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Institute vs Ballinamallard United Result & Analysis

Date: 11/08/2026
Time: 18:45
Final 1-2
Institute
Institute
Vs
54%
26%
20%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ballinamallard United
Ballinamallard United
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Institute is likely to emerge victorious in this Northern-Ireland: Championship match against Ballinamallard United. The home side has been on a 4-game winning run, with their last match ending in a 1-0 victory over Strabane Athletic. This momentum suggests a strong performance from Institute, who have scored an average of 1.45 goals and conceded 1.0 per match at home against opponents of similar strength.

Ballinamallard United, however, have struggled on the road, scoring an average of 1.22 goals and conceding 2.0 per match away from home against similar opponents. The expected total goals stands at 2.8, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring at a probability of 12.2%. The model's selection is an Over 1.5 goals, occurring at a probability of 77.6%. The probabilities for the match result are 54% for Institute to win, 26% for a draw, and 20% for Ballinamallard United to win.

Results analysis

Institute's 1-2 loss to Ballinamallard United extends their recent woes, coming off a defeat. A surprising upset unfolded as the away team claimed victory, defying the pre-match favourite, Institute, which had a 54% chance of winning. The model's selection was incorrect, as it chose a home win. The model's selection was not the only one to fall short, as the suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals also hit, with a 77.6% probability. Ballinamallard United's recent form, having come off a win, proved to be the decisive factor in this match, as they scored two goals to Institute's one.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Institute win✗ Miss
53.9%
Avg Implied 58.2% · @ 1.55
Edge
-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.62
Dafabet
1.59
Superbet
1.58
Unibet
1.58
Betano
1.57
Draw✗ Miss
25.6%
Avg Implied 24.1% · @ 3.74
Edge
+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.95
Betano
3.90
Superbet
3.85
Bet365
3.80
Marathonbet
3.80
Ballinamallard United win✓ Hit
20.4%
Avg Implied 17.7% · @ 5.11
Edge
+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
5.75
BetVictor
5.50
1xBet
5.28
Bet365
5.25
Marathonbet
5.20

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

InstituteInstitute

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W21W01L31W21W00D30W31W41W10WH·LOU03/03A·WAR07/03H·QUE14/03A·LOU20/03A·DUN28/03H·WAR04/04H·BAL11/04H·ARD18/04A·ARM25/04A·STR07/08
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.701.131.791.001.621.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)1.601.201.620.881.571.57
vs Weaker (15)1.801.072.001.171.671.00
Clean sheet %33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-612L00D11D04L02L03L01L60W22D01LA·ARD28/02A·ARM07/03H·H&W14/03A·NEW21/03H·ARD28/03A·INS11/04H·WAR18/04H·ARM21/04H·DUN25/04H·NEW08/08
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.531.191.311.211.79
vs Stronger (22)1.051.590.831.251.302.00
vs Similar (8)1.621.382.251.501.001.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Institute) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%7%015%125%222%315%49%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.6%
@ 1.23+3.3%
Under 1.5
22.4%
@ 3.53-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Under
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.58
1xBet
3.58
Superbet
3.45
Betano
3.30
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.5%
@ 1.74-0.5%
Under 2.5
47.5%
@ 1.96+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.80
Superbet
1.78
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.75
BetVictor
1.75
Under
Unibet
2.12
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
1xBet
1.94
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.3%
@ 2.77-2.7%
Under 3.5
69.7%
@ 1.36+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.00
Superbet
2.82
Marathonbet
2.81
1xBet
2.81
Pinnacle
2.80
Under
Unibet
1.45
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.8%
@ 1.77+2.1%
No
46.2%
@ 1.90-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.83
Superbet
1.82
BetVictor
1.80
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
No
Unibet
2.10
William Hil
1.91
Superbet
1.90
1xBet
1.89
BetVictor
1.87

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%@ 6.83+6.0%
1-0
9.9%@ 6.62+3.5%
2-1
9.8%@ 7.33+4.0%
2-0
9.7%@ 7.12+3.8%
0-0
7.3%@ 10.58+3.3%
3-1
5.8%@ 11.75+2.2%
3-0
5.7%@ 11.25+1.9%
1-2 ✓
5.6%@ 14.50+2.7%
Institute goals ↓
Ballinamallard United goals →
01234
07.3%5.2%3.2%1.1%0.3%
19.9%12%5.6%1.9%0.5%
29.7%9.8%5.0%1.7%0.4%
35.7%5.8%2.9%1.0%0.2%
42.5%2.5%1.3%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Institute goals (down), columns = Ballinamallard United goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
Institute is 0.40 points worse than Ballinamallard United in terms of average points per game (0.80 vs 1.20).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
Institute is 0.20 goals worse than Ballinamallard United in terms of goals scored per game (0.80 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
Institute is 0.20 goals worse than Ballinamallard United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.80 vs 1.60).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

InstituteInstitute

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D00D21W10W00D30W10W10W10WH·LOU03/03A·WAR07/03H·QUE14/03A·LOU20/03A·DUN28/03H·WAR04/04H·BAL11/04H·ARD18/04A·ARM25/04A·STR07/08
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.470.860.360.500.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.530.470.380.120.710.86
vs Weaker (15)0.800.471.500.670.330.33
Clean sheet %70% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D10W03L02L03L01L20W01L00DA·ARD28/02A·ARM07/03H·H&W14/03A·NEW21/03H·ARD28/03A·INS11/04H·WAR18/04H·ARM21/04H·DUN25/04H·NEW08/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.730.380.500.361.00
vs Stronger (22)0.320.770.250.420.401.20
vs Similar (8)0.500.620.750.750.250.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Institute) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Institute over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

InstituteInstitute

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W21W01L10W11D00D00D21W31W00DH·LOU03/03A·WAR07/03H·QUE14/03A·LOU20/03A·DUN28/03H·WAR04/04H·BAL11/04H·ARD18/04A·ARM25/04A·STR07/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.670.930.641.120.69
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)1.070.731.250.750.860.71
vs Weaker (15)1.000.600.500.501.330.67
Clean sheet %43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L00D01L01L00D00D00D40W21W01LA·ARD28/02A·ARM07/03H·H&W14/03A·NEW21/03H·ARD28/03A·INS11/04H·WAR18/04H·ARM21/04H·DUN25/04H·NEW08/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.800.810.810.860.79
vs Stronger (22)0.730.820.580.830.900.80
vs Similar (8)1.120.751.500.750.750.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Institute) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Institute over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.6%1.23
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
+3.3%✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (13)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (3)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (9)
€1m
HW (3)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
5
INS wins
2
Draws
1
BU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Institute vs Ballinamallard United · H/A from INS
DateH/AGameScore
11/04/26HINS Vs Ballinamallard United3-0
31/01/26ABallinamallard United Vs INS0-1
06/12/25ABallinamallard United Vs INS2-2
16/09/25HINS Vs Ballinamallard United0-0
05/04/25ABallinamallard United Vs INS2-0
01/03/25HINS Vs Ballinamallard United1-0
19/10/24HINS Vs Ballinamallard United2-1
14/09/24ABallinamallard United Vs INS1-2

InstituteInstitute

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/08/26AStrabane Athletic Vs INS0-1
25/04/26AArmagh City Vs INS1-4
18/04/26HINS Vs Ards3-1
11/04/26HINS Vs Ballinamallard United3-0
04/04/26HINS Vs Warrenpoint Town0-0
28/03/26ADundela Vs INS1-2
20/03/26ALoughgall Vs INS1-3
14/03/26HINS Vs Queen's University0-1
07/03/26AWarrenpoint Town Vs INS1-2
03/03/26HINS Vs Loughgall2-0

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/08/26HBU Vs Newry City AFC0-1
25/04/26HBU Vs Dundela2-2
21/04/26HBU Vs Armagh City6-0
18/04/26HBU Vs Warrenpoint Town0-1
11/04/26AInstitute Vs BU3-0
28/03/26HBU Vs Ards0-2
21/03/26ANewington Youth Vs BU4-0
14/03/26HBU Vs H&W Welders1-1
07/03/26AArmagh City Vs BU0-0
28/02/26AArds Vs BU2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Institute
Institute
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 8 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWW1.64
HomeWLDWW1.65
AwayWWWWW1.62
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%46%50%
AVG goals2.963.002.92
Over 1.5 %72%65%79%
Over 2.5 %62%58%67%
Over 3.5 %36%35%38%
Scored1.641.651.62
Conceded1.321.351.29
BTTS54%50%58%
Clean Sheet30%38%21%
Corners---
Cards---
Ballinamallard United
Ballinamallard United
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWDL1.04
HomeLLWDL1.27
AwayLLDLL0.79
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%31%21%
AVG goals2.542.312.79
Over 1.5 %66%65%67%
Over 2.5 %48%31%67%
Over 3.5 %28%23%33%
Scored1.101.191.00
Conceded1.441.121.79
BTTS40%38%42%
Clean Sheet26%27%25%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Newington YouthNewington Youth513
80%
2.6
145+9
3.8
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.0
-
2H&W WeldersH&W Welders512
80%
2.4
93+6
2.4
80%
60%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.6
-
3Glenavon FCGlenavon FC510
60%
2.0
148+6
4.4
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0012.81.6
-
4QueenQueen's University510
60%
2.0
115+6
3.2
100%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
5Annagh UnitedAnnagh United510
60%
2.0
129+3
4.2
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.8
-
6LoughgallLoughgall59
40%
1.8
107+3
3.4
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.4
-
7Newry City AFCNewry City AFC59
60%
1.8
79-2
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
8ArdsArds57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
9Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
10Moyola ParkMoyola Park57
40%
1.4
67-1
2.6
80%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
11Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United56
40%
1.2
58-3
2.6
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
12InstituteInstitute54
20%
0.8
49-5
2.6
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
13DundelaDundela53
0%
0.6
710-3
3.4
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.0
-
14Strabane AthleticStrabane Athletic53
20%
0.6
610-4
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
15Armagh CityArmagh City52
0%
0.4
37-4
2.0
60%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.4
-
16RathfrilandRathfriland50
0%
0.0
516-11
4.2
100%
100%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.2
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

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