This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Holstein Kiel
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
1.50
2.33
1.40
1.67
1.60
vs Stronger (2)
3.00
0.50
3.00
1.00
3.00
0.00
vs Similar (21)
1.81
1.81
2.10
1.60
1.55
2.00
vs Weaker (7)
2.29
0.86
2.75
1.00
1.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Ingolstadt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.3%
Under 1.5
14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
64.4%
Under 2.5
35.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.4%
Under 3.5
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.6%
No
37.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
10.2%
1-2
9.7%
0-2
8.1%
1-3
6.9%
0-1
6.7%
2-2
5.9%
0-3
5.7%
2-1
5.6%
Ingolstadt goals ↓
Holstein Kiel goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.5%
6.7%
8.1%
5.7%
3.0%
1
3.5%
10%
9.7%
6.9%
3.6%
2
2.6%
5.6%
5.9%
4.1%
2.2%
3
1.1%
2.2%
2.4%
1.7%
0.9%
4
0.3%
0.7%
0.7%
0.5%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ingolstadt goals (down), columns = Holstein Kiel goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
1. FC Köln
1.85
SC Paderborn 07
1.68
Union Berlin
1.68
Hamburger SV
1.65
1. FC Heidenheim
1.62
FC St. Pauli
1.44
Arminia Bielefeld
1.44
Holstein Kiel
1.44
Regensburg
1.44
SV Darmstadt 98
1.35
VfL Bochum
1.29
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.24
Dynamo Dresden
1.24
Erzgebirge Aue
1.18
SV Sandhausen
1.12
Ingolstadt
1.03
1. FC Magdeburg
0.91
Duisburg
0.82
Ingolstadt is 0.41 points worse than Holstein Kiel in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 1.44).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
1. FC Köln
2.47
SC Paderborn 07
2.24
Holstein Kiel
1.76
1. FC Heidenheim
1.62
Regensburg
1.62
Union Berlin
1.59
Arminia Bielefeld
1.53
VfL Bochum
1.44
FC St. Pauli
1.35
Hamburger SV
1.32
SV Darmstadt 98
1.32
SV Sandhausen
1.32
Erzgebirge Aue
1.26
Ingolstadt
1.26
Dynamo Dresden
1.21
Duisburg
1.15
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.09
1. FC Magdeburg
1.03
Ingolstadt is 0.50 goals worse than Holstein Kiel in terms of goals scored per game (1.26 vs 1.76).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Union Berlin
0.97
Hamburger SV
1.24
1. FC Heidenheim
1.32
1. FC Köln
1.38
Erzgebirge Aue
1.38
Dynamo Dresden
1.41
SC Paderborn 07
1.47
Arminia Bielefeld
1.47
VfL Bochum
1.47
Holstein Kiel
1.50
SV Sandhausen
1.53
FC St. Pauli
1.56
1. FC Magdeburg
1.56
SV Darmstadt 98
1.56
Regensburg
1.59
Ingolstadt
1.62
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.65
Duisburg
1.91
Ingolstadt is 0.12 goals worse than Holstein Kiel in terms of goals conceded per game (1.62 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ingolstadt
For 5.0 · Against 4.3 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 17.8 · Total 30.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Holstein Kiel
For 7.5 · Against 6.2 · Total 13.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 14.2 · Total 27.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ingolstadt
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.8
9.2
4.1
3.5
4.7
30.2
29.3
31.1
vs Stronger (32)
10.7
11.8
9.5
4.4
4.2
4.6
30.1
30.0
30.2
vs Similar (18)
8.9
9.1
8.7
3.6
2.2
4.9
30.4
28.1
32.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
56%
44%
54%
48%
60%
92%
92%
92%
% under line
50%
44%
56%
46%
52%
40%
8%
8%
8%
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Holstein Kiel
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
11.1
10.9
4.0
3.8
4.2
26.4
26.8
25.9
vs Stronger (2)
13.5
13.0
14.0
3.0
2.0
4.0
25.5
29.0
22.0
vs Similar (35)
11.1
11.3
10.9
3.8
3.9
3.7
26.3
27.0
25.6
vs Weaker (13)
10.4
10.4
10.4
4.5
3.6
5.8
26.8
26.2
27.8
% over line
62%
64%
60%
56%
48%
64%
82%
84%
80%
% under line
38%
36%
40%
44%
52%
36%
18%
16%
20%
This opponent (Ingolstadt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
SC Paderborn 07
11.3
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
11.1
Holstein Kiel
11.0
Regensburg
10.5
1. FC Heidenheim
10.4
1. FC Köln
10.4
SV Darmstadt 98
10.2
Arminia Bielefeld
10.2
Ingolstadt
10.0
VfL Bochum
9.9
Hamburger SV
9.9
Union Berlin
9.8
Erzgebirge Aue
9.7
SV Sandhausen
9.4
FC St. Pauli
9.3
Dynamo Dresden
9.2
Duisburg
8.9
1. FC Magdeburg
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SC Paderborn 07
5.3
1. FC Magdeburg
4.9
Erzgebirge Aue
4.7
Regensburg
4.6
Duisburg
4.5
Dynamo Dresden
4.4
SV Darmstadt 98
4.4
VfL Bochum
4.4
1. FC Heidenheim
4.3
1. FC Köln
4.3
SV Sandhausen
4.3
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
4.2
FC St. Pauli
4.2
Union Berlin
4.2
Ingolstadt
4.1
Holstein Kiel
4.0
Hamburger SV
4.0
Arminia Bielefeld
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ingolstadt
30.2
Regensburg
29.6
SV Sandhausen
29.2
1. FC Köln
29.1
Union Berlin
28.8
VfL Bochum
28.7
Duisburg
28.4
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
27.8
Dynamo Dresden
27.6
1. FC Heidenheim
27.5
Erzgebirge Aue
27.5
SV Darmstadt 98
27.2
SC Paderborn 07
27.2
Arminia Bielefeld
26.9
Hamburger SV
26.4
Holstein Kiel
26.4
1. FC Magdeburg
26.2
FC St. Pauli
26.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
64.8%
Under 9.5
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
54.6%
Under 3.5
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
87.4%
Under 21.5
12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ingolstadt
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.57
0.40
0.53
0.33
0.60
vs Stronger (19)
0.26
0.58
0.30
0.60
0.22
0.56
vs Similar (11)
0.55
0.55
0.60
0.40
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Holstein Kiel
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.70
1.00
0.73
0.67
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (21)
0.81
0.95
0.80
1.00
0.82
0.91
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
0.14
1.25
0.25
0.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Ingolstadt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ingolstadt over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ingolstadt
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.17
0.67
1.07
0.80
1.27
vs Stronger (19)
0.58
1.21
0.60
1.00
0.56
1.44
vs Similar (11)
1.00
1.09
0.80
1.20
1.17
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Holstein Kiel
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.80
1.33
0.67
1.00
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
3.00
0.00
vs Similar (21)
1.00
0.86
1.30
0.60
0.73
1.09
vs Weaker (7)
1.43
0.71
1.50
0.75
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Ingolstadt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ingolstadt over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Holstein Kiel · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Phil Harres75%
Guillermo Balzi50%
Jonas Therkelsen25%
Ivan Nekić0%
Timon Weiner0%
Jonas Meffert0%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Adrián Kaprálik0%
Hiroki Sekine0%
Leon Parduzi0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kasper Davidsen75%
Ivan Nekić50%
Jonas Therkelsen50%
Hiroki Sekine50%
Timon Weiner33%
Leon Parduzi33%
Jonas Meffert25%
Guillermo Balzi25%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Phil Harres0%
Adrián Kaprálik0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Phil Harres50%
Adrián Kaprálik50%
Ivan Nekić0%
Timon Weiner0%
Jonas Meffert0%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Guillermo Balzi0%
Jonas Therkelsen0%
Hiroki Sekine0%
Leon Parduzi0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Phil Harres75%
Guillermo Balzi25%
Ivan Nekić0%
Timon Weiner0%
Jonas Meffert0%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Adrián Kaprálik0%
Jonas Therkelsen0%
Hiroki Sekine0%
Leon Parduzi0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
1FK (74)
€133m
UB (29)
€123m
HS (28)
€117m
FSP (27)
€46m
SP0 (33)
€43m
HK (32)
€34m
1FH (26)
€33m
SD9 (28)
€24m
1FM (26)
€21m
VB (24)
€19m
DD (26)
€19m
SGF (24)
€19m
AB (23)
€18m
DUI (26)
€9m
ING (26)
€7m
EA (18)
€2m
Ingolstadt's squad is €27m less valuable than Holstein Kiel's (€7m vs €34m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
1FK (25)
€72m
UB (10)
€46m
HS (11)
€46m
1FH (11)
€15m
SP0 (11)
€14m
HK (12)
€12m
1FM (9)
€10m
FSP (7)
€10m
SD9 (11)
€9m
AB (8)
€7m
DD (8)
€6m
VB (9)
€6m
SGF (6)
€4m
DUI (12)
€4m
ING (10)
€3m
EA (5)
€1m
Ingolstadt's attack is €9m less valuable than Holstein Kiel's (€3m vs €12m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (5)
€34m
UB (6)
€26m
1FK (16)
€19m
SP0 (13)
€18m
FSP (8)
€15m
HK (5)
€7m
1FH (4)
€7m
SD9 (4)
€6m
SGF (8)
€5m
VB (4)
€5m
DD (4)
€4m
1FM (4)
€4m
AB (5)
€4m
DUI (4)
€2m
ING (4)
€1m
EA (5)
€1m
Ingolstadt's midfield is €5m less valuable than Holstein Kiel's (€1m vs €7m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UB (13)
€50m
1FK (33)
€43m
HS (12)
€37m
FSP (12)
€21m
HK (15)
€16m
1FH (11)
€12m
SP0 (9)
€11m
SGF (10)
€9m
SD9 (13)
€8m
DD (14)
€8m
VB (11)
€8m
AB (10)
€7m
1FM (13)
€7m
ING (12)
€3m
DUI (10)
€3m
EA (8)
€1m
Ingolstadt's defence is €12m less valuable than Holstein Kiel's (€3m vs €16m).
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
1. FC Köln
SC Paderborn 07
Union Berlin
Hamburger SV
1. FC Heidenheim
Arminia Bielefeld
FC St. Pauli
SV Darmstadt 98
VfL Bochum
Dynamo Dresden
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Erzgebirge Aue
SV Sandhausen
1. FC Magdeburg
Duisburg