Inter Club d'Escaldes is the clear favourite, with a 67% chance of victory, a 21% draw probability and only 12% for Penya Encarnada. The model picks a home win, reflecting Inter’s strong 2.22 average goals scored and only 0.67 conceded at home against weaker opposition, while Penya Encarnada averages just 0.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded on the road against stronger teams. The expected total is 2.9 goals, with the most likely total of 2 goals at 24%. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0, carrying a 12.5% probability. Inter’s recent draw streak shows they are still finding form, whereas Penya Encarnada has just endured two defeats. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals at 99.2%, Under 7.5 at 99.1%, Under 6.5 at 97.3%, Home +2 handicap at 96.5%, Away under 2.5 goals at 95.7%, Under 5.5 at 92.9%, Home or Draw at 88.4%, and Home +1 handicap at 88.4%. Each selection is presented with its exact probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Inter Club d'Escaldes win
67.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
21.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada win
11.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Inter Club d'Escaldes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.03
1.88
0.62
2.00
1.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.73
1.27
1.43
0.57
2.00
1.88
vs Weaker (15)
2.13
0.80
2.22
0.67
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Penya Encarnada) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penya Encarnada
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.63
1.13
1.80
0.87
1.47
vs Stronger (15)
0.53
2.07
0.57
2.14
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (14)
1.43
1.29
1.62
1.50
1.17
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter Club d'Escaldes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.9%
Under 1.5
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
54.5%
Under 2.5
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
32.2%
Under 3.5
67.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
47.9%
No
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.5%
1-0
11.1%
1-1
10.1%
2-1
9.6%
3-0
8.8%
3-1
6.7%
0-0
6.6%
4-0
4.6%
Inter Club d'Escaldes goals ↓
Penya Encarnada goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.6%
3.5%
1.7%
0.4%
0.1%
1
11%
10%
3.5%
0.9%
0.2%
2
13%
9.6%
3.7%
0.9%
0.2%
3
8.8%
6.7%
2.6%
0.7%
0.1%
4
4.6%
3.5%
1.4%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Inter Club d'Escaldes goals (down), columns = Penya Encarnada goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter Club d'Escaldes
2.25
Ranger's
2.00
FC Santa Coloma
1.83
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.42
Casa de Portugal
1.22
Penya Encarnada
1.00
Ordino
0.92
Carroi
0.72
Esperança d'Andorra
0.65
Sporting Escaldes
0.00
Inter Club d'Escaldes is 1.25 points better than Penya Encarnada in terms of average points per game (2.25 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter Club d'Escaldes
1.96
Ranger's
1.92
FC Santa Coloma
1.88
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.29
Casa de Portugal
1.16
Ordino
1.12
Penya Encarnada
0.79
Esperança d'Andorra
0.77
Carroi
0.60
Sporting Escaldes
0.50
Inter Club d'Escaldes is 1.17 goals better than Penya Encarnada in terms of goals scored per game (1.96 vs 0.79).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Santa Coloma
0.83
Ranger's
0.92
Inter Club d'Escaldes
1.00
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.08
Casa de Portugal
1.44
Penya Encarnada
1.71
Ordino
1.75
Esperança d'Andorra
1.85
Carroi
2.20
Sporting Escaldes
2.50
Inter Club d'Escaldes is 0.71 goals better than Penya Encarnada in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.71).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Inter Club d'Escaldes or Draw
88.4%
Avg Implied -
67%
21%
12%
covers Inter Club d'Escaldes + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Inter Club d'Escaldes or Penya Encarnada
78.9%
Avg Implied -
67%
21%
12%
covers Inter Club d'Escaldes + Penya Encarnada
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Penya Encarnada
32.7%
Avg Implied -
67%
21%
12%
covers Draw + Penya Encarnada
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Inter Club d'Escaldes over/under 0.5
Over
87.7%
Under
12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Club d'Escaldes over/under 1.5
Over
61.9%
Under
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Club d'Escaldes over/under 2.5
Over
34.9%
Under
65.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Club d'Escaldes over/under 3.5
Over
16.1%
Under
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada over/under 0.5
Over
53.6%
Under
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada over/under 1.5
Over
17.9%
Under
82.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada over/under 2.5
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada over/under 3.5
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Inter Club d'Escaldes, so a minus line means Inter Club d'Escaldes give that many goals of a start and Penya Encarnada receive them. At -1, Inter Club d'Escaldes must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Inter Club d'Escaldes win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Inter Club d'Escaldes)
Inter Club d'Escaldes -2
22.9%
Draw -2
20.8%
Penya Encarnada +2
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Inter Club d'Escaldes)
Inter Club d'Escaldes -1
43.6%
Draw -1
23.6%
Penya Encarnada +1
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Inter Club d'Escaldes)
Inter Club d'Escaldes +1
88.4%
Draw +1
8.1%
Penya Encarnada -1
3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Inter Club d'Escaldes)
Inter Club d'Escaldes +2
96.5%
Draw +2
2.8%
Penya Encarnada -2
0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Inter Club d'Escaldes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.40
0.75
0.19
0.93
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.67
0.47
0.57
0.29
0.75
0.62
vs Weaker (15)
1.00
0.33
0.89
0.11
1.17
0.67
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Penya Encarnada) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penya Encarnada
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.53
0.27
0.60
0.40
0.47
vs Stronger (15)
0.20
0.80
0.14
0.71
0.25
0.88
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.29
0.38
0.50
0.67
0.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter Club d'Escaldes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Inter Club d'Escaldes over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Club d'Escaldes over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Club d'Escaldes over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Inter Club d'Escaldes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.63
1.12
0.44
1.07
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.07
0.80
0.86
0.29
1.25
1.25
vs Weaker (15)
1.13
0.47
1.33
0.56
0.83
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Penya Encarnada) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penya Encarnada
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.10
0.87
1.20
0.47
1.00
vs Stronger (15)
0.33
1.27
0.43
1.43
0.25
1.12
vs Similar (14)
0.93
1.00
1.25
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter Club d'Escaldes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Inter Club d'Escaldes over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Club d'Escaldes over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Club d'Escaldes over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ICD (25)
€4m
RAN (24)
€4m
ACD (25)
€3m
FSC (28)
€3m
PE (26)
€3m
CAR (21)
€2m
ED (16)
€2m
ORD (22)
€2m
SE (1)
€0m
Inter Club d'Escaldes's squad is €1m more valuable than Penya Encarnada's (€4m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ICD (9)
€2m
FSC (10)
€2m
RAN (8)
€1m
ORD (6)
€1m
ED (6)
€1m
ACD (5)
€1m
PE (6)
€1m
CAR (4)
€0m
SE (1)
€0m
Inter Club d'Escaldes's attack is €1m more valuable than Penya Encarnada's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACD (8)
€1m
RAN (4)
€1m
CAR (7)
€1m
ICD (4)
€1m
PE (5)
€1m
FSC (5)
€1m
ED (2)
€0m
ORD (4)
€0m
SE (0)
€0m
Inter Club d'Escaldes and Penya Encarnada have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (15)
€2m
RAN (12)
€2m
ACD (12)
€2m
ICD (12)
€2m
FSC (13)
€1m
CAR (10)
€1m
ED (8)
€1m
ORD (12)
€1m
SE (0)
€0m
Inter Club d'Escaldes and Penya Encarnada have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Andorra: 1a Divisió 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Andorra: 1a Divisió stats & trends →
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Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
FC Santa Coloma
Esperança d'Andorra
Sporting Escaldes
Ranger's
Ordino
Carroi
Casa de Portugal