Inverness CT face Heart Of Midlothian in a match where the model favours an away win, with a 42% chance of victory for Hearts and a 30% chance for the Caledonian side, while a draw sits at 28%. The expected total of 2.7 goals points to a moderately high-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.4% probability. Inverness, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.42 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, whereas Hearts, on the road against a weaker side, average 1.27 scored and 1.18 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 goals at 76.0% and Under 3.5 at 71.9%. Hearts’ recent unbeaten run of five games, highlighted by a 2-1 win over St Johnstone, contrasts with Inverness’s five-match sequence of losses and draws, including a 1-3 defeat to Stenhousemuir. The match is poised for a tight contest, with the away side slightly ahead.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Heart Of Midlothian, fell short as the match finished 1-1, a draw that shocked the model’s prediction of an away win with a 42% probability. Inverness CT, coming off a defeat and with a recent form of LDLDD, managed to hold the visitors to a stalemate, extending their own run of resilience. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, at 76%, was correct, as the game produced two goals. Likewise, Under 3.5, with a 71.9% chance, hit its mark. The model’s call for an away win was wrong, but its other picks proved accurate.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Inverness CT win✗ Miss
29.7%
Avg Implied 21.6% · @ 4.29
Edge
+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
28.1%
Avg Implied 24.2% · @ 3.83
Edge
+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian win✗ Miss
42.2%
Avg Implied 54.2% · @ 1.71
Edge
-12.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Inverness CT
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.27
1.53
1.07
1.27
1.47
vs Stronger (24)
1.38
1.17
1.42
1.00
1.33
1.33
vs Similar (6)
1.50
1.67
2.00
1.33
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.43
2.31
1.50
1.50
1.36
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.67
1.00
1.50
0.00
5.00
vs Similar (6)
1.83
1.33
1.00
1.75
3.50
0.50
vs Weaker (21)
2.14
1.29
3.10
1.40
1.27
1.18
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.0%
Under 1.5
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.1%
@ 1.61-8.0%
Under 2.5
49.9%
@ 2.23+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.1%
Under 3.5
71.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.2%
No
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.4%
1-2
9.0%
0-1
8.9%
0-0
8.1%
0-2
7.5%
2-1
7.3%
1-0
7.0%
2-2
5.4%
Inverness CT goals ↓
Heart Of Midlothian goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
8.9%
7.5%
3.7%
1.4%
1
7.0%
13%
9.0%
4.4%
1.6%
2
5.0%
7.3%
5.4%
2.7%
1.0%
3
2.0%
2.9%
2.2%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.6%
0.9%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Inverness CT goals (down), columns = Heart Of Midlothian goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Heart Of Midlothian
2.11
Dundee
1.67
Raith Rvs
1.59
Dunfermline
1.44
Inverness CT
1.33
Queen of Sth
1.19
Arbroath
1.11
Morton
1.07
Ayr
1.07
Alloa
0.81
Inverness CT is 0.78 points worse than Heart Of Midlothian in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 2.11).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Heart Of Midlothian
2.33
Dundee
1.81
Raith Rvs
1.67
Dunfermline
1.41
Queen of Sth
1.41
Inverness CT
1.33
Ayr
1.15
Alloa
1.11
Arbroath
1.04
Morton
0.81
Inverness CT is 1.00 goals worse than Heart Of Midlothian in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 2.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Heart Of Midlothian
0.89
Inverness CT
1.15
Morton
1.22
Dunfermline
1.26
Arbroath
1.26
Raith Rvs
1.33
Ayr
1.37
Dundee
1.48
Queen of Sth
1.89
Alloa
2.22
Inverness CT is 0.26 goals worse than Heart Of Midlothian in terms of goals conceded per game (1.15 vs 0.89).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Inverness CT
For 6.5 · Against 4.9 · Total 11.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 9.4 · Total 20.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Heart Of Midlothian
For 8.5 · Against 2.7 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 13.9 · Total 26.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Inverness CT
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.3
11.4
11.3
3.0
2.9
3.2
20.4
19.2
21.6
vs Stronger (40)
11.5
11.8
11.2
3.2
3.1
3.3
20.5
19.5
21.4
vs Similar (10)
10.7
9.6
11.8
2.4
2.2
2.6
20.2
18.2
22.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
66%
68%
64%
32%
24%
40%
38%
28%
48%
% under line
34%
32%
36%
68%
76%
60%
62%
72%
52%
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
11.3
10.6
4.0
4.0
4.0
26.5
25.6
27.4
vs Stronger (7)
10.4
10.0
10.8
4.6
5.7
3.8
25.0
25.0
25.0
vs Similar (11)
10.3
11.4
9.3
5.0
5.2
4.8
29.3
28.6
29.8
vs Weaker (32)
11.3
11.5
11.1
3.6
3.4
3.8
25.9
24.9
27.1
% over line
66%
68%
64%
62%
64%
60%
76%
80%
72%
% under line
34%
32%
36%
38%
36%
40%
24%
20%
28%
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Alloa
11.5
Inverness CT
11.3
Heart Of Midlothian
11.0
Morton
10.8
Dunfermline
10.7
Queen of Sth
10.6
Ayr
10.3
Raith Rvs
10.3
Dundee
10.1
Arbroath
9.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Heart Of Midlothian
4.0
Raith Rvs
3.6
Arbroath
3.4
Dundee
3.3
Ayr
3.2
Dunfermline
3.1
Inverness CT
3.0
Queen of Sth
3.0
Morton
3.0
Alloa
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Heart Of Midlothian
26.5
Dundee
24.8
Arbroath
22.2
Raith Rvs
22.1
Alloa
21.8
Ayr
21.4
Inverness CT
20.4
Morton
20.4
Dunfermline
20.3
Queen of Sth
20.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Inverness CT
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.43
0.40
0.40
0.80
0.47
vs Stronger (24)
0.62
0.38
0.42
0.42
0.83
0.33
vs Similar (6)
0.50
0.67
0.33
0.33
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.53
0.81
0.69
0.50
0.36
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (6)
0.33
0.67
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (21)
0.86
0.43
1.30
0.50
0.45
0.36
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Inverness CT over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Inverness CT
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.83
1.13
0.67
0.47
1.00
vs Stronger (24)
0.75
0.79
1.00
0.58
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (6)
1.00
1.00
1.67
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.90
1.50
0.81
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.67
1.00
0.50
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (6)
1.50
0.67
1.00
0.75
2.50
0.50
vs Weaker (21)
1.29
0.86
1.80
0.90
0.82
0.82
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Inverness CT over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Heart Of Midlothian · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
James Wilson50%
Calvin Miller33%
Josh McPake25%
Tom Renaud25%
Oisin McEntee17%
Cláudio Braga17%
Pierre Landry Kaboré17%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Rogers Mato0%
Jordi Altena0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Laurent Mendy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Amadou Ba-Sy33%
Pierre Landry Kaboré33%
Tomas Magnusson20%
Oisin McEntee17%
Cláudio Braga17%
Jordi Altena17%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
Rogers Mato0%
James Wilson0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Laurent Mendy0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cláudio Braga33%
Rogers Mato33%
Josh McPake25%
Sabah Kerjota25%
Blair Spittal17%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Tom Renaud0%
Oisin McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Pierre Landry Kaboré0%
James Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
Laurent Mendy0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cláudio Braga50%
Laurent Mendy33%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
Oisin McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Pierre Landry Kaboré0%
Rogers Mato0%
James Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (30)
€22m
DUN (21)
€5m
DUN (26)
€4m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
Inverness CT's squad is €22m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€1m vs €22m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (12)
€12m
DUN (9)
€2m
DUN (7)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
Inverness CT's attack is €12m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€0m vs €12m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (6)
€4m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
Inverness CT's midfield is €4m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€0m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (12)
€6m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (13)
€2m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
Inverness CT's defence is €5m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€0m vs €6m).
Scotland: Championship 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
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Dundee
Dunfermline
Arbroath
Morton