IMT Novi Beograd is expected to edge out Radnicki NIS in a closely contested match, with a recent-form note suggesting the home side is on a 3-game winning run. The model's pick is a home win, which holds a 47% probability, while a draw is 30% likely and an away win 23% likely. The expected total number of goals is 2.3, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely score is a 1-1 draw, occurring 13.9% of the time. At home, IMT Novi Beograd scores an average of 1.14 goals and concedes 0.57, while Radnicki NIS scores 0.86 goals and concedes 1.43 when playing away against a stronger opponent. The model suggests taking Over 21.5 fouls, with a 91.9% probability, and Under 3.5 goals, with an 80.9% probability. Home win percentages are at 47%, draw at 30%, and away win at 23%.
Results analysis
The match between IMT Novi Beograd and Radnicki NIS ended in a thrilling 0-0 draw, extending IMT Novi Beograd's undefeated run at home. This result was a major upset, as the pre-match favourite, IMT Novi Beograd, failed to secure a win. The model's selection, a home win, was incorrect, with a pre-match probability of 47%.
In contrast, the model's suggested picks performed well, with "Over 21.5 fouls" hitting at 89.1% and "Under 3.5" also hitting at 80.9%. The most likely total goals was 2, with a probability of 28%, but the actual result fell short of this prediction.
šÆ 1. Model Analysis
IMT Novi Beograd winā Miss
47.2%
Avg Implied 41.8% · @ 2.16
Edge
+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
2.20
Betano
2.20
William Hil
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Betfair
2.20
Drawā Hit
30.1%
Avg Implied 30.0% · @ 3.01
Edge
+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.30
Betfair
3.25
Dafabet
3.10
10Bet
3.05
1xBet
3.00
Radnicki NIS winā Miss
22.7%
Avg Implied 28.2% · @ 3.20
Edge
-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.32
Dafabet
3.30
1xBet
3.30
Unibet
3.25
Betfair
3.25
ā½ 2. Goal Analysis
IMT Novi Beograd
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.07
1.20
0.80
1.27
1.33
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
2.25
1.00
1.00
1.50
3.50
vs Similar (24)
1.21
0.96
1.17
0.83
1.25
1.08
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnicki NIS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radnicki NIS
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.23
1.27
1.13
1.07
1.33
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
1.11
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.20
vs Similar (21)
1.33
1.29
1.55
1.18
1.10
1.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (IMT Novi Beograd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
67.0%
@ 1.37+0.4%
Under 1.5
33.0%
@ 2.74-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Betano
1.40
888Sport
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Marathonbet
2.83
1xBet
2.83
888Sport
2.80
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
39.1%
@ 2.16-3.5%
Under 2.5
60.9%
@ 1.60+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.30
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.22
Pinnacle
2.21
10Bet
2.20
Under
1xBet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.66
Pinnacle
1.63
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.1%
@ 3.80-4.9%
Under 3.5
80.9%
@ 1.20+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Bet365
4.00
888Sport
4.00
Unibet
3.80
Under
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
44.9%
@ 1.88-3.8%
No
55.1%
@ 1.78+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
2.00
Bet365
2.00
William Hil
1.91
888Sport
1.91
Betano
1.90
No
1xBet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.83
Betano
1.82
William Hil
1.80
888Sport
1.80
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%@ 5.76+6.3%
1-0
13.2%@ 6.34+6.2%
0-0 ā
11.8%@ 6.80+5.3%
2-0
10.0%@ 9.59+5.3%
2-1
8.7%@ 8.68+3.6%
0-1
8.0%@ 7.93+2.4%
1-2
5.6%@ 11.04+1.5%
3-0
4.6%@ 19.89+2.3%
IMT Novi Beograd goals ↓
Radnicki NIS goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
8.0%
4.0%
1.2%
0.3%
1
13%
14%
5.6%
1.6%
0.4%
2
10.0%
8.7%
3.8%
1.1%
0.2%
3
4.6%
4.0%
1.7%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.6%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = IMT Novi Beograd goals (down), columns = Radnicki NIS goals (across).
šŖ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
š Total PPG
Points / game
FK Crvena Zvezda
3.00
Vojvodina
2.14
Radnicki 1923
1.67
IMT Novi Beograd
1.67
Mladost Lucani
1.67
ŽelezniÄar PanÄevo
1.60
Cukaricki
1.43
OFK Beograd
1.33
Radnik Surdulica
1.33
Novi Pazar
1.14
Macva
1.00
Radnicki NIS
0.83
FK Partizan
0.80
Zemun
0.14
IMT Novi Beograd is 0.83 points better than Radnicki NIS in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 0.83).
āļø Attack
Goals scored / game
FK Crvena Zvezda
3.20
Vojvodina
2.14
ŽelezniÄar PanÄevo
1.80
FK Partizan
1.40
IMT Novi Beograd
1.33
Cukaricki
1.29
OFK Beograd
1.17
Radnicki 1923
1.17
Mladost Lucani
1.17
Radnik Surdulica
1.00
Novi Pazar
0.71
Macva
0.71
Radnicki NIS
0.50
Zemun
0.29
IMT Novi Beograd is 0.83 goals better than Radnicki NIS in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 0.50).
š”ļø Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FK Crvena Zvezda
0.20
IMT Novi Beograd
0.67
Mladost Lucani
0.67
Vojvodina
0.86
Radnicki 1923
1.00
ŽelezniÄar PanÄevo
1.00
Radnicki NIS
1.00
Novi Pazar
1.14
OFK Beograd
1.50
Radnik Surdulica
1.50
Cukaricki
1.71
FK Partizan
1.80
Macva
1.86
Zemun
2.00
IMT Novi Beograd is 0.33 goals better than Radnicki NIS in terms of goals conceded per game (0.67 vs 1.00).
ā±ļø Possession
Avg possession %
FK Partizan
63%
FK Crvena Zvezda
61%
ŽelezniÄar PanÄevo
61%
Radnicki 1923
58%
OFK Beograd
57%
Radnicki NIS
55%
Vojvodina
52%
IMT Novi Beograd
52%
Novi Pazar
49%
Radnik Surdulica
48%
Cukaricki
41%
Macva
38%
Mladost Lucani
38%
Zemun
37%
IMT Novi Beograd is 3.3 percentage points worse than Radnicki NIS in terms of average possession (52% vs 55%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
IMT Novi Beograd or Drawā Hit
77.3%
Avg Implied -
47%
30%
23%
covers IMT Novi Beograd + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
IMT Novi Beograd or Radnicki NISā Miss
69.9%
Avg Implied -
47%
30%
23%
covers IMT Novi Beograd + Radnicki NIS
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Radnicki NISā Hit
52.8%
Avg Implied -
47%
30%
23%
covers Draw + Radnicki NIS
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
š„ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
āļø 7. Handicap
ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U
IMT Novi Beograd
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.53
0.33
0.40
0.27
0.67
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.25
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (24)
0.33
0.46
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.58
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnicki NIS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radnicki NIS
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.57
0.53
0.47
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (9)
0.11
0.44
0.00
0.25
0.20
0.60
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.62
0.73
0.55
0.40
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (IMT Novi Beograd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
IMT Novi Beograd over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IMT Novi Beograd over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IMT Novi Beograd over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnicki NIS over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnicki NIS over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnicki NIS over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ā±ļø 10. Second Half Goals O/U
IMT Novi Beograd
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.53
0.87
0.40
1.00
0.67
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.50
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.88
0.50
0.83
0.50
0.92
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnicki NIS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radnicki NIS
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
0.73
0.67
0.73
0.67
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
0.67
0.50
0.75
0.80
0.60
vs Similar (21)
0.76
0.67
0.82
0.64
0.70
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (IMT Novi Beograd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
IMT Novi Beograd over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IMT Novi Beograd over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IMT Novi Beograd over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnicki NIS over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnicki NIS over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnicki NIS over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Under 11.5 corners
84.8%
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
-
-
-
+11.1%
ā Hit
Over 2.5 cards
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Miss
Under 3.5
80.9%
1.20
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
+4.9%
ā Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Home or Draw
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Under 10.5 corners
76.2%
1.39
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.38
-
-
+10.6%
ā Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
š° 14. Squad value
š° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FCZ (32)
€115m
FP (30)
€48m
VOJ (29)
€30m
OB (28)
€18m
ŽP (24)
€13m
INB (23)
€12m
RN (26)
€11m
NP (21)
€10m
CUK (23)
€10m
R1 (26)
€9m
RS (26)
€9m
ML (28)
€8m
ZEM (22)
€5m
MAC (19)
€4m
IMT Novi Beograd's squad is €1m more valuable than Radnicki NIS's (€12m vs €11m).
āļø Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FCZ (13)
€62m
FP (15)
€24m
VOJ (15)
€13m
ŽP (9)
€7m
OB (10)
€6m
RN (11)
€4m
ML (10)
€4m
R1 (10)
€4m
CUK (8)
€4m
INB (8)
€4m
NP (9)
€3m
RS (10)
€3m
ZEM (9)
€2m
MAC (7)
€2m
IMT Novi Beograd and Radnicki NIS have a similar attack value (both €4m).
š§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FCZ (6)
€21m
FP (2)
€11m
VOJ (4)
€7m
OB (8)
€4m
INB (3)
€4m
R1 (6)
€3m
NP (3)
€2m
CUK (5)
€2m
RS (5)
€2m
ZEM (5)
€1m
ML (6)
€1m
ŽP (4)
€1m
RN (3)
€1m
MAC (3)
€1m
IMT Novi Beograd's midfield is €3m more valuable than Radnicki NIS's (€4m vs €1m).
š”ļø Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FCZ (13)
€33m
FP (13)
€14m
VOJ (10)
€9m
OB (10)
€8m
ŽP (11)
€6m
RN (12)
€5m
NP (9)
€5m
RS (11)
€4m
INB (12)
€4m
CUK (10)
€3m
R1 (10)
€3m
ML (12)
€2m
MAC (9)
€2m
ZEM (8)
€1m
IMT Novi Beograd's defence is €1m less valuable than Radnicki NIS's (€4m vs €5m).
Serbia: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Serbia: Super Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FK Crvena Zvezda
Vojvodina
Mladost Lucani
Radnicki 1923
Cukaricki
ŽelezniÄar PanÄevo
OFK Beograd
Radnik Surdulica
Novi Pazar
Macva
FK Partizan
Zemun