PythiaFootballBETA
Ironi Kiryat Shmona is expected to come out on top in this matchup, given their recent form and the overall shape of the match. The home side is coming off a defeat, but they have shown resilience in their recent matches, averaging 2 goals scored and 1.5 conceded at home. Ashdod, on the other hand, has been inconsistent, averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.75 conceded away from home against stronger opponents.
The model predicts a 46% chance of a home win, a 29% chance of a draw, and a 26% chance of an away win. The expected total number of goals is 2.5, with a most likely score of 1-1 at 13.7%. The home side's home scoring and conceding, and the away side's away scoring and conceding, versus this opponent's strength tier, will be crucial in determining the outcome.
The model's selection for this match is the home win, with suggested picks including Under 3.5 at 75.8% and Over 1.5 at 72.5%. The home win percentage is 46%, the draw percentage is 29%, and the away win percentage is 26%.
Ironi Kiryat Shmona's home win streak came to an abrupt end as Ashdod pulled off a stunning upset, winning 2-3. The pre-match favourite, a home win, failed to materialise, with the model's selection coming up wrong. The model had predicted a home win with a 46% probability. Despite this, the model's call was correct on the Over 1.5 goals, which hit at a 72.5% probability. The Under 3.5 goals, however, missed at 75.8% probability. The most likely score was a 1-1 draw, but the actual result was anything but. Ashdod's recent form had been boosted by a win over Ironi Kiryat Shmona in their previous encounter, and they capitalised on their momentum to secure the three points.
Ironi Kiryat Shmona| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.57 | 1.60 | 1.60 | 1.33 | 1.53 | 1.87 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 1.11 | 2.33 | 1.00 | 1.80 | 1.25 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (13) | 1.46 | 1.31 | 1.86 | 1.14 | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 2.25 | 1.25 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-4pp vs league) | |||||
Ashdod| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.07 | 1.90 | 1.27 | 2.27 | 0.87 | 1.53 |
| vs Stronger (17) | 1.00 | 2.29 | 1.11 | 2.78 | 0.88 | 1.75 |
| vs Similar (13) | 1.15 | 1.38 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 0.86 | 1.29 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-11pp vs league) | |||||
| Ashdod goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 9.5% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 11% | 14% | 6.5% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 8.7% | 9.1% | 4.7% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 4.3% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Ironi Kiryat ShmonaAshdodIroni Kiryat Shmona| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.3 | 8.7 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 27.2 | 26.3 | 28.3 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 8.4 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 28.5 | 27.7 | 29.5 |
| vs Similar (22) | 8.8 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 25.7 | 24.7 | 28.0 |
| vs Weaker (15) | 7.8 | 8.7 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 27.1 | 26.7 | 27.3 |
| % over line | 28% | 29% | 27% | 46% | 36% | 56% | 88% | 82% | 93% |
| % under line | 72% | 71% | 73% | 54% | 64% | 44% | 12% | 18% | 7% |
Ashdod| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.5 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 26.1 | 25.4 | 26.7 |
| vs Stronger (25) | 9.7 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 26.6 | 27.6 | 25.8 |
| vs Similar (25) | 9.2 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 25.5 | 22.5 | 28.0 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 42% | 43% | 41% | 48% | 46% | 50% | 77% | 79% | 76% |
| % under line | 58% | 57% | 59% | 52% | 54% | 50% | 23% | 21% | 24% |
Ironi Kiryat Shmona| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.90 | 0.67 | 0.73 | 0.73 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 0.44 | 1.44 | 0.20 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (13) | 0.46 | 0.69 | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.33 | 0.83 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 1.38 | 0.62 | 1.67 | 0.67 | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+9pp vs league) | |||||
Ashdod| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.87 | 0.73 | 1.07 | 0.20 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (17) | 0.53 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.33 | 0.38 | 0.62 |
| vs Similar (13) | 0.38 | 0.69 | 0.83 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+26pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 93.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 87.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 85.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 82.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 75.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 23.5 fouls | 74.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 10.5 corners | 73.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 3.5 cards | 73.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 1.5 | 72.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/01/26 | A | 2-5 | |
| 27/09/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 10/05/25 | A | 4-2 | |
| 22/12/24 | H | 3-2 | |
| 31/08/24 | A | 2-1 | |
| 28/01/23 | A | 1-1 | |
| 10/10/22 | H | 1-1 |
Ironi Kiryat Shmona| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/05/26 | A | 0-4 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 29/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 21/02/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 14/02/26 | H | 2-2 |
Ashdod| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 28/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 05/04/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 21/02/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 14/02/26 | H | 1-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 36 | 79 | 67% | 2.2 | 79 | 38 | +41 | 3.2 | 78% | 56% | 39% | 10.0 | 58% | 5.8 | 88% | 28.7 | 92% | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 60% |
| 2 |  Beitar Jerusalem | 36 | 76 | 61% | 2.1 | 78 | 40 | +38 | 3.3 | 78% | 64% | 39% | 8.8 | 42% | 6.0 | 85% | 29.1 | 88% | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 57% |
| 3 |  Maccabi Tel Aviv | 35 | 63 | 51% | 1.8 | 72 | 46 | +26 | 3.4 | 83% | 69% | 54% | 9.4 | 44% | 5.6 | 96% | 30.3 | 100% | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 53% |
| 4 |  Hapoel Tel Aviv | 35 | 62 | 51% | 1.8 | 55 | 35 | +20 | 2.6 | 71% | 43% | 29% | 8.5 | 36% | 6.1 | 80% | 29.9 | 92% | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 47% |
| 5 |  Maccabi Haifa | 36 | 55 | 42% | 1.5 | 66 | 47 | +19 | 3.1 | 81% | 61% | 44% | 8.7 | 38% | 5.1 | 80% | 26.7 | 81% | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 54% |
| 6 |  Maccabi Netanya | 33 | 48 | 42% | 1.5 | 59 | 63 | -4 | 3.7 | 91% | 67% | 45% | 9.0 | 27% | 6.4 | 91% | 26.0 | 77% | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 50% |
| 7 |  Ironi Tiberias | 33 | 44 | 36% | 1.3 | 45 | 56 | -11 | 3.1 | 85% | 45% | 36% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.7 | - |
| 8 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 33 | 40 | 33% | 1.2 | 50 | 53 | -3 | 3.1 | 82% | 64% | 45% | 8.3 | 32% | 5.0 | 73% | 27.3 | 82% | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 47% |
| 9 |  Hapoel Petah Tikva | 36 | 40 | 25% | 1.1 | 48 | 57 | -9 | 2.9 | 75% | 56% | 44% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.6 | - |
| 10 |  Hapoel Haifa | 33 | 34 | 24% | 1.0 | 39 | 51 | -12 | 2.7 | 73% | 42% | 30% | 9.8 | 45% | 5.5 | 91% | 27.0 | 82% | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 43% |
| 11 |  Bnei Sakhnin | 33 | 34 | 24% | 1.0 | 28 | 49 | -21 | 2.3 | 76% | 45% | 18% | 9.3 | 36% | 4.7 | 77% | 25.2 | 64% | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 39% |
| 12 |  Hapoel Katamon | 33 | 31 | 21% | 0.9 | 26 | 43 | -17 | 2.1 | 61% | 39% | 18% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.3 | - |
| 13 | Ashdod | 33 | 28 | 18% | 0.8 | 38 | 62 | -24 | 3.0 | 82% | 58% | 33% | 8.7 | 32% | 5.6 | 77% | 27.8 | 86% | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 46% |
| 14 |  Maccabi Bnei Raina | 33 | 22 | 18% | 0.7 | 26 | 69 | -43 | 2.9 | 76% | 58% | 42% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.1 | - |