Inter Turku is expected to secure a home win, with a 49% probability, while a draw is 29% likely and an away victory for Gnistan 22% probable. The model's pick is indeed a home win, which should unfold with 2.3 expected total goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, occurring 13.6% of the time.
Inter Turku has been scoring 1.5 goals on average at home, where they also concede 0.75 goals, indicating a strong defensive performance. Gnistan, on the other hand, has scored 1.12 goals and conceded 1.62 goals on average when playing away against stronger opponents. The model suggests selecting Under 3.5 goals, which has a 79.2% probability of happening. Another selection is Over 21.5 fouls with a 70.6% chance of being correct. Inter Turku has a 49% chance of winning, a 29% chance of drawing, and a 22% chance of losing.
Results analysis
The away team Gnistan pulled off a stunning upset, securing a 1-2 win against the pre-match favourite Inter Turku. The win extends Gnistan's run of consecutive wins to four, having come off a draw in their previous match. The model's selection, a home win, was incorrect, given a 49% probability. The model's call was wrong. The model's selection of a home win was the only favourite listed, with no other selections given. The suggested pick of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a probability of 79.2%. The most likely score was not achieved, with the actual score being 1-2.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Inter Turku win✗ Miss
49.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gnistan win✓ Hit
21.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Inter Turku
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
0.97
1.67
0.73
1.80
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.74
1.07
1.71
0.79
1.77
1.38
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Gnistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gnistan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.67
1.69
2.00
1.21
1.29
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
2.17
0.67
3.00
1.33
1.33
vs Similar (24)
1.58
1.54
1.92
1.77
1.18
1.27
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter Turku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.0%
Under 1.5
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
41.4%
Under 2.5
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.8%
Under 3.5
79.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.2%
No
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
1-0
12.8%
0-0
10.9%
2-0
10.2%
2-1
9.0%
0-1
7.3%
1-2 ✓
5.5%
3-0
5.0%
Inter Turku goals ↓
Gnistan goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
7.3%
3.7%
1.1%
0.2%
1
13%
14%
5.5%
1.6%
0.4%
2
10%
9.0%
4.0%
1.2%
0.3%
3
5.0%
4.4%
1.9%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.8%
1.6%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Inter Turku goals (down), columns = Gnistan goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
KuPS
2.05
Inter Turku
1.86
Gnistan
1.67
HJK Helsinki
1.62
AC Oulu
1.57
VPS
1.57
Turku PS
1.43
Lahti
1.38
Ilves
1.19
SJK
0.86
FF Jaro
0.71
Mariehamn
0.52
Inter Turku is 0.19 points better than Gnistan in terms of average points per game (1.86 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KuPS
1.81
Gnistan
1.67
HJK Helsinki
1.62
Ilves
1.57
VPS
1.38
Inter Turku
1.33
Turku PS
1.29
SJK
1.19
Lahti
1.19
AC Oulu
1.19
FF Jaro
0.86
Mariehamn
0.71
Inter Turku is 0.33 goals worse than Gnistan in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Inter Turku
0.76
Lahti
0.90
VPS
1.00
KuPS
1.05
Turku PS
1.05
AC Oulu
1.19
HJK Helsinki
1.24
Gnistan
1.33
SJK
1.57
Ilves
1.67
FF Jaro
2.00
Mariehamn
2.05
Inter Turku is 0.57 goals better than Gnistan in terms of goals conceded per game (0.76 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Inter Turku
58%
KuPS
57%
Lahti
56%
HJK Helsinki
55%
SJK
50%
Turku PS
50%
Ilves
49%
VPS
48%
AC Oulu
48%
FF Jaro
47%
Mariehamn
45%
Gnistan
44%
Inter Turku is 13.6 percentage points better than Gnistan in terms of average possession (58% vs 44%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Inter Turku
For 5.7 · Against 4.7 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.1 · Against 9.0 · Total 18.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Gnistan
For 3.0 · Against 7.0 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 11.4 · Total 23.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Inter Turku
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
10.6
10.8
1.1
1.0
1.2
19.6
22.1
17.9
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (40)
10.1
10.6
9.6
0.9
0.8
1.1
19.7
21.9
17.9
vs Weaker (10)
13.2
11.0
14.0
1.6
1.5
1.7
19.2
24.0
18.0
% over line
68%
62%
73%
12%
12%
12%
40%
50%
33%
% under line
32%
38%
27%
88%
88%
88%
60%
50%
67%
This opponent (Gnistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gnistan
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.4
10.6
12.3
2.1
2.1
2.2
22.6
21.1
24.2
vs Stronger (11)
12.5
11.8
14.0
1.3
2.2
0.5
18.3
19.5
16.0
vs Similar (39)
11.1
10.2
12.0
2.4
2.0
2.7
23.8
21.8
25.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
70%
64%
77%
30%
28%
32%
59%
50%
69%
% under line
30%
36%
23%
70%
72%
68%
41%
50%
31%
This opponent (Inter Turku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Gnistan
11.5
Inter Turku
10.5
Mariehamn
10.4
SJK
10.1
AC Oulu
10.1
FF Jaro
10.1
HJK Helsinki
10.0
Ilves
9.9
KuPS
9.9
VPS
9.8
Lahti
9.8
Turku PS
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Turku PS
4.7
Lahti
4.5
Gnistan
4.0
AC Oulu
3.9
Mariehamn
3.9
SJK
3.9
Ilves
3.8
Inter Turku
3.8
VPS
3.6
KuPS
3.3
FF Jaro
3.3
HJK Helsinki
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SJK
23.8
Ilves
23.5
Lahti
23.1
Inter Turku
23.1
AC Oulu
22.7
Gnistan
22.5
Turku PS
22.4
VPS
22.4
Mariehamn
22.0
KuPS
21.7
HJK Helsinki
20.8
FF Jaro
18.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
53.6%
Under 9.5
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
43.2%
Under 3.5
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
57.4%
Under 21.5
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Inter Turku
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.57
0.93
0.47
0.67
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.85
0.63
1.00
0.50
0.69
0.77
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Gnistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gnistan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.70
0.56
0.81
0.43
0.57
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.33
0.33
1.67
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.54
0.54
0.62
0.62
0.45
0.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter Turku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Inter Turku over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Turku over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Turku over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gnistan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gnistan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gnistan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Inter Turku
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.40
0.73
0.27
1.13
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.89
0.44
0.71
0.29
1.08
0.62
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Gnistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gnistan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.97
1.12
1.19
0.79
0.71
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.83
0.33
1.33
1.00
0.33
vs Similar (24)
1.04
1.00
1.31
1.15
0.73
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter Turku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Inter Turku over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Turku over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Turku over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gnistan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gnistan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gnistan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (26)
€6m
IT (25)
€5m
ILV (22)
€4m
SJK (26)
€4m
AO (23)
€4m
GNI (21)
€3m
LAH (21)
€2m
MAR (22)
€2m
FJ (20)
€2m
Inter Turku's squad is €2m more valuable than Gnistan's (€5m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (9)
€2m
IT (9)
€2m
SJK (8)
€1m
ILV (7)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
GNI (6)
€1m
LAH (9)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
Inter Turku and Gnistan have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (6)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
SJK (9)
€1m
ILV (4)
€1m
FJ (6)
€1m
MAR (4)
€1m
GNI (5)
€1m
LAH (2)
€0m
Inter Turku and Gnistan have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (11)
€3m
IT (11)
€2m
ILV (11)
€2m
SJK (9)
€2m
AO (11)
€1m
GNI (10)
€1m
LAH (10)
€1m
MAR (10)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
Inter Turku and Gnistan have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Veikkausliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
KuPS
HJK Helsinki
VPS
AC Oulu
Turku PS
Lahti
Ilves
SJK
FF Jaro
Mariehamn