The model favours a home win for Iraklis Yerolakkou, with a 60 % chance of victory, 23 % for a draw and 18 % for an Ayia Napa win. The expected total goals hover at 3.1, yet the most likely total is two, with a 22 % probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.6 % chance. Iraklis, playing at home against a weaker side, averages one goal scored and two conceded; Ayia Napa, away against a stronger opponent, averages 1.58 scored and 1.75 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.5 %), Away under 3.5 goals (97.7 %), Under 6.5 (95.9 %), Home +2 handicap (93.2 %), Away under 2.5 goals (90.8 %), Under 5.5 (90.2 %), Home over 0.5 goals (87.4 %) and Home under 3.5 goals (84.5 %). Iraklis has just returned from a draw, while Ayia Napa is riding a two-game winning streak.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Iraklis Yerolakkou win
59.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa win
17.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Iraklis Yerolakkou
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.03
1.33
1.27
0.50
0.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.04
0.91
1.38
1.15
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.25
1.25
Clean sheet %
28% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayia Napa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ayia Napa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.47
1.21
1.50
1.56
1.44
vs Stronger (26)
1.35
1.54
1.23
1.46
1.46
1.62
vs Similar (4)
1.75
1.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Iraklis Yerolakkou) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.9%
Under 1.5
17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.6%
Under 2.5
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.2%
Under 3.5
61.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.2%
No
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.3%
1-0
8.1%
3-1
6.8%
3-0
6.4%
0-0
5.3%
2-2
5.3%
Iraklis Yerolakkou goals ↓
Ayia Napa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
3.7%
2.5%
0.9%
0.2%
1
8.1%
11%
5.1%
1.8%
0.5%
2
9.3%
9.9%
5.3%
1.9%
0.5%
3
6.4%
6.8%
3.6%
1.3%
0.3%
4
3.3%
3.5%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Iraklis Yerolakkou goals (down), columns = Ayia Napa goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ethnikos Achna
2.66
Akritas
2.54
Enosis
2.44
PAEEK
1.59
Halkanoras
1.55
Doxa
1.45
Ayia Napa
1.41
Ermis
1.37
Polemidion
1.37
Anagennisi Deryneia
1.37
APEA
1.34
Spartakos Kitiou
1.34
Digenis Morphou
1.34
Iraklis Yerolakkou
1.28
ASIL Lysi
1.07
MEAP Nisou
1.00
Iraklis Yerolakkou is 0.14 points worse than Ayia Napa in terms of average points per game (1.28 vs 1.41).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ethnikos Achna
2.62
Akritas
2.50
Enosis
2.40
Halkanoras
1.62
Digenis Morphou
1.55
PAEEK
1.45
Ayia Napa
1.45
Spartakos Kitiou
1.45
Ermis
1.35
Polemidion
1.35
Anagennisi Deryneia
1.35
APEA
1.31
Doxa
1.17
ASIL Lysi
1.10
MEAP Nisou
1.07
Iraklis Yerolakkou
0.93
Iraklis Yerolakkou is 0.52 goals worse than Ayia Napa in terms of goals scored per game (0.93 vs 1.45).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ethnikos Achna
0.70
Akritas
0.73
Enosis
0.76
Iraklis Yerolakkou
1.03
PAEEK
1.07
Doxa
1.21
Spartakos Kitiou
1.24
Halkanoras
1.28
APEA
1.31
Digenis Morphou
1.31
Ermis
1.35
Polemidion
1.35
Anagennisi Deryneia
1.35
Ayia Napa
1.48
ASIL Lysi
1.72
MEAP Nisou
1.72
Iraklis Yerolakkou is 0.45 goals better than Ayia Napa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.48).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Iraklis Yerolakkou or Draw
82.2%
Avg Implied -
60%
23%
18%
covers Iraklis Yerolakkou + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou or Ayia Napa
77.4%
Avg Implied -
60%
23%
18%
covers Iraklis Yerolakkou + Ayia Napa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ayia Napa
40.4%
Avg Implied -
60%
23%
18%
covers Draw + Ayia Napa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 0.5
Over
87.4%
Under
12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 1.5
Over
61.2%
Under
38.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 2.5
Over
34.2%
Under
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 3.5
Over
15.6%
Under
84.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 0.5
Over
65.5%
Under
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 1.5
Over
28.7%
Under
71.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 2.5
Over
9.2%
Under
90.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 3.5
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Iraklis Yerolakkou, so a minus line means Iraklis Yerolakkou give that many goals of a start and Ayia Napa receive them. At -1, Iraklis Yerolakkou must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Iraklis Yerolakkou win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Iraklis Yerolakkou)
Iraklis Yerolakkou -2
18.8%
Draw -2
18.4%
Ayia Napa +2
62.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Iraklis Yerolakkou)
Iraklis Yerolakkou -1
37.2%
Draw -1
22.4%
Ayia Napa +1
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Iraklis Yerolakkou)
Iraklis Yerolakkou +1
82.2%
Draw +1
11.0%
Ayia Napa -1
6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Iraklis Yerolakkou)
Iraklis Yerolakkou +2
93.2%
Draw +2
4.8%
Ayia Napa -2
1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Iraklis Yerolakkou
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.41
0.59
0.53
0.87
0.29
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.43
0.57
0.54
0.77
0.30
0.30
vs Weaker (6)
0.33
0.67
0.50
1.50
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
52% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayia Napa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ayia Napa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.00
0.43
0.93
0.62
1.06
vs Stronger (26)
0.54
1.08
0.46
1.00
0.62
1.15
vs Similar (4)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Iraklis Yerolakkou) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Iraklis Yerolakkou
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.52
0.45
0.80
0.40
0.21
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.35
0.85
0.38
0.30
0.30
vs Weaker (6)
0.17
0.83
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
59% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayia Napa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ayia Napa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.47
0.79
0.57
0.94
0.38
vs Stronger (26)
0.81
0.46
0.77
0.46
0.85
0.46
vs Similar (4)
1.25
0.50
1.00
2.00
1.33
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Iraklis Yerolakkou) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Cyprus: 2. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 2. Division stats & trends →