Ipswich face Liverpool with the model favouring an away win, a 48% chance against the home side’s 27% and a 25% draw probability. The expected total of 3.1 goals suggests a moderately high-scoring game, yet the most likely total remains two goals, a 23% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 11.7% probability. Liverpool, playing away against a weaker opponent, averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.44 conceded, while Ipswich’s recent form of three consecutive wins and a 3-1 victory over Leicester hints at solid home performance.
The model’s selections include Home under 2.5 HT goals at 99.0% with a 6% edge, Under 7.5 at 98.6%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 98.3% with a 6% edge, Under 6.5 at 96.2% with a 2% edge, Home under 3.5 goals at 95.7%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 92.9% with a 3% edge, Home under 1.5 HT goals at 90.9% with a 1% edge, and Under 5.5 at 90.8% with a 2% edge. The match shape points to a tight contest, likely ending 1-1, with Liverpool’s away form giving them the edge.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ipswich win
27.7%
Avg Implied 16.5% · @ 5.77
Edge
+11.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
6.40
Pinnacle
6.16
Unibet
6.10
William Hil
6.00
BetVictor
6.00
Draw
25.5%
Avg Implied 19.4% · @ 4.89
Edge
+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
5.28
Dafabet
5.20
Betano
5.10
BetVictor
5.00
Marathonbet
5.00
Liverpool win
46.8%
Avg Implied 64.1% · @ 1.48
Edge
-17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.57
Betano
1.53
Marathonbet
1.51
Bet365
1.50
Dafabet
1.49
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ipswich
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.13
2.07
0.73
1.53
1.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.62
1.69
1.80
1.20
1.50
2.00
vs Weaker (17)
1.94
0.71
2.20
0.50
1.57
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Liverpool) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Liverpool
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.33
2.53
1.00
1.33
1.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.17
1.67
1.40
1.20
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (18)
2.44
1.11
3.10
0.90
1.62
1.38
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Ipswich) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.3%
@ 1.10-3.4%
Under 1.5
17.7%
@ 6.56+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.15
Betano
1.12
Unibet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Under
BetVictor
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
1xBet
6.55
Marathonbet
6.50
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.4%
@ 1.38-9.0%
Under 2.5
40.6%
@ 2.97+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.50
10Bet
1.40
Betano
1.39
Unibet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.38
Under
Bet365
3.20
Betfair
3.10
Pinnacle
3.07
Betano
3.05
1xBet
3.04
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.0%
@ 2.01-10.6%
Under 3.5
63.0%
@ 1.82+10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.26
Superbet
2.22
1xBet
2.01
10Bet
2.00
Unibet
2.00
Under
1xBet
1.93
Bet365
1.91
Pinnacle
1.90
Betano
1.88
Marathonbet
1.87
Both teams to score
Yes
61.7%
@ 1.50-0.6%
No
38.3%
@ 2.48+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.59
Bet365
1.53
Betfair
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Betano
1.50
No
Betfair
2.60
Marathonbet
2.52
1xBet
2.50
10Bet
2.50
Betano
2.50
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%@ 9.62+6.9%
1-2
9.4%@ 8.03+3.5%
0-2
7.1%@ 9.52+2.2%
0-1
7.0%@ 10.68+2.6%
2-1
7.0%@ 16.08+4.1%
2-2
6.2%@ 13.15+2.6%
0-0
5.7%@ 20.07+3.3%
1-3
5.5%@ 10.06+0.8%
Ipswich goals ↓
Liverpool goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.7%
7.0%
7.1%
4.2%
1.8%
1
5.0%
12%
9.4%
5.5%
2.4%
2
4.0%
7.0%
6.2%
3.6%
1.6%
3
1.8%
3.1%
2.7%
1.6%
0.7%
4
0.6%
1.0%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ipswich goals (down), columns = Liverpool goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brighton
1.39
Brentford
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Everton
1.29
Newcastle
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.18
Ipswich
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
Hull
0.98
Coventry
0.97
Ipswich is 0.39 points worse than Liverpool in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 1.58).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Tottenham
1.26
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
Ipswich
1.19
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Hull
0.99
Coventry
0.98
Ipswich is 0.46 goals worse than Liverpool in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 1.66).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Everton
1.32
Manchester United
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
Ipswich
1.58
Hull
1.91
Coventry
1.93
Ipswich is 0.19 goals worse than Liverpool in terms of goals conceded per game (1.58 vs 1.39).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ipswich
For 4.9 · Against 4.5 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 12.5 · Total 24.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Liverpool
For 6.4 · Against 3.8 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 10.8 · Total 22.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ipswich
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.2
9.7
4.3
4.0
4.6
23.9
23.9
23.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
10.5
10.1
10.9
4.5
4.5
4.4
24.4
24.9
23.9
vs Weaker (30)
9.6
10.3
8.9
4.2
3.7
4.7
23.5
23.3
23.7
% over line
42%
42%
42%
62%
50%
75%
68%
65%
71%
% under line
58%
58%
58%
38%
50%
25%
32%
35%
29%
This opponent (Liverpool) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Liverpool
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.8
9.6
3.6
3.0
4.1
21.4
21.3
21.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
8.7
8.9
8.6
4.0
3.1
4.6
23.1
24.0
22.5
vs Weaker (29)
11.3
11.9
10.6
3.3
2.9
3.7
20.1
19.8
20.4
% over line
56%
64%
48%
48%
44%
52%
46%
44%
48%
% under line
44%
36%
52%
52%
56%
48%
54%
56%
52%
This opponent (Ipswich) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Newcastle
11.1
Bournemouth
10.7
Fulham
10.5
Hull
10.3
Manchester City
10.3
Liverpool
10.2
Tottenham
10.1
Chelsea
10.0
Ipswich
10.0
Brentford
9.9
Brighton
9.7
Nottingham Forest
9.7
Manchester United
9.6
Coventry
9.6
Leeds
9.5
Everton
9.3
Aston Villa
9.3
Sunderland
9.1
Arsenal
9.0
Crystal Palace
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bournemouth
4.5
Tottenham
4.5
Chelsea
4.4
Newcastle
4.3
Ipswich
4.3
Hull
4.2
Sunderland
4.1
Manchester United
4.1
Brighton
4.0
Aston Villa
3.8
Coventry
3.7
Everton
3.7
Manchester City
3.7
Crystal Palace
3.7
Brentford
3.7
Liverpool
3.6
Fulham
3.6
Arsenal
3.5
Leeds
3.5
Nottingham Forest
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ipswich
23.9
Aston Villa
23.6
Nottingham Forest
23.4
Bournemouth
23.2
Tottenham
22.9
Chelsea
22.7
Sunderland
22.7
Leeds
22.1
Brighton
22.1
Arsenal
22.1
Newcastle
21.8
Everton
21.6
Manchester United
21.5
Liverpool
21.4
Coventry
21.4
Crystal Palace
21.3
Hull
21.1
Manchester City
21.0
Fulham
20.0
Brentford
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
51.0%
@ 1.71-3.3%
Under 9.5
49.0%
@ 2.03+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
Pinnacle
1.75
Betfair
1.75
Superbet
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Under
Unibet
2.10
Pinnacle
2.07
1xBet
2.06
10Bet
2.05
Superbet
2.02
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
56.2%
@ 1.61-1.6%
Under 3.5
43.8%
@ 2.21+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.66
Betano
1.60
Unibet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.58
Under
Pinnacle
2.35
Betano
2.25
Unibet
2.15
Superbet
2.07
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
55.0%
@ 1.82+4.4%
Under 21.5
45.0%
@ 1.87-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.93
Superbet
1.72
Under
Superbet
1.92
Betano
1.82
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ipswich or Draw
53.2%
Avg Implied 36.0% · @ 2.62
Edge
+17.2%
28%
25%
47%
covers Ipswich + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.81
BetVictor
2.70
Unibet
2.70
Marathonbet
2.68
Betfair
2.63
Ipswich or Liverpool
74.5%
Avg Implied 81.0% · @ 1.17
Edge
-6.5%
28%
25%
47%
covers Ipswich + Liverpool
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Draw or Liverpool
72.3%
Avg Implied 83.0% · @ 1.14
Edge
-10.8%
28%
25%
47%
covers Draw + Liverpool
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ipswich over/under 0.5
Over
73.2%
@ 1.38+6.0%
Under
26.8%
@ 2.83-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Unibet
1.38
Under
Pinnacle
3.00
Betano
2.95
Marathonbet
2.93
Betfair
2.88
BetVictor
2.88
Ipswich over/under 1.5
Over
37.9%
@ 2.86+5.2%
Under
62.1%
@ 1.39-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.00
Pinnacle
2.96
1xBet
2.93
Superbet
2.92
Unibet
2.88
Under
Betano
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
Pinnacle
1.42
Betfair
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Ipswich over/under 2.5
Over
14.7%
@ 7.00+1.4%
Under
85.3%
@ 1.08-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.50
Superbet
7.30
BetVictor
7.00
Unibet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
Ipswich over/under 3.5
Over
4.5%
@ 17.92-0.9%
Under
95.5%
@ 1.02+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
23.00
Superbet
20.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Liverpool over/under 0.5
Over
82.8%
@ 1.06-5.4%
Under
17.2%
@ 7.90+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.08
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.08
BetVictor
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Under
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.50
1xBet
8.50
Unibet
7.50
Betano
7.10
Liverpool over/under 1.5
Over
52.5%
@ 1.36-16.1%
Under
47.5%
@ 2.98+16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.45
Betano
1.38
1xBet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.21
Betfair
3.20
BetVictor
3.10
Marathonbet
3.02
Bet365
3.00
Liverpool over/under 2.5
Over
25.8%
@ 2.13-18.1%
Under
74.2%
@ 1.67+18.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.37
Pinnacle
2.17
Marathonbet
2.17
10Bet
2.15
Betano
2.10
Under
1xBet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.72
Marathonbet
1.70
BetVictor
1.70
Betano
1.67
Liverpool over/under 3.5
Over
10.2%
@ 3.90-13.7%
Under
89.8%
@ 1.23+13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.50
Pinnacle
4.08
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.94
10Bet
3.90
Under
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ipswich, so a minus line means Ipswich give that many goals of a start and Liverpool receive them. At -1, Ipswich must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ipswich win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ipswich)
Ipswich -2
4.2%
@ 30.67+1.2%
Draw -2
8.1%
@ 15.33+2.0%
Liverpool +2
87.6%
@ 1.03-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
36.00
Bet365
29.00
Superbet
27.00
Draw
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
15.00
Superbet
14.00
Away
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.02
Handicap -1 (Ipswich)
Ipswich -1
12.4%
@ 11.01+4.3%
Draw -1
15.4%
@ 6.86+2.4%
Liverpool +1
72.3%
@ 1.13-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
12.00
10Bet
11.00
Marathonbet
6.05
Draw
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
10Bet
7.00
Unibet
7.00
Marathonbet
4.30
Away
Marathonbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Betfair
1.10
Handicap +1 (Ipswich)
Ipswich +1
53.2%
@ 2.61+18.6%
Draw +1
20.9%
@ 3.83-2.7%
Liverpool -1
25.9%
@ 2.15-16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.68
Unibet
2.65
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
10Bet
2.62
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.92
Superbet
3.90
10Bet
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Away
Superbet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.20
Bet365
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Handicap +2 (Ipswich)
Ipswich +2
74.1%
@ 1.63+18.5%
Draw +2
14.5%
@ 4.48-5.7%
Liverpool -2
11.4%
@ 3.75-12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.67
Unibet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.63
10Bet
1.62
Betfair
1.62
Draw
Marathonbet
4.75
Superbet
4.60
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Away
Superbet
4.15
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.66
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ipswich
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.53
1.07
0.33
0.53
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.62
0.69
0.60
0.60
0.62
0.75
vs Weaker (17)
0.94
0.41
1.30
0.20
0.43
0.71
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Liverpool) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Liverpool
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.50
1.20
0.27
0.27
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.33
0.67
0.60
0.20
0.14
1.00
vs Weaker (18)
1.00
0.39
1.50
0.30
0.38
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Ipswich) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.4%
@ 1.20-4.6%
Under 0.5
26.6%
@ 4.27+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.20
10Bet
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
Betano
4.40
1xBet
4.40
BetVictor
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.8%
@ 2.02-9.9%
Under 1.5
63.2%
@ 1.77+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.26
Superbet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.05
1xBet
2.04
Pinnacle
2.04
Under
Betano
1.91
1xBet
1.81
Pinnacle
1.81
Marathonbet
1.80
10Bet
1.77
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.3%
@ 4.13-7.4%
Under 2.5
84.7%
@ 1.21+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.70
BetVictor
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
1xBet
4.20
William Hil
4.20
Under
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ipswich over/under 0.5 HT
Over
37.8%
@ 2.30-2.7%
Under
62.2%
@ 1.56+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.44
Superbet
2.35
Unibet
2.30
10Bet
2.30
1xBet
2.28
Under
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.56
Pinnacle
1.56
10Bet
1.55
Ipswich over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.1%
@ 7.70-3.9%
Under
91.9%
@ 1.05+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.70
1xBet
8.00
Superbet
7.90
Unibet
7.50
Betano
6.40
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.05
Unibet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
Ipswich over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.2%
@ 21.75-3.3%
Under
98.8%
@ 1.01+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
31.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Liverpool over/under 0.5 HT
Over
58.4%
@ 1.46-5.7%
Under
41.6%
@ 2.61+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.65
Superbet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.43
1xBet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Under
Pinnacle
2.84
Betano
2.75
10Bet
2.75
1xBet
2.70
Unibet
2.65
Liverpool over/under 1.5 HT
Over
20.5%
@ 3.01-10.2%
Under
79.5%
@ 1.34+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.25
Marathonbet
3.14
Unibet
3.00
10Bet
2.95
1xBet
2.90
Under
Betano
1.40
10Bet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Unibet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
Liverpool over/under 2.5 HT
Over
7.3%
@ 7.45-5.1%
Under
92.7%
@ 1.06+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
8.20
1xBet
7.70
Unibet
7.50
Betano
6.40
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Unibet
1.04
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ipswich
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.60
1.00
0.40
1.00
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.00
1.00
1.20
0.60
0.88
1.25
vs Weaker (17)
1.00
0.29
0.90
0.30
1.14
0.29
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Liverpool) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Liverpool
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.83
1.33
0.73
1.07
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.83
1.00
0.80
1.00
0.86
1.00
vs Weaker (18)
1.44
0.72
1.60
0.60
1.25
0.88
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Ipswich) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
82.4%
@ 1.12-1.6%
Under 0.5
17.6%
@ 5.89+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.15
Betano
1.14
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
Under
1xBet
6.70
Marathonbet
6.15
Bet365
6.00
William Hil
5.80
10Bet
5.75
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
50.0%
@ 1.62-8.2%
Under 1.5
50.0%
@ 2.25+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.73
Betano
1.65
William Hil
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Marathonbet
1.58
Under
Marathonbet
2.38
1xBet
2.38
10Bet
2.25
Unibet
2.23
Betano
2.22
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
23.7%
@ 2.90-8.7%
Under 2.5
76.3%
@ 1.39+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.25
Bet365
3.00
William Hil
2.88
Betano
2.87
1xBet
2.81
Under
1xBet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.43
10Bet
1.40
Betano
1.40
Unibet
1.38
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ipswich over/under 0.5 2H
Over
44.8%
@ 1.92-3.5%
Under
55.2%
@ 1.79+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.97
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.89
Under
1xBet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
Betano
1.80
Superbet
1.74
Ipswich over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.3%
@ 5.63-5.1%
Under
88.7%
@ 1.11+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.00
Superbet
5.85
1xBet
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Betano
5.30
Under
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
Ipswich over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.1%
@ 15.00-4.3%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.02+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Liverpool over/under 0.5 2H
Over
63.8%
@ 1.30-7.8%
Under
36.2%
@ 3.28+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.33
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.26
Under
1xBet
3.60
Betano
3.20
Superbet
3.05
Liverpool over/under 1.5 2H
Over
30.5%
@ 2.36-8.8%
Under
69.5%
@ 1.53+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.55
Betano
2.40
10Bet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.29
1xBet
2.20
Under
1xBet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.55
Betano
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Superbet
1.45
Liverpool over/under 2.5 2H
Over
9.6%
@ 5.29-7.9%
Under
90.4%
@ 1.12+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
5.90
10Bet
5.25
Betano
5.10
1xBet
4.90
Under
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.10
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.3%
Under 7.5
98.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+4.3%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.3%
Under 6.5
96.3%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Superbet
1.04
Unibet
1.03
+5.2%
Home under 3.5 goals
95.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+0.9%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
92.7%
1.06
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Unibet
1.04
-
+5.1%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.9%
1.05
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.05
Unibet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
+3.9%
Under 5.5
90.8%
1.13
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
BetVictor
1.13
Unibet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
+7.3%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
90.4%
1.12
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.10
-
+7.9%
Away under 3.5 goals
89.8%
1.23
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
+13.7%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
88.7%
1.11
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
+5.1%
Away +2 handicap
87.6%
1.03
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.02
-
-
-3.2%
Home under 2.5 goals
85.3%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
-1.4%
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.7%
1.21
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
+7.4%
Away over 0.5 goals
82.8%
1.06
10Bet
1.08
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.08
BetVictor
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-5.4%
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.4%
1.12
Superbet
1.15
Betano
1.14
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
-1.6%
Over 1.5
82.3%
1.10
Superbet
1.15
Betano
1.12
Unibet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
-3.4%
Under 4.5
80.2%
1.34
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.39
Pinnacle
1.36
BetVictor
1.35
10Bet
1.33
+10.1%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
79.5%
1.34
Betano
1.40
10Bet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Unibet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
+10.2%
Under 5.5 cards
78.9%
1.28
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.23
-
-
-
+7.0%
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.3%
1.39
1xBet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.43
10Bet
1.40
Betano
1.40
Unibet
1.38
+8.7%
Under 25.5 fouls
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
75.8%
1.28
Unibet
1.30
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
-
-
+3.8%
Home or Away
74.5%
1.17
Superbet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.18
-6.5%
Away under 2.5 goals
74.2%
1.67
1xBet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.72
Marathonbet
1.70
BetVictor
1.70
Betano
1.67
+18.1%
Home +2 handicap
74.1%
1.63
Bet365
1.67
Unibet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.63
10Bet
1.62
Betfair
1.62
+18.5%
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.4%
1.20
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.20
10Bet
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
-4.6%
Home over 0.5 goals
73.2%
1.38
Superbet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Unibet
1.38
+6.0%
Under 11.5 corners
72.5%
1.38
Superbet
1.44
Unibet
1.42
1xBet
1.39
Betano
1.36
Marathonbet
1.34
+5.8%
Draw or Away
72.3%
1.14
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
-10.8%
Away +1 handicap
72.3%
1.13
Marathonbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Betfair
1.10
-6.7%
Over 19.5 fouls
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Ipswich
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Chuba Akpom33%
Leif Davis33%
Marcelino Núñez33%
Dara O'Shea0%
Daizen Maeda0%
Kasey McAteer0%
Abdoul Ouattara0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Chuba Akpom0%
Dara O'Shea0%
Leif Davis0%
Daizen Maeda0%
Marcelino Núñez0%
Kasey McAteer0%
Abdoul Ouattara0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Chuba Akpom33%
Dara O'Shea0%
Leif Davis0%
Daizen Maeda0%
Marcelino Núñez0%
Kasey McAteer0%
Abdoul Ouattara0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kasey McAteer33%
Chuba Akpom0%
Dara O'Shea0%
Leif Davis0%
Daizen Maeda0%
Marcelino Núñez0%
Abdoul Ouattara0%
Liverpool · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mohamed Salah30%
Hugo Ekitiké30%
Dominik Szoboszlai25%
Alexander Isak18%
Cody Gakpo18%
Florian Wirtz15%
Virgil van Dijk13%
Ryan Gravenberch12%
Andy Robertson9%
Federico Chiesa8%
Alexis Mac Allister7%
Rio Ngumoha7%
Curtis Jones6%
Miloš Kerkez4%
Ibrahima Konaté4%
Jeremie Frimpong3%
Alisson0%
Joe Gomez0%
Wataru Endo0%
Freddie Woodman0%
Giorgi Mamardashvili0%
Conor Bradley0%
Trey Nyoni0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Conor Bradley33%
Dominik Szoboszlai19%
Joe Gomez18%
Ibrahima Konaté18%
Alexis Mac Allister17%
Ryan Gravenberch16%
Virgil van Dijk11%
Federico Chiesa11%
Miloš Kerkez11%
Wataru Endo9%
Curtis Jones8%
Cody Gakpo6%
Hugo Ekitiké5%
Alisson3%
Jeremie Frimpong3%
Andy Robertson3%
Mohamed Salah2%
Florian Wirtz2%
Alexander Isak0%
Freddie Woodman0%
Giorgi Mamardashvili0%
Trey Nyoni0%
Rio Ngumoha0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mohamed Salah25%
Dominik Szoboszlai19%
Florian Wirtz12%
Ryan Gravenberch12%
Hugo Ekitiké11%
Cody Gakpo10%
Alexis Mac Allister9%
Wataru Endo9%
Curtis Jones6%
Joe Gomez6%
Andy Robertson6%
Federico Chiesa6%
Conor Bradley5%
Alexander Isak5%
Miloš Kerkez4%
Rio Ngumoha3%
Jeremie Frimpong3%
Virgil van Dijk2%
Alisson0%
Ibrahima Konaté0%
Freddie Woodman0%
Giorgi Mamardashvili0%
Trey Nyoni0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mohamed Salah28%
Hugo Ekitiké23%
Dominik Szoboszlai21%
Cody Gakpo18%
Alexis Mac Allister9%
Alexander Isak9%
Florian Wirtz8%
Virgil van Dijk4%
Rio Ngumoha3%
Federico Chiesa3%
Miloš Kerkez2%
Ryan Gravenberch2%
Alisson0%
Joe Gomez0%
Andy Robertson0%
Curtis Jones0%
Ibrahima Konaté0%
Wataru Endo0%
Freddie Woodman0%
Giorgi Mamardashvili0%
Jeremie Frimpong0%
Conor Bradley0%
Trey Nyoni0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
COV (27)
€237m
HUL (27)
€105m
Ipswich's squad is €699m less valuable than Liverpool's (€280m vs €980m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
HUL (7)
€22m
Ipswich's attack is €388m less valuable than Liverpool's (€130m vs €518m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
IPS (7)
€66m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
HUL (8)
€31m
FUL (3)
€28m
Ipswich's midfield is €135m less valuable than Liverpool's (€66m vs €201m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
HUL (12)
€52m
Ipswich's defence is €176m less valuable than Liverpool's (€85m vs €260m).
England: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
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Manchester City
Arsenal
Hull
Chelsea
Brentford
Newcastle
Everton
Leeds
Brighton
Manchester United
Sunderland
Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth
Fulham
Coventry
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa
Tottenham