Inverness CT is tipped to win, a 55% chance against a 28% draw and 17% for Morton. The match is expected to see about 2.3 goals, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 28%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-0 for Inverness CT, a 13.9% chance. Inverness has been prolific at home, averaging 3.0 goals scored and conceding only 0.5 against similar opposition, while Morton’s away form shows just over a goal per game and a high 2.55 goals conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals (99.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.2%), Under 6.5 (99.0%), Under 5.5 (96.8%), Away under 2.5 goals (95.7%), Home +2 handicap (94.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.5%) and Under 4.5 (91.1%). Inverness comes off a draw, whereas Morton is recovering from five straight defeats.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Inverness CT win
52.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Morton win
18.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Inverness CT
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.87
1.79
0.64
0.94
1.06
vs Stronger (24)
1.50
0.83
1.85
0.62
1.09
1.09
vs Similar (2)
0.50
0.00
-
-
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.67
1.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Morton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.67
0.71
0.86
1.00
2.38
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (26)
0.92
1.58
0.77
0.92
1.08
2.23
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
67.7%
Under 1.5
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
39.9%
Under 2.5
60.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.7%
Under 3.5
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
43.7%
No
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.0%
1-1
13.3%
0-0
11.4%
2-0
11.3%
2-1
9.0%
0-1
6.9%
3-0
5.6%
1-2
4.8%
Inverness CT goals ↓
Morton goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
6.9%
3.2%
0.9%
0.2%
1
14%
13%
4.8%
1.3%
0.3%
2
11%
9.0%
3.6%
0.9%
0.2%
3
5.6%
4.4%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
4
2.1%
1.7%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Inverness CT goals (down), columns = Morton goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Partick
1.85
Livingston
1.73
Dunfermline
1.54
Arbroath
1.48
Raith Rovers
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Queen's Park
1.14
Ayr Utd
1.08
Morton
1.04
Inverness CT
0.99
Inverness CT is 0.05 points worse than Morton in terms of average points per game (0.99 vs 1.04).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Livingston
1.52
Partick
1.50
Dunfermline
1.44
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Arbroath
1.25
Raith Rovers
1.19
Ayr Utd
1.06
Morton
1.00
Queen's Park
0.97
Inverness CT
0.87
Inverness CT is 0.13 goals worse than Morton in terms of goals scored per game (0.87 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Livingston
0.91
Partick
0.96
Stenhousemuir
1.00
Dunfermline
1.02
Arbroath
1.15
Raith Rovers
1.17
Ayr Utd
1.31
Queen's Park
1.33
Morton
1.38
Inverness CT
1.59
Inverness CT is 0.21 goals worse than Morton in terms of goals conceded per game (1.59 vs 1.38).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Inverness CT
For 5.3 · Against 2.6 · Total 7.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 10.4 · Total 21.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Morton
For 5.0 · Against 4.9 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 11.1 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Inverness CT
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.7
8.1
2.6
2.5
2.7
21.8
21.3
22.4
vs Stronger (43)
9.0
9.9
8.1
2.4
2.1
2.7
21.5
20.8
22.1
vs Similar (2)
4.0
-
4.0
0.5
-
0.5
18.0
-
18.0
vs Weaker (5)
9.5
8.5
10.5
5.0
6.5
4.0
25.8
25.0
26.5
% over line
37%
42%
32%
34%
30%
37%
50%
47%
53%
% under line
63%
58%
68%
66%
70%
63%
50%
53%
47%
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Morton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.8
10.0
0.7
0.6
0.8
23.1
23.6
22.6
vs Stronger (3)
10.3
9.0
11.0
4.3
8.0
2.5
22.7
29.0
19.5
vs Similar (45)
9.7
10.0
9.3
0.5
0.3
0.7
23.3
22.2
24.7
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
60%
60%
60%
6%
4%
8%
60%
60%
60%
% under line
40%
40%
40%
94%
96%
92%
40%
40%
40%
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Morton
10.9
Partick
10.4
Ayr Utd
10.0
Livingston
9.9
Arbroath
9.6
Dunfermline
9.3
Inverness CT
9.1
Queen's Park
9.0
Stenhousemuir
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Stenhousemuir
4.8
Morton
4.5
Partick
4.4
Livingston
4.2
Ayr Utd
4.0
Dunfermline
3.9
Arbroath
3.6
Inverness CT
3.2
Raith Rovers
3.0
Queen's Park
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stenhousemuir
25.4
Livingston
25.3
Ayr Utd
22.0
Morton
21.6
Inverness CT
21.6
Arbroath
20.9
Dunfermline
20.7
Partick
19.9
Queen's Park
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
49.8%
Under 9.5
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
53.3%
Under 3.5
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
52.4%
Under 21.5
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Inverness CT or Draw
81.1%
Avg Implied -
52%
29%
19%
covers Inverness CT + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT or Morton
71.2%
Avg Implied -
52%
29%
19%
covers Inverness CT + Morton
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Morton
47.6%
Avg Implied -
52%
29%
19%
covers Draw + Morton
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Inverness CT over/under 0.5
Over
77.4%
Under
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 1.5
Over
43.8%
Under
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 2.5
Over
18.8%
Under
81.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 3.5
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 0.5
Over
54.9%
Under
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 1.5
Over
19.0%
Under
81.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 2.5
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 3.5
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Inverness CT, so a minus line means Inverness CT give that many goals of a start and Morton receive them. At -1, Inverness CT must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Inverness CT win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Inverness CT)
Inverness CT -2
11.0%
Draw -2
16.4%
Morton +2
72.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Inverness CT)
Inverness CT -1
27.5%
Draw -1
24.9%
Morton +1
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Inverness CT)
Inverness CT +1
81.1%
Draw +1
12.8%
Morton -1
6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Inverness CT)
Inverness CT +2
93.9%
Draw +2
4.7%
Morton -2
1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Inverness CT
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.30
0.79
0.36
0.38
0.25
vs Stronger (24)
0.58
0.29
0.77
0.31
0.36
0.27
vs Similar (2)
0.50
0.00
-
-
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Morton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.50
0.36
0.36
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.50
0.38
0.38
0.69
0.62
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Inverness CT over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Inverness CT
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.57
1.00
0.29
0.56
0.81
vs Stronger (24)
0.92
0.54
1.08
0.31
0.73
0.82
vs Similar (2)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Morton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
1.17
0.36
0.50
0.38
1.75
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (26)
0.38
1.08
0.38
0.54
0.38
1.62
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Inverness CT over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
STE (2)
€0m
Inverness CT and Morton have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (9)
€2m
LIV (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
Inverness CT and Morton have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
Inverness CT and Morton have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (13)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
Inverness CT and Morton have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stenhousemuir
Partick
Raith Rovers
Arbroath
Livingston
Ayr Utd
Dunfermline
Queen's Park