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Institute vs H&W Welders Result & Analysis

Date: 09/09/2023
Time: 14:00
Final 2-1
Institute
Institute
Vs
37%
29%
33%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
H&W Welders
H&W Welders
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Institute win✓ Hit
37.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders win✗ Miss
33.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

InstituteInstitute

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-323L13L11D02L10W20W01L13L10W11DA·KNO08/04A·H&W11/04H·DER15/04H·NEW22/04A·BAL29/04H·KNO05/08A·POR12/08H·NEW19/08H·BAL26/08A·BAN02/09
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.601.401.131.272.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)1.111.781.001.331.222.22
vs Weaker (12)1.671.332.000.831.331.83
Clean sheet %17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (H&W Welders) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

H&W WeldersH&W Welders

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L31W54W23L32W42W20W23L11D10WA·DER08/04H·INS11/04H·NEW15/04A·BAL22/04H·KNO29/04H·BAL05/08A·NEW12/08H·DER19/08A·ARD25/08H·POR02/09
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.171.502.711.591.461.38
vs Stronger (15)2.001.402.572.141.500.75
vs Similar (10)2.401.302.621.121.502.00
vs Weaker (5)2.202.203.501.501.332.67
Clean sheet %27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Institute) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%314%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.1%
Under 1.5
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.3%
Under 2.5
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.8%
Under 3.5
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.7%
No
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
0-0
9.3%
1-0
9.2%
0-1
8.5%
2-1 ✓
8.3%
1-2
7.8%
2-0
6.8%
0-2
5.9%
Institute goals ↓
H&W Welders goals →
01234
09.3%8.5%5.9%2.4%0.7%
19.2%14%7.8%3.2%1.0%
26.8%8.3%5.1%2.1%0.6%
33.0%3.6%2.2%0.9%0.3%
41.0%1.2%0.7%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Institute goals (down), columns = H&W Welders goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Portadown
1.87
Institute
1.82
Annagh United
1.79
Bangor
1.79
Dundela
1.76
Ballyclare Comrades
1.61
H&W Welders
1.47
Newington Youth
1.37
Ballinamallard United
1.34
Armagh City
1.00
Ards
0.97
Dergview
0.72
Knockbreda
0.47
Institute is 0.34 points better than H&W Welders in terms of average points per game (1.82 vs 1.47).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Bangor
2.03
Dundela
1.95
Portadown
1.95
Ballyclare Comrades
1.92
H&W Welders
1.84
Newington Youth
1.71
Annagh United
1.61
Ards
1.58
Institute
1.58
Ballinamallard United
1.34
Dergview
1.07
Armagh City
1.00
Knockbreda
0.89
Institute is 0.26 goals worse than H&W Welders in terms of goals scored per game (1.58 vs 1.84).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Armagh City
1.00
Institute
1.13
Bangor
1.16
Annagh United
1.32
Ballinamallard United
1.34
Portadown
1.39
Dundela
1.58
Ballyclare Comrades
1.58
H&W Welders
1.66
Newington Youth
1.79
Ards
1.82
Dergview
2.02
Knockbreda
2.63
Institute is 0.53 goals better than H&W Welders in terms of goals conceded per game (1.13 vs 1.66).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

InstituteInstitute

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W10W10W00D10W00D00D13L00D00DA·KNO08/04A·H&W11/04H·DER15/04H·NEW22/04A·BAL29/04H·KNO05/08A·POR12/08H·NEW19/08H·BAL26/08A·BAN02/09
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.630.670.470.600.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.500.780.560.670.440.89
vs Weaker (12)0.830.420.830.170.830.67
Clean sheet %63% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (H&W Welders) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

H&W WeldersH&W Welders

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L23L12L21W01L10W21W10W00DA·DER08/04H·INS11/04H·NEW15/04A·BAL22/04H·KNO29/04H·BAL05/08A·NEW12/08H·DER19/08A·ARD25/08H·POR02/09
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.671.000.710.540.62
vs Stronger (15)0.600.600.710.860.500.38
vs Similar (10)1.100.601.250.620.500.50
vs Weaker (5)0.801.001.000.500.671.33
Clean sheet %50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Institute) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Institute over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

InstituteInstitute

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L03L01L02L00D20W01L00D10W11DA·KNO08/04A·H&W11/04H·DER15/04H·NEW22/04A·BAL29/04H·KNO05/08A·POR12/08H·NEW19/08H·BAL26/08A·BAN02/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.970.730.670.671.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.611.000.440.670.781.33
vs Weaker (12)0.830.921.170.670.501.17
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (H&W Welders) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

H&W WeldersH&W Welders

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L30W31W11D11D41W10W02L01L10WA·DER08/04H·INS11/04H·NEW15/04A·BAL22/04H·KNO29/04H·BAL05/08A·NEW12/08H·DER19/08A·ARD25/08H·POR02/09
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.370.831.710.880.920.77
vs Stronger (15)1.400.801.861.291.000.38
vs Similar (10)1.300.701.380.501.001.50
vs Weaker (5)1.401.202.501.000.671.33
Clean sheet %47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Institute) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Institute over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.575.2%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.573.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAN (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
POR (6)
€1m
BAN (4)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAN (5)
€1m
POR (3)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAN (11)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
HW (3)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
INS wins
0
Draws
3
HW wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Institute vs H&W Welders · H/A from INS
DateH/AGameScore
11/04/23AH&W Welders Vs INS3-1
18/03/23HINS Vs H&W Welders0-1
19/11/22HINS Vs H&W Welders1-0
03/09/22AH&W Welders Vs INS5-0

InstituteInstitute

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/09/23ABangor Vs INS1-1
26/08/23HINS Vs Ballyclare Comrades1-0
19/08/23HINS Vs Newington Youth1-3
12/08/23APortadown Vs INS1-0
05/08/23HINS Vs Knockbreda2-0
29/04/23ABallinamallard United Vs INS0-1
22/04/23HINS Vs Newington Youth0-2
15/04/23HINS Vs Dergview1-1
11/04/23AH&W Welders Vs INS3-1
08/04/23AKnockbreda Vs INS3-2

H&W WeldersH&W Welders

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/09/23HHW Vs Portadown1-0
25/08/23AArds Vs HW1-1
19/08/23HHW Vs Dergview2-3
12/08/23ANewington Youth Vs HW0-2
05/08/23HHW Vs Ballinamallard United4-2
29/04/23HHW Vs Knockbreda3-2
22/04/23ABallinamallard United Vs HW3-2
15/04/23HHW Vs Newington Youth5-4
11/04/23HHW Vs Institute3-1
08/04/23ADergview Vs HW2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Institute
Institute
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLWD1.05
HomeDLWLW1.43
AwayLLWLD0.68
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%38%18%
AVG goals2.862.483.23
Over 1.5 %79%86%73%
Over 2.5 %42%24%59%
Over 3.5 %26%14%36%
Scored1.281.381.18
Conceded1.581.102.05
BTTS53%48%59%
Clean Sheet19%29%9%
Corners---
Cards---
H&W Welders
H&W Welders
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLDW1.51
HomeWWWLW1.83
AwayWLLWD1.15
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %47%57%35%
AVG goals3.493.873.05
Over 1.5 %79%78%80%
Over 2.5 %67%70%65%
Over 3.5 %47%57%35%
Scored1.842.261.35
Conceded1.651.611.70
BTTS56%61%50%
Clean Sheet26%22%30%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1PortadownPortadown3871
58%
1.9
7453+21
3.3
87%
68%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.91.4
-
2InstituteInstitute3869
53%
1.8
6043+17
2.7
71%
50%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.1
-
3BangorBangor3868
53%
1.8
7744+33
3.2
87%
76%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0112.01.2
-
4Annagh UnitedAnnagh United3868
53%
1.8
6150+11
2.9
74%
55%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.3
-
5DundelaDundela3867
55%
1.8
7460+14
3.5
82%
71%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.6
-
6Ballyclare ComradesBallyclare Comrades3861
47%
1.6
7360+13
3.5
89%
76%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.6
-
7H&W WeldersH&W Welders3856
45%
1.5
7063+7
3.5
89%
76%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.7
-
8Newington YouthNewington Youth3852
42%
1.4
6568-3
3.5
97%
76%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.8
-
9Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United3851
39%
1.3
5151+0
2.7
71%
58%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.3
-
10ArdsArds3837
24%
1.0
6069-9
3.4
84%
68%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
-
11DergviewDergview4029
15%
0.7
4381-38
3.1
85%
57%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.0
-
12KnockbredaKnockbreda3818
13%
0.5
34100-66
3.5
95%
68%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.6
-
13Armagh CityArmagh City22
0%
1.0
22+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

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