PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Inverness CT vs Arbroath Result & Analysis

Date: 27/03/2021
Time: 15:00
Final 1-0
Inverness CT
Inverness CT
Vs
55%
29%
17%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Arbroath
Arbroath
Scotland: Championship
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Inverness CT win✓ Hit
54.8%
Avg Implied 51.3% · @ 1.80
Edge
+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.6%
Avg Implied 27.2% · @ 3.39
Edge
+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arbroath win✗ Miss
16.6%
Avg Implied 21.5% · @ 4.30
Edge
-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Inverness CTInverness CT

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L20W22D11D12L11D01L00D10W10WH·QUE17/02A·AYR20/02H·ALL23/02H·HEA26/02A·DUN02/03A·ALL06/03H·MOR09/03H·RAI12/03A·RAI16/03A·DUN20/03
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.131.361.071.251.19
vs Stronger (24)1.251.081.301.001.211.14
vs Similar (6)1.501.331.501.251.501.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArbroathArbroath

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D10W11D20W11D10W10W24L02L00DH·DUN22/01A·MOR30/01H·INV03/02H·DUN06/02A·ALL13/02H·RAI20/02A·AYR27/02H·QUE06/03A·DUN13/03H·HEA20/03
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.131.000.870.671.40
vs Stronger (11)0.641.090.800.600.501.50
vs Similar (19)0.951.161.101.000.781.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%022%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
66.0%
Under 1.5
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
38.0%
@ 2.18-4.9%
Under 2.5
62.0%
@ 1.64+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.3%
Under 3.5
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
40.8%
No
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0 ✓
15.2%
1-1
12.9%
2-0
12.3%
0-0
12.1%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
6.7%
3-0
6.1%
3-1
4.4%
Inverness CT goals ↓
Arbroath goals →
01234
012%6.7%2.8%0.7%0.1%
115%13%4.2%1.0%0.2%
212%8.8%3.1%0.7%0.1%
36.1%4.4%1.6%0.4%0.1%
42.3%1.6%0.6%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Inverness CT goals (down), columns = Arbroath goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Heart Of Midlothian
2.11
Dundee
1.67
Raith Rvs
1.59
Dunfermline
1.44
Inverness CT
1.33
Queen of Sth
1.19
Arbroath
1.11
Morton
1.07
Ayr
1.07
Alloa
0.81
Inverness CT is 0.22 points better than Arbroath in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.11).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Heart Of Midlothian
2.33
Dundee
1.81
Raith Rvs
1.67
Dunfermline
1.41
Queen of Sth
1.41
Inverness CT
1.33
Ayr
1.15
Alloa
1.11
Arbroath
1.04
Morton
0.81
Inverness CT is 0.30 goals better than Arbroath in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.04).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Heart Of Midlothian
0.89
Inverness CT
1.15
Morton
1.22
Dunfermline
1.26
Arbroath
1.26
Raith Rvs
1.33
Ayr
1.37
Dundee
1.48
Queen of Sth
1.89
Alloa
2.22
Inverness CT is 0.11 goals better than Arbroath in terms of goals conceded per game (1.15 vs 1.26).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Inverness CTInverness CT

For 4.5 · Against 5.3 · Total 9.8

ðŸšĐ Corners

1404538410325321025131366391114581271499A·DUNA·RAIH·RAIH·MORA·ALLA·DUNH·HEAH·ALLA·AYRH·QUE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.8

ðŸŸĻ Cards

8013243551222133213234686436245A·DUNA·RAIH·RAIH·MORA·ALLA·DUNH·HEAH·ALLA·AYRH·QUE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 12.8 · Total 25.1

⚠ïļ Fouls

36051381515141210221411151517131281314518232922362632252119A·DUNA·RAIH·RAIH·MORA·ALLA·DUNH·HEAH·ALLA·AYRH·QUE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

ArbroathArbroath

For 5.1 · Against 4.1 · Total 9.2

ðŸšĐ Corners

110558343555272553564371011710791081010H·HEAA·DUNH·QUEA·AYRH·RAIA·ALLH·DUNH·INVA·MORH·DUN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.4

ðŸŸĻ Cards

50111331113223111132122442552253H·HEAA·DUNH·QUEA·AYRH·RAIA·ALLH·DUNH·INVA·MORH·DUN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 9.8 · Total 22.9

⚠ïļ Fouls

320128119199121413102111510129146121220202826233215212024H·HEAA·DUNH·QUEA·AYRH·RAIA·ALLH·DUNH·INVA·MORH·DUN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Inverness CTInverness CT

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.910.511.23.23.23.221.520.422.5
vs Stronger (40)11.011.110.93.43.43.421.720.922.3
vs Similar (10)10.48.812.82.62.82.220.718.823.5
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line62%62%62%38%33%42%46%38%54%
% under line38%38%38%62%67%58%54%62%46%
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArbroathArbroath

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.79.69.83.22.83.622.221.223.2
vs Stronger (19)10.310.110.43.63.33.923.120.925.0
vs Similar (30)9.49.59.42.92.53.421.621.222.0
vs Weaker (1)7.07.0-4.04.0-22.022.0-
% over line60%54%67%44%31%58%50%46%54%
% under line40%46%33%56%69%42%50%54%46%
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Alloa
11.6
Heart Of Midlothian
11.0
Inverness CT
10.9
Morton
10.6
Dunfermline
10.6
Raith Rvs
10.6
Queen of Sth
10.5
Dundee
10.2
Ayr
10.2
Arbroath
9.7

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Raith Rvs
3.9
Heart Of Midlothian
3.8
Dundee
3.3
Inverness CT
3.2
Ayr
3.2
Arbroath
3.2
Dunfermline
3.2
Queen of Sth
3.1
Morton
2.9
Alloa
2.8

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Heart Of Midlothian
25.8
Dundee
24.9
Raith Rvs
22.5
Alloa
22.3
Arbroath
22.2
Ayr
21.6
Inverness CT
21.5
Queen of Sth
20.6
Morton
20.5
Dunfermline
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
53.8%
Under 9.5
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
55.7%
Under 3.5
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
67.8%
Under 21.5
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Inverness CTInverness CT

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W01L11D02L11D00D00D00D00DH·QUE17/02A·AYR20/02H·ALL23/02H·HEA26/02A·DUN02/03A·ALL06/03H·MOR09/03H·RAI12/03A·RAI16/03A·DUN20/03
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.500.290.430.690.56
vs Stronger (24)0.500.500.300.500.640.50
vs Similar (6)0.500.500.250.251.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArbroathArbroath

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D10W20W10W00D00D23L00D00DH·DUN22/01A·MOR30/01H·INV03/02H·DUN06/02A·ALL13/02H·RAI20/02A·AYR27/02H·QUE06/03A·DUN13/03H·HEA20/03
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.570.800.470.200.67
vs Stronger (11)0.270.730.400.200.171.17
vs Similar (19)0.630.471.000.600.220.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Inverness CT over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Inverness CTInverness CT

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W21W00D10W00D01L00D10W10WH·QUE17/02A·AYR20/02H·ALL23/02H·HEA26/02A·DUN02/03A·ALL06/03H·MOR09/03H·RAI12/03A·RAI16/03A·DUN20/03
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.631.070.640.560.62
vs Stronger (24)0.750.581.000.500.570.64
vs Similar (6)1.000.831.251.000.500.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArbroathArbroath

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W01L00D01L10W10W01L02L00DH·DUN22/01A·MOR30/01H·INV03/02H·DUN06/02A·ALL13/02H·RAI20/02A·AYR27/02H·QUE06/03A·DUN13/03H·HEA20/03
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.570.200.400.470.73
vs Stronger (11)0.360.360.400.400.330.33
vs Similar (19)0.320.680.100.400.561.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Inverness CT over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.581.7%-------✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls81.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards79.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards75.4%-------✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners70.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (30)
€22m
DUN (21)
€5m
DUN (26)
€4m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
Inverness CT and Arbroath have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (12)
€12m
DUN (9)
€2m
DUN (7)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
Inverness CT and Arbroath have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (6)
€4m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
Inverness CT and Arbroath have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (12)
€6m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (13)
€2m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
Inverness CT and Arbroath have a similar defence value (both €0m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
2
IC wins
1
Draws
2
ARB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Inverness CT vs Arbroath · H/A from IC
DateH/AGameScore
03/02/21AArbroath Vs IC1-1
31/10/20HIC Vs Arbroath3-1
28/12/19HIC Vs Arbroath0-1
09/11/19AArbroath Vs IC3-0
10/08/19HIC Vs Arbroath2-1

Inverness CTInverness CT

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/03/21ADunfermline Vs IC0-1
16/03/21ARaith Rvs Vs IC0-1
12/03/21HIC Vs Raith Rvs0-0
09/03/21HIC Vs Morton0-1
06/03/21AAlloa Vs IC1-1
02/03/21ADundee Vs IC2-1
26/02/21HIC Vs Heart Of Midlothian1-1
23/02/21HIC Vs Alloa2-2
20/02/21AAyr Vs IC0-2
17/02/21HIC Vs Queen of Sth0-1

ArbroathArbroath

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/03/21HARB Vs Heart Of Midlothian0-0
13/03/21ADundee Vs ARB2-0
06/03/21HARB Vs Queen of Sth2-4
27/02/21AAyr Vs ARB0-1
20/02/21HARB Vs Raith Rvs1-0
13/02/21AAlloa Vs ARB1-1
06/02/21HARB Vs Dunfermline2-0
03/02/21HARB Vs Inverness CT1-1
30/01/21AMorton Vs ARB0-1
22/01/21HARB Vs Dundee1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Inverness CT
Inverness CT
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDWW1.56
HomeLDDLD1.71
AwayWLDWW1.42
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%46%42%
AVG goals2.502.542.46
Over 1.5 %78%75%81%
Over 2.5 %46%42%50%
Over 3.5 %24%33%15%
Scored1.381.541.23
Conceded1.121.001.23
BTTS50%50%50%
Clean Sheet36%33%38%
Corners10.8610.5411.15
Cards3.243.253.23
Arbroath
Arbroath
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLLD1.20
HomeDWWLD1.46
AwayDWDWL0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%35%25%
AVG goals2.041.922.17
Over 1.5 %64%62%67%
Over 2.5 %32%31%33%
Over 3.5 %12%8%17%
Scored0.881.040.71
Conceded1.160.881.46
BTTS42%46%38%
Clean Sheet30%38%21%
Corners9.709.629.79
Cards3.222.853.62

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian2757
63%
2.1
6324+39
3.2
78%
59%
41%
10.1
56%
3.0
41%
25.5
74%
22
12462.30.9
-
2DundeeDundee2745
44%
1.7
4940+9
3.3
89%
63%
44%
10.5
67%
3.0
33%
24.7
67%
5
1221.81.5
-
3
RR
Raith Rvs
2743
44%
1.6
4536+9
3.0
70%
56%
44%
11.2
67%
4.5
74%
23.7
74%
0
0001.71.3
-
4DunfermlineDunfermline2739
37%
1.4
3834+4
2.7
59%
48%
37%
11.1
81%
2.9
33%
22.0
52%
4
2021.41.3
-
5Inverness CTInverness CT2736
30%
1.3
3631+5
2.5
78%
44%
26%
10.4
48%
3.5
48%
24.0
63%
1
0001.31.1
-
6
QO
Queen of Sth
2732
33%
1.2
3851-13
3.3
85%
59%
41%
10.3
56%
3.5
48%
21.8
56%
0
0001.41.9
-
7ArbroathArbroath2730
26%
1.1
2834-6
2.3
59%
37%
26%
9.2
56%
3.4
52%
24.5
67%
1
0001.01.3
-
8
A
Ayr
2729
22%
1.1
3137-6
2.5
74%
41%
30%
10.5
63%
3.1
48%
22.2
52%
0
0001.11.4
-
9MortonMorton2729
22%
1.1
2233-11
2.0
59%
30%
19%
10.4
70%
3.0
41%
22.1
48%
1
0000.81.2
-
10
A
Alloa
2722
19%
0.8
3060-30
3.3
89%
67%
41%
10.6
59%
3.4
56%
26.0
78%
0
0001.12.2
-
Scotland: Championship 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →

← all matches