PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Inverness CT vs Dunfermline Result & Analysis

Date: 04/05/2019
Time: 00:00
Final 1-0
Inverness CT
Inverness CT
Vs
35%
31%
34%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dunfermline
Dunfermline
Scotland: Championship
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Inverness CT win✓ Hit
34.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline win✗ Miss
34.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Inverness CTInverness CT

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L20W21W32W00D12L10W22D02L21WA·DUN26/02A·QUE09/03A·PAR22/03H·ALL26/03H·FAL30/03H·ROS02/04A·AYR06/04A·MOR16/04H·DUN20/04A·ALL27/04
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.201.141.361.381.06
vs Stronger (26)1.231.231.171.501.291.00
vs Similar (4)1.501.001.000.502.001.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DunfermlineDunfermline

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W10W10W01L01L22D01L01L12L01LH·PAR26/02H·QUE02/03A·ALL09/03H·DUN26/03H·AYR29/03A·PAR06/04A·ROS09/04H·FAL13/04A·QUE20/04H·MOR27/04
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.900.800.801.071.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)0.890.890.790.861.000.93
vs Weaker (2)1.501.001.000.002.002.00
Clean sheet %40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%020%128%221%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
69.2%
Under 1.5
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
41.6%
Under 2.5
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.0%
Under 3.5
79.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.0%
No
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
10.9%
1-0 ✓
10.0%
0-1
9.9%
2-1
7.7%
1-2
7.7%
2-0
6.6%
0-2
6.5%
Inverness CT goals ↓
Dunfermline goals →
01234
011%9.9%6.5%2.6%0.7%
110.0%14%7.7%3.0%0.9%
26.6%7.7%4.5%1.8%0.5%
32.6%3.0%1.8%0.7%0.2%
40.8%0.9%0.5%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Inverness CT goals (down), columns = Dunfermline goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Ross County
1.97
Dundee Utd
1.81
Inverness CT
1.56
Ayr
1.50
Morton
1.28
Partick
1.19
Dunfermline
1.14
Alloa
1.08
Falkirk
1.06
Queen of Sth
1.06
Inverness CT is 0.42 points better than Dunfermline in terms of average points per game (1.56 vs 1.14).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Ross County
1.75
Ayr
1.39
Dundee Utd
1.36
Inverness CT
1.33
Partick
1.19
Queen of Sth
1.14
Alloa
1.08
Falkirk
1.03
Morton
1.00
Dunfermline
0.92
Inverness CT is 0.42 goals better than Dunfermline in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 0.92).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Ross County
0.94
Ayr
1.06
Dunfermline
1.11
Dundee Utd
1.11
Inverness CT
1.11
Morton
1.25
Queen of Sth
1.33
Falkirk
1.36
Partick
1.44
Alloa
1.47
Inverness CT and Dunfermline are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.11).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Inverness CTInverness CT

For 5.4 · Against 7.2 · Total 12.6

ðŸšĐ Corners

2004111282659767854374115215208141315910157A·ALLH·DUNA·MORA·AYRH·ROSH·FALH·ALLA·PARA·QUEA·DUN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.0

ðŸŸĻ Cards

802312221153211243235342831635A·ALLH·DUNA·MORA·AYRH·ROSH·FALH·ALLA·PARA·QUEA·DUN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.0 · Against 10.8 · Total 19.8

⚠ïļ Fouls

26011146971012101214114612911410121425151722261518201426A·ALLH·DUNA·MORA·AYRH·ROSH·FALH·ALLA·PARA·QUEA·DUN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

DunfermlineDunfermline

For 5.7 · Against 5.7 · Total 11.4

ðŸšĐ Corners

1502457729667444896754861291513812151212H·MORA·QUEH·FALA·ROSA·PARH·AYRH·DUNA·ALLH·QUEH·PAR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.5 · Total 2.9

ðŸŸĻ Cards

50142111231222111225313443024H·MORA·QUEH·FALA·ROSA·PARH·AYRH·DUNA·ALLH·QUEH·PAR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 9.5 · Total 20.4

⚠ïļ Fouls

30019118106101311951311111296111110830181624142423152218H·MORA·QUEH·FALA·ROSA·PARH·AYRH·DUNA·ALLH·QUEH·PAR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Inverness CTInverness CT

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.810.411.23.63.43.921.621.022.1
vs Stronger (41)11.110.711.53.83.73.822.422.222.5
vs Similar (7)9.710.58.72.71.54.318.716.821.3
vs Weaker (2)9.56.013.04.04.04.015.514.017.0
% over line64%56%72%52%52%52%52%48%56%
% under line36%44%28%48%48%48%48%52%44%
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DunfermlineDunfermline

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.79.210.23.23.33.221.521.721.2
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (44)9.89.410.23.23.43.121.521.921.2
vs Weaker (6)8.88.59.53.22.84.021.020.821.5
% over line56%52%60%40%44%36%54%56%52%
% under line44%48%40%60%56%64%46%44%48%
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Morton
11.0
Alloa
10.9
Inverness CT
10.8
Dundee Utd
10.5
Partick
10.5
Ross County
10.3
Falkirk
10.1
Queen of Sth
10.0
Dunfermline
9.7
Ayr
9.3

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Dundee Utd
4.3
Ross County
4.0
Falkirk
3.6
Inverness CT
3.6
Ayr
3.5
Partick
3.4
Morton
3.3
Queen of Sth
3.3
Dunfermline
3.2
Alloa
3.2

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Ross County
23.4
Dundee Utd
22.9
Alloa
22.1
Ayr
21.9
Inverness CT
21.6
Dunfermline
21.5
Morton
21.4
Partick
21.1
Falkirk
20.9
Queen of Sth
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
65.1%
Under 9.5
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.0%
Under 3.5
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
44.3%
Under 21.5
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Inverness CTInverness CT

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D20W00D20W00D12L00D12L01L01LA·DUN26/02A·QUE09/03A·PAR22/03H·ALL26/03H·FAL30/03H·ROS02/04A·AYR06/04A·MOR16/04H·DUN20/04A·ALL27/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.600.790.860.620.38
vs Stronger (26)0.650.580.750.920.570.29
vs Similar (4)1.000.751.000.501.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DunfermlineDunfermline

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D00D01L01L21W00D00D01L00DH·PAR26/02H·QUE02/03A·ALL09/03H·DUN26/03H·AYR29/03A·PAR06/04A·ROS09/04H·FAL13/04A·QUE20/04H·MOR27/04
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.330.330.200.470.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)0.360.290.360.210.360.36
vs Weaker (2)1.001.000.000.002.002.00
Clean sheet %70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Inverness CT over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Inverness CTInverness CT

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D21W12L00D00D10W10W01L20WA·DUN26/02A·QUE09/03A·PAR22/03H·ALL26/03H·FAL30/03H·ROS02/04A·AYR06/04A·MOR16/04H·DUN20/04A·ALL27/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.600.360.500.750.69
vs Stronger (26)0.580.650.420.580.710.71
vs Similar (4)0.500.250.000.001.000.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DunfermlineDunfermline

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W10W10W00D00D01L01L01L11D01LH·PAR26/02H·QUE02/03A·ALL09/03H·DUN26/03H·AYR29/03A·PAR06/04A·ROS09/04H·FAL13/04A·QUE20/04H·MOR27/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.570.470.600.600.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)0.540.610.430.640.640.57
vs Weaker (2)0.500.001.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Inverness CT over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards89.3%-------✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls83.7%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.579.0%-------✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards77.9%-------✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners76.1%-------✗ Miss
Under 23.5 fouls71.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (22)
€11m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
RC (11)
€1m
MOR (14)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
Inverness CT's squad is €4m less valuable than Dunfermline's (€1m vs €4m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (7)
€4m
FAL (9)
€2m
DUN (9)
€2m
PAR (6)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
Inverness CT's attack is €1m less valuable than Dunfermline's (€0m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (6)
€3m
PAR (6)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
RC (3)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
Inverness CT and Dunfermline have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
DUN (13)
€2m
PAR (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
MOR (6)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
Inverness CT's defence is €2m less valuable than Dunfermline's (€0m vs €2m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
2
IC wins
2
Draws
3
DUN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Inverness CT vs Dunfermline · H/A from IC
DateH/AGameScore
16/02/19ADunfermline Vs IC1-0
30/10/18HIC Vs Dunfermline2-2
01/09/18ADunfermline Vs IC0-3
21/04/18HIC Vs Dunfermline2-2
13/03/18ADunfermline Vs IC1-0
28/10/17HIC Vs Dunfermline1-0
12/08/17ADunfermline Vs IC5-1

Inverness CTInverness CT

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/04/19AAlloa Vs IC1-2
20/04/19HIC Vs Dundee Utd0-2
16/04/19AMorton Vs IC2-2
06/04/19AAyr Vs IC0-1
02/04/19HIC Vs Ross County1-2
30/03/19HIC Vs Falkirk0-0
26/03/19HIC Vs Alloa3-2
22/03/19APartick Vs IC1-2
09/03/19AQueen of Sth Vs IC0-2
26/02/19ADundee Utd Vs IC1-0

DunfermlineDunfermline

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/04/19HDUN Vs Morton0-1
20/04/19AQueen of Sth Vs DUN2-1
13/04/19HDUN Vs Falkirk0-1
09/04/19ARoss County Vs DUN1-0
06/04/19APartick Vs DUN2-2
29/03/19HDUN Vs Ayr0-1
26/03/19HDUN Vs Dundee Utd0-1
09/03/19AAlloa Vs DUN0-1
02/03/19HDUN Vs Queen of Sth1-0
26/02/19HDUN Vs Partick3-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Inverness CT
Inverness CT
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDLW1.66
HomeWWDLL1.48
AwayWWWDW1.84
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%36%52%
AVG goals2.542.802.28
Over 1.5 %66%72%60%
Over 2.5 %50%56%44%
Over 3.5 %32%44%20%
Scored1.481.561.40
Conceded1.061.240.88
BTTS52%60%44%
Clean Sheet38%32%44%
Corners10.8410.4411.24
Cards3.623.363.88
Dunfermline
Dunfermline
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLL1.34
HomeWLLLL1.36
AwayWWDLL1.32
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%40%32%
AVG goals2.121.922.32
Over 1.5 %54%44%64%
Over 2.5 %42%40%44%
Over 3.5 %22%20%24%
Scored1.121.081.16
Conceded1.000.841.16
BTTS34%20%48%
Clean Sheet42%48%36%
Corners9.709.2410.16
Cards3.223.283.16

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Ross CountyRoss County3671
58%
2.0
6334+29
2.7
72%
50%
31%
10.3
64%
4.1
58%
24.0
67%
1
0011.80.9
-
2Dundee UtdDundee Utd3665
53%
1.8
4940+9
2.5
78%
39%
14%
10.9
58%
4.2
69%
22.8
58%
11
4341.41.1
-
3Inverness CTInverness CT3656
39%
1.6
4840+8
2.4
64%
50%
28%
11.4
72%
3.8
56%
21.5
53%
1
0001.31.1
-
4
A
Ayr
3654
42%
1.5
5038+12
2.4
61%
39%
28%
9.0
39%
3.2
44%
22.0
56%
0
0001.41.1
-
5MortonMorton3646
31%
1.3
3645-9
2.2
69%
39%
14%
10.6
58%
3.5
53%
22.4
58%
1
0001.01.2
-
6PartickPartick3643
33%
1.2
4352-9
2.6
78%
53%
19%
10.8
67%
3.5
44%
21.0
36%
3
1111.21.4
-
7DunfermlineDunfermline3641
31%
1.1
3340-7
2.0
47%
36%
19%
9.8
53%
3.3
39%
22.3
61%
4
2020.91.1
-
8
A
Alloa
3639
28%
1.1
3953-14
2.6
75%
50%
22%
11.2
67%
3.0
39%
22.1
53%
0
0001.11.5
-
9
QO
Queen of Sth
3638
25%
1.1
4148-7
2.5
72%
47%
19%
10.2
56%
3.3
39%
20.4
39%
0
0001.11.3
-
10FalkirkFalkirk3638
25%
1.1
3749-12
2.4
78%
36%
17%
10.2
61%
3.6
53%
21.1
47%
6
2131.01.4
-
Scotland: Championship 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →

← all matches