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Institute vs Ballinamallard United Result & Analysis

Date: 11/04/2026
Time: 14:00
Final 3-0
Institute
Institute
Vs
49%
27%
24%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ballinamallard United
Ballinamallard United
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Institute win✓ Hit
48.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United win✗ Miss
23.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

InstituteInstitute

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-612L13L41W60W20W21W01L31W21W00DH·LIM14/02A·ANN17/02A·H&W21/02H·ARM28/02H·LOU03/03A·WAR07/03H·QUE14/03A·LOU20/03A·DUN28/03H·WAR04/04
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.231.361.001.441.44
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.351.291.250.881.441.67
vs Weaker (13)1.461.151.501.171.431.14
Clean sheet %30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L41W01L00D01L12L00D11D04L02LH·INS31/01A·DUN14/02A·LOU17/02H·ANN21/02A·WAR24/02A·ARD28/02A·ARM07/03H·H&W14/03A·NEW21/03H·ARD28/03
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.071.600.931.471.201.73
vs Stronger (24)1.041.580.851.311.271.91
vs Similar (6)1.171.671.502.501.001.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Institute) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%8%016%126%222%314%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.2%
Under 1.5
24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.2%
Under 2.5
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.3%
Under 3.5
72.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.9%
No
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
9.0%
0-0
8.3%
0-1
6.3%
1-2
6.3%
3-1
5.0%
Institute goals ↓
Ballinamallard United goals →
01234
08.3%6.3%3.9%1.4%0.4%
110%13%6.3%2.2%0.6%
29.0%9.5%5.0%1.7%0.5%
34.8%5.0%2.6%0.9%0.2%
41.9%2.0%1.0%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Institute goals (down), columns = Ballinamallard United goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Limavady United
2.13
Annagh United
1.89
H&W Welders
1.74
Newington Youth
1.58
Institute
1.55
Queen's University
1.50
Loughgall
1.47
Ards
1.37
Warrenpoint Town
1.08
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Dundela
0.74
Armagh City
0.50
Institute is 0.55 points better than Ballinamallard United in terms of average points per game (1.55 vs 1.00).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
H&W Welders
2.29
Newington Youth
2.03
Limavady United
1.82
Institute
1.55
Ards
1.47
Annagh United
1.45
Queen's University
1.34
Loughgall
1.32
Warrenpoint Town
1.18
Ballinamallard United
1.16
Dundela
1.13
Armagh City
0.79
Institute is 0.39 goals better than Ballinamallard United in terms of goals scored per game (1.55 vs 1.16).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Limavady United
0.89
Loughgall
1.00
Annagh United
1.03
Queen's University
1.21
Institute
1.21
H&W Welders
1.26
Ards
1.34
Warrenpoint Town
1.39
Ballinamallard United
1.58
Newington Youth
1.63
Dundela
2.03
Armagh City
2.95
Institute is 0.37 goals better than Ballinamallard United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.21 vs 1.58).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

InstituteInstitute

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D01L11D40W10W00D00D21W10W00DH·LIM14/02A·ANN17/02A·H&W21/02H·ARM28/02H·LOU03/03A·WAR07/03H·QUE14/03A·LOU20/03A·DUN28/03H·WAR04/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.500.570.360.440.62
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.470.470.250.120.670.78
vs Weaker (13)0.540.541.000.670.140.43
Clean sheet %67% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D01L00D01L00D00D10W03L02LH·INS31/01A·DUN14/02A·LOU17/02H·ANN21/02A·WAR24/02A·ARD28/02A·ARM07/03H·H&W14/03A·NEW21/03H·ARD28/03
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.700.330.530.330.87
vs Stronger (24)0.330.710.310.460.361.00
vs Similar (6)0.330.670.501.000.250.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Institute) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Institute over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

InstituteInstitute

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L12L30W20W10W21W01L10W11D00DH·LIM14/02A·ANN17/02A·H&W21/02H·ARM28/02H·LOU03/03A·WAR07/03H·QUE14/03A·LOU20/03A·DUN28/03H·WAR04/04
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.730.790.641.000.81
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.880.821.000.750.780.89
vs Weaker (13)0.920.620.500.501.290.71
Clean sheet %40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L41W00D00D00D12L00D01L01L00DH·INS31/01A·DUN14/02A·LOU17/02H·ANN21/02A·WAR24/02A·ARD28/02A·ARM07/03H·H&W14/03A·NEW21/03H·ARD28/03
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.900.600.930.870.87
vs Stronger (24)0.710.880.540.850.910.91
vs Similar (6)0.831.001.001.500.750.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Institute) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Institute over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.575.2%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.572.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LU (5)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AC (2)
€0m
LU (1)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LU (2)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HW (3)
€0m
LU (2)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
INS wins
3
Draws
1
BU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Institute vs Ballinamallard United · H/A from INS
DateH/AGameScore
31/01/26ABallinamallard United Vs INS0-1
06/12/25ABallinamallard United Vs INS2-2
16/09/25HINS Vs Ballinamallard United0-0
05/04/25ABallinamallard United Vs INS2-0
01/03/25HINS Vs Ballinamallard United1-0
19/10/24HINS Vs Ballinamallard United2-1
14/09/24ABallinamallard United Vs INS1-2
10/02/24ABallinamallard United Vs INS0-0

InstituteInstitute

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/04/26HINS Vs Warrenpoint Town0-0
28/03/26ADundela Vs INS1-2
20/03/26ALoughgall Vs INS1-3
14/03/26HINS Vs Queen's University0-1
07/03/26AWarrenpoint Town Vs INS1-2
03/03/26HINS Vs Loughgall2-0
28/02/26HINS Vs Armagh City6-0
21/02/26AH&W Welders Vs INS1-4
17/02/26AAnnagh United Vs INS3-1
14/02/26HINS Vs Limavady United1-2

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/03/26HBU Vs Ards0-2
21/03/26ANewington Youth Vs BU4-0
14/03/26HBU Vs H&W Welders1-1
07/03/26AArmagh City Vs BU0-0
28/02/26AArds Vs BU2-1
24/02/26AWarrenpoint Town Vs BU1-0
21/02/26HBU Vs Annagh United0-0
17/02/26ALoughgall Vs BU1-0
14/02/26ADundela Vs BU1-4
31/01/26HBU Vs Institute0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Institute
Institute
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWD1.44
HomeLWWLD1.50
AwayLWWWW1.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%38%42%
AVG goals2.982.883.08
Over 1.5 %74%65%83%
Over 2.5 %60%50%71%
Over 3.5 %34%31%38%
Scored1.541.501.58
Conceded1.441.381.50
BTTS58%54%62%
Clean Sheet26%35%17%
Corners---
Cards---
Ballinamallard United
Ballinamallard United
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDLL1.10
HomeLLDDL1.44
AwayLLLDL0.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%36%20%
AVG goals2.662.442.88
Over 1.5 %70%72%68%
Over 2.5 %52%36%68%
Over 3.5 %34%28%40%
Scored1.101.240.96
Conceded1.561.201.92
BTTS44%48%40%
Clean Sheet24%24%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Limavady UnitedLimavady United3881
63%
2.1
6934+35
2.7
68%
47%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.9
-
2Annagh UnitedAnnagh United3872
58%
1.9
5539+16
2.5
71%
45%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.0
-
3H&W WeldersH&W Welders3866
50%
1.7
8748+39
3.6
92%
76%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.3
-
4Newington YouthNewington Youth3860
47%
1.6
7762+15
3.7
87%
74%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.6
-
5InstituteInstitute3859
45%
1.6
5946+13
2.8
71%
61%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.2
-
6QueenQueen's University3857
39%
1.5
5146+5
2.6
76%
39%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.2
-
7LoughgallLoughgall3856
37%
1.5
5038+12
2.3
74%
42%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.0
-
8ArdsArds3852
39%
1.4
5651+5
2.8
74%
55%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
9Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town3841
29%
1.1
4553-8
2.6
58%
39%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
10Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United3838
24%
1.0
4460-16
2.7
68%
55%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
11DundelaDundela3828
13%
0.7
4377-34
3.2
89%
68%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.0
-
12Armagh CityArmagh City3819
11%
0.5
30112-82
3.7
87%
71%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.9
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

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