Institute vs Newry City AFC Result & Analysis

The model favours a home win, with a 44 % chance for Institute, a 28 % chance for a draw and a 28 % chance for New ry City AFC. The expected total is 2.6 goals, with a 26 % probability that exactly two goals will be scored. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.4 % chance. Institute, playing at home against a weaker opponent, averages 1.75 goals scored and 0.88 conceded. New ry City AFC, on the road against a stronger side, averages 0.86 goals scored and 2.43 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.4 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.0 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.3 %), Under 6.5 (98.1 %), Away under 3.5 goals (97.1 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.0 %), Under 5.5 (94.8 %) and Home under 3.5 goals (93.5 %). The recent form shows both teams coming off defeats, with Institute losing 1-4 to Queen’s University and New ry City AFC losing 0-3 to Warrenpoint Town.

The upset came early, as the pre-match favourite, Home win, failed to materialise. The final score was 1-3, giving Newry City AFC the away win. The model had set a 44% probability for a home victory, 28% each for a draw and an away win. The model’s call was wrong. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.4%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.1%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 98.6%, Under 6.5 hit at 98.1%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 97.1%, Under 5.5 hit at 94.8%, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 93.5%, and Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 92.9%. The Institute’s recent form, after two straight defeats, ended with a loss, while Newry City AFC, coming off a win, secured the victory.