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Institute vs Newington Youth Result & Analysis

Date: 30/12/2025
Time: 19:45
Final 3-3
Institute
Institute
Vs
37%
26%
36%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Newington Youth
Newington Youth
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Institute win✗ Miss
37.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
26.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth win✗ Miss
36.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

InstituteInstitute

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D30W21W01L10W14L22D04L12L01LH·DUN18/10A·ARD25/10H·ARM01/11A·WAR08/11H·ANN15/11A·NEW29/11A·BAL06/12H·H&W13/12A·QUE20/12A·LIM26/12
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.631.381.691.291.57
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.311.811.401.701.172.00
vs Weaker (14)1.361.431.331.671.381.25
Clean sheet %23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Newington Youth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Newington YouthNewington Youth

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L51W22D21W23L22D33D41W15L20WA·DUN11/10H·ARM18/10A·LOU25/10H·H&W01/11A·LIM08/11H·DUN15/11A·BAL21/11H·INS29/11H·ANN20/12H·QUE26/12
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.171.732.401.531.931.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)1.681.841.882.121.551.64
vs Weaker (11)3.001.553.000.863.002.75
Clean sheet %20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Institute) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%23%6%013%123%222%317%410%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.4%
Under 1.5
18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.0%
Under 2.5
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
35.6%
Under 3.5
64.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.7%
No
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
8.3%
1-0
6.3%
2-2
6.3%
0-1
6.2%
0-0
6.0%
2-0
5.7%
Institute goals ↓
Newington Youth goals →
01234
06.0%6.2%5.5%2.7%1.0%
16.3%12%8.3%4.1%1.5%
25.7%8.5%6.3%3.2%1.2%
32.9%4.3%3.2%1.6%0.6%
41.1%1.6%1.2%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Institute goals (down), columns = Newington Youth goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Limavady United
2.13
Annagh United
1.89
H&W Welders
1.74
Newington Youth
1.58
Institute
1.55
Queen's University
1.50
Loughgall
1.47
Ards
1.37
Warrenpoint Town
1.08
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Dundela
0.74
Armagh City
0.50
Institute is 0.03 points worse than Newington Youth in terms of average points per game (1.55 vs 1.58).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
H&W Welders
2.29
Newington Youth
2.03
Limavady United
1.82
Institute
1.55
Ards
1.47
Annagh United
1.45
Queen's University
1.34
Loughgall
1.32
Warrenpoint Town
1.18
Ballinamallard United
1.16
Dundela
1.13
Armagh City
0.79
Institute is 0.47 goals worse than Newington Youth in terms of goals scored per game (1.55 vs 2.03).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Limavady United
0.89
Loughgall
1.00
Annagh United
1.03
Queen's University
1.21
Institute
1.21
H&W Welders
1.26
Ards
1.34
Warrenpoint Town
1.39
Ballinamallard United
1.58
Newington Youth
1.63
Dundela
2.03
Armagh City
2.95
Institute is 0.42 goals better than Newington Youth in terms of goals conceded per game (1.21 vs 1.63).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

InstituteInstitute

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W10W00D10W03L00D03L11D00DH·DUN18/10A·ARD25/10H·ARM01/11A·WAR08/11H·ANN15/11A·NEW29/11A·BAL06/12H·H&W13/12A·QUE20/12A·LIM26/12
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.770.880.810.430.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.690.810.800.800.500.83
vs Weaker (14)0.640.711.000.830.380.62
Clean sheet %53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Newington Youth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Newington YouthNewington Youth

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D21W12L21W11D11D01L30W13L10WA·DUN11/10H·ARM18/10A·LOU25/10H·H&W01/11A·LIM08/11H·DUN15/11A·BAL21/11H·INS29/11H·ANN20/12H·QUE26/12
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.871.270.730.731.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.890.741.120.880.730.64
vs Weaker (11)1.181.091.430.570.752.00
Clean sheet %40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Institute) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Institute over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

InstituteInstitute

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D20W11D01L00D11D22D01L01L01LH·DUN18/10A·ARD25/10H·ARM01/11A·WAR08/11H·ANN15/11A·NEW29/11A·BAL06/12H·H&W13/12A·QUE20/12A·LIM26/12
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.870.500.880.860.86
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.621.000.600.900.671.17
vs Weaker (14)0.710.710.330.831.000.62
Clean sheet %33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Newington Youth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Newington YouthNewington Youth

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L30W10W00D12L11D32W11D02L10WA·DUN11/10H·ARM18/10A·LOU25/10H·H&W01/11A·LIM08/11H·DUN15/11A·BAL21/11H·INS29/11H·ANN20/12H·QUE26/12
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.871.130.801.200.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.791.110.751.250.821.00
vs Weaker (11)1.820.451.570.292.250.75
Clean sheet %43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Institute) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Institute over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LU (5)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AC (2)
€0m
LU (1)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LU (2)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HW (3)
€0m
LU (2)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
INS wins
1
Draws
4
NY wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Institute vs Newington Youth · H/A from INS
DateH/AGameScore
29/11/25ANewington Youth Vs INS4-1
20/09/25HINS Vs Newington Youth0-1
01/04/25HINS Vs Newington Youth3-3
30/12/24ANewington Youth Vs INS2-0
26/10/24ANewington Youth Vs INS0-1
21/09/24HINS Vs Newington Youth4-0
24/02/24HINS Vs Newington Youth2-0
16/12/23ANewington Youth Vs INS2-1

InstituteInstitute

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/12/25ALimavady United Vs INS1-0
20/12/25AQueen's University Vs INS2-1
13/12/25HINS Vs H&W Welders0-4
06/12/25ABallinamallard United Vs INS2-2
29/11/25ANewington Youth Vs INS4-1
15/11/25HINS Vs Annagh United1-0
08/11/25AWarrenpoint Town Vs INS1-0
01/11/25HINS Vs Armagh City2-1
25/10/25AArds Vs INS0-3
18/10/25HINS Vs Dundela1-1

Newington YouthNewington Youth

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/12/25HNY Vs Queen's University2-0
20/12/25HNY Vs Annagh United1-5
29/11/25HNY Vs Institute4-1
21/11/25ABallinamallard United Vs NY3-3
15/11/25HNY Vs Dundela2-2
08/11/25ALimavady United Vs NY3-2
01/11/25HNY Vs H&W Welders2-1
25/10/25ALoughgall Vs NY2-2
18/10/25HNY Vs Armagh City5-1
11/10/25ADundela Vs NY1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Institute
Institute
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLL1.30
HomeWDWWL1.54
AwayLLDLL1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%38%29%
AVG goals2.962.733.21
Over 1.5 %76%65%88%
Over 2.5 %56%46%67%
Over 3.5 %36%31%42%
Scored1.401.351.46
Conceded1.561.381.75
BTTS58%58%58%
Clean Sheet26%35%17%
Corners---
Cards---
Newington Youth
Newington Youth
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWLW1.32
HomeWDWLW1.60
AwayWLDLD1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%48%24%
AVG goals3.383.363.40
Over 1.5 %80%88%72%
Over 2.5 %64%68%60%
Over 3.5 %50%44%56%
Scored1.661.801.52
Conceded1.721.561.88
BTTS64%60%68%
Clean Sheet22%24%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Limavady UnitedLimavady United3881
63%
2.1
6934+35
2.7
68%
47%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.9
-
2Annagh UnitedAnnagh United3872
58%
1.9
5539+16
2.5
71%
45%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.0
-
3H&W WeldersH&W Welders3866
50%
1.7
8748+39
3.6
92%
76%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.3
-
4Newington YouthNewington Youth3860
47%
1.6
7762+15
3.7
87%
74%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.6
-
5InstituteInstitute3859
45%
1.6
5946+13
2.8
71%
61%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.2
-
6QueenQueen's University3857
39%
1.5
5146+5
2.6
76%
39%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.2
-
7LoughgallLoughgall3856
37%
1.5
5038+12
2.3
74%
42%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.0
-
8ArdsArds3852
39%
1.4
5651+5
2.8
74%
55%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
9Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town3841
29%
1.1
4553-8
2.6
58%
39%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
10Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United3838
24%
1.0
4460-16
2.7
68%
55%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
11DundelaDundela3828
13%
0.7
4377-34
3.2
89%
68%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.0
-
12Armagh CityArmagh City3819
11%
0.5
30112-82
3.7
87%
71%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.9
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

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