Inhulets are expected to emerge victorious against Nyva Ternopil, with a 47% chance of a home win, 30% for a draw, and 23% for an away win. The model's selection is a home win. This match is likely to be a low-scoring affair, with an expected total of 2.3 goals and a most likely total of 2 goals.
The most probable scoreline is 1-1, occurring with a 14% probability. Inhulets have been scoring an average of 2.2 goals at home, conceding just 0.6. Nyva Ternopil, on the other hand, have managed only 0.25 goals on average when playing away against stronger opponents, while conceding 0.5.
The model suggests taking Under 3.5 goals, which has an 80.5% probability of occurring. This pick is the model's selection. Inhulets have a 47% chance of winning, a 30% chance of drawing, and a 23% chance of losing. The model also suggests taking Under 3.5 goals, with a 80.5% probability, and Inhulets' home win with a 47% probability.
Results analysis
In a stunning upset, Nyva Ternopil secured a 2-1 win over Inhulets, extending their recent run of inconsistent form. The win marks a turning point for Nyva Ternopil, who were coming off a win, while Inhulets were struggling after two straight defeats. The model's selection, a home win, was incorrect, with a predicted probability of 47%. Nyva Ternopil's away win was the actual result, contrary to the model's call. The model's suggested pick, Under 3.5, hit with a probability of 80.5%, matching the final score of 1-2.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Inhulets win✗ Miss
46.9%
Avg Implied 37.7% · @ 2.40
Edge
+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.45
1xBet
2.41
Marathonbet
2.39
Betfair
2.38
Betano
2.37
Draw✗ Miss
30.0%
Avg Implied 29.3% · @ 3.08
Edge
+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.10
Betano
3.10
1xBet
3.02
Betfair
3.00
Nyva Ternopil win✓ Hit
23.1%
Avg Implied 32.9% · @ 2.75
Edge
-9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.80
Dafabet
2.80
1xBet
2.73
Betano
2.72
Marathonbet
2.69
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Inhulets
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.17
1.71
1.29
1.06
1.06
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.15
1.40
1.44
1.67
0.91
1.18
vs Weaker (10)
1.80
0.70
2.20
0.60
1.40
0.80
Clean sheet %
33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Nyva Ternopil) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nyva Ternopil
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.07
0.71
1.07
0.81
1.06
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
0.86
0.25
1.00
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (23)
0.91
1.13
0.90
1.10
0.92
1.15
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Inhulets) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.5%
@ 1.35+0.6%
Under 1.5
32.5%
@ 2.74-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Under
Marathonbet
2.74
1xBet
2.74
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
39.7%
@ 2.20-1.9%
Under 2.5
60.3%
@ 1.56+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.21
1xBet
2.21
Betano
2.18
Under
1xBet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.58
Betano
1.53
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.5%
@ 4.15-2.3%
Under 3.5
80.5%
@ 1.16+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.15
Marathonbet
4.15
Under
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
45.5%
@ 1.89-3.0%
No
54.5%
@ 1.77+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
1xBet
1.91
Marathonbet
1.87
No
1xBet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.77
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%@ 5.38+6.4%
1-0
12.9%@ 6.32+6.4%
0-0
11.6%@ 7.80+6.3%
2-0
9.8%@ 9.75+5.6%
2-1
8.8%@ 8.53+4.0%
0-1
7.9%@ 6.82+1.9%
1-2 ✓
5.7%@ 9.43+1.3%
3-0
4.5%@ 21.00+2.5%
Inhulets goals ↓
Nyva Ternopil goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
7.9%
4.1%
1.2%
0.3%
1
13%
14%
5.7%
1.7%
0.4%
2
9.8%
8.8%
3.9%
1.2%
0.3%
3
4.5%
4.0%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.6%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Inhulets goals (down), columns = Nyva Ternopil goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
3.00
SK Poltava
2.20
Oleksandria
2.20
Kulykiv
2.00
Prykarpattia
1.40
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.40
Metal Kharkiv
1.40
Inhulets
1.40
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Nyva Ternopil
1.20
UCSA
1.20
Chernihiv
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.60
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.60
Polissya II
0.40
Probiy Horodenka
0.40
Inhulets is 0.20 points better than Nyva Ternopil in terms of average points per game (1.40 vs 1.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kulykiv
2.20
Oleksandria
2.20
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.80
Prykarpattia
1.60
SK Poltava
1.60
UCSA
1.60
Inhulets
1.40
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Polissya II
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Chernihiv
1.00
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Probiy Horodenka
0.80
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.60
Inhulets is 0.40 goals better than Nyva Ternopil in terms of goals scored per game (1.40 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SK Poltava
0.20
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
0.20
Oleksandria
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Chernihiv
1.20
Prykarpattia
1.20
Kulykiv
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Lokomotiv Kyiv
1.40
Kolos Kovalivka II
1.60
Yarud Mariupol'
1.60
UCSA
1.60
Polissya II
1.80
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.80
Inhulets
1.80
Probiy Horodenka
2.40
Inhulets is 0.80 goals worse than Nyva Ternopil in terms of goals conceded per game (1.80 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Inhulets
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.47
0.79
0.71
0.31
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.45
0.55
0.78
0.78
0.18
0.36
vs Weaker (10)
0.70
0.30
0.80
0.60
0.60
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Nyva Ternopil) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nyva Ternopil
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.33
0.50
0.29
0.31
0.38
vs Stronger (7)
0.00
0.43
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.33
vs Similar (23)
0.52
0.30
0.70
0.20
0.38
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Inhulets) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Inhulets over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inhulets over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inhulets over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Inhulets
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.70
0.93
0.57
0.75
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.70
0.85
0.67
0.89
0.73
0.82
vs Weaker (10)
1.10
0.40
1.40
0.00
0.80
0.80
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Nyva Ternopil) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nyva Ternopil
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.73
0.21
0.79
0.50
0.69
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
0.43
0.25
0.50
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (23)
0.39
0.83
0.20
0.90
0.54
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Inhulets) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Inhulets over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inhulets over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inhulets over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
80.5%
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
-
-
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Inhulets · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kristian Svystun25%
Volodymyr Bilotserkovets20%
Vitaliy Faraseyenko17%
Ivan Losenko11%
Roman Volokhatyi8%
Marian Mysyk0%
Mykhailo Shershen0%
Oleksiy Palamarchuk0%
Oleksandr Kozak0%
Serhiy Kyslenko0%
Bogdan Mogilnyi0%
Oleksandr Piatov0%
Valerii Sad0%
Stanislav-Nuri Malysh0%
Maksym Melnychuk0%
Ilya Gadzhuk0%
Denis Sergeevich Rezepov0%
Oleksandr Dykhtiaruk0%
Vitalii Dubilei0%
Artem Benediuk0%
Oleh Pushkarov0%
Radion Lisnyak0%
Oleksandr Zhovtenko0%
Vitalii Katrych0%
Volodymyr Vilivald0%
Vladyslav Chaban0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Oleksandr Dykhtiaruk40%
Maksym Melnychuk25%
Valerii Sad22%
Denis Sergeevich Rezepov20%
Oleksandr Zhovtenko20%
Roman Volokhatyi17%
Vitaliy Faraseyenko17%
Vitalii Katrych14%
Serhiy Kyslenko12%
Ilya Gadzhuk12%
Ivan Losenko11%
Stanislav-Nuri Malysh9%
Oleh Pushkarov8%
Marian Mysyk0%
Mykhailo Shershen0%
Oleksiy Palamarchuk0%
Oleksandr Kozak0%
Bogdan Mogilnyi0%
Oleksandr Piatov0%
Volodymyr Bilotserkovets0%
Vitalii Dubilei0%
Artem Benediuk0%
Radion Lisnyak0%
Volodymyr Vilivald0%
Kristian Svystun0%
Vladyslav Chaban0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Stanislav-Nuri Malysh9%
Oleksandr Piatov8%
Marian Mysyk0%
Mykhailo Shershen0%
Oleksiy Palamarchuk0%
Oleksandr Kozak0%
Serhiy Kyslenko0%
Bogdan Mogilnyi0%
Valerii Sad0%
Maksym Melnychuk0%
Roman Volokhatyi0%
Volodymyr Bilotserkovets0%
Ilya Gadzhuk0%
Denis Sergeevich Rezepov0%
Vitaliy Faraseyenko0%
Oleksandr Dykhtiaruk0%
Vitalii Dubilei0%
Artem Benediuk0%
Ivan Losenko0%
Oleh Pushkarov0%
Radion Lisnyak0%
Oleksandr Zhovtenko0%
Vitalii Katrych0%
Volodymyr Vilivald0%
Kristian Svystun0%
Vladyslav Chaban0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Oleh Pushkarov8%
Marian Mysyk0%
Mykhailo Shershen0%
Oleksiy Palamarchuk0%
Oleksandr Kozak0%
Serhiy Kyslenko0%
Bogdan Mogilnyi0%
Oleksandr Piatov0%
Valerii Sad0%
Stanislav-Nuri Malysh0%
Maksym Melnychuk0%
Roman Volokhatyi0%
Volodymyr Bilotserkovets0%
Ilya Gadzhuk0%
Denis Sergeevich Rezepov0%
Vitaliy Faraseyenko0%
Oleksandr Dykhtiaruk0%
Vitalii Dubilei0%
Artem Benediuk0%
Ivan Losenko0%
Radion Lisnyak0%
Oleksandr Zhovtenko0%
Vitalii Katrych0%
Volodymyr Vilivald0%
Kristian Svystun0%
Vladyslav Chaban0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (25)
€8m
SP (22)
€4m
YM (21)
€3m
NT (23)
€3m
MK (17)
€3m
UCS (23)
€2m
AV (18)
€2m
CHE (22)
€2m
VM (19)
€2m
PRY (18)
€2m
PH (20)
€1m
INH (15)
€1m
PI (5)
€1m
KKI (3)
€0m
LK (7)
€0m
Inhulets's squad is €1m less valuable than Nyva Ternopil's (€1m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (10)
€3m
YM (6)
€1m
SP (5)
€1m
UCS (8)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
VM (5)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
PH (11)
€1m
PI (2)
€0m
MK (4)
€0m
AV (3)
€0m
CHE (4)
€0m
INH (6)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
LK (3)
€0m
Inhulets and Nyva Ternopil have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
YM (7)
€1m
OLE (4)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SP (7)
€1m
NT (5)
€1m
VM (8)
€1m
AV (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
MK (5)
€1m
UCS (5)
€1m
PI (1)
€0m
PH (3)
€0m
INH (5)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
LK (0)
€0m
Inhulets and Nyva Ternopil have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (11)
€3m
SP (10)
€2m
MK (8)
€2m
AV (11)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
UCS (10)
€1m
CHE (10)
€1m
INH (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
YM (8)
€1m
VM (6)
€1m
PH (6)
€0m
PI (2)
€0m
LK (4)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
Inhulets and Nyva Ternopil have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Ukraine: Persha Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Persha Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
SK Poltava
Oleksandria
Kulykiv
Prykarpattia
Metal Kharkiv
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
UCSA
Yarud Mariupol'
Chernihiv
Lokomotiv Kyiv
Kolos Kovalivka II
Polissya II
Probiy Horodenka