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Iraklis Yerolakkou vs Ayia Napa Prediction & Stats

Date: 19/09/2026
Time: 16:00
Iraklis Yerolakkou
Iraklis Yerolakkou
Vs
60%
23%
18%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ayia Napa
Ayia Napa
Cyprus: 2. Division
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

The model favours a home win for Iraklis Yerolakkou, with a 60 % chance of victory, 23 % for a draw and 18 % for an Ayia Napa win. The expected total goals hover at 3.1, yet the most likely total is two, with a 22 % probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.6 % chance. Iraklis, playing at home against a weaker side, averages one goal scored and two conceded; Ayia Napa, away against a stronger opponent, averages 1.58 scored and 1.75 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.5 %), Away under 3.5 goals (97.7 %), Under 6.5 (95.9 %), Home +2 handicap (93.2 %), Away under 2.5 goals (90.8 %), Under 5.5 (90.2 %), Home over 0.5 goals (87.4 %) and Home under 3.5 goals (84.5 %). Iraklis has just returned from a draw, while Ayia Napa is riding a two-game winning streak.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Iraklis Yerolakkou win
59.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa win
17.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Iraklis YerolakkouIraklis Yerolakkou

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W10W00D21W32W00D41W01L02L00DH·DIG14/02A·APE21/02H·HAL28/02H·SPA07/03H·AHI14/03A·ETH18/03H·AE 21/03A·DIG04/04H·APE21/04A·HAL25/04
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.031.331.270.500.79
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)1.040.911.381.150.600.60
vs Weaker (6)0.501.501.002.000.251.25
Clean sheet %28% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayia Napa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ayia NapaAyia Napa

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-602L00D12L02L02L03L55D03L63W30WH·NEA14/02A·PAE21/02H·DOX28/02H·OMO06/03H·MEA14/03A·KAR18/03H·ASI21/03A·NEA04/04H·PAE19/04A·DOX25/04
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.471.211.501.561.44
vs Stronger (26)1.351.541.231.461.461.62
vs Similar (4)1.751.001.002.002.000.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Iraklis Yerolakkou) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%012%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.9%
Under 1.5
17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.6%
Under 2.5
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.2%
Under 3.5
61.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.2%
No
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.3%
1-0
8.1%
3-1
6.8%
3-0
6.4%
0-0
5.3%
2-2
5.3%
Iraklis Yerolakkou goals ↓
Ayia Napa goals →
01234
05.3%3.7%2.5%0.9%0.2%
18.1%11%5.1%1.8%0.5%
29.3%9.9%5.3%1.9%0.5%
36.4%6.8%3.6%1.3%0.3%
43.3%3.5%1.9%0.7%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Iraklis Yerolakkou goals (down), columns = Ayia Napa goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Ethnikos Achna
2.66
Akritas
2.54
Enosis
2.44
PAEEK
1.59
Halkanoras
1.55
Doxa
1.45
Ayia Napa
1.41
Ermis
1.37
Polemidion
1.37
Anagennisi Deryneia
1.37
APEA
1.34
Spartakos Kitiou
1.34
Digenis Morphou
1.34
Iraklis Yerolakkou
1.28
ASIL Lysi
1.07
MEAP Nisou
1.00
Iraklis Yerolakkou is 0.14 points worse than Ayia Napa in terms of average points per game (1.28 vs 1.41).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Ethnikos Achna
2.62
Akritas
2.50
Enosis
2.40
Halkanoras
1.62
Digenis Morphou
1.55
PAEEK
1.45
Ayia Napa
1.45
Spartakos Kitiou
1.45
Ermis
1.35
Polemidion
1.35
Anagennisi Deryneia
1.35
APEA
1.31
Doxa
1.17
ASIL Lysi
1.10
MEAP Nisou
1.07
Iraklis Yerolakkou
0.93
Iraklis Yerolakkou is 0.52 goals worse than Ayia Napa in terms of goals scored per game (0.93 vs 1.45).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Ethnikos Achna
0.70
Akritas
0.73
Enosis
0.76
Iraklis Yerolakkou
1.03
PAEEK
1.07
Doxa
1.21
Spartakos Kitiou
1.24
Halkanoras
1.28
APEA
1.31
Digenis Morphou
1.31
Ermis
1.35
Polemidion
1.35
Anagennisi Deryneia
1.35
Ayia Napa
1.48
ASIL Lysi
1.72
MEAP Nisou
1.72
Iraklis Yerolakkou is 0.45 goals better than Ayia Napa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.48).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Iraklis Yerolakkou or Draw
82.2%
Avg Implied -
60%
23%
18%
covers Iraklis Yerolakkou + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou or Ayia Napa
77.4%
Avg Implied -
60%
23%
18%
covers Iraklis Yerolakkou + Ayia Napa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ayia Napa
40.4%
Avg Implied -
60%
23%
18%
covers Draw + Ayia Napa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 0.5
Over
87.4%
Under
12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 1.5
Over
61.2%
Under
38.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 2.5
Over
34.2%
Under
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 3.5
Over
15.6%
Under
84.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 0.5
Over
65.5%
Under
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 1.5
Over
28.7%
Under
71.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 2.5
Over
9.2%
Under
90.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 3.5
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Iraklis Yerolakkou, so a minus line means Iraklis Yerolakkou give that many goals of a start and Ayia Napa receive them. At -1, Iraklis Yerolakkou must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Iraklis Yerolakkou win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Iraklis Yerolakkou)
Iraklis Yerolakkou -2
18.8%
Draw -2
18.4%
Ayia Napa +2
62.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Iraklis Yerolakkou)
Iraklis Yerolakkou -1
37.2%
Draw -1
22.4%
Ayia Napa +1
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Iraklis Yerolakkou)
Iraklis Yerolakkou +1
82.2%
Draw +1
11.0%
Ayia Napa -1
6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Iraklis Yerolakkou)
Iraklis Yerolakkou +2
93.2%
Draw +2
4.8%
Ayia Napa -2
1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Iraklis YerolakkouIraklis Yerolakkou

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D00D01L11D00D11D00D02L00DH·DIG14/02A·APE21/02H·HAL28/02H·SPA07/03H·AHI14/03A·ETH18/03H·AE 21/03A·DIG04/04H·APE21/04A·HAL25/04
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.410.590.530.870.290.29
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)0.430.570.540.770.300.30
vs Weaker (6)0.330.670.501.500.250.25
Clean sheet %52% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayia Napa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ayia NapaAyia Napa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D00D02L02L02L23L02L33D00DH·NEA14/02A·PAE21/02H·DOX28/02H·OMO06/03H·MEA14/03A·KAR18/03H·ASI21/03A·NEA04/04H·PAE19/04A·DOX25/04
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.531.000.430.930.621.06
vs Stronger (26)0.541.080.461.000.621.15
vs Similar (4)0.500.500.000.000.670.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Iraklis Yerolakkou) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Iraklis YerolakkouIraklis Yerolakkou

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W00D20W21W00D30W01L00D00DH·DIG14/02A·APE21/02H·HAL28/02H·SPA07/03H·AHI14/03A·ETH18/03H·AE 21/03A·DIG04/04H·APE21/04A·HAL25/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.520.450.800.400.210.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)0.610.350.850.380.300.30
vs Weaker (6)0.170.830.500.500.001.00
Clean sheet %59% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayia Napa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ayia NapaAyia Napa

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D12L00D00D01L32W01L30W30WH·NEA14/02A·PAE21/02H·DOX28/02H·OMO06/03H·MEA14/03A·KAR18/03H·ASI21/03A·NEA04/04H·PAE19/04A·DOX25/04
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.470.790.570.940.38
vs Stronger (26)0.810.460.770.460.850.46
vs Similar (4)1.250.501.002.001.330.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Iraklis Yerolakkou) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.598.5%-------
Away under 3.5 goals97.7%-------
Under 6.595.9%-------
Home +2 handicap93.2%-------
Away under 2.5 goals90.8%-------
Under 5.590.2%-------
Home over 0.5 goals87.4%-------
Home under 3.5 goals84.4%-------
Over 1.582.9%-------
Home or Draw82.2%-------
Home +1 handicap82.2%-------
Under 4.579.3%-------
Home or Away77.4%-------
Away under 1.5 goals71.3%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ENO (9)
€1m
AKR (5)
€1m
EA (2)
€0m
DOX (1)
€0m
AN (1)
€0m
PAE (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ENO (3)
€0m
AKR (2)
€0m
EA (1)
€0m
AN (1)
€0m
DOX (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
PAE (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ENO (2)
€0m
AKR (0)
€0m
EA (0)
€0m
DOX (0)
€0m
AN (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
PAE (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ENO (4)
€1m
AKR (3)
€1m
EA (1)
€0m
DOX (1)
€0m
PAE (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
AN (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
IY wins
0
Draws
1
AN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Iraklis Yerolakkou vs Ayia Napa · H/A from IY
DateH/AGameScore
18/10/25HIY Vs Ayia Napa2-4

Iraklis YerolakkouIraklis Yerolakkou

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/04/26AHalkanoras Vs IY0-0
21/04/26HIY Vs APEA0-2
04/04/26ADigenis Morphou Vs IY1-0
21/03/26HIY Vs AE Zakakiou4-1
18/03/26AEthnikos Latsion Vs IY0-0
14/03/26HIY Vs Ahironas / Onisilos3-2
07/03/26HIY Vs Spartakos Kitiou2-1
28/02/26HIY Vs Halkanoras0-0
21/02/26AAPEA Vs IY0-1
14/02/26HIY Vs Digenis Morphou2-1

Ayia NapaAyia Napa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/04/26ADoxa Vs AN0-3
19/04/26HAN Vs PAEEK6-3
04/04/26ANea Salamis Vs AN3-0
21/03/26HAN Vs ASIL Lysi5-5
18/03/26AKarmiotissa Vs AN3-0
14/03/26HAN Vs MEAP Nisou0-2
06/03/26HAN Vs Omonia 29is Maiou0-2
28/02/26HAN Vs Doxa1-2
21/02/26APAEEK Vs AN0-0
14/02/26HAN Vs Nea Salamis0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Iraklis Yerolakkou
Iraklis Yerolakkou
Cyprus: 2. Division
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLLD1.28
HomeDWWWL1.40
AwayDWDLD1.14
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%33%21%
AVG goals1.972.601.29
Over 1.5 %62%80%43%
Over 2.5 %31%47%14%
Over 3.5 %10%20%0%
Scored0.931.330.50
Conceded1.031.270.79
BTTS52%73%29%
Clean Sheet28%13%43%
Corners---
Cards---
Ayia Napa
Ayia Napa
Cyprus: 2. Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLWW1.36
HomeLLLDW1.32
AwayWDLLW1.40
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%36%40%
AVG goals2.822.603.04
Over 1.5 %80%72%88%
Over 2.5 %52%36%68%
Over 3.5 %22%16%28%
Scored1.321.241.40
Conceded1.501.361.64
BTTS50%40%60%
Clean Sheet22%28%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1DoxaDoxa00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
2EnosisEnosis00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.00.0
-
3Ayia NapaAyia Napa00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
4Digenis MorphouDigenis Morphou00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
5Spartakos KitiouSpartakos Kitiou00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
6Ethnikos AchnaEthnikos Achna00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
7Anagennisi DeryneiaAnagennisi Deryneia00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
8Iraklis YerolakkouIraklis Yerolakkou00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
9HalkanorasHalkanoras00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
10PolemidionPolemidion00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
11APEAAPEA00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
12ASIL LysiASIL Lysi00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
13AkritasAkritas00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.00.0
-
14ErmisErmis00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
15PAEEKPAEEK00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
16MEAP NisouMEAP Nisou00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
Cyprus: 2. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 2. Division stats & trends →

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