Defensive solidity will likely dictate the outcome, as the home side has only conceded 0.75 goals per game while the visitors have a higher average of 1.38. The model favours a home win, with a 50% chance of victory, a 30% chance of a draw, and a 21% chance of an away win. The expected total of 2.2 goals points to a tight match, and the most probable scoreline is 1-0, with a 14% probability. Home form shows a modest 1.08 goals scored per match, whereas the away side averages 1.0, suggesting a low-scoring affair. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.0%), Under 5.5 (97.4%), Over 19.5 fouls (96.5%), Away under 2.5 goals (95.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.6%), and Home +2 handicap (93.2%). Each selection carries its own probability, and the modelās single most likely outcome remains the home win.
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šÆ 1. Model Analysis
IMT Novi Beograd win
51.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Radnik Surdulica win
19.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ā½ 2. Goal Analysis
IMT Novi Beograd
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.87
1.19
0.69
1.14
1.07
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
1.09
0.86
1.10
0.50
1.08
1.17
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.80
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnik Surdulica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radnik Surdulica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.20
1.33
1.07
0.87
1.33
vs Stronger (13)
1.00
1.46
1.33
1.67
0.71
1.29
vs Similar (17)
1.18
1.00
1.33
0.67
1.00
1.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (IMT Novi Beograd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
66.2%
Under 1.5
33.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
38.3%
Under 2.5
61.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
18.5%
Under 3.5
81.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
42.5%
No
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.4%
1-1
13.4%
0-0
12.1%
2-0
11.3%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
7.2%
3-0
5.4%
1-2
4.7%
IMT Novi Beograd goals ↓
Radnik Surdulica goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
7.2%
3.3%
0.9%
0.2%
1
14%
13%
4.7%
1.2%
0.2%
2
11%
8.8%
3.4%
0.9%
0.2%
3
5.4%
4.2%
1.6%
0.4%
0.1%
4
2.0%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = IMT Novi Beograd goals (down), columns = Radnik Surdulica goals (across).
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šŖ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
š Total PPG
Points / game
FK Crvena Zvezda
3.00
Vojvodina
2.14
IMT Novi Beograd
1.86
Radnicki 1923
1.67
ŽelezniÄar PanÄevo
1.60
Cukaricki
1.43
Mladost Lucani
1.43
Radnik Surdulica
1.33
FK Partizan
1.17
OFK Beograd
1.14
Novi Pazar
1.14
Macva
1.00
Radnicki NIS
0.83
Zemun
0.14
IMT Novi Beograd is 0.52 points better than Radnik Surdulica in terms of average points per game (1.86 vs 1.33).
āļø Attack
Goals scored / game
FK Crvena Zvezda
3.20
Vojvodina
2.14
ŽelezniÄar PanÄevo
1.80
FK Partizan
1.67
IMT Novi Beograd
1.43
Cukaricki
1.29
Radnicki 1923
1.17
OFK Beograd
1.14
Radnik Surdulica
1.00
Mladost Lucani
1.00
Macva
0.71
Novi Pazar
0.71
Radnicki NIS
0.50
Zemun
0.29
IMT Novi Beograd is 0.43 goals better than Radnik Surdulica in terms of goals scored per game (1.43 vs 1.00).
š”ļø Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FK Crvena Zvezda
0.20
IMT Novi Beograd
0.57
Vojvodina
0.86
Mladost Lucani
0.86
Radnicki 1923
1.00
ŽelezniÄar PanÄevo
1.00
Radnicki NIS
1.00
Novi Pazar
1.14
Radnik Surdulica
1.50
FK Partizan
1.67
OFK Beograd
1.71
Cukaricki
1.71
Macva
1.86
Zemun
2.00
IMT Novi Beograd is 0.93 goals better than Radnik Surdulica in terms of goals conceded per game (0.57 vs 1.50).
ā±ļø Possession
Avg possession %
FK Partizan
63%
FK Crvena Zvezda
61%
ŽelezniÄar PanÄevo
61%
Radnicki 1923
58%
Radnicki NIS
55%
OFK Beograd
54%
IMT Novi Beograd
53%
Vojvodina
52%
Novi Pazar
49%
Radnik Surdulica
48%
Cukaricki
41%
Mladost Lucani
38%
Macva
38%
Zemun
37%
IMT Novi Beograd is 4.9 percentage points better than Radnik Surdulica in terms of average possession (53% vs 48%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
IMT Novi Beograd or Draw
81.0%
Avg Implied -
52%
29%
19%
covers IMT Novi Beograd + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
IMT Novi Beograd or Radnik Surdulica
70.6%
Avg Implied -
52%
29%
19%
covers IMT Novi Beograd + Radnik Surdulica
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Radnik Surdulica
48.4%
Avg Implied -
52%
29%
19%
covers Draw + Radnik Surdulica
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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š„ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
IMT Novi Beograd over/under 0.5
Over
76.3%
Under
23.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IMT Novi Beograd over/under 1.5
Over
42.2%
Under
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IMT Novi Beograd over/under 2.5
Over
17.7%
Under
82.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IMT Novi Beograd over/under 3.5
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Surdulica over/under 0.5
Over
54.1%
Under
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Surdulica over/under 1.5
Over
18.3%
Under
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Surdulica over/under 2.5
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Surdulica over/under 3.5
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
āļø 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to IMT Novi Beograd, so a minus line means IMT Novi Beograd give that many goals of a start and Radnik Surdulica receive them. At -1, IMT Novi Beograd must win by two or more to land; a one-goal IMT Novi Beograd win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (IMT Novi Beograd)
IMT Novi Beograd -2
10.4%
Draw -2
16.1%
Radnik Surdulica +2
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (IMT Novi Beograd)
IMT Novi Beograd -1
26.6%
Draw -1
25.0%
Radnik Surdulica +1
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (IMT Novi Beograd)
IMT Novi Beograd +1
81.0%
Draw +1
13.0%
Radnik Surdulica -1
6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (IMT Novi Beograd)
IMT Novi Beograd +2
93.9%
Draw +2
4.7%
Radnik Surdulica -2
1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U
IMT Novi Beograd
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.43
0.31
0.31
0.21
0.57
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (22)
0.27
0.45
0.30
0.20
0.25
0.67
vs Weaker (5)
0.20
0.20
0.25
0.25
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnik Surdulica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radnik Surdulica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.43
0.47
0.60
0.40
0.27
vs Stronger (13)
0.54
0.69
0.83
1.00
0.29
0.43
vs Similar (17)
0.35
0.24
0.22
0.33
0.50
0.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (IMT Novi Beograd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
š„ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
IMT Novi Beograd over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IMT Novi Beograd over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IMT Novi Beograd over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Surdulica over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Surdulica over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Surdulica over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ā±ļø 10. Second Half Goals O/U
IMT Novi Beograd
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.43
0.88
0.38
0.93
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.33
0.50
0.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.82
0.41
0.80
0.30
0.83
0.50
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.60
1.25
0.75
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnik Surdulica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radnik Surdulica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.77
0.87
0.47
0.47
1.07
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
0.77
0.50
0.67
0.43
0.86
vs Similar (17)
0.82
0.76
1.11
0.33
0.50
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (IMT Novi Beograd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
š„ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
IMT Novi Beograd over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IMT Novi Beograd over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IMT Novi Beograd over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Surdulica over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Surdulica over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Surdulica over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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š„ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 25.5 fouls
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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š° 14. Squad value
š° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FCZ (32)
€115m
FP (30)
€48m
VOJ (29)
€30m
OB (28)
€18m
ŽP (24)
€13m
INB (23)
€12m
RN (26)
€11m
NP (21)
€10m
CUK (23)
€10m
R1 (26)
€9m
RS (26)
€9m
ML (28)
€8m
ZEM (22)
€5m
MAC (19)
€4m
IMT Novi Beograd's squad is €3m more valuable than Radnik Surdulica's (€12m vs €9m).
āļø Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FCZ (13)
€62m
FP (15)
€24m
VOJ (15)
€13m
ŽP (9)
€7m
OB (10)
€6m
RN (11)
€4m
ML (10)
€4m
R1 (10)
€4m
CUK (8)
€4m
INB (8)
€4m
NP (9)
€3m
RS (10)
€3m
ZEM (9)
€2m
MAC (7)
€2m
IMT Novi Beograd and Radnik Surdulica have a similar attack value (both €4m).
š§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FCZ (6)
€21m
FP (2)
€11m
VOJ (4)
€7m
OB (8)
€4m
INB (3)
€4m
R1 (6)
€3m
NP (3)
€2m
CUK (5)
€2m
RS (5)
€2m
ZEM (5)
€1m
ML (6)
€1m
ŽP (4)
€1m
RN (3)
€1m
MAC (3)
€1m
IMT Novi Beograd's midfield is €3m more valuable than Radnik Surdulica's (€4m vs €2m).
š”ļø Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FCZ (13)
€33m
FP (13)
€14m
VOJ (10)
€9m
OB (10)
€8m
ŽP (11)
€6m
RN (12)
€5m
NP (9)
€5m
RS (11)
€4m
INB (12)
€4m
CUK (10)
€3m
R1 (10)
€3m
ML (12)
€2m
MAC (9)
€2m
ZEM (8)
€1m
IMT Novi Beograd and Radnik Surdulica have a similar defence value (both €4m).
Serbia: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Serbia: Super Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FK Crvena Zvezda
Vojvodina
Mladost Lucani
Radnicki 1923
Cukaricki
ŽelezniÄar PanÄevo
Novi Pazar
OFK Beograd
FK Partizan
Macva
Radnicki NIS
Zemun