Partizan
1.17
OFK Beograd
1.14
Novi Pazar
1.14
Macva
1.00
Radnicki NIS
0.83
Zemun
0.14
IMT Novi Beograd is 0.43 points better than Mladost Lucani in terms of average points per game (1.86 vs 1.43).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FK Crvena Zvezda
3.20
Vojvodina
2.14
Železničar Pančevo
1.80
FK Partizan
1.67
IMT Novi Beograd
1.43
Cukaricki
1.29
Radnicki 1923
1.17
OFK Beograd
1.14
Radnik Surdulica
1.00
Mladost Lucani
1.00
Macva
0.71
Novi Pazar
0.71
Radnicki NIS
0.50
Zemun
0.29
IMT Novi Beograd is 0.43 goals better than Mladost Lucani in terms of goals scored per game (1.43 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FK Crvena Zvezda
0.20
IMT Novi Beograd
0.57
Vojvodina
0.86
Mladost Lucani
0.86
Radnicki 1923
1.00
Železničar Pančevo
1.00
Radnicki NIS
1.00
Novi Pazar
1.14
Radnik Surdulica
1.50
FK Partizan
1.67
OFK Beograd
1.71
Cukaricki
1.71
Macva
1.86
Zemun
2.00
IMT Novi Beograd is 0.29 goals better than Mladost Lucani in terms of goals conceded per game (0.57 vs 0.86).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FK Partizan
63%
FK Crvena Zvezda
61%
Železničar Pančevo
61%
Radnicki 1923
58%
Radnicki NIS
55%
OFK Beograd
54%
IMT Novi Beograd
53%
Vojvodina
52%
Novi Pazar
49%
Radnik Surdulica
48%
Cukaricki
41%
Mladost Lucani
38%
Macva
38%
Zemun
37%
IMT Novi Beograd is 14.3 percentage points better than Mladost Lucani in terms of average possession (53% vs 38%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
IMT Novi Beograd
For 5.0 · Against 4.1 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.6 · Against 13.3 · Total 29.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Mladost Lucani
For 3.1 · Against 5.6 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 12.9 · Total 25.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
IMT Novi Beograd
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.5
8.3
8.7
4.5
4.1
5.0
29.8
28.6
31.0
vs Stronger (5)
11.0
12.5
10.0
3.8
3.5
4.0
28.0
25.0
30.0
vs Similar (38)
8.2
7.8
8.5
4.4
4.0
4.9
30.2
29.3
31.1
vs Weaker (7)
8.7
8.8
8.7
5.6
4.8
6.7
29.1
27.2
31.7
% over line
26%
28%
24%
62%
56%
68%
96%
96%
96%
% under line
74%
72%
76%
38%
44%
32%
4%
4%
4%
This opponent (Mladost Lucani) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mladost Lucani
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.3
9.4
3.9
3.6
4.2
25.5
26.4
24.7
vs Stronger (26)
9.8
10.4
9.4
3.6
3.4
3.7
24.8
26.1
23.9
vs Similar (24)
8.8
8.2
9.4
4.3
3.8
4.8
26.2
26.8
25.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
43%
43%
42%
60%
54%
65%
76%
74%
77%
% under line
57%
57%
58%
40%
46%
35%
24%
26%
23%
This opponent (IMT Novi Beograd) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
FK Crvena Zvezda
9.8
Mladost Lucani
9.5
Vojvodina
9.4
FK Partizan
9.2
Radnicki 1923
9.1
Radnik Surdulica
9.0
Cukaricki
9.0
Novi Pazar
9.0
OFK Beograd
8.8
IMT Novi Beograd
8.5
Zemun
8.5
Železničar Pančevo
8.5
Radnicki NIS
8.4
Macva
8.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Macva
5.9
Zemun
5.8
Radnicki 1923
5.6
Radnik Surdulica
5.3
Radnicki NIS
5.2
OFK Beograd
4.9
Cukaricki
4.8
Vojvodina
4.8
FK Partizan
4.7
Novi Pazar
4.7
IMT Novi Beograd
4.5
Železničar Pančevo
4.5
Mladost Lucani
4.2
FK Crvena Zvezda
3.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Radnicki 1923
30.4
Radnik Surdulica
30.4
IMT Novi Beograd
29.8
Radnicki NIS
29.3
OFK Beograd
29.1
Macva
28.9
Cukaricki
28.6
Železničar Pančevo
27.8
Vojvodina
26.9
Novi Pazar
26.7
Zemun
26.5
FK Partizan
25.9
Mladost Lucani
25.6
FK Crvena Zvezda
23.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
39.9%
@ 1.84-10.2%
Under 9.5
60.1%
@ 1.85+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.85
Betano
1.85
Bet365
1.83
10Bet
1.83
Superbet
1.82
Under
Superbet
1.88
1xBet
1.85
Betano
1.85
10Bet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
66.4%
Under 3.5
33.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
84.2%
Under 21.5
15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
IMT Novi Beograd or Draw✓ Hit
80.5%
Avg Implied 81.7% · @ 1.12
Edge
-1.2%
49%
31%
20%
covers IMT Novi Beograd + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.16
William Hil
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.14
IMT Novi Beograd or Mladost Lucani✓ Hit
68.7%
Avg Implied 74.9% · @ 1.23
Edge
-6.2%
49%
31%
20%
covers IMT Novi Beograd + Mladost Lucani
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.26
Betfair
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Draw or Mladost Lucani✗ Miss
50.8%
Avg Implied 43.4% · @ 2.11
Edge
+7.4%
49%
31%
20%
covers Draw + Mladost Lucani
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.25
Betano
2.25
Bet365
2.20
Marathonbet
2.14
1xBet
2.14
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
IMT Novi Beograd over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
72.9%
@ 1.18-4.9%
Under
27.1%
@ 4.11+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Under
1xBet
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.20
Betano
4.20
IMT Novi Beograd over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
37.5%
@ 1.87-11.4%
Under
62.5%
@ 1.79+11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Superbet
1.92
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.90
Under
1xBet
1.84
Betano
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.83
Bet365
1.80
IMT Novi Beograd over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.4%
@ 3.65-10.6%
Under
85.6%
@ 1.22+10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.95
Superbet
3.80
Marathonbet
3.78
Bet365
3.75
1xBet
3.70
Under
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
IMT Novi Beograd over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.3%
@ 8.00-7.3%
Under
95.7%
@ 1.05+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.60
Superbet
8.10
Bet365
8.00
Betano
7.30
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Mladost Lucani over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
51.6%
@ 1.70-2.2%
Under
48.4%
@ 1.97+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.76
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Marathonbet
1.71
Under
10Bet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.02
Unibet
2.00
Betano
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Mladost Lucani over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
16.5%
@ 4.36-4.5%
Under
83.5%
@ 1.16+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.85
Superbet
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Betano
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Under
1xBet
1.18
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Mladost Lucani over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
3.7%
@ 11.42-4.5%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.02+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.25
Bet365
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Mladost Lucani over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.7%
@ 33.00-99.3%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
45.00
Bet365
21.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to IMT Novi Beograd, so a minus line means IMT Novi Beograd give that many goals of a start and Mladost Lucani receive them. At -1, IMT Novi Beograd must win by two or more to land; a one-goal IMT Novi Beograd win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (IMT Novi Beograd)Actual: Draw
IMT Novi Beograd -2
8.6%
@ 5.80-6.8%
Draw -2
15.1%
@ 4.66-4.0%
Mladost Lucani +2
76.2%
@ 1.36+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
6.25
Marathonbet
5.85
Superbet
5.60
Bet365
5.50
Draw
Marathonbet
4.85
Bet365
4.75
Superbet
4.55
10Bet
4.50
Away
Superbet
1.39
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
10Bet
1.35
Handicap -1 (IMT Novi Beograd)Actual: IMT Novi Beograd
IMT Novi Beograd -1
23.8%
@ 2.78-7.8%
Draw -1
25.4%
@ 3.25-1.6%
Mladost Lucani +1
50.8%
@ 2.12+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
2.95
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.77
Bet365
2.75
Marathonbet
2.74
Draw
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.30
Marathonbet
3.28
10Bet
3.25
Betfair
3.25
Away
Betfair
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Superbet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.14
10Bet
2.10
Handicap +1 (IMT Novi Beograd)Actual: IMT Novi Beograd
IMT Novi Beograd +1
80.5%
@ 1.12+4.6%
Draw +1
13.6%
@ 5.50-1.9%
Mladost Lucani -1
6.0%
@ 9.75-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.10
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
4.50
Away
Bet365
12.00
Marathonbet
7.50
Handicap +2 (IMT Novi Beograd)Actual: IMT Novi Beograd
IMT Novi Beograd +2
94.0%
@ 1.03+2.4%
Draw +2
4.7%
@ 17.00-0.9%
Mladost Lucani -2
1.3%
@ 34.00-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.03
Draw
Bet365
17.00
Away
Bet365
34.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
IMT Novi Beograd
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.43
0.27
0.33
0.27
0.53
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (23)
0.30
0.43
0.30
0.20
0.31
0.62
vs Weaker (4)
0.00
0.25
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Mladost Lucani) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mladost Lucani
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.43
0.57
0.36
0.31
0.50
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
0.62
0.60
0.20
0.38
0.88
vs Similar (17)
0.41
0.29
0.56
0.44
0.25
0.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (IMT Novi Beograd) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
65.6%
@ 1.42+1.1%
Under 0.5
34.4%
@ 2.58-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Under
Betfair
2.75
William Hil
2.70
10Bet
2.65
Pinnacle
2.64
Bet365
2.62
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
27.4%
@ 3.01-3.1%
Under 1.5
72.6%
@ 1.32+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Betano
3.15
1xBet
3.08
Marathonbet
3.08
Under
William Hil
1.35
10Bet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
Betano
1.33
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
9.2%
@ 7.39-3.2%
Under 2.5
90.8%
@ 1.05+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
8.50
Marathonbet
8.30
1xBet
8.30
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
7.50
Under
Betano
1.07
William Hil
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
IMT Novi Beograd over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
49.2%
@ 1.78-2.9%
Under
50.8%
@ 1.93+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.83
Superbet
1.78
1xBet
1.77
10Bet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.76
Under
Pinnacle
2.00
10Bet
1.95
1xBet
1.94
Superbet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.91
IMT Novi Beograd over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.4%
@ 4.86-5.6%
Under
86.6%
@ 1.14+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.20
Superbet
4.85
1xBet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Betano
4.70
Under
Superbet
1.15
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
IMT Novi Beograd over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.6%
@ 12.58-4.9%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.02+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Mladost Lucani over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
33.0%
@ 3.05+2.7%
Under
67.0%
@ 1.32-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.10
Marathonbet
3.08
Superbet
3.05
1xBet
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Under
1xBet
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Betano
1.32
Marathonbet
1.30
Mladost Lucani over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.4%
@ 11.08-2.0%
Under
93.6%
@ 1.02+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
10Bet
11.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
Mladost Lucani over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.3%
@ 60.00-98.7%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
60.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
IMT Novi Beograd
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.47
0.87
0.40
1.00
0.53
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.33
0.50
0.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.87
0.43
0.80
0.30
0.92
0.54
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.75
1.33
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Mladost Lucani) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mladost Lucani
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.83
0.43
0.57
0.62
1.06
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
1.46
0.80
1.20
0.50
1.62
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.35
0.22
0.22
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (IMT Novi Beograd) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
75.6%
@ 1.27+3.4%
Under 0.5
24.4%
@ 3.31-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Under
Bet365
3.50
Marathonbet
3.34
1xBet
3.34
Betano
3.30
10Bet
3.30
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
38.5%
@ 2.34-1.1%
Under 1.5
61.5%
@ 1.53+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.40
Bet365
2.38
10Bet
2.35
Superbet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.31
Under
Betano
1.57
Marathonbet
1.54
1xBet
1.54
10Bet
1.53
Superbet
1.53
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.0%
@ 5.23-3.7%
Under 2.5
86.0%
@ 1.12+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.30
1xBet
5.30
Superbet
5.20
Under
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Marathonbet
1.09
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
IMT Novi Beograd over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
53.7%
@ 1.57-5.2%
Under
46.3%
@ 2.25+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.60
Superbet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.57
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.54
Under
Betano
2.32
1xBet
2.32
Superbet
2.22
10Bet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.19
IMT Novi Beograd over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
19.6%
@ 3.64-5.7%
Under
80.4%
@ 1.24+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.90
Superbet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.65
1xBet
3.50
Betano
3.40
Under
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.24
Superbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
IMT Novi Beograd over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.4%
@ 9.38-5.5%
Under
95.6%
@ 1.03+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
10.00
Superbet
10.00
1xBet
10.00
Betano
7.50
Under
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Mladost Lucani over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
42.9%
@ 2.50+6.0%
Under
57.1%
@ 1.46-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.54
Superbet
2.52
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.50
10Bet
2.45
Under
10Bet
1.48
1xBet
1.47
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.43
Mladost Lucani over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
10.0%
@ 9.02-0.3%
Under
90.0%
@ 1.04+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.50
1xBet
9.60
Superbet
9.10
10Bet
8.50
Betano
7.40
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Mladost Lucani over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 39.00-98.2%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
39.00
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
98.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Betfair
1.01
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
96.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.7%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
-
+7.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.6%
1.03
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
94.5%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Superbet
1.06
BetVictor
1.03
+7.5%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
94.0%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
-
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.8%
1.05
Betano
1.07
William Hil
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
90.0%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.6%
1.14
Superbet
1.15
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
86.0%
1.12
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Marathonbet
1.09
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
85.6%
1.22
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
+10.6%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
85.2%
1.21
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.24
Betfair
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
+9.8%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
83.5%
1.16
1xBet
1.18
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
81.3%
1.32
Superbet
1.37
1xBet
1.27
-
-
-
+11.8%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
80.5%
1.12
Betano
1.16
William Hil
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.14
-1.2%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
80.5%
1.12
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.10
-
-
-
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.4%
1.24
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.24
Superbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
76.2%
1.36
Superbet
1.39
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
10Bet
1.35
-
+10.7%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.6%
1.27
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
72.9%
1.18
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
-4.9%
✓ Hit
Under 1.5 HT goals
72.6%
1.32
William Hil
1.35
10Bet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
Betano
1.33
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
71.8%
1.53
Superbet
1.58
1xBet
1.51
Betano
1.50
-
-
+11.4%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
IMT Novi Beograd
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Oriyomi Lebi33%
Charly Keita29%
Dušan Zagar17%
Tadija Cojić17%
Stefan Šapić14%
Iván Martos14%
Nikola Glišić14%
Josué Tiendrebeogo14%
Vasilije Novičić14%
Luka Luković0%
Julián Delmás0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Vladimir Radočaj0%
Ismael Casas0%
Moussa Sissako0%
Đorđe Radivojević0%
Rafael Batista da Silva Junior0%
Aleksa Mitić0%
Daniel Akrofi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Oriyomi Lebi67%
Iván Martos29%
Josué Tiendrebeogo29%
Vladimir Radočaj17%
Dušan Zagar17%
Luka Luković14%
Stefan Šapić14%
Charly Keita14%
Nikola Glišić14%
Vasilije Novičić14%
Julián Delmás0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Ismael Casas0%
Moussa Sissako0%
Đorđe Radivojević0%
Rafael Batista da Silva Junior0%
Aleksa Mitić0%
Daniel Akrofi0%
Tadija Cojić0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tadija Cojić33%
Vasilije Novičić29%
Nikola Glišić14%
Luka Luković0%
Stefan Šapić0%
Iván Martos0%
Julián Delmás0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Vladimir Radočaj0%
Ismael Casas0%
Moussa Sissako0%
Charly Keita0%
Josué Tiendrebeogo0%
Oriyomi Lebi0%
Dušan Zagar0%
Đorđe Radivojević0%
Rafael Batista da Silva Junior0%
Aleksa Mitić0%
Daniel Akrofi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Dušan Zagar50%
Vladimir Radočaj17%
Luka Luković14%
Charly Keita14%
Nikola Glišić14%
Vasilije Novičić14%
Stefan Šapić0%
Iván Martos0%
Julián Delmás0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Ismael Casas0%
Moussa Sissako0%
Josué Tiendrebeogo0%
Oriyomi Lebi0%
Đorđe Radivojević0%
Rafael Batista da Silva Junior0%
Aleksa Mitić0%
Daniel Akrofi0%
Tadija Cojić0%
Mladost Lucani
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mihailo Todosijević43%
Nikola Ćirković29%
Vasil Tašovski29%
Dušan Jovančić0%
Milan Joksimović0%
Miloš Cvetković0%
Žarko Udovičić0%
Aleksandar Varjačić0%
Nikola Andrić0%
Petar Bojić0%
John Mary0%
Saša Stamenković0%
Veljko Kijevčanin0%
Filip Žunić0%
Vukašin Marković0%
Ognjen Krsmanović0%
Jovan Ćirić0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Veljko Kijevčanin43%
Dušan Jovančić29%
Aleksandar Varjačić29%
Žarko Udovičić20%
Vukašin Marković20%
Ognjen Krsmanović20%
Milan Joksimović14%
Nikola Andrić14%
John Mary14%
Vasil Tašovski14%
Miloš Cvetković0%
Petar Bojić0%
Nikola Ćirković0%
Saša Stamenković0%
Filip Žunić0%
Mihailo Todosijević0%
Jovan Ćirić0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Aleksandar Varjačić43%
Veljko Kijevčanin29%
Jovan Ćirić14%
Dušan Jovančić0%
Milan Joksimović0%
Miloš Cvetković0%
Žarko Udovičić0%
Nikola Andrić0%
Petar Bojić0%
Nikola Ćirković0%
John Mary0%
Saša Stamenković0%
Filip Žunić0%
Vukašin Marković0%
Mihailo Todosijević0%
Ognjen Krsmanović0%
Vasil Tašovski0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
John Mary14%
Vasil Tašovski14%
Dušan Jovančić0%
Milan Joksimović0%
Miloš Cvetković0%
Žarko Udovičić0%
Aleksandar Varjačić0%
Nikola Andrić0%
Petar Bojić0%
Nikola Ćirković0%
Saša Stamenković0%
Veljko Kijevčanin0%
Filip Žunić0%
Vukašin Marković0%
Mihailo Todosijević0%
Ognjen Krsmanović0%
Jovan Ćirić0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FCZ (32)
€115m
FP (30)
€48m
VOJ (29)
€30m
OB (28)
€18m
ŽP (24)
€13m
INB (23)
€12m
RN (26)
€11m
NP (21)
€10m
CUK (23)
€10m
R1 (26)
€9m
RS (26)
€9m
ML (28)
€8m
ZEM (22)
€5m
MAC (19)
€4m
IMT Novi Beograd's squad is €5m more valuable than Mladost Lucani's (€12m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FCZ (13)
€62m
FP (15)
€24m
VOJ (15)
€13m
ŽP (9)
€7m
OB (10)
€6m
RN (11)
€4m
ML (10)
€4m
R1 (10)
€4m
CUK (8)
€4m
INB (8)
€4m
NP (9)
€3m
RS (10)
€3m
ZEM (9)
€2m
MAC (7)
€2m
IMT Novi Beograd and Mladost Lucani have a similar attack value (both €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FCZ (6)
€21m
FP (2)
€11m
VOJ (4)
€7m
OB (8)
€4m
INB (3)
€4m
R1 (6)
€3m
NP (3)
€2m
CUK (5)
€2m
RS (5)
€2m
ZEM (5)
€1m
ML (6)
€1m
ŽP (4)
€1m
RN (3)
€1m
MAC (3)
€1m
IMT Novi Beograd's midfield is €3m more valuable than Mladost Lucani's (€4m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FCZ (13)
€33m
FP (13)
€14m
VOJ (10)
€9m
OB (10)
€8m
ŽP (11)
€6m
RN (12)
€5m
NP (9)
€5m
RS (11)
€4m
INB (12)
€4m
CUK (10)
€3m
R1 (10)
€3m
ML (12)
€2m
MAC (9)
€2m
ZEM (8)
€1m
IMT Novi Beograd's defence is €2m more valuable than Mladost Lucani's (€4m vs €2m).
Serbia: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Serbia: Super Liga stats & trends →
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FK Crvena Zvezda
Vojvodina
Radnicki 1923
Cukaricki
Železničar Pančevo
Radnik Surdulica
Novi Pazar
OFK Beograd
FK Partizan
Macva
Radnicki NIS
Zemun