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Inverness CT vs Dunfermline Result & Analysis

Date: 26/03/2022
Time: 15:00
Final 2-0
Inverness CT
Inverness CT
Vs
50%
28%
22%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dunfermline
Dunfermline
Scotland: Championship
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Inverness CT win✓ Hit
50.2%
Avg Implied 46.8% · @ 1.98
Edge
+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.7%
Avg Implied 28.1% · @ 3.30
Edge
-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline win✗ Miss
22.1%
Avg Implied 25.1% · @ 3.69
Edge
-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Inverness CTInverness CT

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D11D01L01L33D12L11D01L30W32WH·QUE15/01A·DUN22/01A·KIL29/01H·MOR05/02H·PAR09/02H·AYR19/02A·HAM25/02A·PAR04/03H·ARB12/03A·RAI19/03
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.370.971.471.071.270.87
vs Stronger (23)1.261.131.551.271.001.00
vs Similar (7)1.710.431.250.502.330.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DunfermlineDunfermline

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W11D20W11D12L00D01L22D11D41WH·HAM15/01H·INV22/01A·QUE29/01A·AYR05/02A·KIL12/02H·KIL26/02A·ARB05/03A·HAM12/03H·MOR18/03H·PAR22/03
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.501.131.400.931.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)1.041.591.231.540.861.64
vs Weaker (3)1.000.670.500.502.001.00
Clean sheet %27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%222%314%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.3%
Under 1.5
26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.7%
@ 2.11+2.5%
Under 2.5
53.3%
@ 1.67-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.1%
Under 3.5
74.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.4%
No
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
1-0
11.2%
2-0 ✓
9.7%
2-1
9.4%
0-0
9.1%
0-1
6.4%
1-2
5.8%
3-0
5.1%
Inverness CT goals ↓
Dunfermline goals →
01234
09.1%6.4%3.7%1.2%0.3%
111%13%5.8%1.9%0.5%
29.7%9.4%4.6%1.5%0.4%
35.1%4.9%2.4%0.8%0.2%
42.0%1.9%0.9%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Inverness CT goals (down), columns = Dunfermline goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kilmarnock
1.86
Arbroath
1.81
Inverness CT
1.64
Partick
1.44
Raith Rvs
1.39
Hamilton
1.17
Morton
1.11
Ayr
1.08
Dunfermline
0.97
Queen of Sth
0.92
Inverness CT is 0.67 points better than Dunfermline in terms of average points per game (1.64 vs 0.97).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Arbroath
1.50
Inverness CT
1.47
Kilmarnock
1.39
Partick
1.28
Raith Rvs
1.22
Ayr
1.08
Hamilton
1.06
Dunfermline
1.00
Queen of Sth
1.00
Morton
1.00
Inverness CT is 0.47 goals better than Dunfermline in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 1.00).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kilmarnock
0.75
Arbroath
0.78
Inverness CT
0.94
Partick
1.11
Raith Rvs
1.22
Morton
1.31
Ayr
1.44
Dunfermline
1.47
Hamilton
1.47
Queen of Sth
1.50
Inverness CT is 0.53 goals better than Dunfermline in terms of goals conceded per game (0.94 vs 1.47).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Inverness CTInverness CT

For 4.7 · Against 3.4 · Total 8.1

ðŸšĐ Corners

1203633424410175475222529668111211747A·RAIH·ARBA·PARA·HAMH·AYRH·PARH·MORA·KILA·DUNH·QUE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.6

ðŸŸĻ Cards

80442321211122133228503313364A·RAIH·ARBA·PARA·HAMH·AYRH·PARH·MORA·KILA·DUNH·QUE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 10.0 · Total 22.0

⚠ïļ Fouls

300106131078181281414613101414121211816231530222023282419A·RAIH·ARBA·PARA·HAMH·AYRH·PARH·MORA·KILA·DUNH·QUE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

DunfermlineDunfermline

For 4.0 · Against 5.2 · Total 9.2

ðŸšĐ Corners

170371322433151528892257101566661017412H·PARH·MORA·HAMA·ARBH·KILA·KILA·AYRA·QUEH·INVH·HAM
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.9

ðŸŸĻ Cards

90121221231453333213143496063H·PARH·MORA·HAMA·ARBH·KILA·KILA·AYRA·QUEH·INVH·HAM
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.9 · Against 12.8 · Total 22.7

⚠ïļ Fouls

28078814889131116712121610161212151315221622271928262428H·PARH·MORA·HAMA·ARBH·KILA·KILA·AYRA·QUEH·INVH·HAM
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Inverness CTInverness CT

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.49.79.13.63.83.523.522.724.3
vs Stronger (38)9.29.98.63.83.83.923.722.624.6
vs Similar (12)10.09.011.02.93.72.223.223.223.2
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line42%50%35%46%50%42%58%58%58%
% under line58%50%65%54%50%58%42%42%42%
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DunfermlineDunfermline

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.610.610.63.02.93.121.220.821.6
vs Stronger (2)11.08.014.01.52.01.027.026.028.0
vs Similar (43)10.811.210.42.92.73.120.920.021.7
vs Weaker (5)8.87.311.04.65.04.022.025.017.5
% over line66%60%72%38%36%40%48%48%48%
% under line34%40%28%62%64%60%52%52%52%
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Dunfermline
10.6
Raith Rvs
10.4
Hamilton
10.4
Morton
10.3
Queen of Sth
10.2
Arbroath
10.0
Partick
10.0
Ayr
9.9
Kilmarnock
9.6
Inverness CT
9.4

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Raith Rvs
4.2
Inverness CT
3.6
Hamilton
3.5
Arbroath
3.5
Partick
3.4
Kilmarnock
3.4
Ayr
3.2
Queen of Sth
3.0
Dunfermline
3.0
Morton
2.9

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Kilmarnock
24.1
Hamilton
24.0
Inverness CT
23.5
Arbroath
23.1
Raith Rvs
21.9
Dunfermline
21.2
Partick
21.2
Ayr
21.1
Queen of Sth
21.0
Morton
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
48.9%
Under 9.5
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.5%
Under 3.5
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
48.0%
Under 21.5
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Inverness CTInverness CT

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W01L01L22D01L11D00D20W12LH·QUE15/01A·DUN22/01A·KIL29/01H·MOR05/02H·PAR09/02H·AYR19/02A·HAM25/02A·PAR04/03H·ARB12/03A·RAI19/03
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.500.470.470.670.53
vs Stronger (23)0.480.570.360.550.580.58
vs Similar (7)0.860.290.750.251.000.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DunfermlineDunfermline

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L20W11D00D00D01L11D01L31WH·HAM15/01H·INV22/01A·QUE29/01A·AYR05/02A·KIL12/02H·KIL26/02A·ARB05/03A·HAM12/03H·MOR18/03H·PAR22/03
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.800.530.730.470.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.560.810.620.770.500.86
vs Weaker (3)0.000.670.000.500.001.00
Clean sheet %43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Inverness CT over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Inverness CTInverness CT

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W01L00D00D11D11D00D01L10W20WH·QUE15/01A·DUN22/01A·KIL29/01H·MOR05/02H·PAR09/02H·AYR19/02A·HAM25/02A·PAR04/03H·ARB12/03A·RAI19/03
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.471.000.600.600.33
vs Stronger (23)0.780.571.180.730.420.42
vs Similar (7)0.860.140.500.251.330.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DunfermlineDunfermline

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W00D00D12L00D00D11D10W10WH·HAM15/01H·INV22/01A·QUE29/01A·AYR05/02A·KIL12/02H·KIL26/02A·ARB05/03A·HAM12/03H·MOR18/03H·PAR22/03
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.700.600.670.470.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.480.780.620.770.360.79
vs Weaker (3)1.000.000.500.002.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Inverness CT over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards87.5%-------✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls81.3%-------✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards75.0%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.574.9%-------✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners74.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.573.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KIL (24)
€7m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
Inverness CT's squad is €4m less valuable than Dunfermline's (€1m vs €4m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KIL (9)
€3m
DUN (9)
€2m
PAR (6)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
Inverness CT's attack is €1m less valuable than Dunfermline's (€0m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KIL (5)
€2m
PAR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
Inverness CT and Dunfermline have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (13)
€2m
PAR (8)
€1m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
Inverness CT's defence is €2m less valuable than Dunfermline's (€0m vs €2m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
IC wins
3
Draws
2
DUN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Inverness CT vs Dunfermline · H/A from IC
DateH/AGameScore
22/01/22ADunfermline Vs IC1-1
13/11/21HIC Vs Dunfermline1-2
18/09/21ADunfermline Vs IC0-0
20/03/21ADunfermline Vs IC0-1
29/12/20HIC Vs Dunfermline1-1
17/10/20ADunfermline Vs IC3-1
25/02/20ADunfermline Vs IC1-2
21/12/19HIC Vs Dunfermline2-0

Inverness CTInverness CT

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/03/22ARaith Rvs Vs IC2-3
12/03/22HIC Vs Arbroath3-0
04/03/22APartick Vs IC1-0
25/02/22AHamilton Vs IC1-1
19/02/22HIC Vs Ayr1-2
09/02/22HIC Vs Partick3-3
05/02/22HIC Vs Morton0-1
29/01/22AKilmarnock Vs IC1-0
22/01/22ADunfermline Vs IC1-1
15/01/22HIC Vs Queen of Sth2-2

DunfermlineDunfermline

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/03/22HDUN Vs Partick4-1
18/03/22HDUN Vs Morton1-1
12/03/22AHamilton Vs DUN2-2
05/03/22AArbroath Vs DUN1-0
26/02/22HDUN Vs Kilmarnock0-0
12/02/22AKilmarnock Vs DUN2-1
05/02/22AAyr Vs DUN1-1
29/01/22AQueen of Sth Vs DUN0-2
22/01/22HDUN Vs Inverness CT1-1
15/01/22HDUN Vs Hamilton1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Inverness CT
Inverness CT
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLWW1.42
HomeDLDLW1.38
AwayDLDLW1.46
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%33%35%
AVG goals2.302.292.31
Over 1.5 %64%62%65%
Over 2.5 %40%42%38%
Over 3.5 %20%21%19%
Scored1.281.251.31
Conceded1.021.041.00
BTTS56%54%58%
Clean Sheet30%29%31%
Corners9.389.679.12
Cards3.603.753.46
Dunfermline
Dunfermline
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 3 Wins / 5 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDDW1.08
HomeWDDDW1.52
AwayWDLLD0.64
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%36%8%
AVG goals2.482.402.56
Over 1.5 %62%60%64%
Over 2.5 %44%48%40%
Over 3.5 %30%28%32%
Scored1.081.280.88
Conceded1.401.121.68
BTTS48%44%52%
Clean Sheet28%40%16%
Corners10.6210.6410.60
Cards3.002.923.08

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1KilmarnockKilmarnock3667
56%
1.9
5027+23
2.1
67%
36%
14%
9.9
47%
3.2
36%
22.6
64%
7
3231.40.8
-
2ArbroathArbroath3665
47%
1.8
5428+26
2.3
61%
44%
22%
10.3
58%
3.3
50%
21.8
47%
1
0001.50.8
-
3Inverness CTInverness CT3659
44%
1.6
5334+19
2.4
64%
47%
22%
8.8
42%
3.3
39%
21.9
50%
1
0001.50.9
-
4PartickPartick3652
39%
1.4
4640+6
2.4
56%
44%
33%
9.6
50%
3.1
36%
20.7
44%
3
1111.31.1
-
5
RR
Raith Rvs
3650
33%
1.4
4444+0
2.4
67%
39%
22%
10.2
53%
3.7
58%
21.2
47%
0
0001.21.2
-
6
H
Hamilton
3642
28%
1.2
3853-15
2.5
69%
42%
25%
10.4
47%
3.9
56%
23.2
61%
0
0001.11.5
-
7MortonMorton3640
25%
1.1
3647-11
2.3
64%
42%
22%
10.4
61%
2.8
31%
20.1
33%
1
0001.01.3
-
8
A
Ayr
3639
25%
1.1
3952-13
2.5
81%
47%
28%
10.2
61%
3.4
53%
20.3
39%
0
0001.11.4
-
9DunfermlineDunfermline3635
19%
1.0
3653-17
2.5
72%
47%
25%
10.1
56%
3.2
42%
21.1
50%
4
2021.01.5
-
10
QO
Queen of Sth
3633
22%
0.9
3654-18
2.5
67%
50%
19%
10.6
64%
2.8
28%
19.7
36%
0
0001.01.5
-
Scotland: Championship 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →

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