PythiaFootballBETA
The contest between Inter Turku and HJK Helsinki is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. Home and away win probabilities sit at 29% and 41% respectively, while a draw is 30%. The expected total goals hover at 2.4, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.3% chance. Inter Turku, playing at home against a team of similar strength, averages one goal scored and 1.5 conceded per match. HJK, on the road, is expected to score and concede at a comparable rate against this tier.
The model’s selections are: Under 5.5 cards - 83.9%, Under 3.5 - 78.5%, Under 11.5 corners - 76.5%, Under 25.5 fouls - 75.4%, Over 19.5 fouls - 71.9%, and Over 2.5 cards - 70.4%. Inter Turku’s recent form shows a win, loss, draw, draw, win, while HJK’s last five include a win, loss, win, loss, win. The match ends 0-1 in favour of the away side.
The match finished 0-1 in favour of HJK Helsinki, extending their recent win streak. The model had named an away win as the favourite with a 41% probability, and that call proved correct. The predicted most likely score of 1-1 did not materialise, but the actual 0-1 result still fell within the model’s overall expectation of a low-scoring affair. Among the suggested selections, the Under 3.5 goal pick hit, as did the Under 11.5 corners, Over 19.5 fouls and Over 2.5 cards, each with probabilities of 78.5%, 76.5%, 71.9% and 70.4% respectively. The Under 5.5 cards and Under 25.5 fouls selections missed, with probabilities of 83.9% and 75.4%. Overall, the model’s predictions were largely accurate.
Inter Turku| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.20 | 1.20 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.50 | 1.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (4) | 1.75 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 4.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
HJK Helsinki| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.20 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.33 | 0.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (2) | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | - | - |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.33 | 0.00 | - | - | 1.33 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 80% (+55pp vs league) | |||||
| HJK Helsinki goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 11% | 11% | 8.1% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
| 1 | 8.6% | 14% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 1.2% |
| 2 | 5.2% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Inter TurkuHJK HelsinkiInter Turku| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (5) | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 5.0 | 24.0 | 22.5 | 25.5 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (4) | 8.3 | 8.0 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 23.7 | 20.0 | 25.5 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 9.0 | 9.0 | - | 3.0 | 3.0 | - | 25.0 | 25.0 | - |
| % over line | 25% | 0% | 50% | 60% | 33% | 100% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| % under line | 75% | 100% | 50% | 40% | 67% | 0% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
HJK Helsinki| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (5) | 9.6 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 24.8 | 27.5 | 23.0 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (2) | 9.5 | 9.5 | - | 3.5 | 3.5 | - | 27.5 | 27.5 | - |
| vs Weaker (3) | 9.7 | - | 9.7 | 3.3 | - | 3.3 | 23.0 | - | 23.0 |
| % over line | 60% | 50% | 67% | 40% | 50% | 33% | 60% | 100% | 33% |
| % under line | 40% | 50% | 33% | 60% | 50% | 67% | 40% | 0% | 67% |
Inter Turku| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.40 | 1.00 | 1.67 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (4) | 0.75 | 1.25 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 4.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
HJK Helsinki| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.40 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.33 | 0.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (2) | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | - | - |
| vs Weaker (3) | 0.33 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.33 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 80% (+55pp vs league) | |||||
Inter Turku| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.20 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (4) | 1.00 | 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 80% (+55pp vs league) | |||||
HJK Helsinki| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.60 | 0.50 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (2) | 0.50 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 1.50 | - | - |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 80% (+55pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 cards | 83.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 3.5 | 78.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 76.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 75.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 71.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 70.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/04/22 | A | 1-4 |
Inter Turku| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/04/22 | H | 4-0 | |
| 23/04/22 | A | 1-4 | |
| 17/04/22 | H | 0-2 | |
| 09/04/22 | H | 2-1 | |
| 02/04/22 | A | 2-1 |
HJK Helsinki| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/04/22 | A | 0-2 | |
| 23/04/22 | H | 1-4 | |
| 18/04/22 | A | 0-1 | |
| 08/04/22 | A | 0-1 | |
| 02/04/22 | H | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | HJK Helsinki | 27 | 58 | 67% | 2.1 | 41 | 23 | +18 | 2.4 | 63% | 48% | 19% | 11.6 | 75% | 3.8 | 56% | 26.4 | 75% | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 55% |
| 2 |  KuPS | 27 | 57 | 63% | 2.1 | 43 | 21 | +22 | 2.4 | 70% | 48% | 19% | 10.2 | 50% | 4.0 | 62% | 20.4 | 38% | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 57% |
| 3 |  Honka | 27 | 49 | 52% | 1.8 | 53 | 27 | +26 | 3.0 | 81% | 59% | 37% | 10.0 | 53% | 3.6 | 53% | 17.8 | 47% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 51% |
| 4 |  Haka | 29 | 48 | 48% | 1.7 | 44 | 42 | +2 | 3.0 | 86% | 59% | 28% | 9.9 | 44% | 4.0 | 56% | 22.1 | 56% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 5 |  AC Oulu | 29 | 45 | 45% | 1.6 | 48 | 41 | +7 | 3.1 | 79% | 62% | 34% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | - |
| 6 |  VPS | 31 | 44 | 42% | 1.4 | 60 | 46 | +14 | 3.4 | 84% | 68% | 52% | 8.4 | 25% | 3.4 | 56% | 21.2 | 50% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 49% |
| 7 |  SJK | 28 | 35 | 36% | 1.2 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 2.6 | 68% | 43% | 29% | 11.4 | 62% | 3.9 | 75% | 19.6 | 38% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 51% |
| 8 |  Ilves | 27 | 34 | 33% | 1.3 | 43 | 43 | +0 | 3.2 | 78% | 63% | 44% | 9.9 | 50% | 3.4 | 44% | 21.6 | 44% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 47% |
| 9 |  Mariehamn | 27 | 34 | 33% | 1.3 | 41 | 43 | -2 | 3.1 | 81% | 52% | 44% | 10.8 | 50% | 4.4 | 56% | 26.6 | 81% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 47% |
| 10 | Inter Turku | 28 | 32 | 32% | 1.1 | 40 | 42 | -2 | 2.9 | 79% | 61% | 29% | 8.5 | 24% | 4.0 | 59% | 22.8 | 53% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 49% |
| 11 |  Lahti | 27 | 21 | 19% | 0.8 | 26 | 55 | -29 | 3.0 | 78% | 52% | 37% | 10.2 | 59% | 5.0 | 88% | 23.4 | 71% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 49% |
| 12 |  HIFK Helsinki | 27 | 9 | 4% | 0.3 | 20 | 70 | -50 | 3.3 | 85% | 59% | 37% | 11.6 | 47% | 4.1 | 53% | 22.8 | 59% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 2.6 | 48% |