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Inverness CT vs Dunfermline Result & Analysis

Date: 29/12/2020
Time: 18:30
Final 1-1
Inverness CT
Inverness CT
Vs
44%
26%
30%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dunfermline
Dunfermline
Scotland: Championship
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Inverness CT win✗ Miss
44.3%
Avg Implied 37.9% · @ 2.45
Edge
+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
25.9%
Avg Implied 28.5% · @ 3.26
Edge
-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline win✗ Miss
29.7%
Avg Implied 33.6% · @ 2.77
Edge
-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Inverness CTInverness CT

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L31W13L11D31W12L20W30W22D12LA·ALL07/03H·QUE10/03A·DUN17/10H·AYR24/10H·ARB31/10A·HEA07/11H·RAI21/11A·QUE04/12H·DUN12/12A·ALL19/12
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.271.671.131.271.40
vs Stronger (25)1.481.161.581.081.381.23
vs Similar (5)1.401.802.001.330.502.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DunfermlineDunfermline

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D31W41W32W00D21W22D12L33D10WA·PAR10/03H·INV17/10A·ALL24/10H·QUE31/10A·AYR07/11H·HEA20/11A·RAI05/12H·MOR12/12A·DUN19/12H·ARB26/12
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.771.332.001.061.501.64
vs Stronger (1)2.001.002.001.00--
vs Similar (26)1.811.312.001.001.621.62
vs Weaker (3)1.331.672.001.500.002.00
Clean sheet %27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%17%23%6%012%123%222%317%410%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.7%
Under 1.5
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
58.5%
@ 1.87+8.1%
Under 2.5
41.5%
@ 1.90-8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.1%
Under 3.5
63.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.5%
No
38.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.0%
2-1
9.2%
1-2
7.4%
1-0
7.0%
2-0
6.8%
2-2
6.2%
0-0
5.9%
0-1
5.4%
Inverness CT goals ↓
Dunfermline goals →
01234
05.9%5.4%4.4%2.0%0.7%
17.0%12%7.4%3.3%1.1%
26.8%9.2%6.2%2.8%0.9%
33.8%5.2%3.5%1.6%0.5%
41.6%2.2%1.5%0.7%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Inverness CT goals (down), columns = Dunfermline goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Heart Of Midlothian
2.11
Dundee
1.67
Raith Rvs
1.59
Dunfermline
1.44
Inverness CT
1.33
Queen of Sth
1.19
Arbroath
1.11
Morton
1.07
Ayr
1.07
Alloa
0.81
Inverness CT is 0.11 points worse than Dunfermline in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.44).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Heart Of Midlothian
2.33
Dundee
1.81
Raith Rvs
1.67
Dunfermline
1.41
Queen of Sth
1.41
Inverness CT
1.33
Ayr
1.15
Alloa
1.11
Arbroath
1.04
Morton
0.81
Inverness CT is 0.07 goals worse than Dunfermline in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.41).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Heart Of Midlothian
0.89
Inverness CT
1.15
Morton
1.22
Dunfermline
1.26
Arbroath
1.26
Raith Rvs
1.33
Ayr
1.37
Dundee
1.48
Queen of Sth
1.89
Alloa
2.22
Inverness CT is 0.11 goals better than Dunfermline in terms of goals conceded per game (1.15 vs 1.26).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Inverness CTInverness CT

For 5.5 · Against 4.9 · Total 10.4

ðŸšĐ Corners

170107431865544287666453177911961512108A·ALLH·DUNA·QUEH·RAIA·HEAH·ARBH·AYRA·DUNH·QUEA·ALL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.2 · Total 2.8

ðŸŸĻ Cards

602421111121311311112622314422A·ALLH·DUNA·QUEH·RAIA·HEAH·ARBH·AYRA·DUNH·QUEA·ALL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 9.0 · Total 19.9

⚠ïļ Fouls

25014712136412714111013107811106131121251019252317191624A·ALLH·DUNA·QUEH·RAIA·HEAH·ARBH·AYRA·DUNH·QUEA·ALL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

DunfermlineDunfermline

For 4.9 · Against 6.9 · Total 11.8

ðŸšĐ Corners

1706755325939736838665121310514121014111217H·ARBA·DUNH·MORA·RAIH·HEAA·AYRH·QUEA·ALLH·INVA·PAR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.4

ðŸŸĻ Cards

80232133442223125216842042H·ARBA·DUNH·MORA·RAIH·HEAA·AYRH·QUEA·ALLH·INVA·PAR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 12.0 · Total 22.9

⚠ïļ Fouls

28089131498151316114231114121311810717271728272725251917H·ARBA·DUNH·MORA·RAIH·HEAA·AYRH·QUEA·ALLH·INVA·PAR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Inverness CTInverness CT

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)11.311.411.23.12.83.320.318.921.7
vs Stronger (41)11.511.911.33.23.13.320.719.321.8
vs Similar (9)10.29.811.02.32.03.018.817.721.0
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line70%71%69%30%21%38%42%29%54%
% under line30%29%31%70%79%62%58%71%46%
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DunfermlineDunfermline

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.69.711.73.23.72.720.319.920.7
vs Stronger (1)12.012.0-8.08.0-27.027.0-
vs Similar (43)10.69.411.93.23.52.920.419.721.1
vs Weaker (6)10.210.59.52.83.81.018.219.216.0
% over line64%56%74%46%59%30%38%33%43%
% under line36%44%26%54%41%70%62%67%57%
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Alloa
12.0
Inverness CT
11.3
Morton
11.0
Queen of Sth
10.7
Heart Of Midlothian
10.6
Dunfermline
10.6
Ayr
10.4
Dundee
10.1
Raith Rvs
9.9
Arbroath
9.9

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Heart Of Midlothian
4.2
Arbroath
3.5
Raith Rvs
3.5
Dundee
3.5
Dunfermline
3.2
Ayr
3.2
Inverness CT
3.1
Morton
3.0
Queen of Sth
2.8
Alloa
2.6

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Heart Of Midlothian
27.1
Dundee
24.3
Raith Rvs
21.7
Arbroath
21.6
Ayr
21.5
Alloa
20.9
Morton
20.5
Inverness CT
20.3
Dunfermline
20.3
Queen of Sth
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
63.8%
Under 9.5
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.1%
Under 3.5
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
51.3%
Under 21.5
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Inverness CTInverness CT

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L10W11D00D01L00D10W10W01L10WA·ALL07/03H·QUE10/03A·DUN17/10H·AYR24/10H·ARB31/10A·HEA07/11H·RAI21/11A·QUE04/12H·DUN12/12A·ALL19/12
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.400.600.400.800.40
vs Stronger (25)0.760.360.670.420.850.31
vs Similar (5)0.400.600.330.330.501.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DunfermlineDunfermline

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D11D20W00D00D01L01L01L00DA·PAR10/03H·INV17/10A·ALL24/10H·QUE31/10A·AYR07/11H·HEA20/11A·RAI05/12H·MOR12/12A·DUN19/12H·ARB26/12
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.670.810.500.430.86
vs Stronger (1)0.000.000.000.00--
vs Similar (26)0.690.650.920.460.460.85
vs Weaker (3)0.331.000.501.000.001.00
Clean sheet %47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Inverness CT over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Inverness CTInverness CT

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D21W02L11D30W12L10W20W21W02LA·ALL07/03H·QUE10/03A·DUN17/10H·AYR24/10H·ARB31/10A·HEA07/11H·RAI21/11A·QUE04/12H·DUN12/12A·ALL19/12
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.871.070.730.471.00
vs Stronger (25)0.720.800.920.670.540.92
vs Similar (5)1.001.201.671.000.001.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DunfermlineDunfermline

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D20W30W12L00D21W21W11D32W10WA·PAR10/03H·INV17/10A·ALL24/10H·QUE31/10A·AYR07/11H·HEA20/11A·RAI05/12H·MOR12/12A·DUN19/12H·ARB26/12
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.671.190.561.070.79
vs Stronger (1)2.001.002.001.00--
vs Similar (26)1.120.651.080.541.150.77
vs Weaker (3)1.000.671.500.500.001.00
Clean sheet %43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Inverness CT over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards92.1%-------✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards82.4%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.581.7%-------✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls78.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners75.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (30)
€22m
DUN (21)
€5m
DUN (26)
€4m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
Inverness CT's squad is €4m less valuable than Dunfermline's (€1m vs €4m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (12)
€12m
DUN (9)
€2m
DUN (7)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
Inverness CT's attack is €1m less valuable than Dunfermline's (€0m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (6)
€4m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
Inverness CT and Dunfermline have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (12)
€6m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (13)
€2m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
Inverness CT's defence is €2m less valuable than Dunfermline's (€0m vs €2m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
5
IC wins
1
Draws
2
DUN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Inverness CT vs Dunfermline · H/A from IC
DateH/AGameScore
17/10/20ADunfermline Vs IC3-1
25/02/20ADunfermline Vs IC1-2
21/12/19HIC Vs Dunfermline2-0
14/09/19ADunfermline Vs IC0-1
04/05/19HIC Vs Dunfermline1-0
16/02/19ADunfermline Vs IC1-0
30/10/18HIC Vs Dunfermline2-2
01/09/18ADunfermline Vs IC0-3

Inverness CTInverness CT

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/12/20AAlloa Vs IC2-1
12/12/20HIC Vs Dundee2-2
04/12/20AQueen of Sth Vs IC0-3
21/11/20HIC Vs Raith Rvs2-0
07/11/20AHeart Of Midlothian Vs IC2-1
31/10/20HIC Vs Arbroath3-1
24/10/20HIC Vs Ayr1-1
17/10/20ADunfermline Vs IC3-1
10/03/20HIC Vs Queen of Sth3-1
07/03/20AAlloa Vs IC2-0

DunfermlineDunfermline

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/12/20HDUN Vs Arbroath1-0
19/12/20ADundee Vs DUN3-3
12/12/20HDUN Vs Morton1-2
05/12/20ARaith Rvs Vs DUN2-2
20/11/20HDUN Vs Heart Of Midlothian2-1
07/11/20AAyr Vs DUN0-0
31/10/20HDUN Vs Queen of Sth3-2
24/10/20AAlloa Vs DUN1-4
17/10/20HDUN Vs Inverness CT3-1
10/03/20APartick Vs DUN1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Inverness CT
Inverness CT
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWDL1.64
HomeWDWWD1.83
AwayLLLWL1.46
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%54%46%
AVG goals2.622.712.54
Over 1.5 %78%79%77%
Over 2.5 %52%50%54%
Over 3.5 %26%33%19%
Scored1.441.621.27
Conceded1.181.081.27
BTTS48%50%46%
Clean Sheet36%38%35%
Corners11.3011.3811.23
Cards3.062.833.27
Dunfermline
Dunfermline
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 5 Wins / 4 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLDW1.42
HomeWWWLW1.67
AwayDWDDD1.13
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%52%26%
AVG goals2.562.482.65
Over 1.5 %66%67%65%
Over 2.5 %42%41%43%
Over 3.5 %28%26%30%
Scored1.401.481.30
Conceded1.161.001.35
BTTS48%44%52%
Clean Sheet28%30%26%
Corners10.609.6711.70
Cards3.223.672.70

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian2757
63%
2.1
6324+39
3.2
78%
59%
41%
10.1
56%
3.0
41%
25.5
74%
22
12462.30.9
-
2DundeeDundee2745
44%
1.7
4940+9
3.3
89%
63%
44%
10.5
67%
3.0
33%
24.7
67%
5
1221.81.5
-
3
RR
Raith Rvs
2743
44%
1.6
4536+9
3.0
70%
56%
44%
11.2
67%
4.5
74%
23.7
74%
0
0001.71.3
-
4DunfermlineDunfermline2739
37%
1.4
3834+4
2.7
59%
48%
37%
11.1
81%
2.9
33%
22.0
52%
4
2021.41.3
-
5Inverness CTInverness CT2736
30%
1.3
3631+5
2.5
78%
44%
26%
10.4
48%
3.5
48%
24.0
63%
1
0001.31.1
-
6
QO
Queen of Sth
2732
33%
1.2
3851-13
3.3
85%
59%
41%
10.3
56%
3.5
48%
21.8
56%
0
0001.41.9
-
7ArbroathArbroath2730
26%
1.1
2834-6
2.3
59%
37%
26%
9.2
56%
3.4
52%
24.5
67%
1
0001.01.3
-
8
A
Ayr
2729
22%
1.1
3137-6
2.5
74%
41%
30%
10.5
63%
3.1
48%
22.2
52%
0
0001.11.4
-
9MortonMorton2729
22%
1.1
2233-11
2.0
59%
30%
19%
10.4
70%
3.0
41%
22.1
48%
1
0000.81.2
-
10
A
Alloa
2722
19%
0.8
3060-30
3.3
89%
67%
41%
10.6
59%
3.4
56%
26.0
78%
0
0001.12.2
-
Scotland: Championship 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →

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