This Liga Leumit match between Ironi Modi'in and Maccabi Herzliya is finely balanced, with the away side Maccabi Herzliya coming off a draw against Bnei Yehuda, while Ironi Modi'in are still reeling from a 0-2 defeat to Hapoel Ra'anana. The model's selection for the match is an away win, with a 36% probability of Maccabi Herzliya taking the three points. The expected total goals is 2.5, and the most likely score is 1-1, with a 14.2% probability. Ironi Modi'in have been struggling at home, scoring an average of 1.3 goals and conceding 1.1, while Maccabi Herzliya have been scoring 1.5 goals and conceding 1.0 when away against weaker opponents. The model suggests taking Under 3.5 with 76.2% probability and Over 1.5 with 72.1% probability. The probabilities for the match outcome are 34% for Ironi Modi'in, 30% for a draw, and 36% for Maccabi Herzliya.
Results analysis
The match saw Ironi Modi'in’s recent win streak end as Maccabi Herzliya secured a 0-2 away victory, matching the model’s predicted outcome. The model had picked an away win with a 36% probability, and it proved correct. The game stayed within the expected low-scoring range, with the most likely total of two goals materialising. All of the model’s selections performed as forecast: Home under 3.5 goals hit at 96.4%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 96.1%, Home under 2.5 goals hit at 87.4%, Away under 2.5 goals hit at 86.7%, Away +2 handicap hit at 84.8%, Under 3.5 hit at 76.2%, and Over 1.5 hit at 72.1%. The only miss was Home +2 handicap, which did not materialise.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ironi Modi'in win✗ Miss
34.4%
Avg Implied 29.7% · @ 3.04
Edge
+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.15
Pinnacle
3.11
Superbet
3.10
Bet365
3.10
1xBet
3.08
Draw✗ Miss
29.7%
Avg Implied 28.7% · @ 3.14
Edge
+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.30
Betfair
3.25
Marathonbet
3.20
1xBet
3.20
10Bet
3.20
Maccabi Herzliya win✓ Hit
35.9%
Avg Implied 41.6% · @ 2.17
Edge
-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
2.25
Dafabet
2.25
Betano
2.22
10Bet
2.20
William Hil
2.20
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ironi Modi'in
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.13
1.27
1.00
0.40
1.27
vs Stronger (11)
1.18
1.82
1.40
1.60
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (19)
0.63
0.74
1.20
0.70
0.00
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Herzliya) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maccabi Herzliya
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.37
1.40
1.47
1.53
1.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.45
1.38
1.40
1.47
1.50
1.29
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Ironi Modi'in) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.1%
@ 1.30+2.1%
Under 1.5
27.9%
@ 3.04-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.33
Betfair
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.30
Under
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.25
Pinnacle
3.12
10Bet
3.10
1xBet
3.04
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
45.1%
@ 1.96-1.8%
Under 2.5
54.9%
@ 1.73+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.02
Bet365
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.97
Under
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.78
Betfair
1.75
10Bet
1.75
1xBet
1.73
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.8%
@ 3.30-3.7%
Under 3.5
76.2%
@ 1.25+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.50
1xBet
3.34
Marathonbet
3.34
Under
Betfair
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.7%
@ 1.76+0.1%
No
48.3%
@ 1.88-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.91
Superbet
1.80
Betfair
1.80
1xBet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.76
No
Betfair
1.95
William Hil
1.95
10Bet
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Superbet
1.90
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%@ 5.72+6.7%
0-0
9.7%@ 8.34+4.6%
0-1
9.2%@ 6.71+2.9%
1-0
9.0%@ 8.23+3.8%
1-2
8.1%@ 8.14+2.9%
2-1
7.9%@ 9.93+3.6%
0-2 ✓
6.6%@ 9.37+2.1%
2-0
6.3%@ 14.25+3.3%
Ironi Modi'in goals ↓
Maccabi Herzliya goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.7%
9.2%
6.6%
2.8%
0.9%
1
9.0%
14%
8.1%
3.4%
1.1%
2
6.3%
7.9%
4.9%
2.1%
0.6%
3
2.6%
3.2%
2.0%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.8%
1.0%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ironi Modi'in goals (down), columns = Maccabi Herzliya goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maccabi Herzliya
1.68
Ashdod
1.64
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.58
Bnei Yehuda
1.54
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.51
Kiryat Yam SC
1.46
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.38
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.35
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.35
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.34
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.34
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.32
Hapoel Afula
1.22
Kafr Qasim
1.11
Ironi Modi'in
1.08
Hapoel Acre
1.08
Ironi Modi'in is 0.59 points worse than Maccabi Herzliya in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 1.68).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.81
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.78
Ashdod
1.66
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.60
Maccabi Herzliya
1.49
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.41
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.36
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.36
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.35
Kiryat Yam SC
1.30
Bnei Yehuda
1.24
Kafr Qasim
1.14
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.14
Hapoel Acre
1.08
Hapoel Afula
1.05
Ironi Modi'in
1.00
Ironi Modi'in is 0.49 goals worse than Maccabi Herzliya in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.49).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ashdod
1.11
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.16
Kiryat Yam SC
1.16
Bnei Yehuda
1.19
Maccabi Herzliya
1.19
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.19
Ironi Modi'in
1.27
Hapoel Acre
1.30
Kafr Qasim
1.32
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.35
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.36
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.36
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.46
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.57
Hapoel Afula
1.57
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.70
Ironi Modi'in is 0.08 goals worse than Maccabi Herzliya in terms of goals conceded per game (1.27 vs 1.19).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ironi Modi'in or Draw✗ Miss
64.1%
Avg Implied 58.1% · @ 1.57
Edge
+6.0%
34%
30%
36%
covers Ironi Modi'in + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.60
Betfair
1.57
William Hil
1.57
1xBet
1.56
Ironi Modi'in or Maccabi Herzliya✓ Hit
70.3%
Avg Implied 72.3% · @ 1.26
Edge
-2.0%
34%
30%
36%
covers Ironi Modi'in + Maccabi Herzliya
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.36
Superbet
1.30
Betano
1.30
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Draw or Maccabi Herzliya✓ Hit
65.6%
Avg Implied 69.6% · @ 1.31
Edge
-4.0%
34%
30%
36%
covers Draw + Maccabi Herzliya
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.35
BetVictor
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.30
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ironi Modi'in over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
70.6%
@ 1.40+4.5%
Under
29.4%
@ 2.72-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.41
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.39
Superbet
1.38
Under
Pinnacle
2.79
Betano
2.77
10Bet
2.75
1xBet
2.73
Superbet
2.67
Ironi Modi'in over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
34.6%
@ 2.81+1.9%
Under
65.4%
@ 1.36-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.00
Marathonbet
2.80
Superbet
2.75
10Bet
2.75
1xBet
2.75
Under
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Ironi Modi'in over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.6%
@ 6.86-0.7%
Under
87.4%
@ 1.05+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.85
Superbet
6.10
Under
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
Ironi Modi'in over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.6%
@ 13.00-3.6%
Under
96.4%
@ 1.01+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Under
Bet365
1.01
Maccabi Herzliya over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
71.5%
@ 1.26-1.6%
Under
28.5%
@ 3.42+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Under
1xBet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.40
Superbet
3.30
Maccabi Herzliya over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
35.7%
@ 2.26-5.2%
Under
64.3%
@ 1.56+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.38
Superbet
2.27
Pinnacle
2.25
Betano
2.25
1xBet
2.22
Under
Pinnacle
1.61
1xBet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
Betano
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Maccabi Herzliya over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.3%
@ 4.95-5.2%
Under
86.7%
@ 1.12+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.30
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.80
Superbet
4.70
Under
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Maccabi Herzliya over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.9%
@ 10.00-5.5%
Under
96.1%
@ 1.03+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Under
Bet365
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ironi Modi'in, so a minus line means Ironi Modi'in give that many goals of a start and Maccabi Herzliya receive them. At -1, Ironi Modi'in must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ironi Modi'in win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Maccabi Herzliya) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maccabi Herzliya
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.47
0.60
0.60
0.80
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.72
0.48
0.60
0.60
0.86
0.36
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Ironi Modi'in) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ironi Modi'in over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Modi'in over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Modi'in over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Herzliya over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Herzliya over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Herzliya over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ironi Modi'in
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.60
0.67
0.60
0.13
0.60
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
0.91
1.00
1.00
0.33
0.83
vs Similar (19)
0.26
0.42
0.50
0.40
0.00
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Herzliya) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maccabi Herzliya
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.90
0.80
0.87
0.73
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.72
0.90
0.80
0.87
0.64
0.93
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Ironi Modi'in) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ironi Modi'in over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Modi'in over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Modi'in over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Herzliya over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Herzliya over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Herzliya over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 3.5 goals
96.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
87.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
-
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
86.7%
1.12
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
-
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
84.8%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
83.8%
1.17
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
-
-
-
+8.4%
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
76.2%
1.25
Betfair
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.1%
1.30
Pinnacle
1.33
Betfair
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.30
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
71.5%
1.26
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
-
-1.6%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
70.6%
1.40
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.41
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.39
Superbet
1.38
+4.5%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
70.3%
1.26
William Hil
1.36
Superbet
1.30
Betano
1.30
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
-2.0%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ASH (23)
€4m
BY (26)
€3m
MBR (18)
€3m
HRL (19)
€3m
KYS (24)
€3m
MH (22)
€2m
HR (18)
€2m
HA (23)
€2m
KQ (26)
€2m
HKS (22)
€2m
HKS (14)
€2m
IM (21)
€1m
MKJ (18)
€1m
HA (11)
€1m
Ironi Modi'in's squad is €1m less valuable than Maccabi Herzliya's (€1m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MBR (8)
€2m
HRL (8)
€1m
KYS (10)
€1m
ASH (8)
€1m
BY (9)
€1m
MH (8)
€1m
HKS (7)
€1m
HR (6)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
MKJ (11)
€0m
IM (7)
€0m
KQ (9)
€0m
HKS (4)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
Ironi Modi'in and Maccabi Herzliya have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BY (5)
€1m
ASH (6)
€1m
KQ (8)
€1m
MH (4)
€0m
HRL (5)
€0m
HKS (7)
€0m
HR (4)
€0m
KYS (6)
€0m
IM (6)
€0m
MBR (2)
€0m
HA (4)
€0m
MKJ (3)
€0m
HKS (2)
€0m
HA (0)
€0m
Ironi Modi'in and Maccabi Herzliya have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ASH (9)
€1m
BY (12)
€1m
MBR (8)
€1m
HR (8)
€1m
HKS (11)
€1m
HRL (6)
€1m
HA (10)
€1m
MH (10)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
KQ (9)
€1m
KYS (8)
€1m
HKS (5)
€0m
MKJ (4)
€0m
IM (8)
€0m
Ironi Modi'in and Maccabi Herzliya have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Israel: Liga Leumit 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Israel: Liga Leumit stats & trends →