This opponent (SC Paderborn 07) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Paderborn 07
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.40
1.40
1.60
2.00
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.73
1.45
1.27
1.64
2.18
1.27
vs Weaker (8)
1.62
1.25
1.75
1.50
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Ingolstadt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
83.1%
Under 1.5
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
61.0%
@ 1.69+5.1%
Under 2.5
39.0%
@ 2.14-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.7%
Under 3.5
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.6%
No
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
11.0%
1-2
9.7%
1-1
9.5%
0-1 ✓
8.8%
0-3
8.3%
1-3
7.4%
0-0
5.1%
0-4
4.7%
Ingolstadt goals ↓
SC Paderborn 07 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.1%
8.8%
11%
8.3%
4.7%
1
2.9%
9.5%
9.7%
7.4%
4.2%
2
1.7%
3.8%
4.3%
3.3%
1.8%
3
0.5%
1.1%
1.3%
1.0%
0.5%
4
0.1%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ingolstadt goals (down), columns = SC Paderborn 07 goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Schalke 04
1.91
Werder Bremen
1.85
Hamburger SV
1.76
SV Darmstadt 98
1.76
FC St. Pauli
1.68
1. FC Heidenheim
1.53
SC Paderborn 07
1.50
1. FC Nürnberg
1.50
Holstein Kiel
1.32
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.29
Hannover 96
1.24
Karlsruher SC
1.21
Hansa Rostock
1.21
SV Sandhausen
1.21
Regensburg
1.18
Dynamo Dresden
0.94
Erzgebirge Aue
0.76
Ingolstadt
0.62
Ingolstadt is 0.88 points worse than SC Paderborn 07 in terms of average points per game (0.62 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Schalke 04
2.12
SV Darmstadt 98
2.09
Hamburger SV
1.97
Werder Bremen
1.91
FC St. Pauli
1.79
SC Paderborn 07
1.65
Karlsruher SC
1.59
Regensburg
1.47
1. FC Nürnberg
1.44
Holstein Kiel
1.35
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.32
1. FC Heidenheim
1.26
SV Sandhausen
1.24
Hansa Rostock
1.21
Hannover 96
1.03
Dynamo Dresden
0.97
Erzgebirge Aue
0.94
Ingolstadt
0.88
Ingolstadt is 0.76 goals worse than SC Paderborn 07 in terms of goals scored per game (0.88 vs 1.65).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hamburger SV
1.03
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.24
Werder Bremen
1.26
SC Paderborn 07
1.29
FC Schalke 04
1.29
1. FC Heidenheim
1.32
FC St. Pauli
1.35
SV Darmstadt 98
1.35
Dynamo Dresden
1.35
Hannover 96
1.44
1. FC Nürnberg
1.44
Regensburg
1.50
Hansa Rostock
1.53
Holstein Kiel
1.59
SV Sandhausen
1.59
Karlsruher SC
1.62
Ingolstadt
1.91
Erzgebirge Aue
2.12
Ingolstadt is 0.62 goals worse than SC Paderborn 07 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.91 vs 1.29).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ingolstadt
For 4.7 · Against 5.2 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.3 · Against 12.0 · Total 27.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
SC Paderborn 07
For 4.2 · Against 5.9 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 10.0 · Total 20.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ingolstadt
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
8.9
9.7
4.2
4.3
4.0
26.8
28.7
25.1
vs Stronger (34)
9.8
9.2
10.4
4.2
4.5
3.9
26.0
27.4
24.6
vs Similar (16)
8.4
8.3
8.4
4.0
3.7
4.2
28.6
31.9
26.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
44%
38%
50%
58%
62%
54%
78%
92%
65%
% under line
56%
62%
50%
42%
38%
46%
22%
8%
35%
This opponent (SC Paderborn 07) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Paderborn 07
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.5
9.3
4.2
4.4
4.0
22.7
23.5
21.9
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (36)
10.3
10.7
9.8
4.4
4.8
4.1
22.5
22.7
22.2
vs Weaker (14)
8.9
9.9
7.7
3.6
3.6
3.5
23.4
25.2
21.0
% over line
42%
50%
33%
62%
62%
62%
62%
69%
54%
% under line
58%
50%
67%
38%
38%
38%
38%
31%
46%
This opponent (Ingolstadt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Hamburger SV
11.1
1. FC Heidenheim
11.0
Hannover 96
10.7
SV Sandhausen
10.3
1. FC Nürnberg
10.3
FC Schalke 04
10.1
Fortuna Düsseldorf
10.1
Holstein Kiel
9.9
SC Paderborn 07
9.9
Werder Bremen
9.8
Karlsruher SC
9.7
Dynamo Dresden
9.7
SV Darmstadt 98
9.6
Hansa Rostock
9.4
Ingolstadt
9.3
FC St. Pauli
9.3
Regensburg
9.2
Erzgebirge Aue
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Dynamo Dresden
4.5
SV Darmstadt 98
4.5
Hansa Rostock
4.5
SV Sandhausen
4.4
Regensburg
4.3
Hamburger SV
4.3
SC Paderborn 07
4.2
Ingolstadt
4.2
Werder Bremen
4.2
Erzgebirge Aue
4.2
1. FC Nürnberg
4.1
Fortuna Düsseldorf
4.0
Holstein Kiel
4.0
Karlsruher SC
3.9
Hannover 96
3.8
FC Schalke 04
3.8
FC St. Pauli
3.7
1. FC Heidenheim
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Regensburg
27.7
Ingolstadt
26.8
SV Darmstadt 98
25.2
Erzgebirge Aue
24.3
Hansa Rostock
24.0
Werder Bremen
23.9
SV Sandhausen
23.8
FC St. Pauli
23.6
Hannover 96
23.6
Fortuna Düsseldorf
23.6
Karlsruher SC
23.5
Hamburger SV
23.5
1. FC Nürnberg
23.0
FC Schalke 04
23.0
Dynamo Dresden
22.9
SC Paderborn 07
22.7
Holstein Kiel
21.9
1. FC Heidenheim
21.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
38.4%
Under 9.5
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
61.1%
Under 3.5
38.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
67.7%
Under 21.5
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ingolstadt
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.83
0.50
0.71
0.38
0.94
vs Stronger (21)
0.29
1.10
0.30
0.90
0.27
1.27
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.22
1.00
0.25
0.60
0.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Paderborn 07) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Paderborn 07
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.40
0.53
0.47
1.40
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.05
0.45
0.64
0.45
1.45
0.45
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
0.25
0.25
0.50
1.25
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Ingolstadt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ingolstadt over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Paderborn 07 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Paderborn 07 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Paderborn 07 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ingolstadt
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.13
0.36
1.00
0.62
1.25
vs Stronger (21)
0.57
1.19
0.30
1.00
0.82
1.36
vs Similar (9)
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.20
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Paderborn 07) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Paderborn 07
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.00
0.87
1.13
0.60
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.68
1.00
0.64
1.18
0.73
0.82
vs Weaker (8)
0.88
1.00
1.50
1.00
0.25
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Ingolstadt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ingolstadt over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Paderborn 07 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Paderborn 07 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Paderborn 07 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
SC Paderborn 07 · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Filip Bilbija39%
Adriano Grimaldi25%
Lucas Copado25%
Marcel Hoffmeier20%
Laurin Curda19%
Stefano Marino19%
Sebastian Klaas17%
Sven Michel13%
Mika Baur11%
Steffen Tigges9%
Kennedy Okpala8%
Calvin Brackelmann7%
Raphael Obermair7%
Nick Bätzner6%
Tjark Lasse Scheller6%
Luis Engelns5%
Felix Götze3%
David Kinsombi0%
Marco Wörner0%
Dennis Seimen0%
Jonah Sticker0%
Mattes Hansen0%
Santiago Castañeda0%
Ruben Müller0%
Niklas Mohr0%
Lucas Copado0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marcel Hoffmeier40%
Kennedy Okpala33%
Laurin Curda22%
Mattes Hansen21%
Sven Michel20%
Marco Wörner20%
Santiago Castañeda18%
Raphael Obermair17%
Mika Baur17%
Ruben Müller17%
Filip Bilbija15%
Tjark Lasse Scheller14%
Felix Götze12%
Nick Bätzner12%
Luis Engelns11%
Calvin Brackelmann7%
Sebastian Klaas7%
Stefano Marino6%
Steffen Tigges6%
Jonah Sticker4%
David Kinsombi0%
Adriano Grimaldi0%
Lucas Copado0%
Dennis Seimen0%
Niklas Mohr0%
Lucas Copado0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Raphael Obermair30%
Laurin Curda19%
Mika Baur14%
Calvin Brackelmann11%
Sebastian Klaas10%
Filip Bilbija9%
Ruben Müller8%
Felix Götze6%
Steffen Tigges6%
Nick Bätzner6%
Sven Michel3%
Stefano Marino3%
Mattes Hansen3%
David Kinsombi0%
Adriano Grimaldi0%
Marcel Hoffmeier0%
Tjark Lasse Scheller0%
Lucas Copado0%
Marco Wörner0%
Dennis Seimen0%
Jonah Sticker0%
Santiago Castañeda0%
Kennedy Okpala0%
Luis Engelns0%
Niklas Mohr0%
Lucas Copado0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Stefano Marino23%
Laurin Curda19%
Steffen Tigges18%
Filip Bilbija15%
Calvin Brackelmann11%
Raphael Obermair10%
Sebastian Klaas7%
Sven Michel7%
Mika Baur6%
Nick Bätzner3%
Santiago Castañeda3%
David Kinsombi0%
Felix Götze0%
Adriano Grimaldi0%
Marcel Hoffmeier0%
Tjark Lasse Scheller0%
Lucas Copado0%
Marco Wörner0%
Dennis Seimen0%
Jonah Sticker0%
Mattes Hansen0%
Ruben Müller0%
Kennedy Okpala0%
Luis Engelns0%
Niklas Mohr0%
Lucas Copado0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WB (33)
€119m
HS (28)
€117m
FS0 (29)
€67m
FSP (27)
€46m
SP0 (33)
€43m
1FN (28)
€40m
HK (32)
€34m
1FH (26)
€33m
H9 (26)
€33m
KS (25)
€31m
SD9 (28)
€24m
DD (26)
€19m
FD (26)
€10m
HR (27)
€8m
ING (26)
€7m
EA (18)
€2m
Ingolstadt's squad is €36m less valuable than SC Paderborn 07's (€7m vs €43m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WB (13)
€50m
HS (11)
€46m
FS0 (8)
€17m
KS (7)
€16m
1FH (11)
€15m
1FN (9)
€14m
SP0 (11)
€14m
HK (12)
€12m
FSP (7)
€10m
H9 (9)
€10m
SD9 (11)
€9m
DD (8)
€6m
HR (10)
€3m
ING (10)
€3m
FD (8)
€3m
EA (5)
€1m
Ingolstadt's attack is €11m less valuable than SC Paderborn 07's (€3m vs €14m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (5)
€34m
WB (5)
€28m
FS0 (8)
€24m
SP0 (13)
€18m
FSP (8)
€15m
1FN (6)
€13m
H9 (8)
€11m
HK (5)
€7m
1FH (4)
€7m
SD9 (4)
€6m
DD (4)
€4m
KS (6)
€4m
FD (5)
€2m
HR (4)
€2m
ING (4)
€1m
EA (5)
€1m
Ingolstadt's midfield is €17m less valuable than SC Paderborn 07's (€1m vs €18m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WB (15)
€41m
HS (12)
€37m
FS0 (13)
€26m
FSP (12)
€21m
HK (15)
€16m
1FN (13)
€12m
1FH (11)
€12m
H9 (9)
€12m
KS (12)
€12m
SP0 (9)
€11m
SD9 (13)
€8m
DD (14)
€8m
FD (13)
€5m
HR (13)
€3m
ING (12)
€3m
EA (8)
€1m
Ingolstadt's defence is €8m less valuable than SC Paderborn 07's (€3m vs €11m).
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →
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FC Schalke 04
Werder Bremen
Hamburger SV
SV Darmstadt 98
FC St. Pauli
1. FC Heidenheim
1. FC Nürnberg
Holstein Kiel
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Hannover 96
Karlsruher SC
Hansa Rostock
SV Sandhausen
Dynamo Dresden
Erzgebirge Aue