This opponent (Erzgebirge Aue) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Erzgebirge Aue
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.43
1.00
0.93
0.80
1.93
vs Stronger (16)
0.94
1.38
1.14
0.86
0.78
1.78
vs Similar (14)
0.86
1.50
0.88
1.00
0.83
2.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Ingolstadt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.8%
Under 1.5
23.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.3%
Under 2.5
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.2%
Under 3.5
70.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.1%
No
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
2-1
9.4%
1-0
9.3%
2-0
8.4%
0-0
7.7%
1-2
6.6%
0-1
6.2%
2-2
5.3%
Ingolstadt goals ↓
Erzgebirge Aue goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.7%
6.2%
4.1%
1.6%
0.4%
1
9.3%
13%
6.6%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.4%
9.4%
5.3%
2.0%
0.6%
3
4.5%
5.0%
2.8%
1.1%
0.3%
4
1.8%
2.0%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ingolstadt goals (down), columns = Erzgebirge Aue goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
1. FC Köln
1.85
SC Paderborn 07
1.68
Union Berlin
1.68
Hamburger SV
1.65
1. FC Heidenheim
1.62
FC St. Pauli
1.44
Arminia Bielefeld
1.44
Holstein Kiel
1.44
Regensburg
1.44
SV Darmstadt 98
1.35
VfL Bochum
1.29
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.24
Dynamo Dresden
1.24
Erzgebirge Aue
1.18
SV Sandhausen
1.12
Ingolstadt
1.03
1. FC Magdeburg
0.91
Duisburg
0.82
Ingolstadt is 0.15 points worse than Erzgebirge Aue in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
1. FC Köln
2.47
SC Paderborn 07
2.24
Holstein Kiel
1.76
1. FC Heidenheim
1.62
Regensburg
1.62
Union Berlin
1.59
Arminia Bielefeld
1.53
VfL Bochum
1.44
FC St. Pauli
1.35
Hamburger SV
1.32
SV Darmstadt 98
1.32
SV Sandhausen
1.32
Erzgebirge Aue
1.26
Ingolstadt
1.26
Dynamo Dresden
1.21
Duisburg
1.15
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.09
1. FC Magdeburg
1.03
Ingolstadt and Erzgebirge Aue are level in goals scored per game (both 1.26).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Union Berlin
0.97
Hamburger SV
1.24
1. FC Heidenheim
1.32
1. FC Köln
1.38
Erzgebirge Aue
1.38
Dynamo Dresden
1.41
SC Paderborn 07
1.47
Arminia Bielefeld
1.47
VfL Bochum
1.47
Holstein Kiel
1.50
SV Sandhausen
1.53
FC St. Pauli
1.56
1. FC Magdeburg
1.56
SV Darmstadt 98
1.56
Regensburg
1.59
Ingolstadt
1.62
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.65
Duisburg
1.91
Ingolstadt is 0.24 goals worse than Erzgebirge Aue in terms of goals conceded per game (1.62 vs 1.38).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ingolstadt
For 7.0 · Against 4.2 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.3 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.0 · Against 13.1 · Total 29.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Erzgebirge Aue
For 5.1 · Against 3.7 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.2 · Against 13.9 · Total 30.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ingolstadt
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
11.1
8.9
4.2
3.6
4.8
30.6
29.2
32.0
vs Stronger (35)
10.0
11.3
8.6
4.2
3.9
4.5
30.9
29.9
32.0
vs Similar (15)
10.1
10.7
9.5
4.2
3.0
5.2
29.9
27.6
31.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
64%
36%
64%
52%
76%
92%
88%
96%
% under line
50%
36%
64%
36%
48%
24%
8%
12%
4%
This opponent (Erzgebirge Aue) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Erzgebirge Aue
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.6
8.9
3.2
3.0
3.3
28.9
28.4
29.3
vs Stronger (30)
9.1
9.8
8.5
2.7
2.9
2.6
28.0
27.5
28.4
vs Similar (20)
9.4
9.4
9.5
3.8
3.2
4.6
30.1
29.6
30.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
49%
67%
32%
54%
48%
60%
92%
100%
84%
% under line
51%
33%
68%
46%
52%
40%
8%
0%
16%
This opponent (Ingolstadt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
SC Paderborn 07
15.0
Hamburger SV
10.8
SV Darmstadt 98
10.5
Arminia Bielefeld
10.3
1. FC Heidenheim
10.2
Ingolstadt
10.0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
10.0
Holstein Kiel
9.9
1. FC Köln
9.9
Regensburg
9.8
VfL Bochum
9.8
Union Berlin
9.8
FC St. Pauli
9.8
Dynamo Dresden
9.6
Erzgebirge Aue
9.3
SV Sandhausen
9.1
Duisburg
8.6
1. FC Magdeburg
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SC Paderborn 07
5.7
Regensburg
5.0
Holstein Kiel
4.6
1. FC Heidenheim
4.5
VfL Bochum
4.4
Erzgebirge Aue
4.3
Duisburg
4.2
SV Sandhausen
4.2
SV Darmstadt 98
4.2
Ingolstadt
4.2
Dynamo Dresden
4.2
FC St. Pauli
4.0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
3.9
Hamburger SV
3.8
1. FC Köln
3.8
Union Berlin
3.6
Arminia Bielefeld
3.4
1. FC Magdeburg
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SV Sandhausen
31.7
Regensburg
31.5
Ingolstadt
30.6
SC Paderborn 07
30.3
1. FC Heidenheim
29.4
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
29.3
Erzgebirge Aue
28.9
Union Berlin
28.5
VfL Bochum
28.3
Holstein Kiel
28.2
Hamburger SV
28.1
Duisburg
28.0
SV Darmstadt 98
27.7
Dynamo Dresden
27.6
1. FC Köln
27.6
1. FC Magdeburg
27.0
FC St. Pauli
25.6
Arminia Bielefeld
25.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
60.2%
Under 9.5
39.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
51.7%
Under 3.5
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
90.0%
Under 21.5
10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ingolstadt
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.53
0.50
0.36
0.69
0.69
vs Stronger (19)
0.42
0.63
0.50
0.50
0.33
0.78
vs Similar (11)
0.91
0.36
0.50
0.00
1.14
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Erzgebirge Aue) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Erzgebirge Aue
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.50
0.67
0.27
0.40
0.73
vs Stronger (16)
0.56
0.56
0.71
0.29
0.44
0.78
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.43
0.62
0.25
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Ingolstadt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ingolstadt over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ingolstadt
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.77
0.93
0.93
0.56
0.62
vs Stronger (19)
0.79
0.58
0.90
0.70
0.67
0.44
vs Similar (11)
0.64
1.09
1.00
1.50
0.43
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Erzgebirge Aue) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Erzgebirge Aue
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.93
0.33
0.67
0.40
1.20
vs Stronger (16)
0.38
0.81
0.43
0.57
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.36
1.07
0.25
0.75
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Ingolstadt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ingolstadt over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
1FK (74)
€133m
UB (29)
€123m
HS (28)
€117m
FSP (27)
€46m
SP0 (33)
€43m
HK (32)
€34m
1FH (26)
€33m
SD9 (28)
€24m
1FM (26)
€21m
VB (24)
€19m
DD (26)
€19m
SGF (24)
€19m
AB (23)
€18m
DUI (26)
€9m
ING (26)
€7m
EA (18)
€2m
Ingolstadt's squad is €5m more valuable than Erzgebirge Aue's (€7m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
1FK (25)
€72m
UB (10)
€46m
HS (11)
€46m
1FH (11)
€15m
SP0 (11)
€14m
HK (12)
€12m
1FM (9)
€10m
FSP (7)
€10m
SD9 (11)
€9m
AB (8)
€7m
DD (8)
€6m
VB (9)
€6m
SGF (6)
€4m
DUI (12)
€4m
ING (10)
€3m
EA (5)
€1m
Ingolstadt's attack is €2m more valuable than Erzgebirge Aue's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (5)
€34m
UB (6)
€26m
1FK (16)
€19m
SP0 (13)
€18m
FSP (8)
€15m
HK (5)
€7m
1FH (4)
€7m
SD9 (4)
€6m
SGF (8)
€5m
VB (4)
€5m
DD (4)
€4m
1FM (4)
€4m
AB (5)
€4m
DUI (4)
€2m
ING (4)
€1m
EA (5)
€1m
Ingolstadt and Erzgebirge Aue have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UB (13)
€50m
1FK (33)
€43m
HS (12)
€37m
FSP (12)
€21m
HK (15)
€16m
1FH (11)
€12m
SP0 (9)
€11m
SGF (10)
€9m
SD9 (13)
€8m
DD (14)
€8m
VB (11)
€8m
AB (10)
€7m
1FM (13)
€7m
ING (12)
€3m
DUI (10)
€3m
EA (8)
€1m
Ingolstadt's defence is €2m more valuable than Erzgebirge Aue's (€3m vs €1m).
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
1. FC Köln
SC Paderborn 07
Union Berlin
Hamburger SV
1. FC Heidenheim
Holstein Kiel
Arminia Bielefeld
FC St. Pauli
SV Darmstadt 98
VfL Bochum
Dynamo Dresden
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
SV Sandhausen
1. FC Magdeburg
Duisburg