Inter Club d'Escaldes are the clear favourites, with the model assigning an 84 % chance of a home win. Their recent 2-2 draw against Drita shows they are still finding rhythm, but the home side’s average of 2.22 goals scored and only 0.67 conceded at home against weaker opposition underpins this confidence. Carroi, on the other hand, has struggled away, averaging a mere 0.14 goals scored and conceding 3.0 against stronger opponents, and their last win 2-1 at Inter Club d'Escaldes does little to change that narrative.
The model predicts an average of 3.5 goals, with the most likely total being 3 at a 22 % probability. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0 for Inter Club d'Escaldes, with a 13 % chance. Home win probability sits at 84 %, draw at 12 %, and away win at 4 %.
Suggested picks include: Away under 3.5 goals (99.7 %), Home +2 handicap (99.0 %), Away under 2.5 goals (98.0 %), Under 7.5 (97.4 %), Home or Draw (95.8 %), Home +1 handicap (95.8 %), Home over 0.5 goals (94.6 %), and Under 6.5 (93.6 %). All selections carry the stated probabilities, with no other outcomes considered.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Inter Club d'Escaldes win
84.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
11.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Carroi win
4.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Inter Club d'Escaldes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.03
1.88
0.62
2.00
1.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.73
1.27
1.43
0.57
2.00
1.88
vs Weaker (15)
2.13
0.80
2.22
0.67
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Carroi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Carroi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
2.00
0.87
1.40
0.73
2.60
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
2.50
0.71
2.00
0.14
3.00
vs Similar (14)
1.21
1.79
1.17
1.17
1.25
2.25
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter Club d'Escaldes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
86.7%
Under 1.5
13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
67.6%
Under 2.5
32.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
45.9%
Under 3.5
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
41.5%
No
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
13.1%
3-0
12.7%
4-0
9.3%
1-0
8.5%
2-1
7.4%
3-1
7.2%
1-1
5.6%
5-0
5.4%
Inter Club d'Escaldes goals ↓
Carroi goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.6%
1.2%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
1
8.5%
5.6%
1.5%
0.3%
0.0%
2
13%
7.4%
2.1%
0.4%
0.1%
3
13%
7.2%
2.1%
0.4%
0.1%
4
9.3%
5.3%
1.5%
0.3%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Inter Club d'Escaldes goals (down), columns = Carroi goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter Club d'Escaldes
2.25
Ranger's
2.00
FC Santa Coloma
1.83
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.42
Casa de Portugal
1.22
Penya Encarnada
1.00
Ordino
0.92
Carroi
0.72
Esperança d'Andorra
0.65
Sporting Escaldes
0.00
Inter Club d'Escaldes is 1.53 points better than Carroi in terms of average points per game (2.25 vs 0.72).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter Club d'Escaldes
1.96
Ranger's
1.92
FC Santa Coloma
1.88
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.29
Casa de Portugal
1.16
Ordino
1.12
Penya Encarnada
0.79
Esperança d'Andorra
0.77
Carroi
0.60
Sporting Escaldes
0.50
Inter Club d'Escaldes is 1.36 goals better than Carroi in terms of goals scored per game (1.96 vs 0.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Santa Coloma
0.83
Ranger's
0.92
Inter Club d'Escaldes
1.00
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.08
Casa de Portugal
1.44
Penya Encarnada
1.71
Ordino
1.75
Esperança d'Andorra
1.85
Carroi
2.20
Sporting Escaldes
2.50
Inter Club d'Escaldes is 1.20 goals better than Carroi in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 2.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Inter Club d'Escaldes or Draw
95.8%
Avg Implied -
84%
12%
4%
covers Inter Club d'Escaldes + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Inter Club d'Escaldes or Carroi
88.3%
Avg Implied -
84%
12%
4%
covers Inter Club d'Escaldes + Carroi
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Carroi
15.9%
Avg Implied -
84%
12%
4%
covers Draw + Carroi
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Inter Club d'Escaldes over/under 0.5
Over
94.6%
Under
5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Club d'Escaldes over/under 1.5
Over
78.7%
Under
21.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Club d'Escaldes over/under 2.5
Over
55.7%
Under
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Club d'Escaldes over/under 3.5
Over
33.3%
Under
66.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carroi over/under 0.5
Over
43.4%
Under
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carroi over/under 1.5
Over
11.2%
Under
88.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carroi over/under 2.5
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carroi over/under 3.5
Over
0.3%
Under
99.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Inter Club d'Escaldes, so a minus line means Inter Club d'Escaldes give that many goals of a start and Carroi receive them. At -1, Inter Club d'Escaldes must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Inter Club d'Escaldes win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Inter Club d'Escaldes)
Inter Club d'Escaldes -2
43.9%
Draw -2
21.9%
Carroi +2
34.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Inter Club d'Escaldes)
Inter Club d'Escaldes -1
65.9%
Draw -1
18.2%
Carroi +1
15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Inter Club d'Escaldes)
Inter Club d'Escaldes +1
95.8%
Draw +1
3.2%
Carroi -1
1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Inter Club d'Escaldes)
Inter Club d'Escaldes +2
99.0%
Draw +2
0.8%
Carroi -2
0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Inter Club d'Escaldes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.40
0.75
0.19
0.93
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.67
0.47
0.57
0.29
0.75
0.62
vs Weaker (15)
1.00
0.33
0.89
0.11
1.17
0.67
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Carroi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Carroi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.73
0.40
0.53
0.53
0.93
vs Stronger (12)
0.08
1.17
0.17
1.00
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.50
0.43
0.29
0.89
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter Club d'Escaldes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
81.6%
Under 0.5
18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
55.7%
Under 1.5
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
28.0%
Under 2.5
72.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Inter Club d'Escaldes over/under 0.5 HT
Over
76.3%
Under
23.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Club d'Escaldes over/under 1.5 HT
Over
56.0%
Under
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Club d'Escaldes over/under 2.5 HT
Over
23.6%
Under
76.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carroi over/under 0.5 HT
Over
23.2%
Under
76.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carroi over/under 1.5 HT
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carroi over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.6%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Inter Club d'Escaldes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.63
1.12
0.44
1.07
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.07
0.80
0.86
0.29
1.25
1.25
vs Weaker (15)
1.13
0.47
1.33
0.56
0.83
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Carroi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Carroi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.17
0.73
0.87
0.73
1.47
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
1.42
0.67
1.17
0.17
1.67
vs Similar (16)
1.00
1.06
0.86
0.71
1.11
1.33
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter Club d'Escaldes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
87.7%
Under 0.5
12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
66.9%
Under 1.5
33.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
36.4%
Under 2.5
63.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Inter Club d'Escaldes over/under 0.5 2H
Over
82.3%
Under
17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Club d'Escaldes over/under 1.5 2H
Over
48.5%
Under
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Club d'Escaldes over/under 2.5 2H
Over
25.3%
Under
74.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carroi over/under 0.5 2H
Over
30.4%
Under
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carroi over/under 1.5 2H
Over
5.8%
Under
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carroi over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 2H goals
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 0.5 HT goals
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 HT goals
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ICD (25)
€4m
RAN (24)
€4m
ACD (25)
€3m
FSC (28)
€3m
PE (26)
€3m
CAR (21)
€2m
ED (16)
€2m
ORD (22)
€2m
SE (1)
€0m
Inter Club d'Escaldes's squad is €2m more valuable than Carroi's (€4m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ICD (9)
€2m
FSC (10)
€2m
RAN (8)
€1m
ORD (6)
€1m
ED (6)
€1m
ACD (5)
€1m
PE (6)
€1m
CAR (4)
€0m
SE (1)
€0m
Inter Club d'Escaldes's attack is €2m more valuable than Carroi's (€2m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACD (8)
€1m
RAN (4)
€1m
CAR (7)
€1m
ICD (4)
€1m
PE (5)
€1m
FSC (5)
€1m
ED (2)
€0m
ORD (4)
€0m
SE (0)
€0m
Inter Club d'Escaldes and Carroi have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (15)
€2m
RAN (12)
€2m
ACD (12)
€2m
ICD (12)
€2m
FSC (13)
€1m
CAR (10)
€1m
ED (8)
€1m
ORD (12)
€1m
SE (0)
€0m
Inter Club d'Escaldes and Carroi have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Andorra: 1a Divisió 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Andorra: 1a Divisió stats & trends →