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Institute vs Loughgall Result & Analysis

Date: 15/08/2026
Time: 14:00
Final 0-0
Institute
Institute
Vs
38%
30%
32%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Loughgall
Loughgall
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

This highly anticipated matchup between Institute and Loughgall in the Northern-Ireland: Championship is finely balanced, with both teams boasting recent form that could sway the outcome. Institute is on a 4-game winning run, having last defeated Strabane Athletic 1-0, while Loughgall comes into this match off a win against Rathfriland, albeit with a mixed recent record.

The model predicts Institute to win, with a 40% chance of victory, 30% chance of a draw, and 30% chance of Loughgall emerging victorious. The expected total number of goals is 2.4, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The model's selection is the Home win, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring 14.3% of the time.

Institute has a strong home record, scoring an average of 1.45 goals and conceding 1 goal per match against similar opponents. Loughgall, meanwhile, averages 0.89 goals scored and 1 goal conceded when playing away against similar opponents.

The model's selections are Under 3.5, occurring 77.8% of the time, and Over 1.5, occurring 70.5% of the time. The home win percentage is 40%, the draw percentage is 30%, and the away win percentage is 30%.

Results analysis

Institute's home draw extends their run of consecutive draws to three games, following a 0-0 stalemate against Loughgall. The actual result was a draw, defying the predicted outcome. The most likely score was 1-1, but that didn't materialize. The model's selection, a home win, was incorrect. The model's call was wrong as the favourite, Institute, failed to come through. The model's selection, a home win, had a 38% chance of winning. The suggested picks included an Under 3.5 goal total, which hit with a 77.6% probability, and an Over 1.5 goal total, which missed with a 70.7% probability.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Institute win✗ Miss
38.3%
Avg Implied 31.7% · @ 2.86
Edge
+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.95
Betano
2.92
1xBet
2.89
BetVictor
2.88
Marathonbet
2.83
Draw✓ Hit
30.1%
Avg Implied 27.2% · @ 3.33
Edge
+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.50
Betano
3.45
BetVictor
3.40
Dafabet
3.40
1xBet
3.30
Loughgall win✗ Miss
31.6%
Avg Implied 41.2% · @ 2.20
Edge
-9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.27
1xBet
2.21
William Hil
2.20
BetVictor
2.20
Marathonbet
2.19

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

InstituteInstitute

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W01L31W21W00D30W31W41W10W12LA·WAR07/03H·QUE14/03A·LOU20/03A·DUN28/03H·WAR04/04H·BAL11/04H·ARD18/04A·ARM25/04A·STR07/08H·BAL11/08
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.701.131.731.071.671.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)1.601.201.620.881.571.57
vs Weaker (15)1.801.071.861.291.750.88
Clean sheet %33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Loughgall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LoughgallLoughgall

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L11D13L01L11D20W00D12L31W22DH·ARD10/03H·ARM16/03H·INS20/03H·LIM28/03A·ANN04/04H·H&W11/04A·QUE18/04A·NEW24/04A·RAT08/08H·NEW11/08
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.370.971.611.001.000.92
vs Stronger (6)2.000.672.750.750.500.50
vs Similar (16)1.191.251.331.331.001.14
vs Weaker (8)1.250.621.200.601.330.67
Clean sheet %33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Institute) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
70.7%
@ 1.21-4.7%
Under 1.5
29.3%
@ 3.71+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
Under
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.78
1xBet
3.78
Betano
3.30
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.3%
@ 1.73-9.9%
Under 2.5
56.7%
@ 1.97+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.74
BetVictor
1.73
Pinnacle
1.72
Under
Bet365
2.05
BetVictor
2.00
Pinnacle
1.97
Marathonbet
1.96
1xBet
1.96
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.4%
@ 2.76-10.6%
Under 3.5
77.6%
@ 1.36+10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.81
Marathonbet
2.81
Pinnacle
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.67
Under
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.2%
@ 1.60-7.0%
No
49.8%
@ 2.14+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.67
BetVictor
1.60
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.58
No
BetVictor
2.20
1xBet
2.19
Marathonbet
2.15
William Hil
2.15
Bet365
2.10

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%@ 6.38+7.4%
0-0 ✓
10.3%@ 11.50+6.5%
1-0
10.1%@ 10.25+5.9%
0-1
8.9%@ 8.62+3.8%
2-1
8.3%@ 9.88+3.9%
1-2
7.4%@ 8.75+2.4%
2-0
7.3%@ 14.25+4.2%
0-2
5.8%@ 11.38+2.0%
Institute goals ↓
Loughgall goals →
01234
010%8.9%5.8%2.2%0.6%
110%14%7.4%2.8%0.8%
27.3%8.3%4.7%1.8%0.5%
33.1%3.5%2.0%0.8%0.2%
41.0%1.1%0.6%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Institute goals (down), columns = Loughgall goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
Institute is 1.00 points worse than Loughgall in terms of average points per game (0.80 vs 1.80).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
Institute is 1.20 goals worse than Loughgall in terms of goals scored per game (0.80 vs 2.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
Institute is 0.40 goals worse than Loughgall in terms of goals conceded per game (1.80 vs 1.40).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

InstituteInstitute

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D21W10W00D30W10W10W10W00DA·WAR07/03H·QUE14/03A·LOU20/03A·DUN28/03H·WAR04/04H·BAL11/04H·ARD18/04A·ARM25/04A·STR07/08H·BAL11/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.400.800.330.530.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.530.470.380.120.710.86
vs Weaker (15)0.800.331.290.570.380.12
Clean sheet %73% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Loughgall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LoughgallLoughgall

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D12L01L10W10W00D11D10W12LH·ARD10/03H·ARM16/03H·INS20/03H·LIM28/03A·ANN04/04H·H&W11/04A·QUE18/04A·NEW24/04A·RAT08/08H·NEW11/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.470.610.440.580.50
vs Stronger (6)0.670.170.750.250.500.00
vs Similar (16)0.620.750.670.670.570.86
vs Weaker (8)0.500.120.400.200.670.00
Clean sheet %63% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Institute) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Institute over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

InstituteInstitute

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W01L10W11D00D00D21W31W00D12LA·WAR07/03H·QUE14/03A·LOU20/03A·DUN28/03H·WAR04/04H·BAL11/04H·ARD18/04A·ARM25/04A·STR07/08H·BAL11/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.730.930.731.130.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)1.070.731.250.750.860.71
vs Weaker (15)1.000.730.570.711.380.75
Clean sheet %40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Loughgall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LoughgallLoughgall

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L11D01L00D01L10W00D01L21W10WH·ARD10/03H·ARM16/03H·INS20/03H·LIM28/03A·ANN04/04H·H&W11/04A·QUE18/04A·NEW24/04A·RAT08/08H·NEW11/08
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.501.000.560.420.42
vs Stronger (6)1.330.502.000.500.000.50
vs Similar (16)0.560.500.670.670.430.29
vs Weaker (8)0.750.500.800.400.670.67
Clean sheet %53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Institute) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Institute over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.577.6%1.36
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
+10.6%✓ Hit
Over 1.570.7%1.21
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
--4.7%✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (13)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (3)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (9)
€1m
HW (3)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
2
INS wins
1
Draws
3
LOU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Institute vs Loughgall · H/A from INS
DateH/AGameScore
20/03/26ALoughgall Vs INS1-3
03/03/26HINS Vs Loughgall2-0
08/08/25ALoughgall Vs INS2-0
11/02/23ALoughgall Vs INS5-1
10/12/22HINS Vs Loughgall1-1
01/10/22ALoughgall Vs INS1-0

InstituteInstitute

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/08/26HINS Vs Ballinamallard United1-2
07/08/26AStrabane Athletic Vs INS0-1
25/04/26AArmagh City Vs INS1-4
18/04/26HINS Vs Ards3-1
11/04/26HINS Vs Ballinamallard United3-0
04/04/26HINS Vs Warrenpoint Town0-0
28/03/26ADundela Vs INS1-2
20/03/26ALoughgall Vs INS1-3
14/03/26HINS Vs Queen's University0-1
07/03/26AWarrenpoint Town Vs INS1-2

LoughgallLoughgall

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/08/26HLOU Vs Newington Youth2-2
08/08/26ARathfriland Vs LOU1-3
24/04/26ANewington Youth Vs LOU2-1
18/04/26AQueen's University Vs LOU0-0
11/04/26HLOU Vs H&W Welders2-0
04/04/26AAnnagh United Vs LOU1-1
28/03/26HLOU Vs Limavady United0-1
20/03/26HLOU Vs Institute1-3
16/03/26HLOU Vs Armagh City1-1
10/03/26HLOU Vs Ards0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Institute
Institute
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWL1.58
HomeLDWWL1.59
AwayWWWWW1.57
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%44%48%
AVG goals2.943.002.87
Over 1.5 %72%67%78%
Over 2.5 %62%59%65%
Over 3.5 %34%33%35%
Scored1.601.631.57
Conceded1.341.371.30
BTTS54%52%57%
Clean Sheet30%37%22%
Corners---
Cards---
Loughgall
Loughgall
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWD1.36
HomeDLLWD1.54
AwayLDDLW1.14
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%43%23%
AVG goals2.602.752.41
Over 1.5 %76%82%68%
Over 2.5 %48%54%41%
Over 3.5 %28%29%27%
Scored1.321.461.14
Conceded1.281.291.27
BTTS60%61%59%
Clean Sheet26%25%27%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Newington YouthNewington Youth513
80%
2.6
145+9
3.8
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.0
-
2H&W WeldersH&W Welders512
80%
2.4
93+6
2.4
80%
60%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.6
-
3Glenavon FCGlenavon FC510
60%
2.0
148+6
4.4
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0012.81.6
-
4QueenQueen's University510
60%
2.0
115+6
3.2
100%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
5Annagh UnitedAnnagh United510
60%
2.0
129+3
4.2
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.8
-
6LoughgallLoughgall59
40%
1.8
107+3
3.4
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.4
-
7Newry City AFCNewry City AFC59
60%
1.8
79-2
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
8ArdsArds57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
9Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
10Moyola ParkMoyola Park57
40%
1.4
67-1
2.6
80%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
11Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United56
40%
1.2
58-3
2.6
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
12InstituteInstitute54
20%
0.8
49-5
2.6
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
13DundelaDundela53
0%
0.6
710-3
3.4
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.0
-
14Strabane AthleticStrabane Athletic53
20%
0.6
610-4
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
15Armagh CityArmagh City52
0%
0.4
37-4
2.0
60%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.4
-
16RathfrilandRathfriland50
0%
0.0
516-11
4.2
100%
100%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.2
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

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