Ironi Modi'in and Hapoel Afula face a tightly contested clash, with the model favouring a home win. The expected total of 2.4 goals points to a modestly open match, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.4% probability. Ironi Modi'in, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, averages 1.2 goals scored and 0.7 conceded, while Hapoel Afula, on the road, averages 1.45 goals scored and 1.73 conceded. The probabilities for the match outcome are 38% home win, 30% draw, and 31% away win. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (98.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.4%), Under 5.5 (96.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.2%), Under 4.5 (91.0%), Away under 2.5 goals (89.9%), and Home +2 handicap (87.1%). Ironi Modi'in’s recent draw and Hapoel Afula’s three-game winning streak add intrigue, but the balance remains razor-thin.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ironi Modi'in win
38.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula win
31.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ironi Modi'in
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.07
1.07
1.00
0.53
1.13
vs Stronger (10)
0.80
1.70
0.80
1.60
0.80
1.80
vs Similar (20)
0.80
0.75
1.20
0.70
0.40
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Afula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Afula
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.27
1.06
1.12
1.36
1.43
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
0.80
1.33
1.33
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
1.20
1.36
1.00
1.08
1.42
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Ironi Modi'in) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
69.5%
Under 1.5
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
41.9%
Under 2.5
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
21.2%
Under 3.5
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
49.0%
No
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-0
10.8%
1-0
10.6%
0-1
9.2%
2-1
8.2%
2-0
7.4%
1-2
7.2%
0-2
5.8%
Ironi Modi'in goals ↓
Hapoel Afula goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
9.2%
5.8%
2.1%
0.6%
1
11%
14%
7.2%
2.7%
0.7%
2
7.4%
8.2%
4.5%
1.7%
0.5%
3
3.1%
3.4%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.0%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ironi Modi'in goals (down), columns = Hapoel Afula goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maccabi Herzliya
1.68
Ashdod
1.64
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.58
Bnei Yehuda
1.54
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.51
Kiryat Yam SC
1.46
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.38
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.35
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.35
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.34
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.34
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.32
Hapoel Afula
1.22
Kafr Qasim
1.11
Ironi Modi'in
1.08
Hapoel Acre
1.08
Ironi Modi'in is 0.14 points worse than Hapoel Afula in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 1.22).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.81
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.78
Ashdod
1.66
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.60
Maccabi Herzliya
1.49
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.41
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.36
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.36
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.35
Kiryat Yam SC
1.30
Bnei Yehuda
1.24
Kafr Qasim
1.14
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.14
Hapoel Acre
1.08
Hapoel Afula
1.05
Ironi Modi'in
1.00
Ironi Modi'in is 0.05 goals worse than Hapoel Afula in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.05).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ashdod
1.11
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.16
Kiryat Yam SC
1.16
Bnei Yehuda
1.19
Maccabi Herzliya
1.19
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.19
Ironi Modi'in
1.27
Hapoel Acre
1.30
Kafr Qasim
1.32
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.35
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.36
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.36
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.46
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.57
Hapoel Afula
1.57
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.70
Ironi Modi'in is 0.30 goals better than Hapoel Afula in terms of goals conceded per game (1.27 vs 1.57).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ironi Modi'in or Draw
68.8%
Avg Implied -
38%
30%
31%
covers Ironi Modi'in + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ironi Modi'in or Hapoel Afula
69.5%
Avg Implied -
38%
30%
31%
covers Ironi Modi'in + Hapoel Afula
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Hapoel Afula
61.7%
Avg Implied -
38%
30%
31%
covers Draw + Hapoel Afula
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ironi Modi'in over/under 0.5
Over
71.4%
Under
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Modi'in over/under 1.5
Over
35.6%
Under
64.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Modi'in over/under 2.5
Over
13.2%
Under
86.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Modi'in over/under 3.5
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 0.5
Over
66.9%
Under
33.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 1.5
Over
30.3%
Under
69.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 2.5
Over
10.0%
Under
90.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 3.5
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ironi Modi'in, so a minus line means Ironi Modi'in give that many goals of a start and Hapoel Afula receive them. At -1, Ironi Modi'in must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ironi Modi'in win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ironi Modi'in)
Ironi Modi'in -2
6.0%
Draw -2
11.5%
Hapoel Afula +2
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ironi Modi'in)
Ironi Modi'in -1
17.5%
Draw -1
20.9%
Hapoel Afula +1
61.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ironi Modi'in)
Ironi Modi'in +1
68.8%
Draw +1
18.3%
Hapoel Afula -1
12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ironi Modi'in)
Ironi Modi'in +2
87.1%
Draw +2
9.0%
Hapoel Afula -2
3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ironi Modi'in
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.47
0.47
0.40
0.13
0.53
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
0.80
0.00
0.60
0.40
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.35
0.30
0.70
0.30
0.00
0.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Afula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Afula
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.40
0.75
0.38
0.64
0.43
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.20
0.67
0.33
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.44
0.77
0.38
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Ironi Modi'in) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ironi Modi'in over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Modi'in over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Modi'in over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ironi Modi'in
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.60
0.60
0.60
0.40
0.60
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
0.90
0.80
1.00
0.40
0.80
vs Similar (20)
0.45
0.45
0.50
0.40
0.40
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Afula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Afula
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.87
0.31
0.75
0.71
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.60
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.44
0.92
0.23
0.69
0.67
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ironi Modi'in) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ironi Modi'in over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Modi'in over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Modi'in over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Afula over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ASH (23)
€4m
BY (26)
€3m
MBR (18)
€3m
HRL (19)
€3m
KYS (24)
€3m
MH (22)
€2m
HR (18)
€2m
HA (23)
€2m
KQ (26)
€2m
HKS (22)
€2m
HKS (14)
€2m
IM (21)
€1m
MKJ (18)
€1m
HA (11)
€1m
Ironi Modi'in and Hapoel Afula have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MBR (8)
€2m
HRL (8)
€1m
KYS (10)
€1m
ASH (8)
€1m
BY (9)
€1m
MH (8)
€1m
HKS (7)
€1m
HR (6)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
MKJ (11)
€0m
IM (7)
€0m
KQ (9)
€0m
HKS (4)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
Ironi Modi'in and Hapoel Afula have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BY (5)
€1m
ASH (6)
€1m
KQ (8)
€1m
MH (4)
€0m
HRL (5)
€0m
HKS (7)
€0m
HR (4)
€0m
KYS (6)
€0m
IM (6)
€0m
MBR (2)
€0m
HA (4)
€0m
MKJ (3)
€0m
HKS (2)
€0m
HA (0)
€0m
Ironi Modi'in and Hapoel Afula have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ASH (9)
€1m
BY (12)
€1m
MBR (8)
€1m
HR (8)
€1m
HKS (11)
€1m
HRL (6)
€1m
HA (10)
€1m
MH (10)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
KQ (9)
€1m
KYS (8)
€1m
HKS (5)
€0m
MKJ (4)
€0m
IM (8)
€0m
Ironi Modi'in and Hapoel Afula have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Israel: Liga Leumit 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Israel: Liga Leumit stats & trends →