Inverness CT’s defensive record at home is modest, conceding an average of one goal per match against weaker opposition, while Stenhousemuir’s away form shows they can score 1.5 goals and keep 0.86 goals against stronger teams. The model favours a home win, with a 36% chance, a 36% chance of a draw, and a 29% chance of an away victory. The expected total is 1.8 goals, and the most likely scoreline is 0-0 with an 18% probability. The match is projected to be tight and low-scoring. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.7%), Under 5.5 (99.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.3%), Under 4.5 (96.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (94.8%), and Home under 2.5 goals (92.7%). Inverness CT are coming off a defeat, while Stenhousemuir are on a two-game winning run, adding intrigue to an evenly balanced contest.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Inverness CT win
35.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
35.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir win
28.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Inverness CT
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.87
1.79
0.64
0.94
1.06
vs Stronger (24)
1.50
0.83
1.85
0.62
1.09
1.09
vs Similar (2)
0.50
0.00
-
-
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.67
1.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Stenhousemuir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stenhousemuir
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.67
1.50
0.50
1.50
0.86
vs Stronger (29)
1.48
0.69
1.47
0.53
1.50
0.86
vs Similar (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
54.8%
Under 1.5
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
26.7%
Under 2.5
73.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
10.7%
Under 3.5
89.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
36.2%
No
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
18.0%
1-0
14.7%
1-1
14.6%
0-1
12.5%
2-0
7.7%
2-1
6.4%
0-2
5.8%
1-2
5.5%
Inverness CT goals ↓
Stenhousemuir goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
18%
13%
5.8%
1.6%
0.3%
1
15%
15%
5.5%
1.5%
0.3%
2
7.7%
6.4%
2.7%
0.7%
0.2%
3
2.5%
2.0%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
4
0.6%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Inverness CT goals (down), columns = Stenhousemuir goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Partick
1.85
Livingston
1.73
Dunfermline
1.54
Arbroath
1.48
Raith Rovers
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Queen's Park
1.14
Ayr Utd
1.08
Morton
1.04
Inverness CT
0.99
Inverness CT is 0.26 points worse than Stenhousemuir in terms of average points per game (0.99 vs 1.25).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Livingston
1.52
Partick
1.50
Dunfermline
1.44
Arbroath
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Raith Rovers
1.19
Ayr Utd
1.06
Morton
1.00
Queen's Park
0.97
Inverness CT
0.87
Inverness CT is 0.38 goals worse than Stenhousemuir in terms of goals scored per game (0.87 vs 1.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Livingston
0.91
Partick
0.96
Stenhousemuir
1.00
Dunfermline
1.02
Arbroath
1.15
Raith Rovers
1.17
Ayr Utd
1.31
Queen's Park
1.33
Morton
1.38
Inverness CT
1.59
Inverness CT is 0.59 goals worse than Stenhousemuir in terms of goals conceded per game (1.59 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Inverness CT
For 5.3 · Against 2.6 · Total 7.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 10.4 · Total 21.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stenhousemuir
For 4.9 · Against 3.6 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 13.7 · Total 27.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Inverness CT
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.7
8.2
2.5
2.4
2.7
21.8
21.3
22.4
vs Stronger (42)
9.1
9.9
8.1
2.4
2.1
2.7
21.4
20.8
22.1
vs Similar (3)
4.0
-
4.0
0.3
0.0
0.5
18.0
-
18.0
vs Weaker (5)
9.5
8.5
10.5
5.0
6.5
4.0
25.8
25.0
26.5
% over line
38%
42%
33%
34%
29%
38%
49%
47%
50%
% under line
62%
58%
67%
66%
71%
62%
51%
53%
50%
This opponent (Stenhousemuir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stenhousemuir
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
8.7
8.4
2.9
2.5
3.5
26.9
26.9
27.0
vs Stronger (49)
8.6
8.7
8.4
3.0
2.6
3.5
26.9
26.9
27.0
vs Similar (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
41%
43%
40%
44%
37%
52%
83%
86%
80%
% under line
59%
57%
60%
56%
63%
48%
17%
14%
20%
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Morton
10.9
Partick
10.4
Ayr Utd
10.0
Livingston
9.9
Arbroath
9.6
Dunfermline
9.3
Inverness CT
9.1
Queen's Park
9.0
Stenhousemuir
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Stenhousemuir
4.8
Morton
4.5
Partick
4.4
Livingston
4.2
Ayr Utd
4.0
Dunfermline
3.9
Arbroath
3.6
Inverness CT
3.2
Raith Rovers
3.0
Queen's Park
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stenhousemuir
25.4
Livingston
25.3
Ayr Utd
22.0
Morton
21.6
Inverness CT
21.6
Arbroath
20.9
Dunfermline
20.7
Partick
19.9
Queen's Park
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
43.3%
Under 9.5
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
59.2%
Under 3.5
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
62.9%
Under 21.5
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Inverness CT or Draw
71.3%
Avg Implied -
36%
36%
29%
covers Inverness CT + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT or Stenhousemuir
64.5%
Avg Implied -
36%
36%
29%
covers Inverness CT + Stenhousemuir
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Stenhousemuir
64.3%
Avg Implied -
36%
36%
29%
covers Draw + Stenhousemuir
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Inverness CT over/under 0.5
Over
61.7%
Under
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 1.5
Over
25.0%
Under
75.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 2.5
Over
7.3%
Under
92.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 3.5
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 0.5
Over
56.5%
Under
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 1.5
Over
20.3%
Under
79.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 2.5
Over
5.2%
Under
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 3.5
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Inverness CT, so a minus line means Inverness CT give that many goals of a start and Stenhousemuir receive them. At -1, Inverness CT must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Inverness CT win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Inverness CT)
Inverness CT -2
3.8%
Draw -2
9.9%
Stenhousemuir +2
86.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Inverness CT)
Inverness CT -1
13.8%
Draw -1
22.0%
Stenhousemuir +1
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Inverness CT)
Inverness CT +1
71.3%
Draw +1
18.9%
Stenhousemuir -1
9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Inverness CT)
Inverness CT +2
90.1%
Draw +2
7.5%
Stenhousemuir -2
2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Inverness CT
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.30
0.79
0.36
0.38
0.25
vs Stronger (24)
0.58
0.29
0.77
0.31
0.36
0.27
vs Similar (2)
0.50
0.00
-
-
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Stenhousemuir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stenhousemuir
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.27
0.56
0.19
1.00
0.36
vs Stronger (29)
0.79
0.28
0.60
0.20
1.00
0.36
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Inverness CT over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Inverness CT
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.57
1.00
0.29
0.56
0.81
vs Stronger (24)
0.92
0.54
1.08
0.31
0.73
0.82
vs Similar (2)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Stenhousemuir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stenhousemuir
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.40
0.94
0.31
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (29)
0.69
0.41
0.87
0.33
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Inverness CT over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
STE (2)
€0m
Inverness CT and Stenhousemuir have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (9)
€2m
LIV (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
Inverness CT and Stenhousemuir have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
Inverness CT and Stenhousemuir have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (13)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
Inverness CT and Stenhousemuir have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
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Partick
Raith Rovers
Arbroath
Livingston
Ayr Utd
Dunfermline
Morton
Queen's Park