The contest between Iraklis Yerolakkou and Digenis Morphou is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. Home and away win chances sit at 36% and 37% respectively, a draw at 27%. The expected total of 2.9 goals points to a moderately high scoring affair, yet the most likely total is two goals, a 25% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.9% probability, reflecting the evenly matched nature of the sides.
Iraklis, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.38 goals scored and 1.15 conceded. Digenis, on the road, averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. Both teams have recently drawn their last matches, 0-0 against Halkanoras and 1-1 against AE Zakakiou, suggesting cautious play.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.1%), Under 6.5 (97.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.2%), Under 5.5 (93.0%), Under 4.5 (83.8%), Home under 2.5 goals (82.9%), and Away +2 handicap (82.8%). These picks underline the expectation of a modestly scored match with a slight edge for the visitors.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Iraklis Yerolakkou win
35.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou win
36.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Iraklis Yerolakkou
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.03
1.33
1.27
0.50
0.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.04
0.91
1.38
1.15
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.25
1.25
Clean sheet %
28% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Digenis Morphou) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Digenis Morphou
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.30
1.56
1.44
1.79
1.14
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.56
1.39
1.62
1.62
1.50
1.20
vs Weaker (12)
1.83
1.17
1.50
1.25
2.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Iraklis Yerolakkou) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.0%
Under 1.5
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
54.4%
Under 2.5
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
32.1%
Under 3.5
67.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
59.0%
No
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
8.3%
0-1
7.1%
1-0
7.0%
0-0
6.9%
2-2
6.0%
0-2
5.9%
Iraklis Yerolakkou goals ↓
Digenis Morphou goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.9%
7.1%
5.9%
2.9%
1.0%
1
7.0%
13%
8.4%
4.0%
1.5%
2
5.8%
8.3%
6.0%
2.9%
1.0%
3
2.7%
3.9%
2.8%
1.4%
0.5%
4
1.0%
1.4%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Iraklis Yerolakkou goals (down), columns = Digenis Morphou goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ethnikos Achna
2.66
Akritas
2.54
Enosis
2.44
PAEEK
1.59
Halkanoras
1.55
Doxa
1.45
Ayia Napa
1.41
Ermis
1.37
Polemidion
1.37
Anagennisi Deryneia
1.37
APEA
1.34
Spartakos Kitiou
1.34
Digenis Morphou
1.34
Iraklis Yerolakkou
1.28
ASIL Lysi
1.07
MEAP Nisou
1.00
Iraklis Yerolakkou is 0.07 points worse than Digenis Morphou in terms of average points per game (1.28 vs 1.34).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ethnikos Achna
2.62
Akritas
2.50
Enosis
2.40
Halkanoras
1.62
Digenis Morphou
1.55
PAEEK
1.45
Ayia Napa
1.45
Spartakos Kitiou
1.45
Ermis
1.35
Polemidion
1.35
Anagennisi Deryneia
1.35
APEA
1.31
Doxa
1.17
ASIL Lysi
1.10
MEAP Nisou
1.07
Iraklis Yerolakkou
0.93
Iraklis Yerolakkou is 0.62 goals worse than Digenis Morphou in terms of goals scored per game (0.93 vs 1.55).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ethnikos Achna
0.70
Akritas
0.73
Enosis
0.76
Iraklis Yerolakkou
1.03
PAEEK
1.07
Doxa
1.21
Spartakos Kitiou
1.24
Halkanoras
1.28
APEA
1.31
Digenis Morphou
1.31
Ermis
1.35
Polemidion
1.35
Anagennisi Deryneia
1.35
Ayia Napa
1.48
ASIL Lysi
1.72
MEAP Nisou
1.72
Iraklis Yerolakkou is 0.28 goals better than Digenis Morphou in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.31).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Iraklis Yerolakkou or Draw
63.2%
Avg Implied -
36%
27%
37%
covers Iraklis Yerolakkou + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou or Digenis Morphou
72.7%
Avg Implied -
36%
27%
37%
covers Iraklis Yerolakkou + Digenis Morphou
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Digenis Morphou
64.1%
Avg Implied -
36%
27%
37%
covers Draw + Digenis Morphou
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 0.5
Over
75.8%
Under
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 1.5
Over
41.5%
Under
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 2.5
Over
17.1%
Under
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 3.5
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 0.5
Over
76.3%
Under
23.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 1.5
Over
42.2%
Under
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 2.5
Over
17.6%
Under
82.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 3.5
Over
5.8%
Under
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Iraklis Yerolakkou, so a minus line means Iraklis Yerolakkou give that many goals of a start and Digenis Morphou receive them. At -1, Iraklis Yerolakkou must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Iraklis Yerolakkou win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Iraklis Yerolakkou)
Iraklis Yerolakkou -2
6.4%
Draw -2
10.9%
Digenis Morphou +2
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Iraklis Yerolakkou)
Iraklis Yerolakkou -1
17.2%
Draw -1
18.6%
Digenis Morphou +1
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Iraklis Yerolakkou)
Iraklis Yerolakkou +1
63.2%
Draw +1
18.9%
Digenis Morphou -1
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Iraklis Yerolakkou)
Iraklis Yerolakkou +2
82.1%
Draw +2
11.2%
Digenis Morphou -2
6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Iraklis Yerolakkou
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.41
0.59
0.53
0.87
0.29
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.43
0.57
0.54
0.77
0.30
0.30
vs Weaker (6)
0.33
0.67
0.50
1.50
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
52% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Digenis Morphou) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Digenis Morphou
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.63
0.44
0.75
0.64
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.28
0.67
0.12
0.88
0.40
0.50
vs Weaker (12)
0.92
0.58
0.75
0.62
1.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Iraklis Yerolakkou) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Iraklis Yerolakkou
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.52
0.45
0.80
0.40
0.21
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.35
0.85
0.38
0.30
0.30
vs Weaker (6)
0.17
0.83
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
59% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Digenis Morphou) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Digenis Morphou
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.67
1.12
0.69
1.14
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.28
0.72
1.50
0.75
1.10
0.70
vs Weaker (12)
0.92
0.58
0.75
0.62
1.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Iraklis Yerolakkou) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Cyprus: 2. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 2. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Doxa
Enosis
Ayia Napa
Spartakos Kitiou
Ethnikos Achna
Anagennisi Deryneia
Halkanoras
Polemidion
APEA
ASIL Lysi
Akritas
Ermis
PAEEK
MEAP Nisou